Crash @ North Spirit Lake Ont (4 dead, 1 survivor)

[Gorgons]

Doc summed it up nicely, we were happy to get the gear down. Its slowed us a little more via the “drag” you referred to, but we weren’t willing to risk adding flap to the equation as we had no idea how the aircraft was going to react, rather we had an idea and didn’t like the possibilities.

[Doc]

We know there was icing in the area. C208 reported MDT-SVR icing in freezing drizzle 20 east of CYVZ around 1520Z and another aircraft (a member of this forum in fact) reported freezing drizzle in the area as well. Given that this pilot did not intend to land on the lake, I'm guessing there had to be other factors involved and not being able to see clearly or at all might be one of them?

I'm not a pilot so I'm asking questions that may seem dumb but if I can get a handle on some issues it will help me in my job.

So can you post the missing weather? I find it hard to believe some agency doesn't have the 12Z archived somewhere...

Cheers,
Kirsten B.

I think the pi-rep from the Caravan should pretty much tell the story. 20 east of YVZ about 40 minutes from the reported accident time. That's about as close to gospel you'll get. Still wondering what was "forecast"? There would be no actual. We all know just how "bang on" an area forecast is. And, since North Spirit has no wx, an area forecast is as good as you'll get. That, and if it was VFR, we wouldn't even be here.

[snoopy]

I know I promised not to ask anymore questions but...when you say you landed "flapless and fast"...were the flaps left stowed so as to not induce more drag and risk a loss of control?

In that case I'm guessing he/she would have landed "flapless and fast" due to ice on the wing increasing the stall speed. Any deployment of flap (changing the shape of the wing) in that condition could be disastrous - particularly in the situation described.

As to the accident scenario, looking at the snow conditions in the TSB photos and considering the small wheels and rather delicate landing gear in the Navajo, I'd have chose gear up, slowest possible speed and flaps full for an emergency landing. Being a float and ski pilot I'd have also aimed for an into-wind or quartering cross-wind landing in the most protected area I could find (ie close to shore, but not aiming right at it). Local knowledge helps in knowing the direction of the prevailing wind that created the drifts in the first place. The trouble is that a controlled landing on skis on some of those large lakes in NW Ontario can be hazardous after a big blow and cold temps. The drifts can be huge, and hard. Couple that with whiteout conditions and/or iced up windshield in a wheeled aircraft making an emergency landing... not the best scenario.

Cheers,
Kirsten B.

[Lloyd YWG FIC]

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[BEFAN5]

So can you post the missing weather? I find it hard to believe some agency doesn't have the 12Z archived somewhere...

Cheers,
Kirsten B.

I printed everything we had as soon as I heard about an airplane being down (406 ELT report from RCC). 12z GFAs, 10 hours of METARs for CYRL CYIV CYTL CZSJ CYPL AND CYWG, past three and current TAFs for same stations, PIREPs, and 12Z surface analysis. I knew TSB would be calling. Everything was faxed over to them and originals secured in the log. (I'm not sure if we kept the 18Z GFAs as they would have been after the fact, I know I did not print those). I don't have the ability to post them on here but the products were saved. For sure TSB will be examining them in detail and likely asking Environment Canada forecasters for an 'aftercast' synopsis.

I didn't brief many in that area that morning but of the ones I did brief I can't recall any of them actually deciding to make a flight into there, it just did not look like a good day to be in there. Having said that, everything we as FSS do on the ground is in theory. We do not have the experience of encountering bad weather like you pilots do so we don't actually know what it is like to see and feel MDT-SVR icing. We know it's bad but we've never experienced it.

From what I can recall of the morning GFA it was similar to the 18z one but the Low was a little farther back into MB. It was basically a frontal zone with a series of Lows rippling along it from NW to SE. Now I know you guys look at these products as much as we do but it might also be a good idea to take a gander at the latest surface analysis as well, sometimes the GFA is a little off on their features and the SFC can help to explain it a bit better.

Llyod, you do a good job. We have spoken on the phone many times!

Flight aware has the flight filed YWG-CKQ3. If you view the track log, they were identified as ground 180knots for most of the flight. The timing is not making sense to me.

The 1800z GFA is posted on this site... http://netnewsledger.com/2012/01/11/inv ... -underway/

[Richard Cranium]

We know there was icing in the area. C208 reported MDT-SVR icing in freezing drizzle 20 east of CYVZ around 1520Z and another aircraft (a member of this forum in fact) reported freezing drizzle in the area as well. Given that this pilot did not intend to land on the lake, I'm guessing there had to be other factors involved and not being able to see clearly or at all might be one of them?

