Malaysia Airlines 777 - Missing

[boeingboy]

I don't believe any of the Primary Radar info as it is does not add up.

Why? Because it doesn't fit your theory?
It was tracked crossing the country and navigating to 3 waypoints before they lost it as it flew out of range.

Again - the photographed debris could have been anything. Do you know how much crap is floating out there? TONS? and none of it is aircraft (Im talking about other than POSSIBLY this airplane).To put it mildly - the oil rig guy doesn't know what he saw - and yet you claim he saw not just a plane - but this very one when it was well over a 100 km away??? at night??? No way.

BTW - You still haven't told me how the debris - if it did break up where you say - could be 100's of km in opposite directions at the same time. The currents would have carried it all together (roughly).

[GyvAir]

B52: There is a poster on pprune who has a theory related to yours. He points out that the calculated distance from the Inmarsat satellite (40 degrees from horizontal?) of the last ping puts the arc directly through the area that the Cathay Pacific crew reported seeing a debris field. His theory is that the pinging was somehow coming from the wreckage, rather than from an intact aircraft.

Map showing fuel range and last ping arc: http://i.imgur.com/Iwa6Ali.jpg

I've seen it reported repeatedly the calculated distance from the satellite of the last ping. I haven't seen any report of calculated distances for any of the other pings though. Anybody?

[boeingboy]

The world owes an apology to the Governments of China and Vietnam for their incredible work to date and for the arrogance of the west to ignore their vital evidence.

Fine - here are the words quoted from your hero.

On Mar 15th 2014 Malaysia's Prime Minister stated in a press conference: "based on new satellite communication we can say with a high degree of certainty that the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) was disabled just before the aircraft reached the east coast of peninsular Malaysia. Shortly afterwards, near the border between Malaysian and Vietnamese air traffic control, the aircraft’s transponder was switched off." Movements of the aircraft until the aircraft left Malaysia's primary radar coverage were consistent with deliberate action by someone on the aircraft. The primary radar target, so far believed but not confirmed to be MH-370, could today be identified as MH-370 with the help of new data received from the satellite data provider. The aircraft could have flown on for 7 hours, the last trace of the aircraft was identified at 08:11L (00:11Z Mar 8th). "Due to the type of satellite data we are unable to confirm the precise location of the plane when it last made contact with the satellite." However, the investigation was able to determine that the last communication was in one of two corridors: "the northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand or the southern corridor stretching approximately from Indonesia to Southern Indian Ocean." The investigation team is working to further refine the information. The search in the South China Sea and Gulf of Thailand has been ended. "In view of this latest development the Malaysian Authorities have refocussed their investigation into the crew and passengers on board. Despite media reports, that the plane was hijacked, I wish to be very clear we are still investigating all possibilities as to what caused MH-370 to deviate from its original flight path."

[boeingboy]

His theory is that the pinging was somehow coming from the wreckage, rather than from an intact aircraft.

That is not possible as you need electrical power from the aircraft to do that.

Will someone please give me a factual reference that that was the last ping? (see above post)

[GyvAir]

His theory, not mine.
Unless the plane was so gently wrecked as to keep the wiring harness intact between the Inmarsat unit and the ship's battery as well as the antenna, or the Inmarsat unit had an independent battery that allowed it to keep pinging for a while and enough transmission power to be heard with no antenna connected... either way, I don't buy it.

a factual reference

I personally haven't seen anything at all reported on this story that I would consider to be factual reference. There seem to be inconsistencies and unexplained blanks in every report going whether coming from “anonymous sources” or leaders of nations.

[ourkid2000]

B52:

I have to say that while I'm interested in your theory that the aircraft crashed near the area of last communication and the possibility is as likely as any other, you're coming across like a total psychopath on here. I've happened across your comments on other websites and you seem quite obsessed. If you're ultimately proven wrong, you will really look like a fool.

I'm thinking of starting a drinking game.......every time you mention Michael McKay, everyone take a drink. Anyways, chill out......stay sane.

[AirFrame]

If you don't like my posts don't comment on them.

Sorry, this is an anonymous forum on the Internet. That's what they're for.

