Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

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telex
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by telex » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:15 pm

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tsgas » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:19 pm

FADEC wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:48 am
We don't know what happened yet, but it seems there was a control problem.
Putting the MCAS system in and not putting it in the Flight Manual is ridiculous! Why?
Runaway MCAS should be trained for; repeatedly; can't do that if it is not in the Manual.
Hopefully if there is any indication of MCAS problems in the earliest results from the Flight/Voice Recorders the MAX will be grounded.

Remember that earlier 737's had an issue with rogue rudder actuators going hard over. Boeing denied all the evidence.
Several accidents and incidents were blamed on pilots until one crew managed to land an airplane with the malfunction and Boeing was exposed; forced to re-design the part.
Boeing claimed one of the accidents was a pilot committing suicide when the airplane rolled over and flew into the ground.

Boeing 747 engine mount "Fuse Pins" failed and caused a couple of fatals. Had to be re-designed.

Three 707's had the horizontal stabiliser snap off when landing flap was selected with bad results.

Regarding low time co-pilots. Hopefully that had nothing to do with it.
At one time, AC had lots of just over 250 hour pilots; there were several on my course. There was no problem.
Those pilots were mentored by experienced Captains.
I had the odd F/O with lots of time who was not good on a good day; hours were not the issue.
Lufthansa F/O's go on the line with 250 hours; that hasn't been a problem.
Grads from Sault, Seneca and the like are better trained than many of the low time F/O's that were on the line before those programs started.
Sometimes a higher time pilot has bad habits or attitudes that are a detriment.
The FAA in the USA ,upped the minimum experience level to 1500 hrs based on it's concerns for flight safety.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by digits_ » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:46 pm

Thanks for the picture.

Speculation, but I have a feeling that this would be exactly what happened, and Boeing will try to blame the crew for not pressing that switch quickly enough.

Any idea what the flap retraction altitude is at Ethiopian Airlines?
And the Lion air one?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by ant_321 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:56 pm

digits_ wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:46 pm
Thanks for the picture.

Speculation, but I have a feeling that this would be exactly what happened, and Boeing will try to blame the crew for not pressing that switch quickly enough.

Any idea what the flap retraction altitude is at Ethiopian Airlines?
And the Lion air one?
Most airlines use 800’ or 1000’. I’m not sure what they use.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tbaylx » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:09 pm

GRK2 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:24 am
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:43 am
GRK2 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:57 am
Wow...pretty cold. How about you don't talk about your awesome business prowess here on this site? :roll:
Nothing cold or prowess related about buying into a long term investment. Because they happened to be the manufacturer of the aircraft that crashed has nothing to do with investing in them.
Let me put it more simple terms there Tbay...this isn't the place for your investment tips...and yes, to tell us all how smart you think you are by posting your stock buying idea on an accident thread is purely chilling. Take it outside buddy, it doesn't belong here.
Yup that's what I was doing, not replying to another post on the same subject. :roll: Chilling, simply callous and chilling.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tbaylx » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:48 pm

Capt. Underpants wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:47 am
Lets assume worst case scenario and its a faulty AOA sensor and a mishandled MCAS response. Emergency AD issued changing the FCC software and removing the MCAS trim inputs and the fleet is flying again. Long term it gets fixed with software or addition of a third AOA sensor. The aircraft will continue to be bought and put into service, same as the 787 after the battery issues got fixed.
MCAS was used to certify the flight envelope limitations on the MAX. You don't just "turn it off" and carry on as if nothing happened. Any changes to the system would require re-certification prior to release to the industry.
Not true, it just has to be approved. You don't have to re certify the entire aircraft. Same as when they redid the rudder PCU didn't require a complete re certification.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Capt. Underpants » Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:54 pm

tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:48 pm
Capt. Underpants wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:35 am

MCAS was used to certify the flight envelope limitations on the MAX. You don't just "turn it off" and carry on as if nothing happened. Any changes to the system would require re-certification prior to release to the industry.
Not true, it just has to be approved. You don't have to re certify the entire aircraft. Same as when they redid the rudder PCU didn't require a complete re certification.
Partly. No, the whole flight test program wouldn't need to be redone. However, given the flight envelope implications and two fatal accidents in short succession, I'd bet the farm that FAA would require all MCAS-related certification flight tests to be redone.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Meatservo » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:07 pm

Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by telex » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:48 pm

Meatservo wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:07 pm
Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
From another forum.

