Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

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Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR » Wed Nov 27, 2019 7:35 pm

The news is saying that emergency services have been searching near Kingston for a missing Cherokee Six for a few hours now...
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by waterdog » Wed Nov 27, 2019 8:14 pm

Plane has been found and is recovery now with no information on how many occupants.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Oxi » Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:27 pm

Kingston police confirm multiple fatalities in crash of small aircraft

https://globalnews.ca/news/6226948/king ... -west-end/
Kingston police have confirmed that multiple people have died in a plane crash in Kingston on Wednesday evening.

READ MORE: TSB investigating after man dies in plane crash near Sussex, N.B.

Det. Joel Fisher with the Kingston police says the aircraft was located in a heavily wooded area two kilometres west of Bayridge Drive and north of Creekford Road.

Fisher says police were made aware that a small aircraft had gone missing just after 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

At this time, Fisher would not comment about how many people were in the plane, where the plane had come from or where it was heading. Kingston police say they will not be releasing how many people died in the crash until further investigation is completed.

OPP confirmed that the aircraft is a Piper PA-32R model plane, which seats up to six people. The Transportation Safety Board says the plane is registered in the United States, and it was travelling from the Buttonville Airport in Toronto towards Kingston.
Kingston police have confirmed that multiple people have died in a plane crash in Kingston on Wednesday evening.

READ MORE: TSB investigating after man dies in plane crash near Sussex, N.B.

Det. Joel Fisher with the Kingston police says the aircraft was located in a heavily wooded area two kilometres west of Bayridge Drive and north of Creekford Road.

Fisher says police were made aware that a small aircraft had gone missing just after 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

At this time, Fisher would not comment about how many people were in the plane, where the plane had come from or where it was heading. Kingston police say they will not be releasing how many people died in the crash until further investigation is completed.

OPP confirmed that the aircraft is a Piper PA-32R model plane, which seats up to six people. The Transportation Safety Board says the plane is registered in the United States, and it was travelling from the Buttonville Airport in Toronto towards Kingston.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR » Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:02 am

I was landing at the Island on Porter last night at the time of the accident. As we descended, we broke out through a mixture of snow and rain, so I speculate the weather may not have been welcoming in the Kingston area either.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by gwagen » Thu Nov 28, 2019 11:40 am

Winds were pretty calm at the time. No sig precip.

I’m about 4nm from the crash site.

Retracted. Incorrect information
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Last edited by gwagen on Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly » Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:40 pm

The wind picked up a lot between 6pm and 7pm local time. Prior to that, poor vis and low cloud prevailed. Sunset was at 1630 local time, or 2130Z.

CYGK 272003Z 03006KT 3SM RA SCT030 OVC040 06/05 A2948 RMK SC3SC5 PRESRR SLP988
CYGK 272029Z 03008KT 4SM -RA BR FEW008 SCT028 OVC040 06/05 A2947 RMK SF1CU3SC4 SLP984
CYGK 272100Z 07010KT 4SM -RA BR FEW005 FEW020 OVC055 05/05 A2946 RMK SF1SC2SC5 SLP979
CYGK 272123Z 05009KT 4SM BR FEW010 SCT023 OVC040 05/05 A2943 RMK SC1SC4SC4 PRESFR SLP972
CYGK 272200Z 06005KT 5SM BR SCT007 OVC040 05/05 A2945 RMK SF3SC5 SLP978
CYGK 272213Z VRB02KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC035 06/05 A2946 RMK SF5SC3 SLP982
CYGK 272300Z 10006KT 3SM -RA BR BKN005 OVC040 06/06 A2946 RMK SF7SC1 SLP978
CYGK 280000Z 25018G32KT 6SM -RA BR FEW005 SCT024 OVC041 08/05 A2946 RMK SF2SC2SC4 SLP978
CYGK 280051Z 25022G34KT 8SM -SHRA FEW006 OVC040 07/04 A2949 RMK SF2SC6 CVCTV CLD EMBD SLP990
CYGK 280100Z 25022G33KT 8SM -SHRA FEW007 BKN040 OVC070 07/03 A2949 RMK SF1SC6AC1 CVCTV CLD EMBD SLP991


Useful load of a Saratoga is around 1500lbs.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by gwagen » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:06 pm

photofly wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 12:40 pm
The wind picked up a lot between 6pm and 7pm local time. Prior to that, poor vis and low cloud prevailed. Sunset was at 1630 local time, or 2130Z.

