PA-34 RTO @ YPK-What happened

[C.W.E.]

This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?

[Chuck Finley]

PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.

[GyvAir]

This being Canada what are the odds we will ever know what caused it?

I doubt the TSB is going to invest any manpower in this one.
I suspect that the people involved have a pretty good idea what happened and why by now. Perhaps they will provide the information for an update to the CADORS, so that light twins can once again be operated off long runways in negligible winds with reasonable confidence.

[GyvAir]

PDW must have been born on a variable tailwind full moon night.

Come to think of it, he must be the Variable Tailwind O.G.

Original Gangster?

[rookiepilot]

I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then ---

[Illya Kuryakin]

I'll take a stab at it, for fun.

Props were set coarse instead of where they should have been. Or mixture. Yeah, dumb guess, but top it then ---

Set your props for climb RPM for takeoff (long runway, nice day) sometime. You will notice very little difference in runway used! And, it's quieter.
Illya

[pdw]

Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png

This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).

[rookiepilot]

Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png

This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).

Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?

[Illya Kuryakin]

Could have been....forgot the log book...reject...
Too simple? Not everything is life n death.
Illya

[GyvAir]

Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png

This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).

Yep. Reliable weather data, sourced right smack next door the "Weeds House Cannabis Complex". Given that, I guess it could have been skewing the data by registering some localized highs...

[pdw]

LOL

Occurrence Date:
2017-11-23
Occurrence Time:
2245 Z
Local Time:
14:45

Pitt Meadows Weather:
Pitt Meadows.png

This looks same as WX data sourced 2.5-3km ESE of this incident location, at CWMM Pitt Meadows (not at CYPK).

Any sign of a 20 knot tailwind?

No the " 20 knot " can be south .. associated with the moments of warmest temp of the day as well as the largest dewpoint spread; in checking thoroughly is definitely NOT showing out of the EAST (with any strength at least). Up ahead at Vancouver Int the 2pm METAR has recorded 12G20 SW, and a few madis-stations are showing that carried east toward Pitt .. showing up in between the described incident location and CYVR a few times just ahead of this incident (which seems to line-up .. timewise).

Unfortunately CWNN is well east of the departure end of rwy 26, and well out of the picture for the relevant on-runway accuracy needed here for something like that; the described incident location is 2 miles West of this reporting station (also surrounded by large factory buildings / not in the middle of things). Is it possible this station wouldn't represent 100V170 or 80V180 if it surfaced ?

[Trematode]

pdw has been (brilliantly) trolling these forums for 6 years now. Amazing.

[pdw]

CYVR .. SSW 12G20kt

Abbotsford .. South 11G16kt

[pdw]

And YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.

I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them ...

EDIT:
GyvAir, I don't think CWMM auto issues those (so won't know if happened/happening) even if there was veering in between the METARs 2-3pm . A lot of these showing up at other "official" airport wx stns north of there that day. The nearest madis stations few miles SW of Pitt have the accurrate temps (highest temps ahead of 2:45pm 15-16C) yet wind-indicators not reporting at all.

EDIT 2:

I'm pretty sure LLWS could be passing just high enough over the town not to be registering between the buildings there (for the two applicable CWMM metars before / after). IMO strong South simply could drop LLow enough in the open area there on the runway (mid-airport/wide-unobstructed .. where no recording) where the incident occurs out in the clear at rotation about 2km or more away. IMO .. it's potentially too far from the CWMM recording devices between those immense buildings for that particular strong "South" to necessarily have registered there (like at Abbostsford SE 18nm 2-3pm or WEST 17nm at CYVR 2pm).

[GyvAir]

And YPK is no big deal at all. Long, wide runway, no terrain.

I was under the impression that an xxxVyyy with 15-20kts involved on occasion can seriously influence an aircraft in the open runway area (esp south/southeast of the LO near the mountains) esp by surprise, not expecting. Isn't that why they are in there .. in those METARS ? Or .. why are they in there ? There were more than just a few of those around to sample on that day .. well ahead of this incident .. in YCD 210V360 ,YVR 08V180, ABB , ORS ...

Pelmet, if we are worried about accurate dissemination of info, isn't it also wise to disclaim what some of those symbols actually mean and why they are in there? I believe even an AUTO issues them (BLI i think it was) ...

You want to see that rogue ghost wind so badly that you're making stuff up now?
It's interesting that you discount weather recorded at a certified weather station half a runway length away from the start of the takeoff roll as being irrelevant, but you'll comb through weather details from stations 50 miles away in all directions for evidence to support what you want to believe happened?

[pdw]

CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...

[rookiepilot]

CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...

LLWS IS reported by stations. Show me one station where that is reported.

Please.

[GyvAir]

CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...

Look at the wind speeds that went with all those dreaded variable direction winds. The wind was so light most of the day over much of the region that it couldn't decide which way it wasn't going to blow. Not much in the way of gusting reported, either.

[rookiepilot]

CWMM is not "irrelevant", no not at all; yet for that kind of runway LLWS far out in the clear it might require a cross refernence for accurate timing if the station had missed it. And I only used the " 50 mile " one to show how many xxxVyyy readings there are elsewhere nearby in that system around that time. Stations north of there had them every hour ...

Look at the wind speeds that went with all those dreaded variable direction winds. The wind was so light most of the day over much of the region that it couldn't decide which way it wasn't going to blow. Not much in the way of gusting reported, either.

Where is this low level windshear?

[pdw]

Just above (Low Level .. as the naming suggests) except that over any wide open areas like airports, without any obstructions, it drops Lower ... because over flat areas can force cool retreating air out of the way so easily. IMO the timing (YVR 2pm and Abbotford 2-3pm) .. still seems to work for that.

One of the points that is brought up, .. where is the actual anomometer located to sense/record a mid-runway LLWS in progress on this field ?