Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

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magic wand
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by magic wand »

boeingboy wrote:Ever since I heard about this crash - I've had this nagging feeling I suspect I know what happened.....for now I'm not going to post my thoughts as there is not enough evidense to speculate on what happened. Last thing I want is some news nut or rumors starting based on some feeling I have.

If my feeling turns out to be true - it is tragic and I feel for those others involved as it would be a nightmare senario.....it also would be a one off thing and not a sestemic fleet problem.
Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?
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Illya Kuryakin
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Illya Kuryakin »

Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
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CFM Symphony
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by CFM Symphony »

Illya Kuryakin wrote:Note to TSB
If this was a catastrophic structural failure there are operators who need to know quickly.
Otherwise, carry on.
Thoughts with everybody involved.
Illya
The TSB issues such safety advisories in a timely fashion all the time and as soon as they have the info available. They did so in the Bearskin metro accident for example, as with many others. I hardly think they need a reminder, much less a directive on how to carry out their jobs. Anything else you want is just to satisfy your own curiosity. Wait!
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boeingboy
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy »

Hey boeingboy - you seem to be shooting down everyone's comments in regards to possible causes..yet you have your own obscure theory that you don't want to disclose. WTF?
When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.

There seems to be two things people are focusing on Icing and a blown cargo door. Im not saying icing is not the cause, but these planes are not all bad when it comes to ice either...and if they did ice up I would expect a decrease in preformance first - rather than a sudden drop from radar. Going from 240kts and 1500"/min one min, to -5000'+ the next doesn't strike me as your typical icing problem. I've been in a metro with heavy ice before...so heavy the airframe had a hrad time keeping up with it and the props were coated when we landed...but she handled it just fine.

As for the cargo door - again...there has never been one lost so I dont understand the fixation. Even if the maintenance guys messed up royally and somehow put a wrong part in or messed up an insp (exteamly difficult to do) then the whole door is not going to come off, a section about 4 feet by 1 foot will fail and bend, but not seperate from the aircraft.

I would suspect that if it was a mechanical problem that caused it to go down - diving into steep mountain cliffs with no place to even ditch a Cessna 150 safely - the plane would look more like Germanwings - ....but accoding to TSB and the little pics and news we have, they are fairly large pieces. Fuse, tail, cockpit, wing with no ground scaring.

Draw from that what you will.
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magic wand
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by magic wand »

boeingboy wrote:
The only thing I can think of besides my fear of what happened.....would be a possible elevator cable failure or maybe pitch trim actuator failure with a severe pitch over, leading to breakup. However - I think it would be a first for this airplane type. Of course - no one has mentioned a bomb...so I might as well throw it in there.
So you throw three ideas of speculation out in the above quote..yet..you say..
When I engage in speculation - it is informed speculation with regards to the available evidence. It's not radom thoughts. There is simply not enough evidence yet to support anything. Those out there who throw out ideas are fine - but I've simply been stating facts to those ideas. If you want to concider that as shooting people down fine.
What is your -
my fear of what happened
- you might as well throw it out there seeings how you dont use
random thoughts
and have only been
stating facts
.


Children at play for sure!
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by North Shore »

Simmer down, boys!
Two of our colleagues died tragically and unnecessarily the other day....don't lose sight of that in your battles to determine internet supremacy.
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cncpc
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cncpc »

I have this faint memory that I haven't always gotten on with Boeingboy, but I can't remember what it was over. I will say that the theory he speaks about is NOT an obscure theory. Right now, it seems consistent with the evidence that is known. He has his reasons for not bringing it up, and I'm sure they are good. It may prove not to be the cause, but they need to find all the pieces before we will have a clearer understanding.

I suppose you could make a case that BB is a little dismissive of some theories, but overall he makes, as others do, a good contribution to this discussion.

That is the left wing in the photo. Does anyone have a comment about the gear leg position? Gear extended during the descent for some reason, or just left that way by the impact sequence?
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PointyEngine
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by PointyEngine »

Has there ever been a situation where a commuter style airline (e.g BE 1900 or SW4) where the main door (forward of the engine nacelle) has opened in flight and shed backwards?