“And Boeing have still not explained the logic of of a pseudo-stick-push that keeps operating again and again and again, until you get full forward trim. Have you tried this MCAS-trim-runaway in the sim? According to the sim, the aircraft is only just about controllable with two gorillas hauling back in unison, with both feet up on the foot-bar and hauling about 40 kg pressure on each stick. And that was in level flight with the CofG in the central position. Ok, now try a recovery from a stall-dive, with a forward CofG, with 20º nose down pitch, and with the speed rapidly increasing to 250 kt. It is absolutely impossible - you are doomed. And doomed by an anti-stall system that is supposed to save you. But who in the world would want to recover from a stall, with the trim-stabiliser set fully forward? Who thought that ine up? The stabiliser is more powerful than the elevator, and will take you straight down to terra-firma. Heck, even the Wright Brothers knew not to design something like that.”
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tbaylx » Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:49 pm

Meatservo wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:07 pm
Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
It certainly was a factor in the Lion Air, pure speculation with Ethiopian as no data recorder info has been released yet.

Either way you're correct though, it's a runaway stab regardless of what the root cause of the runaway is, the actions are the same.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by digits_ » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:22 pm

tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:49 pm
Meatservo wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:07 pm
Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
It certainly was a factor in the Lion Air, pure speculation with Ethiopian as no data recorder info has been released yet.

Either way you're correct though, it's a runaway stab regardless of what the root cause of the runaway is, the actions are the same.
How many seconds would you have to identify the issue and perform those actions if they happen at 1000 AGL?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Heliian » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:42 pm

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/ ... -1.4330994

Boeing makes a great product and I've flown on many types but until they get some more info, I would err on the side of caution and not fly it. Let's have garneau put his money where his mouth is.

Most of Indonesia and China has stopped at this time, as well as a couple others.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by BMLtech » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm

Why would the MAX not have the stab trim brake feature of earlier Boeings, that braked the stab trim as soon as the control column was moved in the opposite direction to trimming?? Also Does the MAX have a warning for stab out of trim condition?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Donald » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:20 pm

Heliian wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:42 pm
https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/business/ ... -1.4330994

Boeing makes a great product and I've flown on many types but until they get some more info, I would err on the side of caution and not fly it. Let's have garneau put his money where his mouth is.

Most of Indonesia and China has stopped at this time, as well as a couple others.
China has most likely made this move as an F-U to the USA.

As for why Canada hasn’t suspended MAX ops, why shouldn’t we follow the advice of Boeing/NTSB?

As for the safety record of Ethiopian Airlines:
As of March 2019, the Aviation Safety Network records 64 accidents/incidents for Ethiopian Airlines that total 459 fatalities since 1965,[1] plus six accidents for Ethiopian Air Lines, the airline’s former name.[2] Since July 1948, the company wrote off 36 aircraft, including three Boeing 707s, three Boeing 737s, one Boeing 767, two Douglas DC-3s, two Douglas DC-6, one de Havilland Canada DHC-5 Buffalo, two de Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otters, 21 subtypes of the Douglas C-47, one Lockheed L-749 Constellation and one Lockheed L-100 Hercules.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by mbav8r » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:50 pm

tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:09 pm
GRK2 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:24 am
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:43 am


Nothing cold or prowess related about buying into a long term investment. Because they happened to be the manufacturer of the aircraft that crashed has nothing to do with investing in them.
Let me put it more simple terms there Tbay...this isn't the place for your investment tips...and yes, to tell us all how smart you think you are by posting your stock buying idea on an accident thread is purely chilling. Take it outside buddy, it doesn't belong here.
Yup that's what I was doing, not replying to another post on the same subject. :roll: Chilling, simply callous and chilling.
“A sociopath is a term used to describe someone who has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). People with ASPD can't understand others' feelings. They'll often break rules or make impulsive decisions without feeling guilty for the harm they cause”
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tbaylx » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 pm

mbav8r wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:50 pm
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:09 pm
GRK2 wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 9:24 am


