Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?boeingboy wrote:Ever since I heard about this crash - I've had this nagging feeling I suspect I know what happened.....for now I'm not going to post my thoughts as there is not enough evidense to speculate on what happened. Last thing I want is some news nut or rumors starting based on some feeling I have.
If my feeling turns out to be true - it is tragic and I feel for those others involved as it would be a nightmare senario.....it also would be a one off thing and not a sestemic fleet problem.
Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore
-
- Rank 2
- Posts: 73
- Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:08 pm
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
-
- Rank (9)
- Posts: 1311
- Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2014 11:14 pm
- Location: The Gulag Archipelago
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
Wish I didn't know now, what I didn't know then.
-
- Rank 2
- Posts: 62
- Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 7:11 pm
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
The TSB issues such safety advisories in a timely fashion all the time and as soon as they have the info available. They did so in the Bearskin metro accident for example, as with many others. I hardly think they need a reminder, much less a directive on how to carry out their jobs. Anything else you want is just to satisfy your own curiosity. Wait!Illya Kuryakin wrote:Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?
There seems to be two things people are focusing on Icing and a blown cargo door. Im not saying icing is not the cause, but these planes are not all bad when it comes to ice either...and if they did ice up I would expect a decrease in preformance first - rather than a sudden drop from radar. Going from 240kts and 1500"/min one min, to -5000'+ the next doesn't strike me as your typical icing problem. I've been in a metro with heavy ice before...so heavy the airframe had a hrad time keeping up with it and the props were coated when we landed...but she handled it just fine.
As for the cargo door - again...there has never been one lost so I dont understand the fixation. Even if the maintenance guys messed up royally and somehow put a wrong part in or messed up an insp (exteamly difficult to do) then the whole door is not going to come off, a section about 4 feet by 1 foot will fail and bend, but not seperate from the aircraft.
I would suspect that if it was a mechanical problem that caused it to go down - diving into steep mountain cliffs with no place to even ditch a Cessna 150 safely - the plane would look more like Germanwings - ....but accoding to TSB and the little pics and news we have, they are fairly large pieces. Fuse, tail, cockpit, wing with no ground scaring.
Draw from that what you will.
- Attachments
-
- wreckage-e1429224205591.jpg (97.66 KiB) Viewed 1622 times
-
- imageCAPMM3LD.jpg (114.19 KiB) Viewed 1950 times
-
- imageCAVMZAH2.jpg (101.08 KiB) Viewed 1955 times
Last edited by boeingboy on Thu Apr 16, 2015 7:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
-
- Rank 2
- Posts: 73
- Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 7:08 pm
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
So you throw three ideas of speculation out in the above quote..yet..you say..boeingboy wrote:
The only thing I can think of besides my fear of what happened.....would be a possible elevator cable failure or maybe pitch trim actuator failure with a severe pitch over, leading to breakup. However - I think it would be a first for this airplane type. Of course - no one has mentioned a bomb...so I might as well throw it in there.
What is your -When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.
- you might as well throw it out there seeings how you dont usemy fear of what happened
and have only beenrandom thoughts
.stating facts
Children at play for sure!
-
- Rank Moderator
- Posts: 5602
- Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 3:47 pm
- Location: Straight outta Dundarave...
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Simmer down, boys!
Two of our colleagues died tragically and unnecessarily the other day....don't lose sight of that in your battles to determine internet supremacy.
Two of our colleagues died tragically and unnecessarily the other day....don't lose sight of that in your battles to determine internet supremacy.
Say, what's that mountain goat doing up here in the mist?
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
I have this faint memory that I haven't always gotten on with Boeingboy, but I can't remember what it was over. I will say that the theory he speaks about is NOT an obscure theory. Right now, it seems consistent with the evidence that is known. He has his reasons for not bringing it up, and I'm sure they are good. It may prove not to be the cause, but they need to find all the pieces before we will have a clearer understanding.
I suppose you could make a case that BB is a little dismissive of some theories, but overall he makes, as others do, a good contribution to this discussion.
