172 down Hope BC ???

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Its What I do
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172 down Hope BC ???

Post by Its What I do »

Heard something , but not sure if really happened ? did it??
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rookiepilot
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by rookiepilot »

That is a nasty weather area. Clouds rapidly build up...it's a choke point.

I'm a no timer who lives in Onterrible, and I know this, BTW. If you live in BC...

(I know nothing, just an observation on the area)

Now I'm reading the post below...with weather at CYPK! 1500 and the pilot continued!

Brutal decision making. Brutal.

Be so thankful you are alive.
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Its What I do
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by Its What I do »

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boeingboy
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by boeingboy »

I'm glad she walked away. Don't know if she just hit the trees without knowing or put it down on purpose....but the aircraft survived rather well. However - this is piss poor pilot decision making yet again. I wonder if she even checked the wx before leaving. There was plenty of warning signs before she even got anywhere near Hope, and then to press on .. running the highway in bad weather and tight canyons is just asking for an accident. Looks like it happened near the interchange of highways 3 and 5. Sad to see a classic aircraft written off like this. On a side note - some comments in a pic online from 2013 said the aircraft was written off before due to storm damage.

https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/242519
A privately operated Cessna 172, was on a cross country VFR flight from Qualicum Beach (CAT4), BC; Sechelt (CAP3), BC; Pitt Meadows (CYPK), BC; Princeton (YDC), BC; Oliver (CAU3), BC; with an ultimate destination of Castlegar (CYCG), BC. Shortly after departure from CAT4 the pilot elected not to fly into Sechelt due to poor visibilities and low ceilings, and continued on to Pitt Meadows where the ceilings were about 1 500 feet AGL, and from there toward Hope, BC where the ceilings lowered to about 1 000 feet AGL. When 6.5 NM SE of Hope, BC the aircraft collided with trees. JRCC received a signal from the aircraft’s 406 MHz ELT and the pilot also triggered an SOS signal on the SPOT network and RCMP were dispatched to the accident site.
The pilot received minor injuries and walked from the accident site to Highway 3 where the RCMP found her. The aircraft sustained substantial damage; there was no post-impact fire.
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challenger_nami
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by challenger_nami »

Looking at the publicly available weather info, to me it seems like the flight was doomed to end up the way it did from the beginning.

I am not trying to be mean or funny here but:
If the pilot of this airplane reads this post, I am glad you walked away from this.
Maybe the heavens wanted you to survive this so you could share your experience and educate the rest of GA community.

please share what made you decide to continue on past Pitt Meadows CYPK, with this flight?
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patter
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by patter »

Who are you couch pilots?
You weren’t there. I’ve been thru there lots of times when pk is 800 feet and the Hope Princeton is well above 5500 ASL.
Maybe you are just girl bashing.
Most of the time you would say wait for TSB report to be written.
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rookiepilot
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by rookiepilot »

patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:40 pm
Maybe you are just girl bashing.
Most of the time you would say wait for TSB report to be written.
No, I'm 1000 foot ceiling in Hope bashing. Tells me enough. Wonder what the Fwd vis was through there.
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patter
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by patter »

It’s an AUTO at Hope, weather is often just fine in the area.
Besides who says it was 1000 feet? The post On this thread, that says it cannot guarantee the accuracy of information?
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Last edited by patter on Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by patter »

This is also an allegation.
And it states so at the bottom of the page.


https://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/ ... d2020P1527
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karmutzen
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by karmutzen »

We’re training our pilots all wrong, judging from the comments on here. Look, a weather report or forecast is only a statistical predictor of whether you will make your destination. 1000’ reported at Hope, check the cameras, I’d probably have saved the gas rather than get all the way there and turn around. But you got to know when to turn around, and you won’t get that from a weather briefing hours before. Weather changes, forecasts can be wrong. You fly the weather in front of you, you learn to turn around while you can. You pass a perfectly good airport at Chilliwack, then Hope then 4 minutes later hit trees in a narrow valley with a climbing floor? I put this one at the feet of the puppy-mill instructor quality and schools.
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Last edited by karmutzen on Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
challenger_nami
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by challenger_nami »

patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:40 pm Who are you couch pilots?
You weren’t there. I’ve been thru there lots of times when pk is 800 feet and the Hope Princeton is well above 5500 ASL.
Maybe you are just girl bashing.
Most of the time you would say wait for TSB report to be written.
Yeah, sure. You calling me a coach pilot does not make me care much. Just because I don’t care much about what you think.

