Piper PA-28-140 C-GXGB Lake Ontario 24 February 1994

[Gogona]

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/rapports-repor ... 4o0056.pdf

It's almost 19 years passed since this strange accident took place. Lake Ontario is not as huge and deep as Atlantic Ocean, moreover, it happened very close to the shore. However, I couldn't find any news after this report was issued.
Does anybody know, was the wreckage has ever been found?

[fleet16b]

I remember that incident and thinking why was he flying on a day like that.
It has always been shrouded in mystery and there were many rumours.
The pilot was being investigated for I think past sexual abuse incidents and there were theories that this
was a staged event and that the pilot fled from Canada down the coast and into the US
Seems far fetched. He would have had to fly at 0 ft down the coast of Lake Onatrio and into the US in poor weather.Then he would have had to make the aircraft disappear once it was in the States.
Still after a very extensive search, the aircraft was never found which is in itself very strange. The area it went off radar has a very sandy bottom with no features so it should have been easy to find the wreckage

[Expat]

I tend to also think so. The pilot had 17,000 hours experience, mostly in pipeline patrol. 3000 ft is not such a bad ceiling either. My feeling is that it would have been easier to stage his disapearance on the Canadian coast, where he was flying, then cross the lake at low altitude.
Thanks Gogona for finding that old link.

[photofly]

Then he would have had to make the aircraft disappear once it was in the States.

That would be a trivial challenge, compared with building himself a new identity.

[fleet16b]

Then he would have had to make the aircraft disappear once it was in the States.

That would be a trivial challenge, compared with building himself a new identity.

I agree.
Making the a/c disappear would be easy with the right contacts and he had been in the game for years so would have the resources
Definitely would be hard to change identities but who knows.......
3 years ago we did a sonar survey of the same area he was last seen on radar and I know for a fact that there is no airplane anywhere in there . The lake bottom is all sand with no distiguishable features for square miles.
All adds to the mystery I guess

[Gogona]

there were theories that this was a staged event

Honestly, I think exactly the same. And that is the reason why I opened this topic – if the wreckage has been found, it's a real accident. If not, then it looks like escaping to US.
Too bad, I don't know who is the pilot and whether he had any serious motives to stage his death, cause it would give a clue to this story.

Ridiculously, we have the only ONE single reason to think, that this accident is real – the plane and pilot both are missing. And the only one thing which sounds like truth – if you suddenly lose your windshield in the wintertime, and your body, head and arms are unprotected, you don't lose your control right away and able to keep radio communications for a while. But in the next 5-10 minutes you gonna get freeze and become disoriented.

Meanwhile, there are bunch of suspicious and inexplicable factors:
1) No one person in the air or on the ground saw the plane going down, although it happened in the high populated area
2) No wreckage in the relatively shallow and clear place were found, and even no traces like debris or parts of the clothes or papers floating on water
3) The most intrigue thing – the pilot was highly experienced in low-flying, he logged thousands of hours as a pipeliner, so he knew his capabilities and potential hazards better, than anybody else
4) Weather conditions were good enough for keeping VFR at any altitude below few thousands feet
5) It's almost impossible to catch a goose during the month of February, and it's also hard to believe, that pilot can't see what is coming through his windshield if that's not a projectile, of course
6) If the pilot was instantly and completely blinded by the unknown object, he went down shortly, in the next minute or two. Otherwise, he still had a chance to see what he was hitting with (the rests or the bird blood) and tell that to the controller. But his transmission sounds very strange.
7) The loud background noise and audible change could be fake, as well as his erratic flying – it's very easy to imitate such things
8 ) It's also not a big deal to land the airplane in a wild area and then destroy it

So, it's interesting... very interesting

[Pratt X 3]

Sounds like this guy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Schrenker used this "accident" as a template.

[Diadem]

5) It's almost impossible to catch a goose during the month of February, and it's also hard to believe, that pilot can't see what is coming through his windshield if that's not a projectile, of course

First, I must say that I strongly disagree with this statement. I have encountered flocks of geese this month; not all fly to the US, as for many of them even southern Canada is south of their summer homes, and they stick around throughout the winter. Also, there's not a lot of time to see a bird in flight, and much less time to react and avoid it. If it were that simple, bird strikes wouldn't happen.
Second, while I find the hypothesis to be intriguing, there are lots of strong assertions being made in this thread without any evidence. It's one thing to say that it's strange that the plane hasn't been found, but it's another entirely to assume that the pilot faked his death, slipped across the border, and started a new life under an assumed identity because he was allegedly in trouble for some sexual harassment issues. Likewise, it would be equally ridiculous to assume that because Amelia Earhart has never been found that she was actually a spy for Japan and was picked up by a ship of the Imperial Japanese Navy with plans that proved instrumental in the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Without some actual evidence pointing one way or another all we can say is that the plane and pilot mysteriously disappeared, and the TSB formulated the best hypothesis they could with the facts at their disposal.