Let me put it more simple terms there Tbay...this isn't the place for your investment tips...and yes, to tell us all how smart you think you are by posting your stock buying idea on an accident thread is purely chilling. Take it outside buddy, it doesn't belong here.
Yup that's what I was doing, not replying to another post on the same subject. :roll: Chilling, simply callous and chilling.
“A sociopath is a term used to describe someone who has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). People with ASPD can't understand others' feelings. They'll often break rules or make impulsive decisions without feeling guilty for the harm they cause”
That pretty much describes you over the last few months. Seek help.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tps8903 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:12 pm

digits_ wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:22 pm
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:49 pm
Meatservo wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:07 pm
Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
It certainly was a factor in the Lion Air, pure speculation with Ethiopian as no data recorder info has been released yet.

Either way you're correct though, it's a runaway stab regardless of what the root cause of the runaway is, the actions are the same.
How many seconds would you have to identify the issue and perform those actions if they happen at 1000 AGL?
I saw a caption on a news website of the plane's VS. It was erratic but I also noticed they fought the plane for about 3 minutes in the data shown. Is there any indications the MCAS has activated? Or is aggressive pitch down the only indication?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by mbav8r » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:16 pm

tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:07 pm
mbav8r wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:50 pm
tbaylx wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:09 pm


Yup that's what I was doing, not replying to another post on the same subject. :roll: Chilling, simply callous and chilling.
“A sociopath is a term used to describe someone who has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). People with ASPD can't understand others' feelings. They'll often break rules or make impulsive decisions without feeling guilty for the harm they cause”
That pretty much describes you over the last few months. Seek help.
I’m positive that if the two of us were to be analyzed by a psychiatrist, one of us would be considered a sociopath, I’m also positive it wouldn’t be me but you keep deflecting, seems to work for you.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by plhought » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:28 pm

BMLtech wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm
Why would the MAX not have the stab trim brake feature of earlier Boeings, that braked the stab trim as soon as the control column was moved in the opposite direction to trimming?? Also Does the MAX have a warning for stab out of trim condition?
The 737 Max and NG have control column trim cut-out switches. Trimming nose down and pull back? Electric trim will stop.

Once you relax the controls though the trimming (either person or FCC commanded) will begin again.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by BTD » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:28 pm

BMLtech wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:59 pm
Why would the MAX not have the stab trim brake feature of earlier Boeings, that braked the stab trim as soon as the control column was moved in the opposite direction to trimming?? Also Does the MAX have a warning for stab out of trim condition?
There is an interrupt if the column is pulled in the opposite direction. Apparently it doesn’t function under these circumstances. There is a light for stab out of trim. With the flaps retracted the trim moves relatively slowly.
telex wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 2:48 pm
[quote=Meatservo post_id=<a href="tel:1071645">1071645</a> time=<a href="tel:1552338459">1552338459</a> user_id=3757]
Is there any evidence this MCAS thing was responsible for either accident? It sounds pretty easy to deal with.
From another forum.

“And Boeing have still not explained the logic of of a pseudo-stick-push that keeps operating again and again and again, until you get full forward trim. Have you tried this MCAS-trim-runaway in the sim? According to the sim, the aircraft is only just about controllable with two gorillas hauling back in unison, with both feet up on the foot-bar and hauling about 40 kg pressure on each stick. And that was in level flight with the CofG in the central position. Ok, now try a recovery from a stall-dive, with a forward CofG, with 20º nose down pitch, and with the speed rapidly increasing to 250 kt. It is absolutely impossible - you are doomed. And doomed by an anti-stall system that is supposed to save you. But who in the world would want to recover from a stall, with the trim-stabiliser set fully forward? Who thought that ine up? The stabiliser is more powerful than the elevator, and will take you straight down to terra-firma. Heck, even the Wright Brothers knew not to design something like that.”
[/quote]

Hopefully you recognize the problem before full nose down trim and select the cutout switch’s off as per the memory item. Then take the handle out of the wheel and trim it back manually.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by lostaviator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 5:37 pm

With all the other *unknown* modifications to the 737 systems, perhaps the stab trim cutout switch position can be overridden by the MCAS system. The system knowledge I have tells me no, but then again, who knows anymore... Because Boeing doesn't want us knowing the systems.

