Cherokee Six missing near Kingston?

[Cliff Jumper]

Night began at 502pm.

Accident ocurred at 503pm.

---corrected.

[photofly]

Night began at 514pm.

Accident ocurred at 503pm.

In Toronto. Kingston is 12 mins earlier.

For example, Civil twilight ends and night begins today at 1714 in Toronto, and 1702 local, in Kingston, and hasn’t moved much in three days.

[Cliff Jumper]

Correct. My mistake.

[RatherBeFlying]

It's darker sooner with a low overcast, depending on how thick the clouds are - unless the setting sun breaks through below the cloud deck.

[CpnCrunch]

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2019/11/29/ ... continues/

Residents in the area also noted there was heavy rain and strong winds around the time of the crash.

“I was amazed that anybody was even flying last night because there was lots of notice that this windstorm was coming,” said Rob Gibson, who lives near the site of the crash.

[parallel60]

No one here has ever made an error in judgement...right?

Oh... I have made so many! Nearly died in one. Written about many others here, in the hope that newer pilots might consider what I think threatened the safety of my flight, could also threaten the safety of theirs. Maybe they're more skillful than I, or maybe more lucky....

In the mean time, the unfortunate pilot made some errors. However, more importantly to me, and not for the first time, people and pilots around him made some omissions.

Of course the pilot did not want to embark on a flight of danger, much less fatal - I give him the benefit of any doubt that he just did not give it enough consideration to balance the risk. Why did he not give it enough consideration? He does not appear in the videos to be bull headed, he seems a genuine caring pilot. So, I suppose that he just did not use the information he had available, to make a different decision, before it was too late.

I know not what weather he encountered enroute. I do know that the weather he chose to depart in would give me the shivers! My risk benefit analysis of departing in that weather at night at all, let alone with a plane load of people, would have resulted in a decision different to his. This, because I have departed in that type of weather, and lived to regret that decision, or, allowing another pilot to make that decision, and take me along.

So, we ll bear responsibility for this sad event.

Respect for the deceased. A fellow pilot

I respect all pilots, including those who read here. I hope to impress newer pilots by inspiring them to consider their choices, before they have no choices left. Yes, in the past, I have quietly, and diplomatically said to an unknown pilot: "I would not be going flying right now", in the hope that annoying advice they did not ask, might be considered to alter a decision they were appearing to make. I have certainly told a fellow pilot who did not know any better that they should be scared right now, while in flight.

This sad event is a learning opportunity for new pilots, so should be discussed. More to the point, it is a reminder to we experienced pilots that we should not sit by silently, and let this kind of thing reoccur. How many accidents could I have prevented, had I been able to speak with the pilot about the risk of that flight, as my experience knew it to be, before they decided to fly....

This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....

Yes, seven people died, and that is very sad. It is a very sad milestone in aviation to incite discussion. I have also taken the opportunity to post to avoid such circumstances, without loss of life being the opener.

Amazing post Pilot Dar. I've flown the PA-32 and unfortunately made some bad decisions to go flying when I shouldn't have. I got lucky, and nothing happened. When I read this report it resonated with me. I've been flying commercially since 2003 and flown left seat on Airliners and when I look back, I still found flying that PA-32 in day and night VFR to be the most challenging flying I've ever done. So much can go wrong in a single engine VFR. Others may disagree and say that single flying was the easiest for them, no problem at all, I am just stating the type of flying I found to be the most challenging. I agree PilotDAR that if only one Pilot becomes a little bit safer after reading this thread than every post in here was worth it.

NEVER underestimate the potential hazards in Flying, or prepare to pay the ultimate price. I CARE about every Pilot and their Families and Friends, please fly safe all.

