Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

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Heliian
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Heliian » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:49 am

boeingboy wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:33 am
Wow.....talk about an over-reaction from almost everybody. It's the herd mentality at it's worst.

It's now all about optics. If everyone else is doing it - you cant hold out forever. Of course - now you have joe blow public all in a tizzy and not wanting to fly on the Max. There has to be a worldwide grounding now.
The people have lost confidence in the 737 max 8, a temporary ban is the easiest thing at the moment until the facts come out. Joe blow public pays the damn bills.

Of course it's all about optics, I wouldn't want to be caught in a bad situation with a new plane that seems to be killing people for no good reason.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by TheStig » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:49 am

This is Senate testimony from almost 4 years ago, still true as ever.

Some lobbyists would like you to significantly roll back the 1,500-hour minimum. Short of that, they want the FAA to allow simulator and academic training hours to count toward meeting the 1,500-hour minimum. They see this as an easier, more convenient, less expensive path to getting young pilots into regional airline cockpits.

But there are no shortcuts to experience. There is no shortcut to safety. The standards are the standards because they are necessary.

Throughout the entire 112-year history of powered flight, one thing has been true. The most important safety device in any airliner is a well-trained, experienced pilot. That is even more true today, especially as we transition from my generation of pilots to the next. We must make sure that each generation of pilots has the same well learned, deeply internalized fundamental flying skills, the in-depth knowledge, experience, and judgment. And that is why pilot preparation, qualifications, screening, training—and experience—are so important.

CHESLEY B. “SULLY” SULLENBERGER III

-I don't know what Trump is tweeting about? Although I don't believe it's at all appropriate for him to be doing so. I'm sure he thinks aircraft systems are too complex because they are too complex for him to understand.

-I have nothing good to say about anything Gareau has accomplished as the MOT but believe our regulator has acted properly with respect to this issue. We don't know what happened yet. Remember when the AA A300 crashed in New York in late 2001? Did anyone believe it was anything other than terrorism?

-I've talked to a number of experienced 737 Pilots, NG and MAx, over the past 2 days all of them felt confident they could identify and handle this abnormality. If the MCAS system is found to be a contributing factor, the MAX will be grounded, it will be interesting to see if the system is changed or if pilot training will fix the issue? In the short term this is going to cost operators.

-Looking back to 2012 many thought Boeing would launch an all new aircraft to compete with the NEO as the NG had reached the engineering limits of its design. I think time will show that they simply took the cheapest path and nearly pulled off one of the greatest cash cows in aviation history. How was Bombardiers' C series ever supposed to complete with Boeing's ability to manufacture 60+ aircraft a month? Much like VW's cheat device, Boeing took a path less costly and now they're going to pay the price.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by rookiepilot » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:54 am

TheStig wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:49 am

-I've talked to a number of experienced 737 Pilots, NG and MAx, over the past 2 days all of them felt confident they could identify and handle this abnormality.
Key word?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by tsgas » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:08 am

boeingboy wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:33 am
Wow.....talk about an over-reaction from almost everybody. It's the herd mentality at it's worst.

It's now all about optics. If everyone else is doing it - you cant hold out forever. Of course - now you have joe blow public all in a tizzy and not wanting to fly on the Max. There has to be a worldwide grounding now.
So true, as they say " emotions have no logic". :shock:
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by FADEC » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:17 am

It seems that perhaps the tail of the MAX is too small to deal with the power on pitch up at low speeds; so, instead of using the elevator (stick pusher) they used the Trim System which is many times as powerful.

If the tail is too small, making it bigger would be a solution; one that Boeing clearly wanted to avoid. Software is cheaper; not necessarily better.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by 47north » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:53 am

boeingboy wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:33 am
Wow.....talk about an over-reaction from almost everybody. It's the herd mentality at it's worst.

It's now all about optics. If everyone else is doing it - you cant hold out forever. Of course - now you have joe blow public all in a tizzy and not wanting to fly on the Max. There has to be a worldwide grounding now.
Certainly makes the case for an airline to have multiple fleets. Going all in on one type can kill a company.

Maybe this will convince AC to increase their A220 order or order A320A331 NEOs to offset some of the risk.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by co-joe » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 am

Is there a case where MCAS has caused an undesirable trim that the crew recovered from successfully that anyone is aware of?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by altiplano » Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:06 pm

co-joe wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:55 am
Is there a case where MCAS has caused an undesirable trim that the crew recovered from successfully that anyone is aware of?
How many flights leading up to Lion Air crash did the pilots successfully deal with it? 3 or 4?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:43 pm

The previous 3 legs of Lion air.

