PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

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GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
Pitt Meadows.png (32.36 KiB) Viewed 4444 times
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AuxBatOn
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by AuxBatOn »

Every accident has a freak windshear at the worst possible moment.

How much aviation experience do you have pdw? How many types have you flown, how many hours and when did you get a license?
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pelmet
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by pelmet »

It almost seems like he wants to blame his incident on the winds and make it the unavoidable cause of every accident. Which, would be a very unsafe thing to promote for most accidents.

I truly hope that someone with knowledge of the YPK incident comes forth with the actual cause so we can finally debunk this faulty theory which I fear could be creating more hazard than it is decreasing hazard based on inexperienced people reading this kind of info..
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Last edited by pelmet on Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

PDW's posts on these forums related to aviation accidents really ought to come with disclaimers preceding and following them, just in case they are ever taken seriously.
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rookiepilot
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by rookiepilot »

GyvAir wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png

I'm looking for that 20 knot quartering tailwind.
I can't even...... :roll: ......done here.

Let's assume you're correct, PDW, for fun.

I've taken off with variable, 15-20 knot crosswinds moving from a slight headwind to tailwind, and back again. In a light single. Actually watched the sock for a few minutes to decide which way. Then just went. Wasn't a big deal with the inputs put in.

In a twin, I'd imagine it would be far less of a deal. All FWIW, of course.

And YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.
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C.W.E.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by C.W.E. »

This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?
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Chuck Finley
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by Chuck Finley »

PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.
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GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

C.W.E. wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:11 pm This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?
I doubt the TSB is going to invest any manpower in this one.
I suspect that the people involved have a pretty good idea what happened and why by now. Perhaps they will provide the information for an update to the CADORS, so that light twins can once again be operated off long runways in negligible winds with reasonable confidence.
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GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

. Finley wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 5:48 pm PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.
Original Gangster?
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rookiepilot
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by rookiepilot »

I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then --- :mrgreen:
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Illya Kuryakin
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by Illya Kuryakin »

rookiepilot wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 6:36 pm I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then --- :mrgreen:
Set your props for climb RPM for takeoff (long runway, nice day) sometime. You will notice very little difference in runway used! And, it's quieter.
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pdw
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by pdw »

GyvAir wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
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rookiepilot
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by rookiepilot »

pdw wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by Illya Kuryakin »

Could have been....forgot the log book...reject...
Too simple? Not everything is life n death.
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GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

pdw wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Yep. Reliable weather data, sourced right smack next door the "Weeds House Cannabis Complex". Given that, I guess it could have been skewing the data by registering some localized highs...
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pdw
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by pdw »

LOL
rookiepilot wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:56 pm
pdw wrote: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:42 pm
GyvAir wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:16 pm Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png
This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).
Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?
No the " 20 knot " can be south .. associated with the moments of warmest temp of the day as well as the largest dewpoint spread; in checking thoroughly is definitely NOT showing out of the EAST (with any strength at least). Up ahead at Vancouver Int the 2pm METAR has recorded 12G20 SW, and a few madis-stations are showing that carried east toward Pitt .. showing up in between the described incident location and CYVR a few times just ahead of this incident (which seems to line-up .. timewise).

Unfortunately CWNN is well east of the departure end of rwy 26, and well out of the picture for the relevant on-runway accuracy needed here for something like that; the described incident location is 2 miles West of this reporting station (also surrounded by large factory buildings / not in the middle of things). Is it possible this station wouldn't represent 100V170 or 80V180 if it surfaced ?
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Last edited by pdw on Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:32 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by Trematode »

pdw has been (brilliantly) trolling these forums for 6 years now. Amazing.
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pdw
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by pdw »

CYVR .. SSW 12G20kt

Abbotsford .. South 11G16kt
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by pdw »

rookiepilot wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:51 pmAnd YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.
I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them ...

EDIT:
GyvAir, I don't think CWMM auto issues those (so won't know if happened/happening) even if there was veering in between the METARs 2-3pm . A lot of these showing up at other "official" airport wx stns north of there that day. The nearest madis stations few miles SW of Pitt have the accurrate temps (highest temps ahead of 2:45pm 15-16C) yet wind-indicators not reporting at all.

EDIT 2:

I'm pretty sure LLWS could be passing just high enough over the town not to be registering between the buildings there (for the two applicable CWMM metars before / after). IMO strong South simply could drop LLow enough in the open area there on the runway (mid-airport/wide-unobstructed .. where no recording) where the incident occurs out in the clear at rotation about 2km or more away. IMO .. it's potentially too far from the CWMM recording devices between those immense buildings for that particular strong "South" to necessarily have registered there (like at Abbostsford SE 18nm 2-3pm or WEST 17nm at CYVR 2pm).
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Last edited by pdw on Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
GyvAir
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Re: PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

Post by GyvAir »

pdw wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:33 am
rookiepilot wrote: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:51 pmAnd YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.
I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ABB , ORS ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them (BLI i think it was) ...
You want to see that rogue ghost wind so badly that you're making stuff up now?
It's interesting that you discount weather recorded at a certified weather station half a runway length away from the start of the takeoff roll as being irrelevant, but you'll comb through weather details from stations 50 miles away in all directions for evidence to support what you want to believe happened?
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