Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

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Sharklasers
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by Sharklasers »

JoeyBarton wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:17 am TS pilots getting their vacation and sick days paid? What's the consensus on this deal from a TS point of view?
It has to do with the CLC, the CLC allows companies to withold vacation pay if the layoff is considered to be temporary which means less than 12 months. It’s clear that covid will drag past the 12 months at this point and entitlements must be released.
Vacation and severance pay (initially and then fixed under an MOA) were withheld from AC pilots as well but will be paid out shortly
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columbia
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by columbia »

tom wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:16 pm I guess no deal then.
Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by tsgas »

columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm
tom wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:16 pm I guess no deal then.
Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
The only thing that can save it is if the EU allows it without any restrictions and Canada backs off on some of the insane conditions that it imposed on AC.
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by throwaway123 »

Sharklasers wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:27 pm
JoeyBarton wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:17 am TS pilots getting their vacation and sick days paid? What's the consensus on this deal from a TS point of view?
It has to do with the CLC, the CLC allows companies to withold vacation pay if the layoff is considered to be temporary which means less than 12 months. It’s clear that covid will drag past the 12 months at this point and entitlements must be released.
Vacation and severance pay (initially and then fixed under an MOA) were withheld from AC pilots as well but will be paid out shortly
All the furloughs got their furlough and vacation pay paid out in the fall at AC.
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columbia
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by columbia »

tsgas wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:02 pm
columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm
tom wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:16 pm I guess no deal then.
Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
The only thing that can save it is if the EU allows it without any restrictions and Canada backs off on some of the insane conditions that it imposed on AC.
Won’t happen. Govnmt won’t let TS die anyway, better this way for everybody. Merger would’ve been a total mess for everyone.
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tsgas
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by tsgas »

columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:45 am
tsgas wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:02 pm
columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm

Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
The only thing that can save it is if the EU allows it without any restrictions and Canada backs off on some of the insane conditions that it imposed on AC.
Won’t happen. Govnmt won’t let TS die anyway, better this way for everybody. Merger would’ve been a total mess for everyone.
I agree but TS will be end up being a lot smaller with fewer employees.
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by ToolShed »

columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:45 am
tsgas wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:02 pm
columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm

Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
The only thing that can save it is if the EU allows it without any restrictions and Canada backs off on some of the insane conditions that it imposed on AC.
Won’t happen. Govnmt won’t let TS die anyway, better this way for everybody. Merger would’ve been a total mess for everyone.
Don't be so sure about that.

It let Bombardier die...$1 for C-Series. TS can be easily laid to rest in a Covid environment.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by Sharklasers »

ToolShed wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:28 am
columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:45 am
tsgas wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:02 pm

The only thing that can save it is if the EU allows it without any restrictions and Canada backs off on some of the insane conditions that it imposed on AC.
Won’t happen. Govnmt won’t let TS die anyway, better this way for everybody. Merger would’ve been a total mess for everyone.
Don't be so sure about that.

It let Bombardier die...$1 for C-Series. TS can be easily laid to rest in a Covid environment.

Nah, the premier of Quebec publicly said he has no problems throwing Alberta’s money at Transat to keep it going.
Transat might shrink but they aren’t going anywhere.
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columbia
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by columbia »

Sharklasers wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:51 am
ToolShed wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:28 am
columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:45 am

Won’t happen. Govnmt won’t let TS die anyway, better this way for everybody. Merger would’ve been a total mess for everyone.
Don't be so sure about that.

It let Bombardier die...$1 for C-Series. TS can be easily laid to rest in a Covid environment.

Nah, the premier of Quebec publicly said he has no problems throwing Alberta’s money at Transat to keep it going.
Transat might shrink but they aren’t going anywhere.
Every company will shrink for a while. AC’s ex ceo CR said in an interview yesterday leisure travel and visiting family and friends will rebound strong and the demand huge. Transat’s fleet will be perfect for it. As for business travel, this should be the one that will take the longer time to comeback to pre pandemic levels according to many aviation industry analysts.

Never underestimate Transat ability to fight and comeback strong. They’ve done it in the past, and they’ll do it again.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by Sharklasers »

columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:46 pm

Every company will shrink for a while. AC’s ex ceo CR said in an interview yesterday leisure travel and visiting family and friends will rebound strong and the demand huge.


Yeah, that’s definitely what he’s said.......
“I think that you’re going to see, after this pandemic is adequately out of the way, you will see some pent-up demand coming back for leisure, for people going to concerts and seeing things like that, that will happen and there will be price stimulation,”

As for Transats ‘perfect fleet’ there isn’t anything AC needs your expensive fleet of leased aircraft for that their efficient fleet of A220, 737, and 787 can’t do themselves. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the c suite would rather buy Trz and put that pony out to pasture then spend another decade playing wack-a-mole with a taxpayer backed Transat. I still think this deal happens but don’t delude yourself that Transat is poised to come rip roaring back. Don’t forget TS was circling the drain long before covid hit, they were the only major airline that managed to continually lose money during one of the biggest upswings in aviation history.
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columbia
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by columbia »

Sharklasers wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:26 pm
columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:46 pm

Every company will shrink for a while. AC’s ex ceo CR said in an interview yesterday leisure travel and visiting family and friends will rebound strong and the demand huge.