And if you read the facts so far the accident crew actually had things stabilized before they reconfigured and then started fighting it again. They kept it up for 9 min I believe.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by MrWings » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:54 pm

Aux1 wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:44 am
boeingboy wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:33 am
Wow.....talk about an over-reaction from almost everybody. It's the herd mentality at it's worst.
Lion Air + Ethiopian = 346 lost souls.

Over-reaction?
No kidding.

Statistically, two crashes in a new aircraft type within 6 months during the same flight regime is grounds for a pause.

Purely economic reasons why NA fleet isn't grounded.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by mbav8r » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:14 pm

Regarding the “herd mentality”, I sure wouldn’t want to be the politician who didn’t ground the airplane if another goes down in their own backyard.
Safe than sorry, that being said I would still board my flight if I saw it was a max.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Mick G » Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:27 pm

No doubt Marc Garneau would probably change his tune a bit if he was personally flying on one of them, 18 Canadians ought to be enough for a precautionary grounding, if not but for at least the time it will take to get the confidence after the CVR and FDR are analysed which should be measured in days at most.

Having said this, I do however wonder how much AIRBUS lobbyists influenced the EU decision.......I imagine they are having a heyday with this.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Old fella » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:06 pm

Speaking as a fare paying customer(because that’s all I can speak from), I would have no difficulty as a passenger in ‘37Max with AC or WJ or any Canadian/US operator who utilizes that type. I have faith/confidence in North America carriers and their training/safety systems.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by FICU » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:29 pm

https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... cas-jt610/

Seems like a reasonable explaination of MCAS.

Max guys?
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by goingnowherefast » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:46 pm

18 Canadians died in the max. If a Q400 crashes tomorrow and 72 die, should we ground all Dash 8s? That's 4x as many citizens.

I say lets wait until black box data us uncovered before any rash decisions are made on grounding the fleets. Base decisions on hard evidence, not emotions
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Mick G » Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:49 pm

goingnowherefast wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:46 pm
18 Canadians died in the max. If a Q400 crashes tomorrow and 72 die, should we ground all Dash 8s? That's 4x as many citizens.

I say lets wait until black box data us uncovered before any rash decisions are made on grounding the fleets. Base decisions on hard evidence, not emotions
Only if it happened to two new Q400 under the same circumstances, then yes the entire fleet should be grounded.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by ant_321 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:21 pm

FICU wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:29 pm
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... cas-jt610/

Seems like a reasonable explaination of MCAS.

Max guys?
Yes. That’s the jist of it.

Also, Sunwing has grounded its Max’s.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by geodoc » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:45 pm

FICU wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:29 pm
https://theaircurrent.com/aviation-safe ... cas-jt610/

Seems like a reasonable explaination of MCAS.

Max guys?
here is probably the most concise explanation for what the hell the MCAS is for:

There is a cert requirement that as AOA increases, the nose up pilot command required must not decrease. This is demonstrated at fixed thrust levels so there is no change in thrust pitching moment. The 737MAX issue here that gives rise to the need for MCAS is that as AOA increases the lift provided by the engine cowling that is so large and mounted so far forward of the wing causes a nose up pitching moment that results is a decrease in the column pull needed to maintain a steady positive AOA rate. That characteristic is not compliant with the requirements. MCAS comes active during this maneuver putting in nose down stabilizer that must be countered by the column. The net effect of engine cowling lift and MCAS nose down stabilizer as AOA increases is that the column pull needed to complete the maneuver does not decrease part way through the range of AOA for which characteristics must be demonstrated. 737MAX without MCAS fails the cert demo. 737MAX with MCAS passes the cert demo.


.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by daedalusx » Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:57 pm

Always been a big fan of the Boeing product but I do believe they were extremely lazy and greedy in the case of the Max. It’s completely ridiculous from an engineering point of view to have this system running off the data of 1 AoA sensor. Absolute nonsense and there will be major penalties if it comes out that this crash was also linked to the MCAS misbehaving.

