piper arrow down at CYFD

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fche
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piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by fche » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:53 am

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JasonE
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by JasonE » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:11 pm

The evening news reported it was a husband-and-wife couple from Brampton. Sad they did not file a flight plan to be found until morning, although looking at the damage it likely would not of made a difference.

It's starting to get cold out again, it's that time a year to think about survival gear/clothing that you carry.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by photofly » Tue Nov 13, 2018 6:46 pm

No fire, though.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by rookiepilot » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:06 pm

Sad. I know this pilot. Nice man.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by anofly » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:31 pm

What was weather like last night?
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fche
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by fche » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:37 pm

CYHM 130900Z 32005KT 3SM -SN OVC008 01/01 A3011 RMK SC8 PRESFR SLP205
CYHM 130800Z 28002KT 3SM -SN FEW024 OVC045 01/01 A3013 RMK SC2SC6 SLP211
CYHM 130700Z 35003KT 10SM -SN FEW030 OVC046 01/01 A3013 RMK SC2SC6 SLP214
CYHM 130600Z 01003KT 10SM -SN FEW004 BKN060 OVC080 01/01 A3016 RMK SC2SC5AC1 SLP222

CYKF 130900Z AUTO 29002KT 1 1/4SM -SN OVC040 M00/M00 A3011 RMK SLP207
CYKF 130803Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN -UP FEW005 OVC028 M00/M00 A3012 RMK SLP210
CYKF 130718Z AUTO 04003KT 1SM -SN VV017 00/M00 A3013 RMK ICG SLP213
CYKF 130602Z AUTO 00000KT 1SM -SN -UP VV017 00/M00 A3015 RMK SLP222
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by PlanePaully » Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:50 pm

anofly wrote:
Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:31 pm
What was weather like last night?
I tried listening to the LiveATC feed archives from around 06:00Z. It sounded like there were over a dozen attempts to key the mic for the ARCAL, but no voice calls recorded. Weather radar clipped from LiveATC archive from 05:48Z.

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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by fche » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:11 pm

Nearest good size airport with VMC seems to have been KBUF. I wonder if they talked to ATC at all.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by anofly » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:33 pm

where the heck were they coming from? where are two rather elderly folks coming from to need to land at 2 am.... Certainly we have the freedom for that but 2 am.... snow showers... 80 yrs old... whats the rush...
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by C.W.E. » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:23 pm

Certainly we have the freedom for that but 2 am.... snow showers... 80 yrs old... whats the rush...
What exactly does 80 years old have to do with this accident?
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by nbinont » Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:34 pm

C.W.E. wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:23 pm
Certainly we have the freedom for that but 2 am.... snow showers... 80 yrs old... whats the rush...
What exactly does 80 years old have to do with this accident?
A whole lot of nothing - except maybe to imply that it is possible that they might have had an above average amount of experience...
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by waterdog » Sat Nov 17, 2018 1:38 am

anofly wrote:
Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:33 pm
where the heck were they coming from? where are two rather elderly folks coming from to need to land at 2 am.... Certainly we have the freedom for that but 2 am.... snow showers... 80 yrs old... whats the rush...
I was wondering the exact same thing. Like it or not age does produce a “profile” of expected behaviour. I don’t think it’s any different then being surprised when an elderly couple leaves a restaurant at 3am downtown. If you bumped into them on the way out you’d be surprised, it’s just not expected. Don’t get me wrong it has nothing to do with the accident but I was surprised as well.
Since there was no flight plan they weren’t on a long xcountry crossing the border, I wonder how far they were coming from. I’d assume they didn’t leave their home airport at 1am to fly to Brantford for 1:30, that just doesn’t make sense.

Sad either way.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by anofly » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:22 am

Sorry if the 80 reference offends anyone. In general, but certainly not in every case, the need to be flying at 2am, in snow showers and or marginal vfr,(or worse?) conditions, coming home from the cottage or wherever , to get to work in the morning diminishes.I certainly hope to be flying at 80... fly safe. Condolences for family and friends...
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by pelmet » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:59 am

anofly wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:22 am
Sorry if the 80 reference offends anyone. In general, but certainly not in every case, the need to be flying at 2am, in snow showers and or marginal vfr,(or worse?) conditions, coming home from the cottage or wherever , to get to work in the morning diminishes.
I doubt the age of the pilot would have much to do with the accident except to make it more likely that there was no need to get to work in the morning(probably retired). Decision-making and possibly pre-flight preparation will be the most likely factors. Perhaps the 80 years old factor could mean something if the pilot had been flying for a significant amount of those years in which case one might ask...when will they ever learn.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by mbav8r » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:31 am

