Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

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columbia
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by columbia »

FL-280 wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.

Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots

Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched

Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio

Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio

Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.

Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
I don’t think you read the report right. The remaining pilots hired before October 17th 2000 (Category 6) was integrated by straight ratio.
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Fanblade
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Fanblade »

The Keller arbitration was 8:1 at the bottom. 8 AC pilots for every 1 CDN. AC pilots made up almost 90% of the bottom 25% of the combined list when done.

No one was tacked on the bottom. That isn’t accepted as integration.

The only thing I can guarantee is that the last person on each list will sit next to each other on the combined list and arbitrators don’t seem to care much about what happens at the bottom. Re read that last part of the sentence.

Arbitrators don’t care who you work for. They don’t care about future expectations. Those expectations vaporized when AC purchase Transat. They don’t care about the financial situation of one company over another. They have one job and that’s to glue two groups together as THEY see fit.

Sounds harsh, but it’s reality.

In the case of the AC/CDN merger the arbitrator dragged so many CDN pilots up the list while setting ratios, trying to create their version of equity between the two groups in the top 2/3 of the list, that there was very few CDN pilots left to merge with the bottom 1/3 of the AC pilot group. 120 CDN pilots rings a bell. That is why the ratio was 8:1. There was no rational for the 8:1 ratio other than that was simply what was left over. 8:1 may seem extreme for a pilot group that was 2:1 on a straight ratio but no one cared. It was at the bottom.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:16 pm, edited 5 times in total.
FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL320 »

If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Great so all the years I spent at Jazz (like MANY Transat pilots) will be a benefit :o
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columbia
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by columbia »

Fanblade wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:38 pm The Keller arbitration was 8:1 at the bottom. 8 AC pilots for every 1 CDN. AC pilots made up almost 90% of the bottom 25% of the combined list.

No one was tacked on the bottom. That isn’t accepted as integration.

The only thing I can guarantee is that the last person on each list will sit next to each other on the combined list and arbitrators don’t seem to care much about what happens at the bottom. Re read that last part of the sentence.

Arbitrators don’t care who you work for. They don’t care about future expectations. They don’t care about the financial situation of one company over another. They have one job and that’s to glue two groups together as THEY see fit.

In the case of the AC/CDN merger the arbitrator dragged so many CDN pilots up the list while setting ratios, trying to create their version of equity between the two groups in the top 2/3 of the list, that there was very few CDN pilots left to merge with the bottom 1/3 of the AC pilot group. 120 CDN pilots rings a bell. That is why the ratio was 8:1. There was no rational for the 8:1 ratio other than that was simply what was left over. 8:1 may seem extreme for a pilot group that was 2:1 on a straight ratio but no one cared. It was at the bottom.
Exactly.
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Fanblade
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Fanblade »

Xxxxx wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.

Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
planebored
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by planebored »

Fanblade wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:06 pm
milhouse wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.

Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
It will work against everyone who stayed at a regional.

AT hires much younger pilots typically than AC. So buddy with the same date of hire as an AC guy will likely be younger.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.

I wouldn't rule it out.

That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.

Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.

2 shrinking airlines at that.
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:52 am Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.

I wouldn't rule it out.

That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.

Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.

2 shrinking airlines at that.
4250 + 650 = 4850

Any guesses as to total required pilots for January 2021 (date of corporate closing)? June 2021? June 2022?

What happens if AC decides to announce permanent reductions in the B777 fleet? What happens when TS announces permanent fleet reductions?

Saying that an arbitrator (panel?) will need a crystal ball is an understatement.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

rudder wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:06 am
altiplano wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:52 am Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.

I wouldn't rule it out.

That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.

Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.

2 shrinking airlines at that.
4250 + 650 = 4̶8̶5̶0̶ 4900

Any guesses as to total required pilots for January 2021 (date of corporate closing)? June 2021? June 2022?

What happens if AC decides to announce permanent reductions in the B777 fleet? What happens when TS announces permanent fleet reductions?

Saying that an arbitrator (panel?) will need a crystal ball is an understatement.
And recall that the last AC bid that was cancelled as this p̶a̶n̶d̶e̶m̶i̶c̶ travesty of government policy spooled up was almost 5000...

I think we'll end up with about 3600 combined by end of next year. That might be generous.

Rousseau said the attractive thing with the TS Neo was that they won't have to pay to replace some of their older Airbuses... how can that factor as growth? At TS 310s and 737s will be gone. Older 330s gone. At AC 767s are gone. EMJs are gone. Older buses gone. LRs will probably go when it's convenient. Maybe the ERs too depending how much longer this clown world goes on...
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milhouse
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by milhouse »

Fanblade wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:06 pm
milhouse wrote: Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.

Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
That wasn't my post so please don't attribute it to me.
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

4900. Thx :-)

It would be helpful if following the DCC in January 2021, there will be a fleet plan that describes 2021 (anomaly), 2022 (recovery), and 2023 (closer to end state).

Good luck to all. Hopefully the consolidation process will not happen under the umbrella of CCAA.
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FL-280
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

Career Expectations, number of widebody positions, base, age, salary etc.... all these are taken into account.
Whoever says otherwise didn't read up on, Virgin v. Alaska, United V. Continental or especially Northwest v. Delta!!
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:17 am
Rousseau said the attractive thing with the TS Neo was that they won't have to pay to replace some of their older Airbuses... how can that factor as growth? At TS 310s and 737s will be gone. Older 330s gone. At AC 767s are gone. EMJs are gone. Older buses gone. LRs will probably go when it's convenient. Maybe the ERs too depending how much longer this clown world goes on...
It seems that AC committing to the MAX is a mistake, particularly given COVID reduced demand and the TS merger. Many carriers are deferring MAX deliveries without penalty. AC would be better served to exit that platform and commit to a majority Airbus NB fleet.