That being said, I’d have no problem flying with most Canadian or American carriers on the Max as I 100% trust that our pilots could recognize the issues and deal with it in a safe manner.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by boeingboy » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:19 pm

I wonder how everyone calling for this to be grounded - and costing companies billions of dollars - would say if the investigation in Africa shows it was say - a bomb? 1 lost due to crew and maintenance error, and one lost to terrorism. Sounds stupid to run around calling for it to be grounded doesn't it?
(disclaimer - I'm not saying the Ethiopia jet was bombed just playing devils advocate based on eyewitness accounts.....and that there is no evidence yet saying it wasn't either)

I do know that a major part of Boeings software fix is that if the aircraft finds it has an airspeed disagree - it will disable the MCAS and not let it operate in any situation. I agree this should have been done in the first place - but again - it's not an unrecoverable situation.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by telex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:22 pm

boeingboy wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:19 pm
I wonder how everyone calling for this to be grounded - and costing companies billions of dollars - would say if the investigation in Africa shows it was say - a bomb? 1 lost due to crew and maintenance error, and one lost to terrorism. Sounds stupid to run around calling for it to be grounded doesn't it?
(disclaimer - I'm not saying the Ethiopia jet was bombed just playing devils advocate based on eyewitness accounts.....and that there is no evidence yet saying it wasn't either)

I do know that a major part of Boeings software fix is that if the aircraft finds it has an airspeed disagree - it will disable the MCAS and not let it operate in any situation. I agree this should have been done in the first place - but again - it's not an unrecoverable situation.
Or you could lay off the weed for a week.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by av8ts » Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:50 am

I think this will go down as one of the largest social media caused global panics of all time.
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Jet Jockey » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:32 am

Found this on another forum and I don’t know how accurate the info is...

You do realize the MAX8 was to be given a different type rating but MCAS was the solution to allow Boeing and the carriers to get around that so no new type rating was required for their pilots. Only a couple hours training on the new systems.

The MAX8 flew significantly enough different it was going to be a different type until MCAS was added to make it behave the same. This saved a ton of training and certification costs.

The problem is when in a problem situation and MCAS is disabled the pilots are for all intents and purposes now flying a type they have not been trained on.

If you don't believe me just open your eyes... Many many many pilots are reporting these issues. The FAA anonymous reporting system is full of such complaints.

This was a boondoggle from Boeings and the FAA's side.

.......>>> is one example.

Rather important is that it was in fact considered to have substantially different enough behavior to warrant a required type rating for pilots, obviated due to the software abstraction provided by MCAS. However, this abstraction is effectively disabled when setting stabilizer trim to cutoff which is one of the later steps in the normal troubleshooting sequence. OK? So the airplane is in an emergency situation, with a flight characteristic normalizing software routine disabled, thereby making it possible for the airplane to exhibit the very behavior that pilots were never informed of, never trained for, and not required to have a type rating for, that MCAS existed for in the first place.
I think that's quite a lot more relevant than airline safety records. Ethiopian Airlines has a good recent safety record anyway. And the outcry, upon MCAS being publicly revealed, among the U.S. pilot community I also think demonstrates important relative concern.
And, quite a concerning story about U.S. 737 MAX pilots using the anonymous aviation safety reporting system to communicate their concerns, whether instead of or because of the normal channels for doing so.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/air ... 03/12/boei...
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by Airbrake » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:02 am

Update from the minister today.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/tr ... -1.4333935

OTTAWA - Transport Minister Marc Garneau is set to update Ottawa's position on the Boeing 737 Max 8, the aircraft that crashed in Ethiopia, and whether Canada will fall in line with other nations that have grounded the planes.
Garneau is scheduled to address Canada's plan and safety concerns regarding the Max 8, but it's not yet clear whether he will impose similar restrictions on the aircraft.

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The update comes after Toronto-based Sunwing Airlines announced late Tuesday that it is temporarily grounding its four Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft in the wake of the crash in Addis Ababa that killed all 157 people on board, including 18 Canadians.
Sunwing says it made the decision for "evolving commercial reasons" unrelated to safety, including airspace restrictions being imposed in other countries.
Garneau is facing an escalating dilemma over the aircraft, which is being grounded or banned by a growing number of countries after the accident that some experts have said has parallels to a Lion Air crash of the same model of aircraft in Indonesia that killed 189 people last October.

Garneau said Tuesday that he has no plans to ground Canada's fleet of the Max 8 aircraft, but that "all options are on the table."
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Re: Ethiopian Airlines: 'No survivors' on crashed Boeing 737 max

Post by GARRETT » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:47 am

This whole thing is just another horrible example money trumping safety. It'll never change. Money always has and always will trump safety no matter what the cute little SMS manual write up says. The 737 is a modern dinosaur, it should've been updated decades ago regardless whether it would require a new type rating or not. When I started on the NG/Max I was totally blown away by the fact we still had to manually select generators on after an engine start! It was truly disappointing to see the 60's logic still holding on. Even the old clapped out ATRs and even the BAE31 had automated generators FFS. Just shows you how far they will go to not require a separate type rating. Boeing just keeps stretching and subtly modifying this relic that has clearly reached it's maximum potential purely for the cost savings for them and Southwest. The Max is just lipstick on a pig.
I hope they figure this out soon and move forward from it.
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