[fleet16b]

5) It's almost impossible to catch a goose during the month of February, and it's also hard to believe, that pilot can't see what is coming through his windshield if that's not a projectile, of course

First, I must say that I strongly disagree with this statement. I have encountered flocks of geese this month; not all fly to the US, as for many of them even southern Canada is south of their summer homes, and they stick around throughout the winter. Also, there's not a lot of time to see a bird in flight, and much less time to react and avoid it. If it were that simple, bird strikes wouldn't happen.
Second, while I find the hypothesis to be intriguing, there are lots of strong assertions being made in this thread without any evidence. It's one thing to say that it's strange that the plane hasn't been found, but it's another entirely to assume that the pilot faked his death, slipped across the border, and started a new life under an assumed identity because he was allegedly in trouble for some sexual harassment issues. Likewise, it would be equally ridiculous to assume that because Amelia Earhart has never been found that she was actually a spy for Japan and was picked up by a ship of the Imperial Japanese Navy with plans that proved instrumental in the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Without some actual evidence pointing one way or another all we can say is that the plane and pilot mysteriously disappeared, and the TSB formulated the best hypothesis they could with the facts at their disposal.

Totally agree
The geese do not really leave Southern Ontario anymore so he could have had a bird strike.
However the allegations were quite serious. It was much more than a sexual harassment issue and it I think involved a family member. If I remember he had been investigated and there was enough eveidence that it was going to court.
Then not soon after he disappears with absolutely no trace.
As for the Amelia Earhart comparison, she disaapeared over a huge area. Ruthven disaapeared over a not so large shallow bay in a heavily populated area.

[Gogona]

I have encountered flocks of geese this month; not all fly to the US, as for many of them even southern Canada is south of their summer homes, and they stick around throughout the winter.

OK, no problem! But that's even worse. Because if that was a bird, this version works not toward, but against the pilot (see below).

Also, there's not a lot of time to see a bird in flight, and much less time to react and avoid it

I never told, he had a chance to avoid it. I agree, that it may happen so suddenly, so pilot had no chance even to see what kind of bird was that. But even small bird penetrating through the windshield ALWAYS leaves a lot of mess around. Remains of the bird are everywhere, they go to the instrument panel, windows, seats, pilot's face and body - feather, fuzz, blood, flesh...
Even if one gets this strong cold air rushing through the broken windshield right into his face, he still has at least few seconds to look around and realize what just happened.

And here are only two possible scenarios:
1) Bird strikes pilot's head/face making him instantly blinded, so he is unable to see blood and feather.
In this case, his headset slips/falls down (you may check that experimentally, if you wish), so he couldn't continue communications or regain them shortly. If he uses cockpit mic, that makes controlling the aircraft even more difficult. Add here a panic due to the vision loss. However, the "blind" pilot was able to communicate for the next 6 minutes, and remain in the air for another 5 minutes! Is it possible to stay in the air at the low altitude for the whole 11(!) minutes being completely blinded and panicking? No way!
2) Bird or shreds don't blind the pilot, so his vision is restricted only with the blowing wind. That sounds very realistic, because then the pilot becomes disoriented and incapacitated gradually, and can talk and fly for some short period of time. But in this case he has a good chance to check the cockpit interior, doesn't he?

So the basic mystery here – why didn't he tell them, it actually or most likely was a bird? But instead:
The pilot was mostly unresponsive, repeating that something had come through the windshield, that he could barely see or could not see, and that he could not see the instruments. - He couldn't see the instruments, but doesn't go down right away?
And: Discussions with eye witnesses revealed that the aircraft was flying erratically as it flew out over Lake Ontario. No witnesses saw the aircraft strike the water surface(!)
And after all, how can I trust to highly experienced low-level pilot, who is perfectly prepared to the situation like that simply due to specific of his job (majority of bird strikes occurs bellow 1000 feet), who refers to the "unknown object"? Doesn't he know, how the consequences of the bird strike look like? Sorry, but I can't believe in that

it would be equally ridiculous to assume that because Amelia Earhart has never been found that she was actually a spy for Japan and was picked up by a ship of the Imperial Japanese Navy with plans that proved instrumental in the bombing of Pearl Harbor