Yeah, that’s definitely what he’s said.......
“I think that you’re going to see, after this pandemic is adequately out of the way, you will see some pent-up demand coming back for leisure, for people going to concerts and seeing things like that, that will happen and there will be price stimulation,”

As for Transats ‘perfect fleet’ there isn’t anything AC needs your expensive fleet of leased aircraft for that their efficient fleet of A220, 737, and 787 can’t do themselves. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the c suite would rather buy Trz and put that pony out to pasture then spend another decade playing wack-a-mole with a taxpayer backed Transat. I still think this deal happens but don’t delude yourself that Transat is poised to come rip roaring back. Don’t forget TS was circling the drain long before covid hit, they were the only major airline that managed to continually lose money during one of the biggest upswings in aviation history.
This deal won’t happen. And no, AC will never be as efficient as transat on leisure with their aircraft configuration in mainline. But that doesn’t mean they need transat either. As for transat, they were on track for one of their best years in 2020 before the pandemic hit. Fleet was a big problem in the winter season, now they were gonna turn a profit for the first time in a decade in the winter season.

Anyway, we’ll see how this plays out, only thing I’m sure of is that deal is dead. And hey, btw, if you really think TS will fail and is crap, why don’t you short the stock with all the money you can? You’ll be rich 😉
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by LittleNelly »

columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:53 pm
This deal won’t happen. And no, AC will never be as efficient as transat on leisure with their aircraft configuration in mainline. But that doesn’t mean they need transat either. As for transat, they were on track for one of their best years in 2020 before the pandemic hit. Fleet was a big problem in the winter season, now they were gonna turn a profit for the first time in a decade in the winter season.

Anyway, we’ll see how this plays out, only thing I’m sure of is that deal is dead. And hey, btw, if you really think TS will fail and is crap, why don’t you short the stock with all the money you can? You’ll be rich 😉

Q1 2020 ending Jan 31st showed a net loss of $32 million so it did not look like a profitable winter season. Nor can it be blamed on Covid. The facts are Transat has consistently found a way to loose money during the most profitable decade in history for everyone else.

As for vacation and VFR, all analysis points to domestic before international a segment Transat also lacks. Either way the VFR market in Canada and to the US, Asia, and Latin America dwarf the VFR market to Europe
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Sharklasers
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by Sharklasers »

columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:53 pm
Sharklasers wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 2:26 pm
columbia wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:46 pm

Every company will shrink for a while. AC’s ex ceo CR said in an interview yesterday leisure travel and visiting family and friends will rebound strong and the demand huge.


Yeah, that’s definitely what he’s said.......
“I think that you’re going to see, after this pandemic is adequately out of the way, you will see some pent-up demand coming back for leisure, for people going to concerts and seeing things like that, that will happen and there will be price stimulation,”

As for Transats ‘perfect fleet’ there isn’t anything AC needs your expensive fleet of leased aircraft for that their efficient fleet of A220, 737, and 787 can’t do themselves. I’ve resigned myself to the fact that the c suite would rather buy Trz and put that pony out to pasture then spend another decade playing wack-a-mole with a taxpayer backed Transat. I still think this deal happens but don’t delude yourself that Transat is poised to come rip roaring back. Don’t forget TS was circling the drain long before covid hit, they were the only major airline that managed to continually lose money during one of the biggest upswings in aviation history.
This deal won’t happen. And no, AC will never be as efficient as transat on leisure with their aircraft configuration in mainline. But that doesn’t mean they need transat either. As for transat, they were on track for one of their best years in 2020 before the pandemic hit. Fleet was a big problem in the winter season, now they were gonna turn a profit for the first time in a decade in the winter season.

Anyway, we’ll see how this plays out, only thing I’m sure of is that deal is dead. And hey, btw, if you really think TS will fail and is crap, why don’t you short the stock with all the money you can? You’ll be rich 😉

Why would I short the stock if I just said I’m 95% certain that your about to get the AC job most of your guys always wanted. I wish I had your optimism about the deal falling apart.

