Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

[C.W.E.]

I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....

I agree, it is well worth the time to do it.

[Illya Kuryakin]

I was landing at the Island on Porter last night at the time of the accident. As we descended, we broke out through a mixture of snow and rain, so I speculate the weather may not have been welcoming in the Kingston area either.

After all, Kingston always shares its weather with Toronto Island.

[CpnCrunch]

Looks like the GFA was accurate:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=006

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

2 hours prior to that, the trowal would presumably have been right over Kingston. Not sure why anyone would fly a small plane VFR in that weather.

[rookiepilot]

I was flying as an observer with a government (not Canada) flight operation many years ago. Every flight they flew had a written risk analysis prepared before the flight, with a copy taken on the flight, and a copy left at dispatch. There's something to that....

I agree, it is well worth the time to do it.

Why this isn't specifically taught to new PPL's as part of ground school?

I recognize good instructors do this throughout training, but it seems unevenly applied.

And no, a one page chat on risk management doesn't cut it.

[photofly]

Looks like the GFA was accurate:

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=006

http://gfaarchive.info/gfaDisplay.php?r ... Offset=000

2 hours prior to that, the trowal would presumably have been right over Kingston. Not sure why anyone would fly a small plane VFR in that weather.

Holy crap!

I"m going to guess that as a US pilot he didn't have much knowledge of Canadian weather products, because nobody in their right minds would take seven people on a night VFR flight in that.

[valleyboy]

Not sure what specific failure, from a weather point of view, there was.

Just to clarify, I meant the training system not the tools you use to plan and conduct a flight. It boils down to risk assessment and decision making. Likely the main causes of tragedy in general aviation.

[Kejidog]

While this is a tragic and sad event it's the type of accident(going from conditions) that pisses me off and it's very upsetting. It was totally preventable and bad decision making of a low time pilot took several lives. The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02

I do not think it was a “failure” of any system or any lack of training. Taking the responsibility for 6 lives plus your own in a 6 seat airplane in marginal weather is not “fixed” by lessons. It is judgement pure and simple. We were all low time pilots and we lived through it i as a 400 h private pilot with my own plane have been in the same go/no go situation. Is my life or my kids worth the price of losing a hotel reservation? You bet it is. And trying to fix a “system” that THOUSANDS of pilots have operated under for one person is a stupid solution.

[valleyboy]

Very well but how did you learn to make your decisions. My point is that the there is very little attention paid to the most important part of being a pilot. Type "A" personalities have problems dealing with the go or no go scenario. Obviously some kind of agenda he was sticking to, we will likely never know but why would you leave at that time of the day in that wx and be VFR. Something lacking there. They teach all the regulations and such during training but I have not seen anything on human Factors until advanced training. I knew a guy who never got an instrument rating but flew under IMC as long as wx was good at both ends. He used his autopilot to fly instruments and climb up on top in uncontrolled airspace. He survived but left quite a bit of twisted metal behind him with more than one incident. It seems to me that even more low time pilots are getting a lot of their decision making ideas by osmosis. Think back during your training, did you as a pilot trainee ever cancel a training flight because of conditions or was it the school calling the shots. You build a little time under their control and then you purchase you own aircraft. It's all on you now and in my mind most general aviation flyers should be "fair wx flyers" and achieve the level they wish to take their passion. If you just want to puddle jump in a cub then stick to good wx and if you want high performance and IFR get the training but still don't mess with wx. and certainly consider passengers. I've seen several accidents close to me and lost several people that were friends and a acquaintances and all accidents were because of pilot error and human factors. That is nothing new and percentages are getting bigger because of aircraft reliability. There H has been a few small plane accidents thus year and yes some with high time pilots. Just shows decision making and human factors is not about logged hours completely.

[photofly]

Well this flight ended at about the same time as the autopilot (STEC30) would have been disengaged. Go figure.

It looks like seven victims of a severe case of get-there-itis.

[Skymark]

Haven't seen anyone ask this yet, but how do you get 7 people in a 6 seater aircraft? Youngest was 3, so all should be in seats. As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.

[shabadoo]

While this is a tragic and sad event it's the type of accident(going from conditions) that pisses me off and it's very upsetting. It was totally preventable and bad decision making of a low time pilot took several lives. The system also failed him by not giving him the tools to make that choice to delay until truly good VFR and day light. It is likely a CFIT or disorientation and lose of control due to black hole. It looks like end of cival twilight was 17:02

I do not think it was a “failure” of any system or any lack of training. Taking the responsibility for 6 lives plus your own in a 6 seat airplane in marginal weather is not “fixed” by lessons. It is judgement pure and simple. We were all low time pilots and we lived through it i as a 400 h private pilot with my own plane have been in the same go/no go situation. Is my life or my kids worth the price of losing a hotel reservation? You bet it is. And trying to fix a “system” that THOUSANDS of pilots have operated under for one person is a stupid solution.

HERE HERE!

His poor kids trusted dad to keep them safe. This is f***ing terrible in every way.

[PilotDAR]

It is judgement pure and simple. .......

His poor kids trusted dad to keep them safe.

Yes, but, low experience pilots may need to be taught what to judge, and what is safe. If a pilot lacks that understanding of what to be scared of, or cautious about, their judgement as to "safe" may be offset so as to be useless in a new situation - particularly a "southern" pilot in a winter weather situation. When things began to come unraveled, and the lack of judgement became evident, things had already progressed to the point where the pilot skills were no there to manage/recover the situation, then seven people were along for the ride.