This comparison is absolutely irrelevant.
First, Amelia had no valid reason to stage her death, and do that in such a risky manner. This guy did.
Second, her last location leaves absolutely NO chance to survive or reach the shore, whether it was intentional disappearing or not.
Third, her body or plane wreckage couldn't be discovered due to the very obvious reasons. And here is, what we have: A Transport Canada Beechcraft Kingair B90 was preparing for departure from Hamilton Airport at the time that the controller was giving the pilot his position and headings. The Kingair proceeded to the area where the Piper PA-28-140 was last observed on radar but was unsuccessful in locating the aircraft. Woopsie! Not talking about SAR operation initiated in the next 10-15 minutes after the plane disappeared...
So can they even been compared?

BTW, I don't state that the pilot has flown to US. Maybe he stayed somewhere in Canada, who knows? I only suppose, he was really needed to make people believe in his death, so he accomplished that using all his knowledge, skills and experience.

[KK7]

So the basic mystery here – why didn't he tell them, it actually or most likely was a bird? But instead:
The pilot was mostly unresponsive, repeating that something had come through the windshield, that he could barely see or could not see, and that he could not see the instruments. - He couldn't see the instruments, but doesn't go down right away?

Your assumption is that following a bird or foreign object strike that penetrates the windshield, that someone would still be in a proper frame of mind. However the events that occurred and the things that he said sound a lot like someone who is in shock. Shock is a very powerful thing, and I think most people here myself included can't begin to imagine what they would be thinking or doing in a severe case of shock. I've seen people wandering around a highway after an accident looking for their sunglasses, meanwhile their nose is hanging off their face. It's totally irrational behaviour, but this is what shock does.

I think if you got a bird in the face at 100 MPH along with shards of windshield, you'd most likely be in a state of shock. He might have tried to pilot the aircraft but being lost and disoriented and not entirely sure what's going on that didn't last too long.

[Gogona]

Shock is a very powerful thing, and I think most people here myself included can't begin to imagine what they would be thinking or doing in a severe case of shock.

Well, I understand that and actually believe in this version, cause it's the only reasonable explanation.

However, it's just way too unusual in comparison with all similar accidents. Some selected statistics can be found in this great study - http://www.easa.europa.eu/rulemaking/do ... 0Study.pdf (pages 12X)

[Heliian]

5) It's almost impossible to catch a goose during the month of February, and it's also hard to believe, that pilot can't see what is coming through his windshield if that's not a projectile, of course

First, I must say that I strongly disagree with this statement. I have encountered flocks of geese this month; not all fly to the US, as for many of them even southern Canada is south of their summer homes, and they stick around throughout the winter. Also, there's not a lot of time to see a bird in flight, and much less time to react and avoid it. If it were that simple, bird strikes wouldn't happen.
Second, while I find the hypothesis to be intriguing, there are lots of strong assertions being made in this thread without any evidence. It's one thing to say that it's strange that the plane hasn't been found, but it's another entirely to assume that the pilot faked his death, slipped across the border, and started a new life under an assumed identity because he was allegedly in trouble for some sexual harassment issues. Likewise, it would be equally ridiculous to assume that because Amelia Earhart has never been found that she was actually a spy for Japan and was picked up by a ship of the Imperial Japanese Navy with plans that proved instrumental in the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Without some actual evidence pointing one way or another all we can say is that the plane and pilot mysteriously disappeared, and the TSB formulated the best hypothesis they could with the facts at their disposal.

Everyone loves a mystery, it seems you are trying too hard to dispell the staged theory, in fact, you could be the missing man.

[Diadem]

Your assumption is that following a bird or foreign object strike that penetrates the windshield, that someone would still be in a proper frame of mind. However the events that occurred and the things that he said sound a lot like someone who is in shock. Shock is a very powerful thing, and I think most people here myself included can't begin to imagine what they would be thinking or doing in a severe case of shock. I've seen people wandering around a highway after an accident looking for their sunglasses, meanwhile their nose is hanging off their face. It's totally irrational behaviour, but this is what shock does.

I think if you got a bird in the face at 100 MPH along with shards of windshield, you'd most likely be in a state of shock. He might have tried to pilot the aircraft but being lost and disoriented and not entirely sure what's going on that didn't last too long.

