Missing airplane on flight from Penticton to Edmonton

[CpnCrunch]

I have it now, thanks. Anybody got the 4 pm MST Metar for Revelstoke that day?

It seems that Revelstoke was an enroute waypoint as the route is sort of direct there, and always to the northwest of the direct track between Penticton and Edmonton.

Sorry, I didn't realise about needing an account on flightaware to see that. I was wondering why it said the flight was hidden, but I could see it (I was logged into flightaware).

If you google "ogimet metars" you can search back for historical metars and tafs. I think it was saying scattered at 7000ft at the time, and the track data shows them descending below 7000.

[Notapilot1]

Based on all the information posted here, is there a possibility of some location suggestions? There seems to be a lot of “I wouldn’t have done that” but the knowledge from the posts I’ve read seems abundant. Compiling all the information; weather, winds, speed, ceilings, cell phone pings, routes, etc. Where could they be?

I have seen what areas have been searched but there’s always doubt of course, that SAR could be missing something.

Thinking like a pilot, where would you have gone?

[ska]

Hi there, I'm a reporter with CTV Edmonton. We are reporting on the missing plane, and I'm interested in speaking with a pilot about this situation. If you have a moment, would you please be able to reach out today? My email is shanelle.kaul@ctv.ca.
Thank you.

[CpnCrunch]

Sadly the search is ending if they are not found today:

https://www.castanet.net/news/BC/213157 ... ane-ending

It's certainly an eye opener that we have had 2 planes go down in the mountains this year and we have no idea where they are. ELTs are very unreliable, cellphones can't be relied on, and radar tracking only works if you're up high. Once you're on the ground your plane is virtually invisible under the trees. You really need a SPOT or similar device if flying in remote terrain.

[Notapilot1]

Hello,

I had tried posting a question earlier but it I am unsure if it went through or if it wasn't approved by a mod for some reason. Anyways, here we go again.

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

SAR is no longer looking and family and friends are relying on public assistance from here on out.

[CpnCrunch]

Hello,

I had tried posting a question earlier but it I am unsure if it went through or if it wasn't approved by a mod for some reason. Anyways, here we go again.

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

SAR is no longer looking and family and friends are relying on public assistance from here on out.

The news stories say they think the most likely location was between Revelstoke and Rogers Pass. That would make sense, as it would be the most likely route they would fly. The cellphone ping at night (if that is correct) seems pretty definitive proof that they crashed in that area and that at least the cellphone survived.

[P-40]

Hello,

I had tried posting a question earlier but it I am unsure if it went through or if it wasn't approved by a mod for some reason. Anyways, here we go again.

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

SAR is no longer looking and family and friends are relying on public assistance from here on out.

The search team has been overflying the areas where the pilot's cell phone registered a ping to a nearby tower and where their suspected route took them. A flight plan was not filed which exasperates things further. Finding a light GA aircraft in the mountains really is like searching for a 'needle in a haystack'. There are so many visual difficulties that make finding a downed aircraft in the mountains near impossible, especially this time of year with the addition of snow. The rocks are good at hiding things, sometimes forever.

I hope for the sake of the family and friends of both pilot and passenger that the aircraft is eventually found.

[P-40]

Sadly the search is ending if they are not found today:

https://www.castanet.net/news/BC/213157 ... ane-ending

It's certainly an eye opener that we have had 2 planes go down in the mountains this year and we have no idea where they are. ELTs are very unreliable, cellphones can't be relied on, and radar tracking only works if you're up high. Once you're on the ground your plane is virtually invisible under the trees. You really need a SPOT or similar device if flying in remote terrain.

You're so right. I never obtained my Mountain endorsement and have no plans to so have no relevant mountain flying experience to speak of. However, a fellow pilot I know who travels across the rocks frequently does not leave the ground without his SPOT. For a relatively inexpensive piece of equipment, it can be extremely invaluable and perhaps lifesaving if you go down.

[PilotDAR]

You really need a SPOT or similar device if flying in remote terrain.

I very much second this, to the point of saying that if a pilot won't equip themselves with this simple, low cost equipment, which would greatly affect the size of search areas, should those large areas be being searched at taxpayer expense. Other jurisdictions are not so giving of search resources.

For those who have not seen/remain unconvinced, the person you appoint to follow your progress, gets a computer screen showing where you have flown, like this:



Wherever the last SPOT mark is, is where you were within the last ten minutes. If your line of SPOT marks is straight, ahead from your last waypoint for ten minutes worth of flying is the first place to search. If the SPOT was destroyed in the crash, 'doesn't matter. 'Makes searching kinda straight forward!

Millions would have been saved had MH370 had one!

