Potential Strike Topic?

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rudder
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by rudder »

timeflies wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:17 pm
Last time I saw a CR picture(s), it wasn't with Jazz CEO but with Sky's.

This is a business and AC doesn't care about a good JET operator but a cheap one who gets the job done.
If you believe that rounds of golf with CR are a guarantee of status quo then you may be in for a surprise.

CR has a consistent track record. Business comes first.

SKY served a purpose in 2011 when AC wanted to diversify Express work away from Jazz. SKY served a purpose again in 2013 after AC won the right through arbitration to place the 15 mainline 175’s at Express.

Now with another crisis foisted upon AC, it will be what’s best for AC that prevails.

I doubt that status quo is on the table. CEO’s don’t make sentimental decisions. Both RP and CR know that. It is never personal.
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straight2thepoint
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by straight2thepoint »

Tentative agreement has been reached. No details until the first road show.
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timeflies
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by timeflies »

rudder wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:33 pm
timeflies wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:17 pm
Last time I saw a CR picture(s), it wasn't with Jazz CEO but with Sky's.

This is a business and AC doesn't care about a good JET operator but a cheap one who gets the job done.
If you believe that rounds of golf with CR are a guarantee of status quo then you may be in for a surprise.

CR has a consistent track record. Business comes first.

SKY served a purpose in 2011 when AC wanted to diversify Express work away from Jazz. SKY served a purpose again in 2013 after AC won the right through arbitration to place the 15 mainline 175’s at Express.

Now with another crisis foisted upon AC, it will be what’s best for AC that prevails.

I doubt that status quo is on the table. CEO’s don’t make sentimental decisions. Both RP and CR know that. It is never personal.
My post had the same intent as yours - it's a business first. but saying that sky days are numbered since day one is not a fact. Not a fan of his, but If one thinks RP wouldn't do anything to keep his airline alive he may be in for a surprise as well.

The question is : with all the booking cancellations, most of the flights are going 30-50% empty if not more. Will AC replace the routes affected with a smaller aircraft? hence the e190 and e175 replacing the A320 on the YYZ-LGA segment in April.
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rudder
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by rudder »

timeflies wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:06 pm The question is : with all the booking cancellations, most of the flights are going 30-50% empty if not more. Will AC replace the routes affected with a smaller aircraft? hence the e190 and e175 replacing the A320 on the YYZ-LGA segment in April.
This is about owned vs leased.

It is cheaper to park owned since lease payments still have to be made therefore corresponding revenue is critical.

AC can tell Jazz to park aircraft, but contractual CPA payments must still be made which includes CHR cost of ownership on those airframes.

Get out a list of aircraft that AC owns (including Express) and you will have a good idea of which planes will be idled.
Also, near term lease expiries will also be parked.

As for schedule, it will likely be higher gauge/lower frequency until passenger demand recovers.
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GoinVertical
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by GoinVertical »

rudder wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm
timeflies wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:06 pm The question is : with all the booking cancellations, most of the flights are going 30-50% empty if not more. Will AC replace the routes affected with a smaller aircraft? hence the e190 and e175 replacing the A320 on the YYZ-LGA segment in April.
This is about owned vs leased.

It is cheaper to park owned since lease payments still have to be made therefore corresponding revenue is critical.

AC can tell Jazz to park aircraft, but contractual CPA payments must still be made which includes CHR cost of ownership on those airframes.

Get out a list of aircraft that AC owns (including Express) and you will have a good idea of which planes will be idled.
Also, near term lease expiries will also be parked.

As for schedule, it will likely be higher gauge/lower frequency until passenger demand recovers.
Let's say a company has two airplanes - an owned E175 and a leased A320.

Loads are down and flights are averaging 50 Pax. You going to operate the A320 for 50 Pax just because you are paying a lease? You have to pay for it whether you park it or fly it, so why would you lose more money by running a plane that can't turn a profit on the route?

In general I'm sure they would rather operate leases to retain value on their own aircraft, but when we are talking about load factors dropping significantly the E175 may still be cheaper to operate even factoring depreciation.
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rudder
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by rudder »

I won’t copy the previous text.

Your argument best applies for one flight per day with gauge matching demand.

But more likely is that we are talking about routes with existing multiple frequencies where AC will reduce capacity to match demand. Part of that can be accomplished by reducing frequency combined with adjusting upwards applicable gauge.

No different than the strategy AC has used to migrate routes from Jazz/Express to Rouge.
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GoinVertical
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by GoinVertical »

If they lower frequency too much they will end up with even less passengers bothering to travel.

Lots of ways to skin the cat, but I can see some mainline point to point routes that are fairly low frequency to begin with going to Sky in the short term, while Sky loses plenty of spoke routes.

Does ACPA have any route protections, or is the scope strictly limited to number of seats?
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rudder
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by rudder »

GoinVertical wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:57 pm If they lower frequency too much they will end up with even less passengers bothering to travel.

Lots of ways to skin the cat, but I can see some mainline point to point routes that are fairly low frequency to begin with going to Sky in the short term, while Sky loses plenty of spoke routes.

Does ACPA have any route protections, or is the scope strictly limited to number of seats?
ACPA has fleet ratio protections.

If mainline gets smaller (less aircraft) -
then Express gets smaller (less 76 seat jets).
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derateNO
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by derateNO »

Well, no not really.

Jazz for example as fleet numbers set in stone within their CPA.

They may loose block hours but the aircraft/FIN numbers won't drop below the minimum.
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Art Garfunkel
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by Art Garfunkel »

I don't think higher gauge less frequency applies to LGA, DCA, EWR, DFW, BOS, ORD and ATL. All will stay mostly with 76 seat jets either 900s or 175s. The forgiveness on slots will only be for a very short term, then back to use them or lose them.

Also, 25% of Air Canada's NB fleet is already parked until the fall.
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rudder
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by rudder »

derateNO wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:30 am Well, no not really.

Jazz for example as fleet numbers set in stone within their CPA.

They may loose block hours but the aircraft/FIN numbers won't drop below the minimum.
I didn’t say that Jazz may have to reduce, I said Express.

And yes, Jazz has minimum fleet protections (courtesy of the modified/extended CPA) unless AC decides to suggest force majeure.

Does anybody know what protections SKY has commercially? Are they the same as GGN had? Look how that turned out. And that was before the COVID-19 crisis was ever contemplated.

Everything will be on the table.
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hithere
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by hithere »

I’m amazed you were actually able to get Sky management to agree to a tentative agreement at this time. I would have thought that all the pilot’s bargaining leverage would have evaporated due to Covid
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timeflies
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by timeflies »

hithere wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:47 pm I’m amazed you were actually able to get Sky management to agree to a tentative agreement at this time. I would have thought that all the pilot’s bargaining leverage would have evaporated due to Covid
who knows what's in the TA anyway, not so optimistic about this.

meanwhile i'm seeing dozens of AC flights (operated by SKY) cancelled over the next 2 days.
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straight2thepoint
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by straight2thepoint »

We’re blocked 75-85 hours for April. Same as what we had for January FYI.
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CanadianPilotQc
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Re: Potential Strike Topic?

Post by CanadianPilotQc »

That's more Pairing protection because a schedule has to be made, by any means. Looks like it's a day to day situation. Trump can close the border anytime and that would be a show stopper.
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