Citation down North of Kelowna

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godsrcrazy
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by godsrcrazy »

trey kule wrote:
I don't see it that way at all. We want to discuss what could have caused a crash. It helps us be safer pilots. Agree to disagree.
How does that work? You do not know what was the cause of this accident. Just throwing out whatever idea pops into your head. Share with us, what you have learned.

Four people died in this accident. Are people here so insensitive that they really can not wait to speculate? There are few new causes of accidents. Do people really need that instant gratification?
Like the ghouls that gather at accident sites.

Why don't we all just sit back for a bit to allow for some resprct before tossing out any thought we have,...on the rationalization we somehow will be safer pilots as a result.

Yes accident reports take a year or so to come out. So what? Lots of old accident reports one can look at that are relevant.

There are some people here who do look at the old reports to see if we can gleam anything from them.

Couldn't agree more.
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Broken Slinky
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by Broken Slinky »

What's required for fuel management in a Citation? Sounds like the pilot had a full day. Being overly tired and ran the engines dry? Before he could get them fuel again, it hit the ground?
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pdw
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by pdw »

Saxub wrote:Could a dual engine flame out turn this aircraft into a -2200ft/min glider? Perhaps dual engine failure, ingestion of birds etc.? Lots of migratory bird activity in Canada recently. Even at altitudes above 5000'.
The second-last radar hit spans from 7000' on-the-way to ~ 8000' then down to 4800 in that radar-minute (9:35:12 to 9:36:12/ flighaware data) which works out to 4200' for total climb/descent there, not actually the "-2200"/min. The data shows speed via radar-pickup/calculation by 'minute' average, so the 2/3 minute from "8000' to that 4800' mark at 9:36:12 (3200' in ~40sec / ~ -4000'per min) is more than "120kts" (the radar measures kts only in horizontal plane); the extra ascent/descent distance has to be factored there in between those two hits.
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Last edited by pdw on Mon Oct 17, 2016 6:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mick G
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by Mick G »

Why even have Pitot Heat as an option to switch on and off? Why not have it constantly on regardless of weather? Seems a safety design flaw.....
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Anthropomorphized
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by Anthropomorphized »

Mick G wrote:Why even have Pitot Heat as an option to switch on and off? Why not have it constantly on regardless of weather? Seems a safety design flaw.....
Because of the time limit of having them on, on the ground. So they don't burn up.


It is always turned on just before takeoff regardless of weather.
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AuxBatOn
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by AuxBatOn »

Mick G wrote:Why even have Pitot Heat as an option to switch on and off? Why not have it constantly on regardless of weather? Seems a safety design flaw.....
Sometimes, you want to have the option to shut it off (load shed a bus for example).

Also, if left ON on the ground, it will mess with the ADC as the ADC uses corections based on TAT from the TAT probe. It has some correction factor taking into account the jeat added by the probe heat when at flying speed and reasonable probe temperature. If your probe is much hotter than ambiant air and you are at the edge of the flying enveloppe where the heat and temperature models of the probe are less accurate, it will induce wffpr in your calibrated parameters and even trigger and ADC failure in some cases.
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teacher
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by teacher »

trey kule wrote:
I don't see it that way at all. We want to discuss what could have caused a crash. It helps us be safer pilots. Agree to disagree.
How does that work? You do not know what was the cause of this accident. Just throwing out whatever idea pops into your head. Share with us, what you have learned.

Four people died in this accident. Are people here so insensitive that they really can not wait to speculate? There are few new causes of accidents. Do people really need that instant gratification?
Like the ghouls that gather at accident sites.

Why don't we all just sit back for a bit to allow for some resprct before tossing out any thought we have,...on the rationalization we somehow will be safer pilots as a result.

Yes accident reports take a year or so to come out. So what? Lots of old accident reports one can look at that are relevant.

There are some people here who do look at the old reports to see if we can gleam anything from them.
Couldn't DISAGREE more. RESPECTFUL speculation gets a person thinking about possible situations and remedies BEFORE they might encounter it themselves. Going back to old reports and waiting for the official investigation might be too late to save someone's life.

Assigning blame is one thing, an educated discussion and thoughtful speculation is something different.
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co-joe
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by co-joe »

Mick G wrote:Why even have Pitot Heat as an option to switch on and off? Why not have it constantly on regardless of weather? Seems a safety design flaw.....
Could easily put the pitot heat on one of the landing gear squat switch'es control circuit with an override switch in case you want to disable it. No burnt out element, no messed up emf on the ground...