Alaska is indicating that it wants to dramatically increase the MAX fleet. And it wants to accelerate the elimination of the remaining ex-VX 320’s and NEO’s.

Seems like a logical opportunity for AC and AS to do a deal.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

I don't think they are looking to get out of the Max.

In fact I understand they like it.

EMJ fuel burns with 80% more passengers and better range, and a lower CASM than the 320neo.

I don't think they'll order more, but 50 aircraft certainly allows for economy of scale to be present. And it has its place. If they end up with a mixed NB fleet of 321/Max8/220 they really would have the best in each size.

I see continuing to run them on southern and transcon routes, Hawaii, they might even be deployed to open up some formerly WB Western Europe routes.

That said, I'm sure the plan changes daily...
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:01 am I don't think they are looking to get out of the Max.

In fact I understand they like it.

EMJ fuel burns with 80% more passengers and better range, and a lower CASM than the 320neo.

I don't think they'll order more, but 50 aircraft certainly allows for economy of scale to be present. And it has its place. If they end up with a mixed NB fleet of 321/Max8/220 they really would have the best in each size.

I see continuing to run them on southern and transcon routes, Hawaii, they might even be deployed to open up some formerly WB Western Europe routes.

That said, I'm sure the plan changes daily...
Well, an end state NB fleet of approx 150 with 3 fleet types, three type endorsements, and three sets of spares. Not necessarily ideal.

An A321NEO is a far superior platform than a MAX9. However, AC converted all orders to MAX8 so likely that particular comparison was irrelevant. Is a MAX8 superior to a 320NEO? If you factor in efficiency related to commonality, perhaps not. The A220 most certainly represents a superior platform to the A319.

I also understand the continued A220 commitment due to the fact that they were purchased for less per unit than a new CRJ900. Perhaps AC scored a 50% discount on the MAX order. I doubt that we will ever know.

One can only envy operators that will not have to go through the PR exercise associated with the return to service of the MAX.
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Fanblade
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Fanblade »

FL-280 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:35 am Career Expectations, number of widebody positions, base, age, salary etc.... all these are taken into account.
Whoever says otherwise didn't read up on, Virgin v. Alaska, United V. Continental or especially Northwest v. Delta!!
Yes all of those factors exist within Canadian jurisprudence on mergers with the exclusion of career expectations. Salary was cast aside as irrelevant 17 years ago.

Do you have any Canadian jurisprudence on career expectations? I haven’t seen it. 17 years ago we were told expectations vaporized on merger. Those expectations that did exist are only near term. Expectations become more and more irrelevant the longer the timeline or juniority on the individual.

The US is far more capitalist in its approach. Always has been. I acknowledge the US has started moving in that direction.

If a group is able to introduce career expectations and have a Canadian arbitrator work with it, it will be a first. You live in Canada and our attitudes towards you lost, back of the line is not the same.

An arbitrator uses a snapshot in time to make their decisions. At this moment, what are anyone’s expectations other than hopefully dodging CCAA?

Calin for his part has stated that Transat must match AC’s staff reductions. Right out of the CEO’s mouth. Equal expectations.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

What the CEO says what ends up happening between two unionized groups is two different things. I remain confident, TS pilots will have some sort of penalty on their DOH through a premium ratio applied to AC pilots.
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Fanblade
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Fanblade »

FL-280 wrote: Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:31 am What the CEO says what ends up happening between two unionized groups is two different things. I remain confident, TS pilots will have some sort of penalty on their DOH through a premium ratio applied to AC pilots.
You will find that what the CEO says does matter. The reason is it speaks to the owners intentions. If the owners intentions were to liquidate it would matter. He just stated I bought Transat and my intentions for their employees is the same as for AC employees.

Of course this merger won’t be DOH. It CAN’T because we (AC) don’t have a DOH list. My point is don’t focus on things that are irrelevant.

Jurisprudence says they will be spread across our list based on groupings. There will be an in-depth look at which aircraft are grouped together. Then how many positions exist on each side to devise a ratio for that group. If 400 AC pilots and 100 Transat pilots are found to be in a group the ratio will be 4:1. The process is methodical. It is not opinion based.

It will be what constitutes a group were the battleground exists.

Do 777 positions get grouped with a 330 positions?

Or are all widebody positions one group? And all narrow body the other group?

Do Rouge and Transat positions get grouped equally with mainline positions?

The thing is. The bottom still ends up at the bottom on both sides.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:58 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

Arbitrators are not bound by either jurisprudence nor precedent in an interest dispute. They are only bound by the terms of reference of their mandate as provided. Having said that, arbitrators have either seen the issue before or will familiarize themselves with prior awards on similar subject matter (or the parties will do that via their submissions).

I presume that if the parties cannot agree on terms of reference that the CIRB will provide them. Terms of reference is not outcome - it is the process and limits to jurisdiction.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by whipline »

I have no skin in the game. Just read “Air Canada is not date of hire”? How is your list made?
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