I was not there, and I would never go there when the weather is like that. I have had many landings in Hope and I know better.

patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:47 pm It’s an AUTO at Hope, weather is often just fine in the area.
Besides who says it was 1000 feet? The post On this thread, that says it cannot guarantee the accuracy of information?
weather is often fine in the area??? Is that how you check your weather and Flight Plan???
Uuummm...Weather is often good in the area, so I am going to fly there today.


Hope CYHE has an AWOS which Like any other AWOS can be inaccurate because its sensor only reports the weather just above where the sensor is located.
One day I was flight planning to go there and CYHE AWOS was reporting Clear Skies. I looked at the airport camera and there were these cumulus clouds over the circuit at 1000-1500’, judging by the mountain heights.

You should never trust when the AWOS gives you a good news, like clear skies. But if that AWOS gives you bad news, like clouds at 1500’, you should pay attention. Don’t just hope for magically better weather than what is reported by that AWOS.

patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:40 pm I’ve been thru there lots of times when pk is 800 feet and the Hope Princeton is well above 5500 ASL.
Maybe you are just girl bashing.
Most of the time you would say wait for TSB report to be written.
5500’ ASL ceiling between Hope and Princeton is not a lot. Allison Pass is 4400’ ASL and that means with a 5500’ ASL ceiling you are clearing the ground at around 1100’ which is a very low altitude for mountain flying. Also Princeton area is relatively dry, Most of the clouds pile up around Hope area. Historically, Most of the weather related accidents happen near Hope.

True that there are days that CYPK is reporting 800’ and it’s clear everywhere else. That is because CYPK gets localized weather from the lakes and valleys around it.

However, when a weather system is forecasted to pass, that’s a different story. Weather mostly moves from west to east. When YVR, YPK and YXX show a downward trend in weather, you can expect the weather to go down in the Canyons around hope (CYHE).

To me, this looks like a case of flying without proper Flight Planning and a subsequent VFR into IMC. I am glad that this pilot survived this event.


patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 6:40 pm Maybe you are just girl bashing.
And no, I am not girl bashing. As a matter of fact I don’t know the pilots gender, and I don’t know how you came to know it was a female pilot. Why are you saying it was a female pilot?
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patter
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by patter »

I’m very glad the machinery was the only thing broken.

An aviation influencer I know, talked the talk of aviation safety in one breath and in real life he did crap like land after dark, unknown winter airport, low on fuel, well below VFR while delivering a plane. Instead of landing safely earlier.
Or
Accepting a take off from tower from a runway, and really taking off or landing from the grass. Because he knew tower couldn’t see it from their angle of view.

He did lots of other bad stuff. And is proud of it.

Until the TSB issues more than a CADOR, bashing another pilot is very nasty.
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Big Pistons Forever
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

The older I get the bigger the yellow stripe down my back gets. Back when I was young and dumb I pushed weather in the Hope Princeton area more than a few times. One flight in particular had a satisfactory conclusion that was more a result of luck than skill.

I would wager that more airplanes have been crashed in this small area than any other equivalently sized area in Canada. This is not an area to go have a look at without a solid plan. I told my students when approaching the Valley you must be able to maintain 5500 or 6500 ft ( dependent on direction of flight) and at least 500 ft below the cloud deck and see at least 10 miles ahead with no precipitation in the area. The instance you can't hold that you turn around.
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iflyforpie
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by iflyforpie »

patter wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:47 pm It’s an AUTO at Hope, weather is often just fine in the area.
Besides who says it was 1000 feet? The post On this thread, that says it cannot guarantee the accuracy of information?
The weather wasn’t fine unless she crashed because she couldn’t fly a plane in perfectly good weather.

The auto station at Hope or weather at any other airport is absolutely irrelevant. If you don’t have the ceiling or visibility to continue where you are currently flying, you turn around. And you always keep that back door open.

Sure.. we can’t say 100% if it was weather. But $5 this is going to be TSB Class 5 investigation where the result was CFIT from continued VFR flight into IMC conditions—just like any of dozens of similar crashes in the region.
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Geez did I say that....? Or just think it....?
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BTD
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by BTD »

An aviation influencer I know,
What in the F#$& is an aviation influencer? Is that like a social media influencer?

I didn’t think I was that old yet, but maybe I am. :cry:
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challenger_nami
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by challenger_nami »

BTD wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:52 pm
An aviation influencer I know,
What in the F#$& is an aviation influencer? Is that like a social media influencer?

I didn’t think I was that old yet, but maybe I am. :cry:

Haha,
It’s like ... Kim Kardashian of Aviation :lol:
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by BTD »

challenger_nami wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:01 pm
BTD wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:52 pm
An aviation influencer I know,
What in the F#$& is an aviation influencer? Is that like a social media influencer?