That is the left wing in the photo. Does anyone have a comment about the gear leg position? Gear extended during the descent for some reason, or just left that way by the impact sequence?
I suppose you could make a case that BB is a little dismissive of some theories, but overall he makes, as others do, a good contribution to this discussion.
That is the left wing in the photo. Does anyone have a comment about the gear leg position? Gear extended during the descent for some reason, or just left that way by the impact sequence?
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
- PointyEngine
- Rank 4
- Posts: 231
- Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:29 am
- Location: North of the Warmth
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Has there ever been a situation where a commuter style airline (e.g BE 1900 or SW4) where the main door (forward of the engine nacelle) has opened in flight and shed backwards?
On the SW3 (Metro 2) the front door weighs a huge amount, and is a structural part of the airframe. I imagine that would be fairly simple to gauge by the debris on the ground if this had occurred. If that thing came off, it would quickly go back throw the engine, and that amount of disturbance to the prop and nacelle would be catastrophic to flight characteristics.
Just throwing out another idea.
If that gear was intentionally put down, it may have been a result of a wing fire indication. There was a metro in QC where a fire caused structural collapse of the left wing. However, with no Mayday or no other indication of this, who knows...
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/SW4, ... IRE_LOC%29
On the SW3 (Metro 2) the front door weighs a huge amount, and is a structural part of the airframe. I imagine that would be fairly simple to gauge by the debris on the ground if this had occurred. If that thing came off, it would quickly go back throw the engine, and that amount of disturbance to the prop and nacelle would be catastrophic to flight characteristics.
Just throwing out another idea.
If that gear was intentionally put down, it may have been a result of a wing fire indication. There was a metro in QC where a fire caused structural collapse of the left wing. However, with no Mayday or no other indication of this, who knows...
http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/SW4, ... IRE_LOC%29
-
- Rank 11
- Posts: 3074
- Joined: Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:49 am
- Location: Always moving
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
For those of us who do not understand bureaucratic bafflegab what exactly is the time line of "" in a timely fashion ""?The TSB issues such safety advisories in a timely fashion all the time and as soon as they have the info available.
The most difficult thing about flying is knowing when to say no.
After over a half a century of flying I can not remember even one trip that I refused to do that resulted in someone getting killed because of my decision not to fly.
After over a half a century of flying I can not remember even one trip that I refused to do that resulted in someone getting killed because of my decision not to fly.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Metros have a Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer similar to that of the Alaska Airlines MD-83 that crashed off the coast of San Francisco in 2000.
About a year or two after that accident, a Carson AME was using a push broom to brush a light dusting of snow off of a Metro that spent the night in YLW. After he climbed up the ladder and started on the tail, he gave about 2 sweeps with the broom and the entire stab came detached from the actuator and just flopped around freely on the tail. You can only imagine what would have happened if this would have come apart in flight.
Just a speculation. I'm sure Carson's maintenance program is all above board but these are old cargo airplanes that have been ridden hard and sometimes things fail.
About a year or two after that accident, a Carson AME was using a push broom to brush a light dusting of snow off of a Metro that spent the night in YLW. After he climbed up the ladder and started on the tail, he gave about 2 sweeps with the broom and the entire stab came detached from the actuator and just flopped around freely on the tail. You can only imagine what would have happened if this would have come apart in flight.
Just a speculation. I'm sure Carson's maintenance program is all above board but these are old cargo airplanes that have been ridden hard and sometimes things fail.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
TSB announcement says may be in flight break up:
http://m.news1130.com/2015/04/16/plane- ... light-tsb/
http://m.news1130.com/2015/04/16/plane- ... light-tsb/
-
- Rank 11
- Posts: 4562
- Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 2:33 am
- Location: YYC 230 degree radial at about 10 DME
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
JestWet and rsandor's posts are absolutely fucking terrifying. The sum of all fears.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
I don't. 15000fpm = 148 knots.cncpc wrote:You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
Yep, true that. It just seemed like such a big number.gimmepars wrote:I don't. 15000fpm = 148 knots.cncpc wrote:You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
Good judgment comes from experience. Experience often comes from bad judgment.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
From TSB today...