Transat stock will be worth about $9 a share with the swap in a couple months.
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montado
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by montado »

Each day the government maintains ridiculous restrictions is another day transat is worth less. If the deal happens, my bet is AC will leverage the losses transat will continue to take through 2021. 5 bucks a share is starting to look pretty expensive for a company that will have very little revenue this year. I don’t think the government will let “a” deal fail, however my guess is “the” deal as it was is no more. The good news for transat pilots is it should not matter what the deal is, any deal is a great deal for the pilots there.
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by fish4life »

Does anyone know if Transat’s losses could be carried forward to AC for tax purposes going forward? If so it might be worth more than the purchase price for that alone.
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by tsgas »

fish4life wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:43 pm Does anyone know if Transat’s losses could be carried forward to AC for tax purposes going forward? If so it might be worth more than the purchase price for that alone.
AC will have plenty of losses of it's own. It needs to stop the bleeding of cash, real soon.
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columbia
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by columbia »

tsgas wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:19 pm
fish4life wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 5:43 pm Does anyone know if Transat’s losses could be carried forward to AC for tax purposes going forward? If so it might be worth more than the purchase price for that alone.
AC will have plenty of losses of it's own. It needs to stop the bleeding of cash, real soon.
Yup. Not a good time to buy another bleeding airline at all. Only scenario I could see, not very probable, is a deal with the gvnmt to buy in exchange a money. That industry doesn’t need a merger, it needs a fu**n bailout.
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JoeyBarton
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by JoeyBarton »

columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm
tom wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:16 pm I guess no deal then.
Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
Are you a TS pilot yourself Columbia? Very unusual to see a TS guy being almost sure the deal is dead. Haven't heard FL320 or GATRKGA in a while on here. Care to share your thoughts?
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Cappo1
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by Cappo1 »

JoeyBarton wrote: Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:24 pm
columbia wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 7:18 pm
tom wrote: Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:16 pm I guess no deal then.
Yup. That deal is dead 95% sure, matter of time before an announcement is made to the public .
Are you a TS pilot yourself Columbia? Very unusual to see a TS guy being almost sure the deal is dead. Haven't heard FL320 or GATRKGA in a while on here. Care to share your thoughts?
Fl320 has several personas
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Re: Transat revenues drop by 99%, with 2,000 layoffs expected

Post by GATRKGA »

Everyone has a version they want this to go. I prefer to stay separate, as I think AC has an interesting road to recovery as is because of the 60% business diversity the company is vested in. The pilot group seems more bitter than ever, I can’t imagine those conversations being pleasant in the flight deck with the @#$! show going on with ACPA. Pretty sure every guy junior guy will vote alpa just out of spite.

My opinion?

Bailout before April 19
Transat acquired by AC.
Alpa representation vote wins after the merger
Alpa in house at jazz and ac
Common employer by 2025
Jazz DOH merger and buyout of senior guys to protect widebody captains at AC
Flat pay removed at AC because ts CUMULATIVE years salary is superior the first 7 years. Win for Junior Ac pilots considering about 50% of positions are less than 6 years in at TS? Take the 50% on in the junior ranks, and remove flat pay? Not bad right? Ts pilots win with other segments of ac ca where ts stands to gain. At the expense of the loss in lifestyle that you had at ts. Win some lose some. I don’t think ac pilots will ever truly understand how lucrative the lifestyle was at ts. Yes even at expense of not making 300k as a year 12 guy. Settle for 260 and work 350 hours a year? With the majority layover being 48-72 hrs in those ranks? Pretty sweet.


My reason for the transaction happening?

1. Ac would have already walked away, so there clearly exists something they want out of the deal. And it’s not From the Eu side. It’s bailout related and something along the lines of having the government fund enough to pay for the transaction “to preserve Quebec jobs” québécois victim story 101 being saved by the great Trudeau! Then baam, election?
2. You don’t want ts/wj to dominate transatlantic market while your 767’s are busy doing lucrative cargo. Do you really want to give that market to wj/ts after fighting tooth and nail for it since 2010? Do you really reconvert the profitable 67’s doing cargo back to passenger just to kill transat, do we really want to go down that failure of a road again? May as well own the airline and the balance sheet that goes with it. Ts still has a cash surplus which is why they can finance the secured loans. Doesn’t mean it has to be used. Even if 500m is used, they have a cash surplus. AC still walks away a winner. Don’t forget something, Canadian banks do not arbitrarily just finance a “failing” airline out of the kindness of their heart. There exists merit and many plan b’s and c’s to leverage a company like transat with a secured loan product. For instance, let’s not forget a stock financing or convertible debentures available to them if shit gets real. It hasn’t and it won’t. Why? If the ts transaction goes through, you have $7 something equivalent price point? Very easy to finance a $5 equivalent (~$15 dilutive Ac shares) if needed.
3. The collective ac/ts group comes out stronger post 2024 than they would separate.
4. Decide how many active ac and ts pilots during merger. Merge doh. Recall all laid off AC guys first, get everyone a bonus while laid off ts guys wait for recall, doh where practical, and grandfathering everywhere else. It doesn’t have to be that hard.

Flame on. I’ll be back in a few months and will enjoy the show with popcorn from the sidelines.

Good luck to all!
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