I didn’t think I was that old yet, but maybe I am. :cry:

Haha,
It’s like ... Kim Kardashian of Aviation :lol:
My ass didn’t break the internet, but I’ve busted a seat or 2.
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PilotDAR
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by PilotDAR »

An aviation influencer I know, talked the talk.....
Pilots who talk the talk don't influence aviation anywhere near as much a they think they do! :lol:
Who are you couch pilots?
Not me, I can't even influence my couch! It just sits there....

I've only flown through Hope three times. Once was somewhat low and rainy, but I was flying a helicopter, following another, flown by a very experienced local pilot, so I followed his lead. I can see that passes like Hope demand extra caution. As Big Pistons suggests, the older I get the more cautious I become!
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challenger_nami
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by challenger_nami »

karmutzen wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:47 pm I put this one at the feet of the puppy-mill instructor quality and schools.

This was a private plane, not a flight school airplane. And we don’t know how what level of skills and flying hours this pilot had. And we do not know who and how many years ago taught this person how to fly.

I am not an instructor, But I think it might be unfair to pin this on an instructor unless you have specific knowledge on who trained this pilot.


karmutzen wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:47 pm But you got to know when to turn around, and you won’t get that from a weather briefing hours before. Weather changes, forecasts can be wrong. You fly the weather in front of you, you learn to turn around while you can.
I totally agree with you... you should now when to turn around. Flying is like playing poker, with your life at stake . You got to know when to fold.

It’s true that weather forecasts can be inaccurate on occasion. But they are mostly ok within a reasonable degree of accuracy, and on the conservative side.

Us pilots may decide to dismiss the aviation weather forecasts as inaccurate and not use them in our decision to fly and only fly by what we see in front of us. However, one day somewhere around Hope as we are boxed in a canyon flying in VFR conditions, a FAST MOVING cold front can ambush us. You can’t go forward and you can’t turn around and go back. You are surrounded by it.

That’s when accidents like this happen and the only way to prevent would be to pay attention to that GFA, TAF and weather briefing.... and when those fail FOLD IT:turn around and land.

I am glad this pilot survived this. It could end up much worse.
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J31
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Re: 172 down Hope BC ???

Post by J31 »

The weather reported at Hope and Princeton at the time of the crash:

https://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en

METAR/SPECI from CYHE, Hope A, Bc (Canada).

SA 05/09/2020 20:00->
METAR CYHE 052000Z AUTO 30011G18KT 180V350 9SM CLR 21/15 A3021
METAR CYHE 051900Z AUTO 30007KT 250V360 9SM CLR 19/14 A3020
SPECI CYHE 051802Z AUTO 30008G16KT 260V330 9SM SCT023 BKN028 BKN034 OVC046 19/14 A3021
METAR CYHE 051800Z AUTO 30010G17KT 260V330 9SM BKN023 BKN028 BKN034 OVC046 19/14 A3021
METAR CYHE 051700Z AUTO 29010G18KT 260V330 9SM OVC021 17/14 A3019
METAR CYHE 051600Z AUTO 29007G15KT 260V320 9SM OVC019 17/14 A3016
SPECI CYHE 051511Z AUTO 27009G16KT 250V310 9SM BKN019 17/14 A3014
METAR CYHE 051500Z AUTO 27009KT 9SM FEW019 17/14 A3014
METAR CYHE 051400Z AUTO 24007KT 220V280 9SM CLR 16/14 A3012
METAR CYHE 051300Z AUTO 24006KT 9SM FEW016 16/14 A3010
METAR CYHE 051200Z AUTO 22008KT 9SM CLR 17/15 A3008
METAR CYHE 051100Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR 14/14 A3006
METAR CYHE 051000Z AUTO 00000KT 9SM CLR 16/14 A3004


METAR/SPECI from CYDC, Princeton Airport (Canada).

SA 05/09/2020 20:00->
METAR CYDC 052000Z VRB06KT 25SM SKC 29/07 A3012 RMK FU ALF
METAR CYDC 051900Z 13004KT 060V180 25SM SKC 27/09 A3013
METAR CYDC 051800Z 00000KT 25SM SKC 23/08 A3014
METAR CYDC 051700Z VRB02KT 25SM SKC 20/06 A3014
METAR CYDC 051600Z 00000KT 25SM SKC 15/06 A3014
METAR CYDC 051500Z VRB02KT 25SM FEW150 FEW260 13/05 A3014
METAR CYDC 051400Z 00000KT 25SM FEW150 FEW260 08/04 A3014
METAR CYDC 051300Z 00000KT 25SM FEW150 FEW250 09/04 A3011
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