New personal SOP on this thing is autopilot on at 400 agl prior to flap retraction altitude.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Gino Under » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:05 pm

It may be that both the FAA and Transport Canada are complicit in this B737-800 MAX disaster. Especially IF the investigation brings to light that MCAS played a roll in the accident.
Neither the FAA nor TCCA FSB OEB reports say a word about or have an abbreviation referring to MCAS.

If the MAX is the only version of the 737 with MCAS, then why wasn't it raised in the OEB reports with an accompanying recommendation for specific training?
The first link in a chain?

I believe the Lion Air accident prompted Boeing to initiate pilot awareness training once it was pointed out that MCAS was a new system but not included in pilot training material which was an omission on their part. Are we to believe Boeing didn't mention MCAS to MAX crews prior to entry into service? Apparently.
The second link in the chain?

If the Ethiopian crew received this awareness training, wouldn't they have been better prepared for an MCAS event than the Lion Air crew?
The third link in the chain?

I think it would be prudent to ground the MAX fleets UFN.

As the saying goes, never two without three.

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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by lostaviator » Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:10 pm

Gino Under wrote:
Mon Mar 11, 2019 6:05 pm
It may be that both the FAA and Transport Canada are complicit in this B737-800 MAX disaster. Especially IF the investigation brings to light that MCAS played a roll in the accident.
Neither the FAA nor TCCA FSB OEB reports say a word about or have an abbreviation referring to MCAS.

If the MAX is the only version of the 737 with MCAS, then why wasn't it raised in the OEB reports with an accompanying recommendation for specific training?
The first link in a chain?

I believe the Lion Air accident prompted Boeing to initiate pilot awareness training once it was pointed out that MCAS was a new system but not included in pilot training material which was an omission on their part. Are we to believe Boeing didn't mention MCAS to MAX crews prior to entry into service? Apparently.
The second link in the chain?

If the Ethiopian crew received this awareness training, wouldn't they have been better prepared for an MCAS event than the Lion Air crew?
The third link in the chain?

I think it would be prudent to ground the MAX fleets UFN.

As the saying goes, never two without three.

Gino Under
All good points. I think there were a lot of "Educated" guesses made by Boeing after the Lion air incident. There is a system/systems not functioning the way they were designed too and the checklist revision came out before any concrete evidence was produced.

Also, the country that knows the most about the first incident (Indonesia), has grounded their max fleet. That alone is enough for me to think we need to hit pause on these planes for a bit.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:43 pm

The Lion air accident will have the MCAS system as a factor. It was most definitely active during that flight - however a number of things stand out in that one.
First the last 3 legs had the same problem and each time the crew used the stab cutout switches to stop the trim.
Second - the crew got the stick shaker right at rotation and continued.
Third - they never used the cutout switches.
Forth - the crew actually lost control when the retracted the flaps....they then re-extended to flaps 5 and the system cut out as designed. Then then selected the flaps back up and fought the airplane till the end of the recording. Obviously the maintenance crew also failed in rectifying the problem.

You can take this with a grain of salt but there are some reports that witnesses to the Ehiopian flight saw smoke and debris coming from the aircraft while it swerved around the sky before diving into the ground. I would be hesitant to say this is the same issue.

If this turns out to be the same as the Lion air flight then there may be a fault or improvement Boeing could make in the system - but it is not a situation which is unrecoverable.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by confusedalot » Mon Mar 11, 2019 7:53 pm

I too would be hesitant at pointing fingers right now.

Flew the NG's, did sim evaluation on the MAX, after talking to my american airlines buddy who flies both, it is pretty darn clear that every single 737 pilot around the world is spring loaded to hitting those disable switches before you can say ''huh?''.

There is more to this story. Which nobody knows yet.
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