Ukraine International PS752

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ReserveTank
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Ukraine International PS752

Post by ReserveTank » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:38 pm

Crashed this morning a few minutes after takeoff from Tehran. Video shows that it was on fire prior to hitting the ground. Emergency crews on site. No survivors expected.

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ukra ... om-tehran/

With video:
https://heavy.com/news/2020/01/ukrainia ... hran-iran/
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P-40
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by P-40 » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:03 pm

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/worl ... raine.html

Of course the Iranians are going to state it was a technical issue. Other unsubstantiated reports are already stating it was mistakenly shot down in the climb by the Iranians.

Iran hurling missiles at American bases in Iraq and a Ukranian 737-800 mysteriously goes down on departure whilst Vladimir Putin is visiting friends nearby in Syria.

This will be very interesting to see how this plays out as the United States and other allied nations will easily be able to determine if it was indeed shot down seeing all the intelligence being poured over Iran right now.
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fish4life
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by fish4life » Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:10 am

They never said it was a technical issue with the aircraft...
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Dash.Trash
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Dash.Trash » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:37 am

fish4life wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:10 am
They never said it was a technical issue with the aircraft...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/07/wor ... raine.html

“ The crash took place as Iran was likely bracing for retaliation to its missile attacks hours earlier against U.S. military bases in Iraq. But the Ukrainian Embassy in Tehran said the passenger plane was not shot down.

“According to preliminary information, the airplane crashed as a result of engine failure due to technical reasons,” the embassy said in a statement. “The possibility of a terrorist attack or a rocket attack can currently be ruled out.”

Qassem Biniaz, an official at the Iranian Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, told the Islamic Republic News Agency, the government’s official news agency, that an engine caught fire and the pilot was unable to regain control. Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 left Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran at 6:12 a.m. on Wednesday and lost contact at 6:14 a.m., according to a flight tracker.”
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plausiblyannonymous
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by plausiblyannonymous » Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:04 am

I am going to be the asshole who assumes the worst, but I believe that there is a good chance it was shot down.

I am far from an expert on crash investigation, but take a look at some of the images so far.

Image

Image

Image

And one of the horizontal stabilizer with a bunch of punctures in it.

Image
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ant_321
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by ant_321 » Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:07 am

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FOD
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by FOD » Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:33 am

That’s a shocking amount of Canadians in one such place. Condolences. Jordanian news and other reliable sources reporting anti aircraft activity to blame. Sad situation indeed.
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righthandman
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by righthandman » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:00 am

plausiblyannonymous wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 3:04 am
I am going to be the asshole who assumes the worst, but I believe that there is a good chance it was shot down.

I am far from an expert on crash investigation, but take a look at some of the images so far.

And one of the horizontal stabilizer with a bunch of punctures in it.

Image
Add to the above markings...

Apparently a straight out departure based on radar tracking, so little deliberate manoeuvring and/or no erratic flight path following whatever it is that happened

Abruptly drops off radar after climbing to no higher than 4000’ agl

Wide debris field with no crater on videos

Iranians don’t want to release data or voice recorders even to a third party=suspicious

When is the last time any mechanical failure causes a plane to disintegrate?

All this seems to add up to something that shot it or blew it out of the sky.
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mbav8r
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by mbav8r » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:15 am

FOD wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:33 am
That’s a shocking amount of Canadians in one such place. Condolences. Jordanian news and other reliable sources reporting anti aircraft activity to blame. Sad situation indeed.
Obviously don’t know the average a Canadian passenger count but could be Canadians attempting to leave the area based on advice from our Government.
Hopefully a third party will be allowed to verify any claims made on the “black box” data
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ReserveTank
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by ReserveTank » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:32 am

Passenger list released by the airline:
Add 11 crew to it.

https://www.flyuia.com/uk/en/news/2020/ ... enger-list
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EastCoastWings
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by EastCoastWings » Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:08 am

FOD wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:33 am
That’s a shocking amount of Canadians in one such place. Condolences. Jordanian news and other reliable sources reporting anti aircraft activity to blame. Sad situation indeed.
Not really when you consider that the largest population of Ukrainians outside of Ukraine is here in Canada, and Orthodox Christmas just happened on Monday. Likely first or second generation Canadian citizens with Ukrainian family traveling to/from Ukraine / Canada over the holidays.
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Victory
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Victory » Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:14 am

Via Tehran? There's 100000 Iranians in the GTA alone.
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EastCoastWings
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by EastCoastWings » Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:23 am

Victory wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:14 am
Via Tehran? There's 100000 Iranians in the GTA alone.
According to the 2016 Census, there are 210,405 Canadians with Iranian ethnic origins in Canada and 1,359,655 with Ukrainian
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shabadoo
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by shabadoo » Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:54 am

