Wasaya caravan missing

[Illya Kuryakin]

The management has changed since the accident .. fyi

But has the "culture"?

I run into Wasaya pilots pretty much every day. Without exception, they are courteous, and professional. I have never had an issue with any of them. I cancel to let them out, widen my approaches for them, and they do the same for me. Most of them either know me, or know who I am. They are a great bunch of guys and gals.
But....the management teams in the past....OMG!
Illya.

[Cat Driver]

They are a different culture, accountability is not found there.

[phillyfan]

The deceased pilot's wife, was my kids teacher and has recently changed her name back to her Maiden name.

I have known several pilots over the years who have died. I see the effect that these things have. I think back to those incidents every time I see a dead pilots, grown children, or a pilot's widow, dating a new guy.

I have a picture in my airplane of my 3 kids. That picture reminds me that if I plow into the ground, those lives will go on. They will have experiences that I will never see and undoubtedly, my wife will find new love.

The old cliche lives on. Know when to say "No".

That being said, It still shocks me that no lawsuit was initiated.

[lownslow]

What am I missing here? To be clear this accident was horrible and I distinctly remember myself and my coworkers, most of us having known Nick, biting our nails all day waiting for news, but we're talking about an airplane that didn't just not have sufficient de-icing/anti-icing equipment it was actually placarded as not certified for flight into known icing. Then it was flown into known icing.

What happened to the crew who turned around and came back? Did they lose their jobs? Would they have if management didn't have their hands so full later that day?

[Illya Kuryakin]

What am I missing here? To be clear this accident was horrible and I distinctly remember myself and my coworkers, most of us having known Nick, biting our nails all day waiting for news, but we're talking about an airplane that didn't just not have sufficient de-icing/anti-icing equipment it was actually placarded as not certified for flight into known icing. Then it was flown into known icing.

What happened to the crew who turned around and came back? Did they lose their jobs? Would they have if management didn't have their hands so full later that day?

The management knew the aircraft and its limitations, and yet they loaded it up for a trip to Angling Lake, knowing the weather was not conducive to a successful outcome.
I didn’t know Nick, but I know the weather he was dealing with. I know the pressure he was dealing with. And, I know Caravans. A wrongful death suit should have been filed.
Illya

[Meatservo]

I find myself curious about who the base manager was at the time, and how great was his influence over the decision-making of the younger pilots. I have a feeling I know who it was, and I have a feeling his attitude wasn’t a great help in situations like these. I’m trying not to slander anyone here, but if it’s the guy I am thinking of, I hope he isn’t working in aviation anymore. The guy I’m thinking about was a young local yokel, and I worked with him, but not for him, at his previous job. Again, if it’s the guy I’m thinking of, he had neither the education nor the maturity nor the sense of moral responsibility needed to be a good choice for that position. So basically your average aviation manager.

[pdw]

Know when to say "No".

They may not have known exactly what they were getting into (based on previous experience success).

what happened to the other

You mean "128" .. the returned plane ?
The parameters of 128's flight are used for the investigation (TSB Report), so the person at the helm of this aircraft has played a very important part in establishing some investigative facts for this tragedy.

IMO this investigation could further use 128 to establish accurate airspeed at "event 1" (ie: doublecheck it), just in case there is an error there. For example, what is the IAS number (vs its groundspeed) at beginning of upset ... seeing "128" had claimed "5-10kts" airspeed drop by 4400ft where it turned-around 200ft before 127's 4600ft altitude at "event 1". It's possible "127" ("Nick") may have been losing more than 128's "5-10" in those extra 200ft of altitude if that loss was enhanced (ie: by any type of shear above 4400) just after "127's increase in climb rate"(report fact at ~4400)..which WAS immediately before "event 1" (above the "4400ft").

It appears via surface anaysis, that the LO on Superior ("991" on GFA) turns out deeper / stronger than advertised (30-40kts N-winds across Superior enhanced by 6degree water temps), 986hPa, so that northerly components are also stronger up there as far north as YPL. How are these CAS numbers in the report arrived at ?

[justwork]

Know when to say "No".

They may not have known exactly what they were getting into (based on previous experience success).

what happened to the other

You mean "128" .. the returned plane ?
The parameters of 128's flight are used for the investigation (TSB Report), so the person at the helm of this aircraft has played a very important part in establishing some investigative facts for this tragedy.

IMO this investigation could further use 128 to establish accurate airspeed at "event 1" (ie: doublecheck it), just in case there is an error there. For example, what is the IAS number (vs its groundspeed) at beginning of upset ... seeing "128" had claimed "5-10kts" airspeed drop by 4400ft where it turned-around 200ft before 127's 4600ft altitude at "event 1". It's possible "127" ("Nick") may have been losing more than 128's "5-10" in those extra 200ft of altitude if that loss was enhanced (ie: by any type of shear above 4400) just after "127's increase in climb rate"(report fact at ~4400)..which WAS immediately before "event 1" (above the "4400ft").

It appears via surface anaysis, that the LO on Superior ("991" on GFA) turns out deeper / stronger than advertised (30-40kts N-winds across Superior enhanced by 6degree water temps), 986hPa, so that northerly components are also stronger up there as far north as YPL. How are these CAS numbers in the report arrived at ?

Why is it always wind? Seriously, I'm curious. Always. A plane could fly into the side of a barn and you'll be talking about wind or "shear". Why?