[piperdriver]

CBC is now reporting the search has been called off.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/a ... spartandhp

[cncpc]

Based on all the information posted here, is there a possibility of some location suggestions? There seems to be a lot of “I wouldn’t have done that” but the knowledge from the posts I’ve read seems abundant. Compiling all the information; weather, winds, speed, ceilings, cell phone pings, routes, etc. Where could they be?

I have seen what areas have been searched but there’s always doubt of course, that SAR could be missing something.

Thinking like a pilot, where would you have gone?

To a hotel in Revelstoke.

[rookiepilot]

Spot, extra batteries for spot, survival kit, fully charged phone, charger, Flight plan, detailed itinerary with trusted family to back up flight plan. That's a good idea in Northern Ontario, even.

[pdw]

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

Pilots/individuals often contribute when there is helpful information about something they might have unique experience with, ie ANYTHING that might pertain. Also might be possible to poll for logical lat/long pinpoint opinions from frequenters here that have experienced navigation through this area.

[bobm]

Not to thread drift too much...

I see a lot of conversation with respect to the SPOT. It is a great piece of equipment.

If you are thinking of buying one though, also take a look at the Garmin InReach. It has Global coverage (SPOT does not), tracks the same as the Spot, can send "canned messages" like the Spot and you can even Send and Receive text messages with it plus much more. (Post to Facebook etc.)

Just take a look to compare and decide what is best for your situation.

No, I do not own stock in the company.

Praying for a miracle.

[5x5]

Very sad, but the search has been called off. Reasonable decision but I sure feel bad for the families with no closure.

http://edmontonsun.com/news/local-news/ ... 997355e98f

[Notapilot1]

I know where they have searched, what towers were pinged, where they went off radar, how many times he has flown that route. What I’m asking is with all of the collective information, is there something missing? Something a pilot might see that’s being overlooked as far as terrain, alternate routes, etc.

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

[Notapilot1]

I am seeing a lot of great conversation here about potential location possibilities. Taking all of the environmental factors, plane make and model, experience, weather, etc into consideration is there a consensus as to where they might be? I do have more information if needed, and I feel that the knowledge base here is pertinent to recovery efforts. Experience and pilot train of thought is crucial to the efforts being made (in my opinion.)

Pilots/individuals often contribute when there is helpful information about something they might have unique experience with, ie ANYTHING that might pertain. Also might be possible to poll for logical lat/long pinpoint opinions from frequenters here that have experienced navigation through this area.

Thank you. That’s a helpful suggestion although I have no clue how to do that. Hopefully I can figure it out tomorrow morning as opposed to 1 am.

[pdw]

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

An recent avalanche would have been something visible upon over flight by SAR.

40 miles past the "last radar" hit at Revelstoke does not seem quite far enough along that route to match "43 minutes" at 125mph or so, when referring to an impact vibration; unless, after "turned around", if possibly a "wrong canyon" (Diadem / previous page discussion) or "deteriorating weather/vis" (an area pilot / as quoted from early News). I don't know that much about avalanches, but if a smaller one not as visible from above is triggered .. perhaps it sometimes takes a while before it lets go or gets rolling?

Investigators/searchers will probably take into consideration what type of vibrations these sensors are capable of picking up, even an echoe of a crash-noise/soundwave from farther distance across/down the valley. It's not something to take too lightly, if no other sensors going off that day/time in the area.

[AirFrame]

If you are thinking of buying one though, also take a look at the Garmin InReach. It has Global coverage (SPOT does not), tracks the same as the Spot, can send "canned messages" like the Spot and you can even Send and Receive text messages with it plus much more. (Post to Facebook etc.)

Keep in mind the InReach is a lot more money for only a little more functionality. My SPOT has worked in southeast Asia, Europe, and North America... I've only used it in a plane in North America though.

Someone else mentioned the 10 minute spacing of the SPOT positions... Note that if you ever hit that emergency button, the position reporting ups to once every 2.5 minutes, not once every 10. You can pay extra and get 2.5 minute spacing reported on your SPOT track all the time, if you want to.

[CpnCrunch]

I know where they have searched, what towers were pinged, where they went off radar, how many times he has flown that route. What I’m asking is with all of the collective information, is there something missing? Something a pilot might see that’s being overlooked as far as terrain, alternate routes, etc.

Yes, I know the two people in the plane, i know the passengers daughter. So that hotel comment? That was malicious and uncalled for.

As an aside (sort of) an avalanche sensor went off at Ross Peak 43 minutes after the last radar (unsure on the exact time as of right now.)

Yes, Ross Peak does seem a very likely location. Was it thoroughly searched?