CYGK 272003Z 03006KT 3SM RA SCT030 OVC040 06/05 A2948 RMK SC3SC5 PRESRR SLP988
CYGK 272029Z 03008KT 4SM -RA BR FEW008 SCT028 OVC040 06/05 A2947 RMK SF1CU3SC4 SLP984
CYGK 272100Z 07010KT 4SM -RA BR FEW005 FEW020 OVC055 05/05 A2946 RMK SF1SC2SC5 SLP979
CYGK 272123Z 05009KT 4SM BR FEW010 SCT023 OVC040 05/05 A2943 RMK SC1SC4SC4 PRESFR SLP972
CYGK 272200Z 06005KT 5SM BR SCT007 OVC040 05/05 A2945 RMK SF3SC5 SLP978
CYGK 272213Z VRB02KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC035 06/05 A2946 RMK SF5SC3 SLP982
CYGK 272300Z 10006KT 3SM -RA BR BKN005 OVC040 06/06 A2946 RMK SF7SC1 SLP978
CYGK 280000Z 25018G32KT 6SM -RA BR FEW005 SCT024 OVC041 08/05 A2946 RMK SF2SC2SC4 SLP978
CYGK 280051Z 25022G34KT 8SM -SHRA FEW006 OVC040 07/04 A2949 RMK SF2SC6 CVCTV CLD EMBD SLP990
CYGK 280100Z 25022G33KT 8SM -SHRA FEW007 BKN040 OVC070 07/03 A2949 RMK SF1SC6AC1 CVCTV CLD EMBD SLP991


Useful load of a Saratoga is around 1500lbs.
Plane went down at 5pm.

Made initial contact with tower after entering zone. Was to report back on final. Didn’t.

Retracted. Incorrect information.
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Last edited by gwagen on Thu Nov 28, 2019 10:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:10 pm

I didn't say they were or weren't over gross. I just gave some data.

Checking around, I read the weight of '94 Saratoga II is 2500lb but the weight of a 1980 PA-32R is 2000lbs. Both with 3600lbs max gross. Do you know which this was?
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Kirk: This is a dangerous mission. Likely, one of us will die. The landing party will be me, Spock, McCoy, and Ensign Ricky.
Ensign Ricky: Aw, crap.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by gwagen » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:21 pm

photofly wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:10 pm
I didn't say they were or weren't over gross. I just gave some data.

Checking around, I read the weight of '94 Saratoga II is 2500lb but the weight of a 1980 PA-32R is 2000lbs. Both with 3600lbs max gross. Do you know which this was?
Right from the POH
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by gwagen » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:29 pm

gwagen wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:21 pm
photofly wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:10 pm
I didn't say they were or weren't over gross. I just gave some data.

Checking around, I read the weight of '94 Saratoga II is 2500lb but the weight of a 1980 PA-32R is 2000lbs. Both with 3600lbs max gross. Do you know which this was?
Right from the POH

My source says newer turbo version. Not confirmed, but reliable.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by North Shore » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:34 pm

Geez :shock: ...not sure that I'd be setting off VFR into wx like that with darkness coming on.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by whistlerboy02 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:34 pm

My fixed gear Saratoga has a useful load of 1420 lbs. It burns 16 gal/hour on average. 6 aduts (3 couples)and 3 hours fuel is doable and the strength of the toga. I cant speak to this accident but I can say the Saratoga is a hauler. Newer versions with retract, air conditioning and heavy interiors certainly carry less. I think your a little quick to guess this accident was caused by an overweight AC
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by rookiepilot » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:52 pm

North Shore wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:34 pm
Geez :shock: ...not sure that I'd be setting off VFR into wx like that with darkness coming on.
No thank you, no......This was a vfr flight?
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by '97 Tercel » Thu Nov 28, 2019 1:59 pm

The plane didn't just stop flying and crash because it's overweight, unless something else more significant went on.

Maybe icing or engine failure? - havent heard whether there was a mayday call
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly » Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:02 pm

The weather at CYOO for the duration was:

CYOO 272009Z AUTO 11006KT 6SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN016 BKN021 OVC033 07/07 A2937 RMK SLP951
CYOO 272034Z AUTO 10007KT 7SM FEW005 SCT017 BKN026 OVC080 07/07 A2938 RMK SLP955
CYOO 272047Z AUTO 15007KT 130V280 9SM BKN024 BKN032 OVC080 08/08 A2940 RMK SLP959
CYOO 272100Z AUTO VRB06KT 9SM SCT011 BKN026 BKN036 OVC060 08/08 A2941 RMK SLP962
CYOO 272200Z AUTO 18004KT 9SM SCT039 BKN046 BKN055 BKN072 08/07 A2944 RMK SLP972
CYOO 272231Z AUTO 20010KT 9SM -RA BKN040 BKN048 OVC060 07/06 A2945 RMK SLP976
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Last edited by photofly on Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Kirk: This is a dangerous mission. Likely, one of us will die. The landing party will be me, Spock, McCoy, and Ensign Ricky.
Ensign Ricky: Aw, crap.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly » Thu Nov 28, 2019 2:13 pm

My error. It was N50DK, a 1965 PIPER PA-32-260. Departed runway 15 eastbound at 2059Z.
I don't see anything to suggest it was overweight. There's no record on Flightaware of an instrument flight plan. You can draw your own conclusions about an after dark VFR flight in those conditions.