- Attachments
-
- wreckage-e1429224205591.jpg (97.66 KiB) Viewed 2605 times
-
- wreckage1.jpg (69.15 KiB) Viewed 2605 times
- Jack Klumpus
- Rank 5
- Posts: 379
- Joined: Fri Jan 29, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: In a van down by the river.
Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS
http://www.m2.com/m2/web/story.php/1998 ... 390064BAE0
Bearskin pilots cited for airmanship by pilots' union
WASHINGTON, DC -- Two Bearskin Airlines pilots who
safely landed their aircraft after its horizontal
stabilizer actuator failed on a flight to Winnipeg
last August have been awarded the Superior Airmanship
award from the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA).
ALPA President J. Randolph Babbitt recognized the
efforts of Captain Geoffrey Wheatstone and First
Officer Steve Preston at the Association's annual Air
Safety Awards banquet August 19th.
Captain Wheatstone and First Officer Preston were in
command of Metro Flight JV317 en route from Red Lake
to Winnipeg, Manitoba when the horizontal stabilizer
actuator failed, causing the aircraft to enter a
3.5g, 52-degree climb and stall at 6700 feet. After a
series of climbs and dives by the aircraft, Captain
Wheatstone and First Officer Preston manually
stabilized the plane at 6000 feet, and landed with
the First Officer using the force of both his feet
and arms on the control column to maintain pitch
control and the Captain controlling the ailerons.
According to ALPA Executive Vice President John
Dunlop, "Geoff Wheatstone and Steve Preston exhibited
extraordinary skill, ingenuity, and resource
management in dealing with [their aircraft's] sudden,
likely fatal, loss of control."
The Air Line Pilots Association, International, is
the international labor union representing most
commercial airline pilots, and is the industry's
leading safety advocate. Its 50,000 members represent
50 carriers in the U.S. and Canada.
For further information, please contact:
John Mazor Tel: +1 703 481-4440
Published in M2 PressWIRE on Wednesday, 26 August 1998
Copyright (C) 2015, M2 Communications Ltd.
Other Latest Headlines
Bearskin pilots cited for airmanship by pilots' union
WASHINGTON, DC -- Two Bearskin Airlines pilots who
safely landed their aircraft after its horizontal
stabilizer actuator failed on a flight to Winnipeg
last August have been awarded the Superior Airmanship
award from the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA).
ALPA President J. Randolph Babbitt recognized the
efforts of Captain Geoffrey Wheatstone and First
Officer Steve Preston at the Association's annual Air
Safety Awards banquet August 19th.
Captain Wheatstone and First Officer Preston were in
command of Metro Flight JV317 en route from Red Lake
to Winnipeg, Manitoba when the horizontal stabilizer
actuator failed, causing the aircraft to enter a
3.5g, 52-degree climb and stall at 6700 feet. After a
series of climbs and dives by the aircraft, Captain
Wheatstone and First Officer Preston manually
stabilized the plane at 6000 feet, and landed with
the First Officer using the force of both his feet
and arms on the control column to maintain pitch
control and the Captain controlling the ailerons.
According to ALPA Executive Vice President John
Dunlop, "Geoff Wheatstone and Steve Preston exhibited
extraordinary skill, ingenuity, and resource
management in dealing with [their aircraft's] sudden,
likely fatal, loss of control."
The Air Line Pilots Association, International, is
the international labor union representing most
commercial airline pilots, and is the industry's
leading safety advocate. Its 50,000 members represent
50 carriers in the U.S. and Canada.
For further information, please contact:
John Mazor Tel: +1 703 481-4440
Published in M2 PressWIRE on Wednesday, 26 August 1998
Copyright (C) 2015, M2 Communications Ltd.
Other Latest Headlines
When I retire, I’ll miss the clowns, not the circus.