[anofly]

I will grant the departure weather looked "ok", near YOO and YTZ and YYZ so a somewhat local flight was going to work. I would be interested in the Trenton weather around departure time.
The GFA was indicating pretty tough ceilings and vis, for a vfr flight of any distance on that day.
It has been my experience when there is "scattered" cloud sitting beneath broken or overcast layers, and temps are dropping like they often do as the sun gets on with setting,somewhere nearby, not covered by a single point weather observation station, is something a lot more like broken ,and or overcast.
So i would be counting on finding some of that.
One has to keep in mind the sum of the GFA, Metars, TAF. not to mention Radar, freezing level, and daylight .
Would anyone have made that flight VFR if there were no metar reporting points? and the GFA was the only tool?
The GFA is never perfect, but its pretty darn good ,and somewhere out there , there is usually some of what they are serving up.
I understand we dont know everything about why this one went down. It is usually pretty rare to have airframe failure. It is not altogether impossible that control was lost, due to one or more challenges.
Sad for all involved, and SO close to a safe landing in Kingston...

[PA32pilot]

I am writing this not about the tragedy near Kingston, but in reply to those who think more training would help make better decision making. I am an IFR rated private pilot with 2000 hours on our Cherokee 6 . We have flown all over the US and Canada and cope with local weather phenomena. Almost every piece of aviation literature that I read has articles about weather, decision making, icing, VFR into IFR and risk management. No instructor could have taught me all I needed to know to deal with these situations. What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?

[photofly]

Unfortunately the person who should answer that question is no longer able to.

[corethatthermal]

What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?

SPOT ON !

[PilotDAR]

What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?

I very much agree. And, I observe that many pilots earn their PPL, seemingly think that they "have arrived", and the training phase of flying is over. Someone, somewhere had told them they'd done well, and they relaxed. Perhaps the only time they realized they really should have been trying to learn more, was things were beyond recovery.

I recall just before my helicopter flight test, my instructor said to me in a mentoring way: "You've already proven you're a helicopter pilot, you just have to fly the test as a formality." Yes, it was reassuring. But, I recall doing a rather poor job of the autorotation, as the final exercise. I told the examiner that I though I did it poorly, and wanted to do it again for my own pride and satisfaction. He said I'd done fine (which I had not), and that I'd passed the flight test, and go back to the pad. I remember feeling a little cheated, I needed to do better, and needed more mentoring. The examiner could do it, but chose not to. I went back for more auto practice, there, and at other opportunities too. I'm still not as good as I'd like to be.

So yes, self motivated learning. But what motivates? The understanding that you don't know it all, with a fresh PPL, you know 5%, and the learning should just be beginning, with the same caution as during your initial training - 'cause now, no one has your back, unless you're specifically asking!

[Cleared4TheOption]

I am writing this not about the tragedy near Kingston, but in reply to those who think more training would help make better decision making. I am an IFR rated private pilot with 2000 hours on our Cherokee 6 . We have flown all over the UgS and Canada and cope with local weather phenomena. Almost every piece of aviation literature that I read has articles about weather, decision making, icing, VFR into IFR and risk management. No instructor could have taught me all I needed to know to deal with these situations. What ever happened to ongoing, self-motivated learning instead of having to be taught everything?

***This is not an attack on the pilot, it's a learning opportunity***


While I agree that you can't be taught everything, a margin of safety needs to exist when you are self-learning new things. Learn from other's mistakes because you will never live to make them all yourself. Given what little I know, there was very little safety margin on this particular flight.

While 2000hrs is no small number for a private pilot, I hope you don't think that you've seen it all or that there is nothing left to learn. Myself I've been flying for almost 17 years and 4000hrs and I know I have TONS to learn. I make sure to consider my limits and leave a buffer. When self-learning new things that buffer needs to be much bigger in relation to the risk. From what I understand, this pilot had been flying for 2 years and I doubt over 1000hrs. 1000hrs is just enough time to get yourself into trouble due to over confidence in your abilities and thinking you don't need that buffer anymore. Again, learning by experience is fine but you need to have a plan if things go wrong or are beyond what you thought to expect, and don't take others with you when the risks are high. It's unlikely this pilot could have been taught anything to change the outcome of this flight. What could have been taught better was how big a risk this kind of flight is, and you won't "self learn" that lesson unless you almost kill yourself. Tragically, if this wasn't some freak incapacitation or structural failure he likely realized how big a mistake he make in the final minutes of his life. Had I been in his place ALONE without passengers I would have thought "This is it, I hope I don't kill anyone else on the way down". Unfortunately he had to think "I just killed my family and friends". That's painful.