On the SW3 (Metro 2) the front door weighs a huge amount, and is a structural part of the airframe. I imagine that would be fairly simple to gauge by the debris on the ground if this had occurred. If that thing came off, it would quickly go back throw the engine, and that amount of disturbance to the prop and nacelle would be catastrophic to flight characteristics.

Just throwing out another idea.

If that gear was intentionally put down, it may have been a result of a wing fire indication. There was a metro in QC where a fire caused structural collapse of the left wing. However, with no Mayday or no other indication of this, who knows...

http://www.skybrary.aero/index.php/SW4, ... IRE_LOC%29
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Chuck Ellsworth »

The TSB issues such safety advisories in a timely fashion all the time and as soon as they have the info available.
For those of us who do not understand bureaucratic bafflegab what exactly is the time line of "" in a timely fashion ""?
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by JestWet »

Metros have a Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer similar to that of the Alaska Airlines MD-83 that crashed off the coast of San Francisco in 2000.
About a year or two after that accident, a Carson AME was using a push broom to brush a light dusting of snow off of a Metro that spent the night in YLW. After he climbed up the ladder and started on the tail, he gave about 2 sweeps with the broom and the entire stab came detached from the actuator and just flopped around freely on the tail. You can only imagine what would have happened if this would have come apart in flight.

Just a speculation. I'm sure Carson's maintenance program is all above board but these are old cargo airplanes that have been ridden hard and sometimes things fail.
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rsandor
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by rsandor »

TSB announcement says may be in flight break up:

http://m.news1130.com/2015/04/16/plane- ... light-tsb/
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by co-joe »

JestWet and rsandor's posts are absolutely fucking terrifying. The sum of all fears.
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boeingboy
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy »

Agreed.
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gimmepars
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by gimmepars »

TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
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cncpc
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cncpc »

gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by gimmepars »

cncpc wrote:
gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.
I don't. 15000fpm = 148 knots.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by cncpc »

gimmepars wrote:
cncpc wrote:
gimmepars wrote:TSB says this aircraft dropped 1500m in 20 seconds, which works out to a decent rate of just shy of 15,000fpm.
You'd think it would have to be at full power and vertical to do that.
I don't. 15000fpm = 148 knots.
Yep, true that. It just seemed like such a big number.
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by boeingboy »

From TSB today...
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by awitzke »

:(
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Re: Overdue Cargo Airplane Bound for CYXS

Post by Jack Klumpus »

http://www.m2.com/m2/web/story.php/1998 ... 390064BAE0

Bearskin pilots cited for airmanship by pilots' union

WASHINGTON, DC -- Two Bearskin Airlines pilots who
safely landed their aircraft after its horizontal

stabilizer actuator failed on a flight to Winnipeg

last August have been awarded the Superior Airmanship

award from the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA).

ALPA President J. Randolph Babbitt recognized the

efforts of Captain Geoffrey Wheatstone and First

Officer Steve Preston at the Association's annual Air

Safety Awards banquet August 19th.

Captain Wheatstone and First Officer Preston were in

command of Metro Flight JV317 en route from Red Lake

to Winnipeg, Manitoba when the horizontal stabilizer

actuator failed, causing the aircraft to enter a

3.5g, 52-degree climb and stall at 6700 feet. After a

series of climbs and dives by the aircraft, Captain

Wheatstone and First Officer Preston manually

stabilized the plane at 6000 feet, and landed with

the First Officer using the force of both his feet

and arms on the control column to maintain pitch

control and the Captain controlling the ailerons.

According to ALPA Executive Vice President John

Dunlop, "Geoff Wheatstone and Steve Preston exhibited

extraordinary skill, ingenuity, and resource

management in dealing with [their aircraft's] sudden,

likely fatal, loss of control."

The Air Line Pilots Association, International, is

the international labor union representing most

commercial airline pilots, and is the industry's

leading safety advocate. Its 50,000 members represent

50 carriers in the U.S. and Canada.



For further information, please contact:
John Mazor Tel: +1 703 481-4440

Published in M2 PressWIRE on Wednesday, 26 August 1998
Copyright (C) 2015, M2 Communications Ltd.

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