Noting that we don't know who was the pilot, the airplane was purchased by its current owner in March of this year; it was his first airplane. He got his private pilot airman certificate in May 2018. He didn't hold an instrument rating.
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Kirk: This is a dangerous mission. Likely, one of us will die. The landing party will be me, Spock, McCoy, and Ensign Ricky.
Ensign Ricky: Aw, crap.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by 7ECA » Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:49 pm

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/k ... -1.5376446

Pilot identified as Otabek Oblokulov of Houston, Texas, as well as his wife and two children and another couple.

Judging by the photo released by the TSB, it looks like the aircraft was in one piece upon impact and likely in a near vertical manner - as the wreckage appears to be localized to one small area.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by C.W.E. » Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:47 pm

What a truly sad accident.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by jd832 » Thu Nov 28, 2019 4:55 pm

From the FAA Airmen Registry:


OTABEK OBLOKULOV

MISSOURI CITY TX 77489-1309
County: FORT BEND
Country: USA

Medical Information:
Medical Class: Third Medical Date: 11/2017

BasicMed Course Date: None BasicMed CMEC Date: None
Certificates
PRIVATE PILOT

Certificates Description
Certificate: PRIVATE PILOT
Date of Issue: 5/21/2018

Ratings:
PRIVATE PILOT
AIRPLANE SINGLE ENGINE LAND
Limits:
ENGLISH PROFICIENT.

He went to the same flight school I went to and crashes not far from where I live. Small world. He's a long way from home in a very foreign region for the level of experience he has, flying in MVFR-IFR in icing conditions with his entire family and friends onboard. We had a guy do the same in Colorado years ago in a C-182 Skylane again on a VFR flight in MVFR with only a PPL. He got disoriented and flew into the side of a mountain at a very steep nose down angle.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by valleyboy » Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:20 pm

While this is a tragic and sad event it's the type of accident(going from conditions) that pisses me off and it's very upsetting. It was totally preventable and bad decision making of a low time pilot took several lives. The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR » Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:33 pm

The news reports that the flight was planned Buttonville to Quebec City. For that, any of us would have departed full tanks. Full tanks & full seats in a Cherokee Six does not allow much room for handling errors. If, when in poor visibility, he lost control, the plane would build up speed very quickly.

Our flight training and aviation promotion systems fail to present new pilots with enough real world wisdom to scare them into better decision making. And, having "another couple" aboard increases the pressure to continue, when on your own, or with just your family, you might just stay the night, and continue the next morning.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by pelmet » Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:51 pm

valleyboy wrote:
Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:20 pm
The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02
Not sure what specific failure, from a weather point of view, there was.

There would have been weather reports and forecasts for Buttonville, Oshawa, Trenton, and Kingston along with a GFA. Assuming they were accurate, it seems like more than enough info to make a well-informed decision.

Looks like marginal conditions with low light and low experience.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by Heliian » Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:15 pm

Most recent update, 4 adults and 3 children. Their intended destination was Kingston, 6 km from the airport is where the impact was. At that distance, he should have had a clear shot. Tsb on scene.

A terrible tragedy for the families, my condolences.
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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by photofly » Thu Nov 28, 2019 6:46 pm

There's no weather forecast or observation available at Buttonville, but CYTZ and CYYZ were obviously available.

Let's sum up the risk factors involved in this flight:

*an inexperienced pilot
*in a new-to-him (six months) aircraft
*marginal weather (at best)
*at night
*with limited night flight time (only 5 hours night time required for US PPL, no night rating)
*no instrument rating
*with wife on board
*with all three children on board
*with guests on board
*with a fully loaded aircraft
*in a foreign country
*on a route he'd never flown before

By the way, it wasn't a Saratoga - it was a Cherokee 6 - fixed gear. They have higher useful loads:
https://airplanehub.com/listing/airplane/69
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Kirk: This is a dangerous mission. Likely, one of us will die. The landing party will be me, Spock, McCoy, and Ensign Ricky.
Ensign Ricky: Aw, crap.

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Re: Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

Post by PilotDAR » Thu Nov 28, 2019 7:07 pm

Let's add one more important direct risk factor to that list:

A pilot who may have had little or no experience flying in winter freezing conditions.

Then the reality that that many risk factors simply sum to be additional risk, just because there are so many risk factors for that flight!

Every pilot is responsible for balancing risk. It sounds silly, but sometimes a pilot should actually do a written risk analysis of a flight. I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....
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