I don't know what caused this accident. It could have been medical, it could have been a goose came through the windscreen, it could have been engine/structural failure, fuel starvation, a bag blocked a critical control, C of G shift, distraction by passengers, icing, turbulence or spacial disorientation. All I know is that if we are discussing the risks involved with this flight and learning from experience, this is an example of high risk with little consideration for a safety margin.

From a risk point of view it was very high. Low experience pilot (probably), unfamiliar area, low ceilings, patchy very low cloud and poor vis in precipitation, high winds and turbulence, moderate icing in cloud and precipitation, low light/night, max gross weight, single piston, no ice protection, no instrument rating (did the aircraft have IFR equipment?), no night rating, plenty of distraction onboard and probably pressure to get to their vacation destination asap due to reservations/limited time. Oh boy, that's a serious list. If I were even to consider a flight like that, it's not going to be with passengers knowing I am seriously risking my life. If everything goes perfect sure it will work out, but fly into a cloud and freezing drizzle without knowing until you notice you lost 25 knots... what now? Descend to warmer air? What if there is none? Turn back? Which way is clear air? How far is it? If the engine quits can you even find a clearing? If you loose your AH and the ceiling drops how are you going to stay upright? Even if he had 10000hrs that wouldn't make much difference except that different decisions would have been made.

All of that to say with all those risks there was no margin for error or failure. No way to get himself out of trouble if something unexpected happened, and did happen whatever that was. Even if the flight was in daylight there would have been few options, night/low light just took what little was left away.

And those quoting METARs and TAFs... a METAR only gives the weather directly over the airport, a TAF only gives the expected weather within 5 miles. What you encounter en route can be and often is significantly different especially with the weather that day. Also, the weather was moving east so big whoop it was nicer in Toronto, they were leaving the backside of the system to fly back into it. North Bay went to 3/8SM SN about 20 minutes before the wind died down and ceiling lifted.

For the record I was flying on the accident day in a much more capable aircraft... it was NOT easy.

[pelmet]

This is the information age, and many more pilots read here, than post. Hopefully, those new pilots who choose to read, and those experienced pilots, who know that they influence, will be reminded to act, to prevent these types of accidents, rather than to sit back and wait for the TSB to issue a report, and hope someone reads it then. If, between now, and the time the TSB report is published, one pilot reads this thread, and reminds themselves of these circumstances before they undertake a flight in challenging conditions, perhaps we - experienced pilots, saved some lives by speaking up....

Excellent point. My distaste hits a high when someone trying to prevent these accidents in such a manner as described by PilotDAR yet is needlessly criticized by unidentifiable posters making some sort of personal attack, typically completely off subject. We should all be trying to do as is mentioned in the paragraph above.

Waiting for more facts is definitely a good idea, but there is certainly nothing wrong with discussing in a reasonable manner whether a low time pilot departing into certain conditions was a wise idea, even if those conditions did not cause an accident.

[trey kule]

Great. Lets discuss whether low time pilots should depart into poor weather.
And what can be done to help them make good decisions.

My previous point was two fold:
1. I do not think we have to do this after a recent tragedy. And , without facts, stating things like the pilot took off in deteriorating or bad weather. Course “I would never do that., “and
2. I think that basic PDM should not be about specific accidents. Just as few consider themselves part of the statistical group of unsafe drivers when they use their cellphone while driving, my experiences with pilots is they don’t relate in a meaningful way. Not too many posters on these threads who state ‘ there but for the grace of God, go I’.....and then actually change their decision making parameters.