[complexintentions]

wow. I go on one longhaul flight and in the interim two pages of speculation get filled up. I can see how being an investigator must suck, with just the sheer amount of noise you have to filter out.

boeingboy (and a PM in my Inbox) mention that ACARS uses the 3rd VHF transceiver, which is the Comm 3, or referred to as as Centre Comm in our company (we use L, R, and C). That is true, and ACARS data is usually sent via VHF as the first choice of radio due to cost. However, if for some reason the centre comm is not available (out of VHF range or you are using it for voice comms, etc) then the system automatically shifts the broadcast of ACARS data over to an HF radio if that is available, or - more likely - satcom. The airline sets the schedule and priority of this, but this is pretty standard. The point is, removing power from the Centre Comm would not "turn off" ACARS. I still believe that the reference to "turned off" the ACARS is a reference to someone on the flight terminating their CPDLC connection.

My takeaway from the briefing was not really a discussion of the finer points of how a datalink connection can be terminated, however. The crucial point was that the authorities believe that the termination of comms (the ACARS and transponder) was WILLFUL. While this whole situation is extremely short of facts and long on wild theories, there are a few points that seem to be agreed upon. And those do overwhelming point to deliberate actions, not an accident.

Both the sequence and timing of the comm loss fall into the "that's how I'd do it" school of thought. If I WANTED to get "lost", I would certainly time it on an FIR handoff, to maximize the time before one of the controlling agencies realized that no one was talking to me. That would also indicate a high degree of planning.

I mean no disrespect, but - given the facts as reported - trying to connect the dots to old ADIRU or autopilot issues is complete grasping at straws and more suited to clueless journalists filling space, than an aviation community. Modern aircraft are highly computer driven and have gone through several software revisions (Boeing calls them Blockpoints) since 2005. Like any software, each revision solves a bunch of bugs, adds some new features - and usually adds a couple new bugs! For example, the latest version (Blockpoint 16) does have a known issue, a few reported cases of uncommanded turns in LNAV. No drama, the correction is simply to engage HDG/TRK mode, correct the course, re-engage LNAV. We ARE still pilots, after all, and even if the autopilots are holding the flight controls in the correct places, WE are still flying the autopilots! (The engineers are aware of it, and it'll be corrected in Blockpoint 17). The point is, bringing up problems long since corrected only muddies the water. Such issues are a red herring to MH370, when it seems beyond dispute that there are other events that have been ruled deliberate and yes, ARE a lot more sinister in implication.

I really am baffled by the continued insistence on clinging to theories that aren't really supported by evidence. Granted, that "evidence" is only as presented in media and by those who of COURSE have their own agendas. But unlike B52 I make no wild claims of talking with those on the ground firsthand, I am basing my own conjecture on what has been presented and my own experience. I have not seen any confirmed report of verified MH370 wreckage. None of the "debris trails" or "oil slicks" have been MH370. But we do seem fairly certain about the deliberate (and thus far successful, I might add) attempts of MH370 to not be seen or found.

A note on the "stolen cargo" theories. In the better part of a decade of international flying out of the Middle East, I have COUNTLESS times received NOTOC's listing 100's of kilos of gold bars, banknotes, diamonds, and the like being carried in the hold. We make our usual little joke about diverting to Aruba and carry on. Once we had a gent who had paid for a second J seat for his large suitcase to be belted into, for a Tehran flight. Apparently, a pretty common way to move cash around the sanctions. So if MH370 was a simple robbery, given how common it is to have massive amounts of valuables on board, why this flight in particular? I consider this scenario highly unlikely as well.

One good point that has been raised a couple of times and to my knowledge, not answered - what WAS the range of the flight, i.e. what was the actual fuel uplift? A poster asked if the potential range a B777-200ER could be a lot longer than the scheduled flight, and the answer is certainly yes. Also, while I cannot speak to MAS policy, it is absolutely within the captain's authority to add more fuel to the flight plan, and with that pax load and planned flight they would have had plenty of payload room to take more fuel if desired. I'd be interested to know if the fuel uplift matched the planned flight.

[CpnCrunch]

Interesting theory here:

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/ ... sia68-sq68

He's saying that another 777 had the exact same track as the one that showed up on radar. His theory is that flight 370 snuck in behind it, so that it would remain undetected. I think that's a bit of a stretch, although if his analysis is correct it does bring up a few possibilities. Most likely would be that the military radar just picked up a completely different plane and flight 370 is somewhere else completely. Assuming that the satellite transceiver did actually remain on for hours afterwards, that would mean that the plane either flew on autopilot with the crew unconscious until it ran out of fuel, or else they managed to land it somewhere gently enough that the power remained on to the satellite transceiver for hours afterwards. (Unfortunately I think the second possibility is pretty unlikely).