“Many people who are developing or have dementia do not receive a diagnosis. One study showed that physicians were unaware of cognitive impairment in more than 40 percent of their cognitively impaired patients.(3) Another study found that more than half of patients with dementia had not received a clinical cognitive evaluation by a physician.(17) The failure to evaluate memory or cognitive complaints is likely to hinder treatment of underlying disease and comorbid conditions, and may present safety issues for the patient and others.(4,5) In many cases, the cognitive problem will worsen over time.(2,4,6)”
Fact is, it may have nothing to do with it, or everything to do with it. Common with many aging people who have cognitive impairment is they won’t admit it or even hide it and get extremely upset when you bring it up.
Even I’ve noticed my memory isn’t as reliable as it once was, I joke about early onset Alzheimer’s but fact is, it is part of aging. There are plenty of aging drivers who should not be, perhaps there are some pilots as well, again, not saying this was a factor, just can’t be ruled out.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by pelmet » Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:36 am

mbav8r wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:31 am
“Many people who are developing or have dementia do not receive a diagnosis. One study showed that physicians were unaware of cognitive impairment in more than 40 percent of their cognitively impaired patients.(3) Another study found that more than half of patients with dementia had not received a clinical cognitive evaluation by a physician.(17) The failure to evaluate memory or cognitive complaints is likely to hinder treatment of underlying disease and comorbid conditions, and may present safety issues for the patient and others.(4,5) In many cases, the cognitive problem will worsen over time.(2,4,6)”
Fact is, it may have nothing to do with it, or everything to do with it. Common with many aging people who have cognitive impairment is they won’t admit it or even hide it and get extremely upset when you bring it up.
Even I’ve noticed my memory isn’t as reliable as it once was, I joke about early onset Alzheimer’s but fact is, it is part of aging. There are plenty of aging drivers who should not be, perhaps there are some pilots as well, again, not saying this was a factor, just can’t be ruled out.

Useful info and something worth noting along with the fact that with little info, there could be a multitude of possible causes. But....based on the number of pilots, including many relatively young ones, over the years who have crashed in VFR flights into marginal conditions, age just looks like a red herring in this incident.

Bad decision-making will be looked at as a possibilty.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by PlanePaully » Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:27 pm

I still can't understand why someone would key the mic for the ARCAL multiple times, but not say a word otherwise. It is very perplexing.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by C.W.E. » Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:39 pm

For sure age can degrade ones mental acuity, however it varies from person to person and can be difficult to measure initially.

Bob Hoover was a good example of age and the ability to think and react to a very high degree of skill, he was still doing engine out aerobatics at low level in his Aerocommander well into his eighties.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by jakeandelwood » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:54 pm

Who knows, maybe he did have to go to work in the morning, he did own a plane after all. The only way I'll retire by 80 is stop being an aircraft owner.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by pelmet » Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:21 am

jakeandelwood wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:54 pm
Who knows, maybe he did have to go to work in the morning, he did own a plane after all. The only way I'll retire by 80 is stop being an aircraft owner.

It is quite possible that one of them had something important to do the following day. That is a frequent cause of people getting into these marginal weather situations ie……going on a trip somewhere when there is what is felt to be an important event soon after the end of the trip which results in a takeoff(frequently on the return leg) instead of just waiting out the weather. The important event creates a pressure or stronger desire to get back home. Therefore, it is a good idea, if possible, to not have something important set up close to the planned time of return. Not necessarily always easy but sometimes it is. Or maybe adjust the flight date(if it is an option) so that it is timed so that there will be less pressure due to an important event like the daughter's graduation ceremonly or family reunion. Not necessarily convenient but on other occasions, perhaps there is no inconvenience.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by 05480213 » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:10 am

I have noticed as one gets older you tend to have more medical and dental appointmens. This should be taken under consideration when flight planning to account for weather.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by geneticistx » Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:44 am

i have been using a 92 year old freelance instructor for part of my night rating. the guy is amazing, sharp, agile and quick.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by jakeandelwood » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:40 pm

geneticistx wrote:
Sun Nov 18, 2018 9:44 am
i have been using a 92 year old freelance instructor for part of my night rating. the guy is amazing, sharp, agile and quick.
We can all hope to be like that at that age, that's amazing!
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by Old fella » Sun Nov 18, 2018 8:56 pm

C.W.E. wrote:
Sat Nov 17, 2018 5:39 pm
For sure age can degrade ones mental acuity, however it varies from person to person and can be difficult to measure initially.

Bob Hoover was a good example of age and the ability to think and react to a very high degree of skill, he was still doing engine out aerobatics at low level in his Aerocommander well into his eighties.
I am in much better shape than a few 40 yr olds I know, however I also know of some 75-80 yr olds who are in superior shape than me. There are some much younger better people than me who didn’t get to live as long as I did, conversely there will be some undesirables who will get to live longer than me. I take it all in stride.
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Re: piper arrow down at CYFD

Post by schnitzel2k3 » Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:23 pm

I think the real question is, why was any non-icing certified Piper buzzing around in a snowstorm at 1am on a flight itinerary (at best). We landed at Pearson at around 4pm, it was pretty messy already and that was the first wave. Would never think to venture out in a Piper VFR deep into the front.

It boggles the mind.

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