Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

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Jean-Luc Monette
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Jean-Luc Monette »

It’s funny how a handful of individuals, on either side of this proposed transaction although unverifiable because of their posting under anonymous handles, seem to think they represent the majority of their respective colleagues’ opinions...
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

jetpilot wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:18 pm
You so funny i was hired at 30 yrs old you keep insulting me? Be a man.....
Take a chill pill Luc...

I won't go as low as you have, posting links to social media pages, physical threats and questioning your manhood. But yet I am the piece of shit?
Maybe all of us should step back from our computer for a bit and put things into perspective. An arbitrator will decide and will look at FACTS.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by jetpilot »

FL-280 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:17 am
jetpilot wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:18 pm
You so funny i was hired at 30 yrs old you keep insulting me? Be a man.....
Take a chill pill Luc...

I won't go as low as you have, posting links to social media pages, physical threats and questioning your manhood. But yet I am the piece of shit?
Maybe all of us should step back from our computer for a bit and put things into perspective. An arbitrator will decide and will look at FACTS.
I agree with you! it is a very emotional time for all of us you need to understand i love my Air Transat family and we have no power on what is happening next .
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FL-280
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

jetpilot wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:40 am
I agree with you! it is a very emotional time for all of us you need to understand i love my Air Transat family and we have no power on what is happening next .
I can relate to that! It is a very emotional time for us too. We have that in common, we both love our jobs and are holding on to what we have...
At the end of the day, it's out of our hands. Mergers are never easy, and it's my second one in two years. So, I am tired of giving, giving and more giving (last merger went DOH) and getting nothing in return.

Maybe we will fly together someday, maybe we won't. But if we do, I am sure we will find that we have more issues we agree on than we think.

Cheers
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:42 am
altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Fact is the combined airline will be smaller than were they seperate. Transat is now bringing even fewer fins than they were pre-pandemic and those will simply replace older 320s that will now leave the AC fleet. Rouseau already said that. So there won't be more fins. And which slot limited airports does Transat have rights to that AC doesn't?

There is no growth here. Just the elimination of a competitor. AC was already going to be smaller post-pandemic, and now we have more people looking for seats.

I know you liked your deal at Transat, that's good, I like my deal here too. I like and respect you and your colleagues, and when you come here that's fine, it's not personal, it's not against you, it's just a shitty outcome for a bunch of AC guys that have already lost seniority/upgrades/job/etc with this pandemic and are now going to be pushed down the list by guys coming from an airline that is barely flying as is.

I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Desirable? Yes. Likely? No.

Let’s skip 2021 which is a crapshoot and is artificially maintaining some degree of pilot surplus.

Guesses for merged active in a combined bid (factoring in AC only pilot staffing estimate for summer 2022 via Bid 20-02/3300):

2022 - 3700

2023 - 4200

2024 - 4700 *(represents previous combined peak active pilots)

2025+ - ???

AC never reached over 5000 required pilots or a seniority list over 4500. Only on paper (Bid 2019-02). That included a Rouge fleet of 60 airplanes. TS inventory will form part of the reconstituted Rouge/LCC as that segment recovers. Another poster suggested that the deployable TS fleet will be 12 330/ 15 321.

I cannot envision the merged entity doing any pilot hiring prior to 2024. Age 65 attrition will help although quite a few that were due 2021-2024 went early in the incentivized programs.

I hope for the inactive pilots and the next generation of pilots in waiting that the recovery comes sooner and that growth rates equal or exceed 2018/2019, but there are many hurdles that remain in the airline sector. Canada remains a country with a population base of just 35 million. There will still be intense domestic based and international based competition looking to restore capacity. Being pragmatic in estimating recovery for planning purposes is wiser than being overly optimistic.
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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

rudder wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 am
altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Desirable? Yes. Likely? No.

Let’s skip 2021 which is a crapshoot and is artificially maintaining some degree of pilot surplus.

Guesses for merged active in a combined bid (factoring in AC only pilot staffing estimate for summer 2022 via Bid 20-02/3300):

2022 - 3700

2023 - 4200

2024 - 4700 *(represents previous combined peak active pilots)

2025+ - ???

AC never reached over 5000 required pilots or a seniority list over 4500. Only on paper (Bid 2019-02). That included a Rouge fleet of 60 airplanes. TS inventory will form part of the reconstituted Rouge/LCC as that segment recovers. Another poster suggested that the deployable TS fleet will be 12 330/ 15 321.

I cannot envision the merged entity doing any pilot hiring prior to 2024. Age 65 attrition will help although quite a few that were due 2021-2024 went early in the incentivized programs.

I hope for the inactive pilots and the next generation of pilots in waiting that the recovery comes sooner and that growth rates equal or exceed 2018/2019, but there are many hurdles that remain in the airline sector. Canada remains a country with a population base of just 35 million. There will still be intense domestic based and international based competition looking to restore capacity. Being pragmatic in estimating recovery for planning purposes is wiser than being overly optimistic.
Of course it's not likely. That's my point.

I would characterise your forecast numbers as optimistic, yet we will have to integrate 650 pilots while we lay off and downbid further positions. 27 planes, that we will retire fins to integrate,

I'm not sure why some guys can't accept that isn't something I would want.

Look forward to being proven wrong... but I don't think I will be.
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:30 am
Of course it's not likely. That's my point.

I would characterise your forecast numbers as optimistic, yet we will have to integrate 650 pilots while we lay off and downbid further positions. 27 planes, that we will retire fins to integrate,

I'm not sure why some guys can't accept that isn't something I would want.

Look forward to being proven wrong... but I don't think I will be.
I agree. There are certainly some fleet variables that are not necessarily manifest in the current 2022 staffing projection.

And there are some very large aircraft that went to Marana that are probably not coming back. And I don’t mean 767’s.