+1. If he was struck in the head by the unknown object going 100 MPH, he would almost certainly have been concussed. I've had a few concussions, and even though you think you're making sense and walking (or, in this case, flying) straight, you're acting completely erratically and saying things which are completely bizarre.
As for why the airplane was never found, if it remained floating for even a few minutes it could have drifted quite a distance, and even further if it took a long time to sink. Currents in lakes can be quite significant; they're more like very large rivers than pools of calm water. I can't speak to the currents in Lake Ontario, but I grew up next to a very large lake that had currents significant enough to overcome powerboats.

[DougRonan]

I was flying a Cherokee 140 from Orillia to Niagara Falls New York about a week after that Cherokee disappeared - I was skirting around Lake Ontario around Burlington when I had to do a circle and loose some altitude to remain clear of cloud - Toronto Center came on the radio and said "Cherokee ABC are OK?" to which I replied I was fine just remaining clear of cloud - Toronto came back and said "thats good we've had issues with Cherokees spiraling down over the lake this week!!"

[pdw]

Heading south across the Burlington Skyway yesterday I noticed the height of the hydro lines whose towers are higher than the pillars of the drawbridge and lots of seagulls hanging around. Probably lots of them back then too, and other species, ... lots of places available for nesting under that bridge. Very warm weather a few days earlier (1994 weather history) likely also encouraged more wildlife to be out flying around ... and then also nearer to a flightpath at that lower "SVFR" altitude.

The report shows two left holding turns are recorded to the left of that Skyway (in the perspective of the Southerly heading) prior to the accident aircraft's crossing it into the harbour/bay area (also not far from Cootes paradise bird sanctuary) prior to the pilot's radio transmission of his broken windshield. The reason for the hold was due to the pilot's request for SVFR (report), a hold which was not planned (Wx history shows up to 16km Vis earlier/ intermittent) since not expecting to be asked to wait for an IFR flight ahead of him prior to clearance.

Your "circle" was probably looking very similar ...

[pdw]

Toronto came back and said "thats good we've had issues with Cherokees spiraling down over the lake this week!!"

That actually kind-of says the cherokee was descending as it circled / holding there before crossing over to the west side of the bridge about the time (the pireped report of) the collision with the 'object' took place, also when the controllers stated the transmissions got noisy from the broken windshield.

Sounds like it descended gradually lower into where the heavier/heaviest bird action actually was, and while constantly turning it's harder to spot any bird traffic. A good number would have been flying around looking for food, since it was just after midday. High winds also made it different than normal; for example if some of the larger fowl is hovering higher up while pointed into wind (stationary) or a collision course can be a bit deceptive if the specimen happens to be soaring right at the windshield at highest speed from the side (from out of view) while the cherokee was crabbing in crosswind.

After the strike (the pilot's emergency call that 'something' broke the windshield ) to get the plane turned around and heading east/northeast-bound where a vague outline of the shoreline might have offered some situational awareness despite any blinding injury or the open prop blast effects, would have been an overwhelming challenge for even the toughest/most-experienced pilots to handle for as long as that radar track goes. The face would get numb fairly rapidly exposed to a constant blast of cold air, and nevermind the snowflakes that would have felt like ice pellets. Incidently, what does a missing windshield contribute to messing up the aerodynamics on a cherokee ?

But who knows how much longer the erratic track went on while under the radar ... past where the last radar-hit got registered (see the link above for the report/ radar-plot). Not having been found anywhere shallow means it went well beyond where it might have been expected to be. "Six minutes" was probably doing real well to keep the plane flying in that shape/ at that temp; and just a few more min could easily have multiplied the distance from shore (last radar hit) at that high groundspeed in that offshore WNW wind. As has been suggested previously by Diadem what a current can achieve ... in this case the current would have also been able to take it farther out into the deeper/open water for a time with higher waves, drifting at a more rapid rate in a southeast direction (toward the centre of the lake).

[Crc2020]

The plane has never been recovered, missing person. 2 submarines have searched with negative results. I flew that plane 2 days before it disappeared.
Hopefully they can send a drone to search again.

[Capt. Underpants]

Never finding the wreckage is completely plausible. A high school friend of mine was cruising in a pleasure boat in similar waters on Lake Ontario when a sudden wind came up and they were lost. Another boater saw them disappear below the surface on his way to attempt a rescue. Extensive sonar searches were paid for by her boyfriend’s wealthy family and they never turned up anything.