Now, it's highly probably that pitot heat had nothing to do with the accident, but here we are talking about the system, why it works the way it does, and what adverse effects forgetting it could cause. The TSB report in a year might not mention pitot heat if some other factor takes over as the leading cause. We are applying the rule of intensity to learning ie. the more intense an event is, the more likely we are to remember the lesson.

Crew fatigue. If he really was 16 hours into his day flying single pilot in a high performance jet, in the mountains, in poor wx, holy mackerel, we need to talk about that! And we most certainly need to learn from that! That's not a small contributory factor, and the outcome is tragic. We grieve, but we must talk about it, and we must learn from it.
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CpnCrunch
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by CpnCrunch »

co-joe wrote: Could easily put the pitot heat on one of the landing gear squat switch'es control circuit with an override switch in case you want to disable it. No burnt out element, no messed up emf on the ground...
The new Hondajet automatically turns on the pitot heat when you advance the throttles for takeoff. It also automatically activates all deicing systems, except for engine deicing.
Crew fatigue. If he really was 16 hours into his day flying single pilot in a high performance jet, in the mountains, in poor wx, holy mackerel, we need to talk about that! And we most certainly need to learn from that! That's not a small contributory factor, and the outcome is tragic. We grieve, but we must talk about it, and we must learn from it.
They flew from from YBW in the morning, and then they flew back in the evening. Given the plane was privately owned by a few partners, it's probably unlikely that it flew anywhere else in-between.
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MrWings
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by MrWings »

teacher wrote:Couldn't DISAGREE more. RESPECTFUL speculation gets a person thinking about possible situations and remedies BEFORE they might encounter it themselves. Going back to old reports and waiting for the official investigation might be too late to save someone's life.

Assigning blame is one thing, an educated discussion and thoughtful speculation is something different.
This is the camp I'm in as well. With these incidents, it always seems to be the people that knew the pilot have the most problem with speculation. I can sympathize.

Anyway, here is some more speculation: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/j ... -1.3808350
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Mick G
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by Mick G »

Birds seem unlikely at 8000, but even if so, communication would normally be possible. If the pilot was in fact incapacitated and the plane entered a stall, and if none of the people on board had flight training, but were able to reach the cockpit, it would only be natural to pull back the stick rather than push forward and apply power.
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pdw
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by pdw »

From rotation to accident-site is four and a half minutes according to flightaware data.

Reading the Gfa s (previous page link) shows convergence of two systems into southern BC during that evening.

The 13/10/2016-1200Z Gfa shows a 983mb Lo approx 500mi NW of Vancouver, yet for 1800Z on the 13th is in the same place at 980mb. Then for the next Gfa .. 14/10/2016-0000Z a 2nd Lo has popped up 200mi SW of Vancouver showing by the time of the 0600Z Gfa (1.5 hours after the accident) that those two separate lo's had converged into one deep LO in south eastern BC at a given pressure of 969mb.

This accident sequence looks to be initiating approximately at the height of where this new LO's warmfront was located just into/across southern BC at the time. What can the upper winds be doing at its front above Kelowna when just to the west (closer to the LO's centre) the warm/moistureladen winds are 45kts from a southerly direction ?
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cncpc
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by cncpc »

MrWings wrote:
teacher wrote:Couldn't DISAGREE more. RESPECTFUL speculation gets a person thinking about possible situations and remedies BEFORE they might encounter it themselves. Going back to old reports and waiting for the official investigation might be too late to save someone's life.

Assigning blame is one thing, an educated discussion and thoughtful speculation is something different.
This is the camp I'm in as well. With these incidents, it always seems to be the people that knew the pilot have the most problem with speculation. I can sympathize.

Anyway, here is some more speculation: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/j ... -1.3808350
That was a worthwhile article. I doubt very much the TSB is going to "...find out easily".
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cncpc
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by cncpc »

Mick G wrote:Birds seem unlikely at 8000, but even if so, communication would normally be possible. If the pilot was in fact incapacitated and the plane entered a stall, and if none of the people on board had flight training, but were able to reach the cockpit, it would only be natural to pull back the stick rather than push forward and apply power.
If it's on autopilot, and the incapacitated pilot doesn't pitch forward, it climbs on track to the preset altitude and on, depending on the GPS, without incident.