It would not surprise me to see a 330/787 WB fleet as the end state (although the 350 is a beautiful airplane). I do not see 468 seat configured aircraft being part of the future. And it would take a permanent cargo conversion to maximize revenue from that platform in the next few years. Highly unlikely.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL320 »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.
Just curious: You -as B737max pilot- do you acknowledge a reasonably good deal at the cost of the other guys -your junior colleagues on other fleets- that have been laid off? (my good friend FO on the 320 is one of them and does not say nice words about it)

And here is why YOU won the lottery in this unfair world: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2020/10/18/ ... -canada-1 « Ottawa ready to buy parts of AC »
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by milhouse »

FL320 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:15 pm
altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.
And here is why YOU won the lottery in this unfair world: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2020/10/18/ ... -canada-1 « Ottawa ready to buy parts of AC »
Way to post an article (in french) about how AC MIGHT get government assistance. And what even makes you think AC would be interested in a deal that involves giving up equity?

There is also nothing unfair about it, the canadian public needs air canada/westjet a whole lot more than they need a seasonal vacation airline.

Somehow I'm not surprised you get your news from TVA...
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Thorjones »

Posting this in hopes of making this thread's first post on the 69th page


Nice.


Edit: Aww damn it
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by mbav8r »

I’ll try
Edit: dang it!
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by mbav8r »

But really, I hope ALPA infiltrates ACPA and I get on the list wayyyy above sharklaser!
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
TFTMB heavy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:42 am
altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Fact is the combined airline will be smaller than were they seperate. Transat is now bringing even fewer fins than they were pre-pandemic and those will simply replace older 320s that will now leave the AC fleet. Rouseau already said that. So there won't be more fins. And which slot limited airports does Transat have rights to that AC doesn't?

There is no growth here. Just the elimination of a competitor. AC was already going to be smaller post-pandemic, and now we have more people looking for seats.

I know you liked your deal at Transat, that's good, I like my deal here too. I like and respect you and your colleagues, and when you come here that's fine, it's not personal, it's not against you, it's just a shitty outcome for a bunch of AC guys that have already lost seniority/upgrades/job/etc with this pandemic and are now going to be pushed down the list by guys coming from an airline that is barely flying as is.

I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Certainly not as good a deal post pandemic for AC pilots but could also be devastating for TS when AC reveals the business plan.

I don't get replacing older 320s with 321LR, not the same scope of mission? TS has routes just for those LRs on the TA in small markets and also bigger ones to support wide bodies where frequency can be increased. I never said we went to slot limited airports, just that we have a passenger base and if AC wants to profit from it they need the TS brand. That brand comes with planes and pilots.

Both sides have lost a lot with this pandemic. We just lost a bunch of flying to AC, all domestic routes are gone and pax put on AC. Would this have happened without the arrangement agreement?
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by JoeyBarton »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:43 pm
altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
TFTMB heavy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:42 am

This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Fact is the combined airline will be smaller than were they seperate. Transat is now bringing even fewer fins than they were pre-pandemic and those will simply replace older 320s that will now leave the AC fleet. Rouseau already said that. So there won't be more fins. And which slot limited airports does Transat have rights to that AC doesn't?

There is no growth here. Just the elimination of a competitor. AC was already going to be smaller post-pandemic, and now we have more people looking for seats.

I know you liked your deal at Transat, that's good, I like my deal here too. I like and respect you and your colleagues, and when you come here that's fine, it's not personal, it's not against you, it's just a shitty outcome for a bunch of AC guys that have already lost seniority/upgrades/job/etc with this pandemic and are now going to be pushed down the list by guys coming from an airline that is barely flying as is.

I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Certainly not as good a deal post pandemic for AC pilots but could also be devastating for TS when AC reveals the business plan.

I don't get replacing older 320s with 321LR, not the same scope of mission? TS has routes just for those LRs on the TA in small markets and also bigger ones to support wide bodies where frequency can be increased. I never said we went to slot limited airports, just that we have a passenger base and if AC wants to profit from it they need the TS brand. That brand comes with planes and pilots.

Both sides have lost a lot with this pandemic. We just lost a bunch of flying to AC, all domestic routes are gone and pax put on AC. Would this have happened without the arrangement agreement?
Is there any proof to this? I mean are the domestic routes cut and pax flown on ac metal? Are passengers notified of it?
Seems to be pure speculation at this point isn't it?
This is only an agreement not an acquisition yet. Isn't there any scope provision in Transat CBA that requires transat pax and business to be flown on transat metal?
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL320 »

We got a memo from the union about it; and all domestic flights suddenly showed 0 pax in our system although they were showing 75% full. No more info.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by JoeyBarton »

FL320 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:11 pm We got a memo from the union about it; and all domestic flights suddenly showed 0 pax in our system although they were showing 75% full. No more info.
Hence my question? Is there any provision in the CBA pertaining to transat passengers flown on transat metal?
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by skypirate88 »

JoeyBarton wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:23 pm
FL320 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:11 pm We got a memo from the union about it; and all domestic flights suddenly showed 0 pax in our system although they were showing 75% full. No more info.
Hence my question? Is there any provision in the CBA pertaining to transat passengers flown on transat metal?
Welcome to Air Canada. You'll quickly learn what is written in a collective agreement is little more than a suggestion that the corp will follow only if it suits.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

JoeyBarton wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:23 pm
FL320 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:11 pm We got a memo from the union about it; and all domestic flights suddenly showed 0 pax in our system although they were showing 75% full. No more info.
Hence my question? Is there any provision in the CBA pertaining to transat passengers flown on transat metal?
A percentage of all flights sold by TS have to be flow by Air Transat pilots. THen a percentage of that have to be on wide bodies
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