Allow me to simplify it. Until you get a fair bit of experience at judging the outcome of your weather decisions, be very very cautious.
If you need to scare yourself finding the outcome of a decision was not as expected to learn, or can only learn by relating to tragedies , have a chat with yourself, hit the books and study weather...not just how to read a METAR or TAF, but things like how the METAR can give you an indication of the accuracy of the GFA. I have met alot of new CPL pilots who could not do this,
And...from me personally. Night VFR,outside the circuit, is IFR only. Remember that, and make absolute certain your aircraft is equipped for any forecast weather along route, and night time accidents will almost disappear.

[CpnCrunch]

without facts, stating things like the pilot took off in deteriorating or bad weather.

But we do have the facts about the weather. We have the GFA, which was incredibly shitty 6hrs before, didn't change at the 0hr (or got worse...they added the freezing rain, which is somewhat predictable from a TROWAL), and we know the actual weather was incredibly shitty as well.

The benefit of reading accident reports and discussing accidents like this is that it builds up a bank of knowledge and how aircraft systems work (and fail), what are the risks of various types of weather, etc.

[photofly]

1. I do not think we have to do this after a recent tragedy.

Of course we do. It's exactly the right time to do it. Some people don't think about these issues. The accident pilot certainly didn't. Maybe a headline about FOUR DEAD ADULTS AND THREE DEAD CHILDREN will get these worthwhile ideas into a few more heads.

[trey kule]

Really?

You have to read about a tragic end for seven people to learn not to take off or fly in bad weather? To learn that night VFR has some hidden hazards? Not to fly over gross?

Or maybe it is all about reminding people that these are important things a pilot should actually know (without being reminded)

I fail to understand why a case study could not be made on a similar accident from, say , five years ago.

When these accidents occur they affect families, friends, even associates of those lost.
Is the lust for fresh blood so strong that we must all jump in and speculate.

There are few new causes of accidents . And lots of old ones where all the facts are available to discuss them in detail.

Read the posts here. Everyone is piling on adding or arguing facts. How many people reading this said “gosh, I guess I learned not to fly in bad weather”? You don’t see much evidence of that reading through the posts.

[photofly]

Really?

You have to read about a tragic end for seven people to learn not to take off or fly in bad weather?

This story is recent, widely reported outside of the aviation bubble, and (to me) local. Family and friends have raised it for discussion. It resonates. I think a lot of people, including some junior pilots, have learned a real lesson from this. In a way they might not from a five-year-old case study from before they first looked at an airplane. I don't see why the online response should be any different from the face-to-face one. It should be widely talked about, not hushed up out of "respect" - that benefits nobody. Who knows what sources of information or discussion that Mr. Oblokulov might have read in his past would have steered him to make different decisions last week. Maybe reading this thread will help the next person.

How many people reading this said “gosh, I guess I learned not to fly in bad weather”? You don’t see much evidence of that reading through the posts.

There are maybe 10 contributors, and 6092 views of this thread. It has clearly been read by some who have not contributed to it. I couldn't say for sure who has learned what, but I think it has been worthwhile.

[jakeandelwood]

Whenever a tragic accident like this happens it always gives me a bit of a shudder and makes me think to myself how vulnerable we are and that it just takes 4 or 5 bad decisions in a row until the shit hits the fan. Reading these discussions helps to maybe see how everything lined up to cause this accident.

[rookiepilot]

Whenever a tragic accident like this happens it always gives me a bit of a shudder and makes me think to myself how vulnerable we are and that it just takes 4 or 5 bad decisions in a row until the shit hits the fan. Reading these discussions helps to maybe see how everything lined up to cause this accident.

This.

It's each pilot, processing the chain of events that makes this thread valuable.