[pdw]

A plane could fly into the side of a barn ...

It's not a CFIT like that, if control is long lost at altitude, .. where this case the pilot seems to be convinced everything was right from his own perspective at the time .. right from getting up in the early morning up to getting into the trouble mid-morning .. long after takeoff.

[justwork]

A plane could fly into the side of a barn ...

It's not a CFIT like that, if control is long lost at altitude, .. where this case the pilot seems to be convinced everything was right from his own perspective at the time .. right from getting up in the early morning up to getting into the trouble mid-morning .. long after takeoff.

You don't get what I'm saying. I'm saying no matter what happens you always blame wind or shear. It's actually insane.

PDW = Probably Da Wind.

[Rupert_Pupkin]

I find myself curious about who the base manager was at the time, and how great was his influence over the decision-making of the younger pilots. I have a feeling I know who it was, and I have a feeling his attitude wasn’t a great help in situations like these. I’m trying not to slander anyone here, but if it’s the guy I am thinking of, I hope he isn’t working in aviation anymore. The guy I’m thinking about was a young local yokel, and I worked with him, but not for him, at his previous job. Again, if it’s the guy I’m thinking of, he had neither the education nor the maturity nor the sense of moral responsibility needed to be a good choice for that position. So basically your average aviation manager.

I'm pretty sure the person making the decisions at the time was a guy with the initials DM who everyone hated and pushed people to fly in anything. When I was there we never crossed paths in that sense. Not sure how he sleeps at night now.

[lownslow]

You don't get what I'm saying. I'm saying no matter what happens you always blame wind or shear. It's actually insane.

PDW = Probably Da Wind.

I'm not going to look up the thread now but I think he bent an airplane once and since it could not possibly have been caused by a poorly made decision it must have been some invisible force. Since accident investigations rarely cite ghosts as a cause the wind was the next best answer.

[Meatservo]

I’m actually pretty sure PDW is an AI of some kind. I’m not sure he passes the Turing test, since at least one of us (me) is not fully convinced it’s a human making those posts.

[pdw]

You don't get what I'm saying.

You're coming through loud and clear, with what you are suggesting. Yet is not as simple as an icing encounter in perfectly smooth air; here quite suddenly won't hold altitude right after the positive-change in climbrate (from TSB Report, just before "event 1") on account of the light increased performance shear up there, followed by opposite/downward vertical speed increase mainly if speed was permitted to slow under these (given) icing circumstances and with-in those moments of temporarily increased climbrate (report).

[rookiepilot]

You don't get what I'm saying.

You're coming through loud and clear, with what you are suggesting. Yet is not as simple as an icing encounter in perfectly smooth air; here quite suddenly won't hold altitude right after the positive-change in climbrate (from TSB Report, just before "event 1") on account of the light increased performance shear up there, followed by opposite/downward vertical speed increase mainly if speed was permitted to slow under these (given) icing circumstances and with-in those moments of temporarily increased climbrate (report).

PDW,

You ever flown into icing? It's not pleasant.

[goingnowherefast]

"Event 1" is a pretty clear stall and into incipient stage of a spin, but initially recovered. Climb rate is increased at the cost of airspeed, airfoil is contaminated, so stalls at an (unexpected) higher than usual airspeed. There was no "shear" at 4500', that's over 3000' AGL. At best there was light turbulence due to stratocumulus clouds.

[pdw]

A steep pressure gradient to the 986hPa, southeast from YPL into southeast Lake Superior. The pirep of "ragged stratus" is an indicator of the resulting increased aircurrents above the "stratocumulus" moving along this pattern.

"Event 1" is a pretty clear stall and into incipient stage of a spin, but initially recovered.

If I've interpreted right, the report stated "not sure" (not 100% understood) whether that was the 'intentional turn' or not.

The report doesn't seem to want to judge "not recoverable" for certain during "event 2", so that leaves open that it's also possible the flight was stable enough just before "event 1" .. where then having experienced the bleedoff-tendency (short period of decline during slight descent rate) ... immediately following the stiffer 'extra climbrate' (confirmed in the report).

Climb rate is increased at the cost of airspeed, airfoil is contaminated, so stalls at an (unexpected) higher than usual airspeed.

Yes.
______________

At best there was light turbulence due to stratocumulus clouds.

With the stratus, there is likely nothing convective nor sharply-advective up there (report concludes no moderate nor severe turbulence) in that climb-through setting; "light turbulence" is accurate there, even when more-sharply entering/exiting a different / faster air moving above this cloud.

[Sidebar]

The lesson here is that the airplane was severely contaminated with ice. That's why it stalled.

If you fly a Caravan and you encounter ice, don't continue flight in the icing! If there's icing forecast, don't depart.

All the discussion of wind shear and turbulence is not relevant. It was the decision to depart and then to continue flight in icing that caused this flight to crash.

As others have said, the company managers were a major contributing factor.

[MortyBubba]

I understand that the caravan was not certified for flight into known icing and we keep mentioning that. I am curious how do you file a VFR flight plan at 5500 feet when to me it looks like a strictly IFR day?

[spongebob]

I understand that the caravan was not certified for flight into known icing and we keep mentioning that. I am curious how do you file a VFR flight plan at 5500 feet when to me it looks like a strictly IFR day?

No filing necessary if you are on a flight itinerary and in uncontrolled airspace. Nobody outside the company would know in that case of what the plan for the flight was.