I'm not a pilot so I'm asking questions that may seem dumb but if I can get a handle on some issues it will help me in my job.

So can you post the missing weather? I find it hard to believe some agency doesn't have the 12Z archived somewhere...

Cheers,
Kirsten B.

what would u like to know about it?

[Doc]

Flight aware has the flight filed YWG-CKQ3. If you view the track log, they were identified as ground 180knots for most of the flight. The timing is not making sense to me.

The 1800z GFA is posted on this site... http://netnewsledger.com/2012/01/11/inv ... -underway/

Was the time of the accident come from witnesses, of a more reliable source? I've heard "about 10:00 am", but what is the source? Witnesses can b notoriously inaccurate. If you have the flight track on flight aware, so much for the "cloud break" in ZSJ theory.

[Lloyd YWG FIC]

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[Lloyd YWG FIC]

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[cncpc]

The flaps were partially down, the gear was down.

The aircraft moved the length of a football field and a bit more after impact. That would indicate a shallow impact angle that probably pushed the nose gear back into the tunnel and probably busted the main gear backwards when it contacted the snow and it skidded along on its belly then, likely spilling the contents of the nose baggage compartment. The aircraft seems to be fairly intact. The wings and tail feathers all appear to be more or less normal, the engines are attached and it seems even the cowlings are in more or less normal position. It appears that there is little damage to the left propellor, with one blade looking undamaged. The gear doesn't appear to have punctured the auxs. It appears that most of the damage is fire related.

It is known that some and possibly all of those on board survived the impact. The survivor has a fractured cheekbone and a broken ankle. He likely pitched forward into a seat back when the nose hit and pitched up from the initial contact. Odds are he was seated at the back near the door, which is open in the pictures. Whether he opened it and got out, or someone else did, possibly the snow plow driver, is not known.

What is the source of the fire? The Janitrol is surely burning at impact. The upward deformation of the nose could well have busted off the feed line and things went bad from there. There may have been dual heaters. There seems to be a hot spot in the baggage area. Other fuel lines may have broken.

There is no report of ice on the airframe as it was sitting. It may have melted if it was there.

All of this supports a scenario of a controlled descent down to the lake surface during some sort of procedure where the ground couldn't be seen. If it could, there is an island directly ahead that would have given plenty of warning of where the lake surface was.

[Doc]

The flaps were partially down, the gear was down.

The aircraft moved the length of a football field and a bit more after impact. That would indicate a shallow impact angle that probably pushed the nose gear back into the tunnel and probably busted the main gear backwards when it contacted the snow and it skidded along on its belly then, likely spilling the contents of the nose baggage compartment. The aircraft seems to be fairly intact. The wings and tail feathers all appear to be more or less normal, the engines are attached and it seems even the cowlings are in more or less normal position. It appears that there is little damage to the left propellor, with one blade looking undamaged. The gear doesn't appear to have punctured the auxs. It appears that most of the damage is fire related.

It is known that some and possibly all of those on board survived the impact. The survivor has a fractured cheekbone and a broken ankle. He likely pitched forward into a seat back when the nose hit and pitched up from the initial contact. Odds are he was seated at the back near the door, which is open in the pictures. Whether he opened it and got out, or someone else did, possibly the snow plow driver, is not known.

What is the source of the fire? The Janitrol is surely burning at impact. The upward deformation of the nose could well have busted off the feed line and things went bad from there. There may have been dual heaters. There seems to be a hot spot in the baggage area. Other fuel lines may have broken.

There is no report of ice on the airframe as it was sitting. It may have melted if it was there.

All of this supports a scenario of a controlled descent down to the lake surface during some sort of procedure where the ground couldn't be seen. If it could, there is an island directly ahead that would have given plenty of warning of where the lake surface was.

Sounds like he was ready to land, just waiting till he saw the runway before he went full flap. Pretty much a white out, I'm thinking. He just descended too low on final, before having the runway in sight?
If I was a TSB guy (which I ain't) I'd be thinking OBS approach, followed by a descent on final that went below a safe altitude. Cause of that, unknown....altimeter setting? It could be that simple. Shouldn't have been there, of course.....

['CauseTheCaravanCan]

is there an echo in here?

[Richard Cranium]

Sounds like he was ready to land, just waiting till he saw the runway before he went full flap. Pretty much a white out, I'm thinking. He just descended too low on final, before having the runway in sight?