[Captain S itmagnet]

I have yet to this addressed in any mainstream media or here...

I have checked Malaysia Airlines website for the features of their IFE system and there is no mention of having a "moving map" like AC's IFE system offers. If this system was in place, and still active, and the passengers were still "aware" of their surroundings, someone must have noticed a diversion if such a thing occurred. Whether they could have done anything will remain unknown for some time of course.
Anyone here either a past traveller on the carrier or familiar with the system? I would assume that such a feature is tied to the plane's GPS, my question is could it be disabled in flight? I know that the whole IFE can be shut down, rebooted etc.

[lownslow]

As usual, the simplest answer turns out to be the correct one.


LnS.

[C-FABH]

I have yet to this addressed in any mainstream media or here...

I have checked Malaysia Airlines website for the features of their IFE system and there is no mention of having a "moving map" like AC's IFE system offers. If this system was in place, and still active, and the passengers were still "aware" of their surroundings, someone must have noticed a diversion if such a thing occurred. Whether they could have done anything will remain unknown for some time of course.
Anyone here either a past traveller on the carrier or familiar with the system? I would assume that such a feature is tied to the plane's GPS, my question is could it be disabled in flight? I know that the whole IFE can be shut down, rebooted etc.

A question running through my head as well. If the MH seatback IFE is equipped with a moving map, surely the cabin crew and pax would have caught on to such a significant course deviation - unless the IFE was intentionally disabled, or some other explanation was offered.

[kev994]

The door is locked and they're over the middle of the ocean. Even if the breaker wasn't pulled with the rest of them what are the pax going to do about it?

[Mig29]

Putin involved in this mystery????? Wow, some of you people gotta get some fresh air or switch your default news channel But being a forum, you are entitled to your opinion.

I wish I'm wrong, but the aircraft is most likely somewhere on the bottom of the sea......either because of mechanical failure or sabotage. In today's world when everyone knows what you had for lunch 5 years ago, and have a picture to prove it, I find it hard to believe that with all the technology and intelligent minds out there, they couldn't trace the last position and find this airplane.

But the more and more media propagate all the nonsense and sensational crap then I'm afraid the truth is drifting away as the days go by...

[Gino Under]

complexintentions

Would you share the evidence you have regarding ADIRUs. I'm accumulating lots of really good info since I'm the one postulating that the automation "might" have lead to a loss of control event due to another possible ADIRU fault. From what I've learned about ADIRUs I'd at least be thinking about it as a possibility rather than go over some of the other theories out there.

I have no doubt many of us share a common core of experience and knowledge but when it comes to imagination we all differ.

Your post, since some of it was aimed at me, simply spells out the in-flight crew response to a failed ADIRU input. (I'm reading the NNC and FCOM bulletins too) What about a startling event like a sudden, uncommanded pitch up, in the middle of the night, over water, high altitude, likely at optimum?

I can tell you from everyday first hand experience not all pilots are created equal which means not all pilots are likely to handle a sudden, unexpected, auto pilot disconnect with their aeroplane rocketing to 45,000 feet, possibly stalling in the process and the ensuing attempted recovery, with the same consistent outcome.

I'm only suggesting this may have happened. Not that it did. I'm merely trying to sort out in my own mind if it did, why would it, and what aircraft systems would likely be affected and what would the likely outcome be. Unfortunately, it all fits. My research, even from Boeing suggests the potential for a catastrophic event would be likely. Is this it?

I'm having a hard time with the implications that the Captain may have been up to something politically sinister because he has Microsoft Flight Simulator on his PC.

Truth is, I'm simply speculating. What can you offer beyond a known recommended procedure for crew when dealing with a failed ADIRU which might not have been applied here?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass, I'm trying to look at things which may be more realistic, like I said, what research have you found regarding ADIRUs?

Cheers,
Gino

[Expat]

Interesting theory here:

http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/ ... sia68-sq68

He's saying that another 777 had the exact same track as the one that showed up on radar. His theory is that flight 370 snuck in behind it, so that it would remain undetected. I think that's a bit of a stretch, although if his analysis is correct it does bring up a few possibilities. Most likely would be that the military radar just picked up a completely different plane and flight 370 is somewhere else completely. Assuming that the satellite transceiver did actually remain on for hours afterwards, that would mean that the plane either flew on autopilot with the crew unconscious until it ran out of fuel, or else they managed to land it somewhere gently enough that the power remained on to the satellite transceiver for hours afterwards. (Unfortunately I think the second possibility is pretty unlikely).