I opine that this will turn out to be an accident with a cause similar to that of JFK junior.

This accident will be/should be a case study for student pilots in decision making, it'll be one of the few legacies that this pilot can leave the flying community.

And, in more than forty years of flying, only once did I ever put my entire family in one private plane with me - my choice.

[172_Captain]

Haven't seen anyone ask this yet, but how do you get 7 people in a 6 seater aircraft? Youngest was 3, so all should be in seats. As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.

Are you trolling? This has been discussed ad nauseam in page 1.

[anofly]

Plenty of Cherokee 6 have a jump seat, fits between two of back seats making room for 7.... its small....

[rookiepilot]

- particularly a "southern" pilot in a winter weather situation.

This accident will be/should be a case study for student pilots in decision making, it'll be one of the few legacies that this pilot can leave the flying community.

Or Canadian pilots in Florida thunderstorms, or flatlanders in Colorado......

[photofly]

As it looks like they were on a trip (coming from Texas) I would also think those 7 people would also have a baggage? Seems a bit overloaded.

Two were friends who lived in Toronto - the ride up from the US was just the parents and three children.

[trey kule]

So here was a man who loved aviation. Who was passionate about flying. And who bought himself a nice plane.

And on a flight ,it all ended in a terrible tragedy. 7 people died.

And on AvCanada a pack of ghouls forms to dissect this tragedy as if no one would care
A learning experience? Bullshit.
From what I read in these posts it was one person after another speculating to prove how clever they are,or to be the first to have guessed the cause. Or just throwing in some useless facts. Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot...not one bit....maybe a bit of lip service before wildly speculating,

The weather at some removed airport! Speculation about his skills..gross and empty weights! Anything to tear down a fellow aviator who cant defend himself. Just to make yourself feel superior.

No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?

Sit back for a moment and ask your self how it would be to read a thread like this if it was your relatives.

There are few new causes of accidents. The TSB will eventually issue their findings. And that will be just fine as a learning exercise for those who really want to learn.

In the meantime how about we all show some respect for the seven people who lost their lives.

[photofly]

To be honest, the only emotion I have towards this guy is anger. Maybe respect will come, but I doubt it. I am sorry about his wife, his three children, and the other couple. So very sorry.

Yesterday was a great time to be learning some lessons; while my friends and family were hearing about it on the news, and asking me about it. In eighteen months time, it's going to be another statistic, another dispassionate accident analysis, and some grave chin-holding and nodding. Let it make an impression now, while things are still raw.

Does the actual cause of the accident matter? Not at all. If it turns out that the engine blew up, or the pilot had a coronary - are we going to turn around and say, "ah well, we thought it was a risky flight, but we were all wrong - nothing to see here, nothing to learn, after all"? The very finger of the Almighty might as well have poked down from the heavens and dashed the plane to pieces: the chain of poor decision-making and risk factors remains unchanged. That's what people should pay attention to.

[rookiepilot]

I have to agree with PF. Doesn't matter what the cause was.

In my view, night VFR for us private guys, had better be severe clear or close to it for the most part. "Marginal" and "night" don't mix too well. Unfamiliar terrain and lower experience levels, just place already high risks through the roof.

Probably dozens of these kinda of flights are concluded successfully, this one wasn't.

It's a worthwhile study in risk management.

I'm also not out to demonize this pilot or place my decisions above his. I have done night VFR flights I wouldn't do again, in good weather but over inappropriate terrain. (Algonquin park)

This accident truly, profoundly saddens me.

[PilotDAR]

No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?

Oh... I have made so many! Nearly died in one. Written about many others here, in the hope that newer pilots might consider what I think threatened the safety of my flight, could also threaten the safety of theirs. Maybe they're more skillful than I, or maybe more lucky....

In the mean time, the unfortunate pilot made some errors. However, more importantly to me, and not for the first time, people and pilots around him made some omissions.

Of course the pilot did not want to embark on a flight of danger, much less fatal - I give him the benefit of any doubt that he just did not give it enough consideration to balance the risk. Why did he not give it enough consideration? He does not appear in the videos to be bull headed, he seems a genuine caring pilot. So, I suppose that he just did not use the information he had available, to make a different decision, before it was too late.

I know not what weather he encountered enroute. I do know that the weather he chose to depart in would give me the shivers! My risk benefit analysis of departing in that weather at night at all, let alone with a plane load of people, would have resulted in a decision different to his. This, because I have departed in that type of weather, and lived to regret that decision, or, allowing another pilot to make that decision, and take me along.

So, we ll bear responsibility for this sad event.

Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot

I respect all pilots, including those who read here. I hope to impress newer pilots by inspiring them to consider their choices, before they have no choices left. Yes, in the past, I have quietly, and diplomatically said to an unknown pilot: "I would not be going flying right now", in the hope that annoying advice they did not ask, might be considered to alter a decision they were appearing to make. I have certainly told a fellow pilot who did not know any better that they should be scared right now, while in flight.

This sad event is a learning opportunity for new pilots, so should be discussed. More to the point, it is a reminder to we experienced pilots that we should not sit by silently, and let this kind of thing reoccur. How many accidents could I have prevented, had I been able to speak with the pilot about the risk of that flight, as my experience knew it to be, before they decided to fly....

This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....

Yes, seven people died, and that is very sad. It is a very sad milestone in aviation to incite discussion. I have also taken the opportunity to post to avoid such circumstances, without loss of life being the opener.