Were any of the passengers pilots?
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cncpc
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by cncpc »

With these incidents, it always seems to be the people that knew the pilot have the most problem with speculation. I can sympathize.
It seems that way. Only natural.
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trey kule
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by trey kule »

If it is me being referred to, or implied, that I know anyone here, that is another of those " throw it out there comments". I don't.

If people really wanted to learn from accidents, they would pull out old ones from a few years back. The causes of accidents have not changed much for the most part, and with the TSB/TC reports finalized, some actual facts that can be looked at. Is this the only way pilots can learn that they cant taxi around with pitot heat on? That they should not fly in icing conditions, or when fatigued..
Intensity? Class 4 gobbly-speak. It has to be relevant as well.

What I object to is the total lack of respect for people and their families under the guise that we need to learn about it, right now. Without the facts. And , because we say how sad it was, or offer our condolences, we can then leap to wild speculation and, if that implies the crew or pilot screwed up....who cares, right. ? After all, as long as we post "respectfully" somewhere, we can then say whatever pops into our head. Its all about learning.

The simple truth is we like to gossip. Lets not try to rationalize that with any higher objective.
Kind of like staring into the ambulance after a car crash.. Respectfully, of course. Becuase we can learn so much more that way.

It is really to bad , that after a tragic accident like this, some of you could not witness the effect your words have on those left behind. And where the pilot or crew is completely blameless, how hurtful those words are...but...hey...you were just speculating right? Had to do it quicly to save lives...no need to wait for facts..
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BTD
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by BTD »

:roll:
trey kule wrote: It has to be relevant as well.
All educated discussion of accident causes is relevant to this forum.

I recall after the colgan accident tail plane icing was all the rage. Turns out it had nothing to do with the accident, but it was a good discussion and review nonetheless.

As long as we in the industry don't make it personal and follow up with the report to look at the actual cause.
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RatherBeFlying
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by RatherBeFlying »

Human nature is that we pay serious attention shortly after an accident. Two years or so later the report lands in the file drawer and often just stays there.

The NTSB opens a public docket and posts evidence as it arrives. Within weeks or months, there's usually a pretty good understanding of the the accident factors based on on evidence.

Up here accident data tends to be kept under the covers until publication of the report. Speculation of every sort of possibility is the natural outcome when evidence is suppressed until the report is released.

I could add tailplane icing to the long list of possibilities already put forward, but there's no more evidence for that than for the other possibilities. While the same kind of aviation accidents tend to repeat themselves, there's a number where something out of left field pops up; and a number where there's not sufficient data to make any conclusions.

We should remember that the C-500 is a well proven aircraft with an enviable record.
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by Taxivasion »

pdw wrote:From rotation to accident-site is four and a half minutes according to flightaware data.

Reading the Gfa s (previous page link) shows convergence of two systems into southern BC during that evening.

The 13/10/2016-1200Z Gfa shows a 983mb Lo approx 500mi NW of Vancouver, yet for 1800Z on the 13th is in the same place at 980mb. Then for the next Gfa .. 14/10/2016-0000Z a 2nd Lo has popped up 200mi SW of Vancouver showing by the time of the 0600Z Gfa (1.5 hours after the accident) that those two separate lo's had converged into one deep LO in south eastern BC at a given pressure of 969mb.

This accident sequence looks to be initiating approximately at the height of where this new LO's warmfront was located just into/across southern BC at the time. What can the upper winds be doing at its front above Kelowna when just to the west (closer to the LO's centre) the warm/moistureladen winds are 45kts from a southerly direction ?
Stop....For God Sakes Stop...
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Re: Citation down North of Kelowna

Post by AuxBatOn »

pdw wrote:From rotation to accident-site is four and a half minutes according to flightaware data.

Reading the Gfa s (previous page link) shows convergence of two systems into southern BC during that evening.

The 13/10/2016-1200Z Gfa shows a 983mb Lo
You are concluding using very low resolution, not very reliable data since you started posting in this thread! Please stop, you just discredit yourself.

By the way, a GFA is a forecast tool. It doesn't show anythting: it gives you a rough idea where the weather will be in 6/12/18 hours.
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