I would like to think that the planes had to be very close to each other, to achieve a one blip ping. But possible, with a very good pilot flying visual.
Second possibility: The plane did actually crashed south of Viet Nam, and the rest of the pings relate to another aircraft entirely. In this part of the world, many aircraft fly with either defective transponders, or cloaked. I have tried to track flights here in Af, that did not exist on tracking sites...
Third option: People mention very well trained pilots, flying sophisticated maneuvers, to avoid being identified. If these pilots were so good, and had planned it so well, then they would not have stupidly crashed out of fuel. They would be somewhere having rum and cigars.( Sorry, that was 40 years ago. They would be drinking tea, and smoking shishas!)
If the third options is right, it could explain the theory of the GE pings. It could also explain while relatives got mobile messages that the phones were alive. Passengers? Another question.
Regarding the Inmarsat pings, I even have doubts. When flying with CASARA, I have worked with printout of ELT pings. They are very hard to interpret, and you could produce the result you wanted.
So it leaves two questions in my wary mind.
The first is follow the money. We all agree on this?
Who looses the most? Or gains the most, from these scenarios? The loss of an aircraft is nothing compared to the loss to Boeing shareholders. The 777 has a good reputation, and the loss of MH370 to a mechanical failure would have hurt Boeing shares a lot. So, nothing better than to extend the search, and eventually find the plane much later, with a lesser impact on share prices. After all, we live in a world of deception, and financial matters matter.
It is very easy for a powerful western nation to use this event, with Muslim pilots, to divert attention from the facts.
Note: A plane that comes in the opposite direction, and goes to FL45, than descents, and continues to fly, and disappear, is a typical spy plane. We have them over here. The CL 600 do it all the time.
This is not Canada here...
All right, good night!

[Rowdy]

I have refrained thus far from posting, as I am of the impression that these threads drag out all sorts of emotion and wild claims and ego.. but expat.. I do believe you're on the right track with your comments. Follow the money. A triple seven having an inflight breakup would be catastrophic not only for Boeing and it's shareholders, but every other 777 operator globally. There are over 1100 in operation and another few hundred on order/in production.

There certainly are an increasing number of far fetched conspiracy theories. The only KNOWN facts are the time at which it was lost from SSR and that, this particular airframe had structural damage a few years prior from that wing strike. The rest is hearsay and unsupported. Time will tell.

[Old fella]

Well, since many are on the bandwagon here is my two cents worth (probably no value). The Captain as has been reported was very active on the political stage, certainly a “hyper-partisan” by our standards aka the Pierre Poilievre CPC type and this Captain had the ear of the Democratic opposition party being a very vocal supporter. Malaysian Airlines parent company is a Government Holding Company, in other words the current Malaysian Government is this hyper-partisan Captain’s employer. Perhaps the pilot’s activity raised the ire of the Government to the point he was/is to be placed on the disciplined list and told to cease his activity forthwith as it is an embarrassment to the company. Perhaps he was taking his political activity to a much higher level that would be normal for such an individual. It has been reported(unconfirmed) this Captain’s family left the home a day before the fateful flight, perhaps there was something very serious going down for that to happen. The shit really did hit the fan and this hyper-partisan felt he is getting f---ed over and things were closing in and if such is the case, well people…..”watch this”. The airplane is probably on the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

Perhaps I am full of shit. Feel free to say so.

[boeingboy]

For those who were wondering......

The aircraft took off with the fuel planned according to flight plan, there was no additional fuel loaded. The crew members had not requested to fly together. The team of Inmarsat have arrived in Malaysia supporting the investigation. Priority is still on the search and rescue operation. There have been no attempts to contact Malaysia, the airline or any other party in order to seek ransom or other compensation in exchange for occupants or the aircraft. There was no hazardeous cargo on board, the cargo has been checked according to standard operating procedures.

[CpnCrunch]

For those who were wondering......

The aircraft took off with the fuel planned according to flight plan, there was no additional fuel loaded. The crew members had not requested to fly together. The team of Inmarsat have arrived in Malaysia supporting the investigation. Priority is still on the search and rescue operation. There have been no attempts to contact Malaysia, the airline or any other party in order to seek ransom or other compensation in exchange for occupants or the aircraft. There was no hazardeous cargo on board, the cargo has been checked according to standard operating procedures.

Not quite true about the cargo .There was a large consignment of lithium ion batteries.