Maybe you should keep those thoughts to yourself, this makes me sick to read.
There could have been a 1000 different combinations of things going wrong, we don't need you guys sewering some poor deceased guy, who for all we know might have been having an emergency at the time.
Besides, he would have been off profile by a long ways if what you said was true, and judging from the way he was navigating, I find your theory highly unlikely. I just don't see someone knowingly, with 150hrs charter experience, drive that airplane below 500ft AGL all while having a wife and child at home unless he absolutely felt he had to, or he didn't know he was that close to the ground. Maybe he had a deicing/instrument/engine failure, or was simply too covered in ice by that point to attempt a go around, or go somewhere else. Sh1t happens to the best of us, and sometimes you just have to nut up and deal, this dude thought whatever he was doing was the safest option he had at the time. You have no right to attack his character.

The thickness of your logbook and your post count, are not indicators of your skill level, or decision making prowess. I once flew with a person who had over 15,000hrs, was still relatively young, but in my humble opinion had no business leaving their house without a helmet on, let alone operating an airplane with peoples lives on board. Plenty of people in this industry get away with boneheaded decisions, mistakes, and ham fisted skill level b/c they fly two crew on airplanes that are powerful and forgiving enough to cover up their mistakes a few even make it to Air Canada and Westjet. There's even people I've flown with where its like dealing with a 5 year old in the cockpit, sure they can pass a ride on any given day, but I would never send them out in a Navajo or 206 on their own in the North.
Some people are just lucky to be alive in this industry, this man's luck obviously had run out. I've been lucky multiple times to this point. To criticize others in your manner, and force your opinion on others in not only disrespectful, but shows a hint of egomania, immaturity, and implies unprofessional behaviour. You seem to think you are immune to making a bad decision.
Sorry, you're not the only one in this thread I should be picking on either.
For the record, I follow the laws set out in the CARs, and operate according to SOP's to the best of my ability. I have never met this pilot, nor do I know anything about the company he worked for.

Kind Regards,
Captain Richard Cranium

[Doc]

Just a possible scenario there Richard Cranium. The "thickness of my log book" having nothing to do with it. Sorry you had a bad experience with a 15000 hour pilot. I've flown with 2000 hour pilots who can, and do, teach me new things every time I fly with them. It was a tragic accident, with lots of "arm chair/Monday morning quarterbacks" no doubt about it. For some unknown reason, after, what, 14 pages of comments on the accident, you've somehow decided that I'm the one that's full of shit? I'm waiting with great anticipation for your next utterance on the subject. Don't mean to be short with you, but the airplane could well have been lined up on final, and landed in a white out.
But then, you are "Richard Cranium"

[chesty]

Hey captain. How do you know that this pilot was doing "the safest" option he had at the time? were you there? mabe you should hold back on your own comments!

[Cat Driver]

Lets look a little closer here if we are going to try and understand why that Navajo ended up on the lake in what appears to be CFIT.

Why was he that low and landed short of the runway lined up for said runway?

There has been mention of him circling and waiting for the snow plow to clear the runway, if he was talking to the snow plow or someone on the ground and went from a normal approach to an emergency situation such as icing or having a mechanical problem did he tell the people on the ground he was on approach and landing on the runway snow plow or no snow plow?

[lilflyboy262]

Cncpc, theory sounds good all for one thing.
The prop on the left. Barely any damage... suggests no power on the left.

The miss-match in time is a big question mark for me. We have a person here confirming that the ELT went off around 10am. 0751 departure, makes 2hrs 10 of flying. He could have been delayed due to a snow plow (As was suggested earlier) or a few missed attempts at getting in.
He comes in, left tank goes dry, engine stops and he ends up short of the runway? That flight time suggests flight to get there plus 30 min reserve.

[Cat Driver]

How long have you been a captain cranium?

When you get over using captain to identify yourself you will be making the first step towards being a experienced pilot.

[lilflyboy262]

Richard is generally shortened to ..... ?
Cranium is what part of the body .... ?

I think he added the captain to add to the p*** take.

[Just another canuck]

I just don't see someone knowingly, with 150hrs charter experience, drive that airplane below 500ft AGL

This is the part that I don't understand as well. The "home made" OBS approach is not legal, but can be quite effective and get you into where you want to go safely in most conditions. I'm not advocating this procedure, but simply stating a fact. I would also guess that a fairly large percentage of users on this forum have performed them from time to time or at least witnessed it being done.

The thing is when these illegal approaches are taking place, you're not supposed to go down to levels equivalent to the DH of an ILS. And I don't think anyone in their right mind would go below, say, 500 AGL, as stated by Captain Dick Head (very clever, BTW) . Especially in the weather conditions at the present time of this particular crash. So... why was he that low? Was it because he was trying to sneak in? Or did something else happen? Icing perhaps and he just couldn't maintain altitude? Who knows? What I do find hard to believe is that anyone, experienced or not, would be that low on purpose. Runway altitude how far back from the threshold???