EastCoastWings wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:08 am
FOD wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:33 am
That’s a shocking amount of Canadians in one such place. Condolences. Jordanian news and other reliable sources reporting anti aircraft activity to blame. Sad situation indeed.
Not really when you consider that the largest population of Ukrainians outside of Ukraine is here in Canada, and Orthodox Christmas just happened on Monday. Likely first or second generation Canadian citizens with Ukrainian family traveling to/from Ukraine / Canada over the holidays.
UIA advertises it as a connecting flight... Toronto-Kyiv-Tehran.
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EastCoastWings
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by EastCoastWings » Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:08 am

shabadoo wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:54 am
EastCoastWings wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:08 am
FOD wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:33 am
That’s a shocking amount of Canadians in one such place. Condolences. Jordanian news and other reliable sources reporting anti aircraft activity to blame. Sad situation indeed.
Not really when you consider that the largest population of Ukrainians outside of Ukraine is here in Canada, and Orthodox Christmas just happened on Monday. Likely first or second generation Canadian citizens with Ukrainian family traveling to/from Ukraine / Canada over the holidays.
UIA advertises it as a connecting flight... Toronto-Kyiv-Tehran.
Yes, looking at the details of some of the Canadian Passengers who have been identified, it appears my initial thought was incorrect.
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iflyforpie
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by iflyforpie » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:02 pm

A bomb on board also fits the general pattern.

Anyone know which bus the ADS-B or transponder data runs off of? I would imagine it would be the essential bus... making any loss due to an electrical failure extremely unlikely.
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7ECA
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by 7ECA » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:16 pm

There's a video from an Iranian on the ground filming an aeroplane on fire, prior to impact and a massive explosion.

The 737 was on fire prior to impact, and appeared to be in one piece prior to impact - and based off of the large area of debris, one can surmise that it impacted the ground at a relatively shallow angle.
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RedAndWhiteBaron
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by RedAndWhiteBaron » Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:19 pm

My bet?

It was a near impact surface to air missile fired by a trigger happy Iranian lieutenant. You don't need Boom to destroy a plane, you just need shrapnel.

That tail damage did not come from engines breaking apart - it came from the side. Those photos suggest a below plane and behind engine detonation. I realize I'm just an armchair quarterback here, but mark my words - that plane was shot down. I will eat my words if I'm wrong.

Unless of course, an engine fell off, and promptly exploded mere hundredths of a second later. Realistically, a missile strike is more likely, assuming I am correct in interpreting that tail damage as coming from the side.

It was an attack.

(IANAL, I am not a credible source, yadda yadda...)
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Last edited by RedAndWhiteBaron on Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:35 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Old fella
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Old fella » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 am

“Early morning after you just bombed US bases? You know some trigger-happy guys were pulling all nighters with their fingers on the buttons. So not only was the capacity for a shoot down there, it was on the edge...... “

There has been precedence established for sure. Note Russia vs Korean Air B747 and USA vs Iran Air A300, both acknowledgements as terrible accidents not state sponsored willful acts. Yes there was indeed finger pointing and face saving as expected.However in this case I am confused as to what Iran hoped to gain in deliberate destruction of a commercial airliner especially towards a country(Ukraine) they permitted to operate within its domestic airspace.
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Bede
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Bede » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:35 am

Old fella wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 am
However in this case I am confused as to what Iran hoped to gain in deliberate destruction of a commercial airliner especially towards a country(Ukraine) they permitted to operate within its domestic airspace.
Maybe it was the Russians who want to sucker the US into another middle east war? Just pure speculation.
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Old fella » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:52 am

Bede wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:35 am
Old fella wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:18 am
However in this case I am confused as to what Iran hoped to gain in deliberate destruction of a commercial airliner especially towards a country(Ukraine) they permitted to operate within its domestic airspace.
Maybe it was the Russians who want to sucker the US into another middle east war? Just pure speculation.
Yes, the rawest kind of pure speculation. I kinda doubt the atheist, non-believe , godless Russians have Carte Blanche authority inside the walls of Iran.
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Ki-ll
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Ki-ll » Thu Jan 09, 2020 6:57 am

Does anyone even read anything reliable?
http://avherald.com/h?article=4d1aea51&opt=0

Ukrainians are already on the ground. Looks like Iranian AIB has invited interested parties to participate.
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BigQ
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by BigQ » Thu Jan 09, 2020 7:16 am

^ ^ ^ ^
Iran has invoked articles to request assistance from other countries. Which means they genuinely believe it won't look bad for their regime...

My guess is uncontained engine failure with LOC-I characteristics. I have yet to see any evidence of missile or AAA action, because, if you look at the map on avherald, the debris field is small, the transponder appears to have been transmitting correct info, the aircraft was on a normal SID, and afaik nobody has come forward reporting AAA gunfire or a missile explosion.

People on the ground in the Donbass heard the missile hit MH17 at FL280 in daylight, I would be certain that a missile hit at 4,000ft over Tehran at 6am would've been heard by someone.
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Aux1
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Aux1 » Thu Jan 09, 2020 8:28 am

What sure looks like the front fin section of a 9M330 missile (from a TOR launcher), was reportedly found near crash site. Another coincidence?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-w ... le-debris/

https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrainian ... Om44cnUWk4
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Re: Ukraine International PS752

Post by Old fella » Thu Jan 09, 2020 9:50 am

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