Short term and long term outlook?

[FallingUp]

At the beginning of the pandemic the aviation industry was unsure of where we would be in a year to five years.

We are now one year down and vaccines are happening. On the other hand, we now have new variants and some provinces are back into lock down. It does not paint an optimistic future short term. In the US they are now very concerned with the Brazilian variant and Europe is also having a hell of a time with rising case counts. The government has not lifted travel restrictions either.

I am still of the camp that the aviation industry will bounce back within the next 3 years but will never look the same.

People are spending all their money on possessions now and taking on loads of consumer debt. Campers, recreational vehicles, hot tubs, cabins, renos, additions, etc. Businesses have adapted to not being able to travel. There will always be a need for business travel but I don't believe it will be as busy as it was.

What are your thoughts? Are you still hoping with the vaccine rollout things will progress quickly and the industry will come roaring back? Or, have you already pivoted to another career and will jump back into aviation when the time is right?

PS: For what it's worth, long time lurker (10+ years), first time poster.

[scdriver]

At the beginning of the pandemic the aviation industry was unsure of where we would be in a year to five years.

We are now one year down and vaccines are happening. On the other hand, we now have new variants and some provinces are back into lock down. It does not paint an optimistic future short term. In the US they are now very concerned with the Brazilian variant and Europe is also having a hell of a time with rising case counts. The government has not lifted travel restrictions either.

I am still of the camp that the aviation industry will bounce back within the next 3 years but will never look the same.

People are spending all their money on possessions now and taking on loads of consumer debt. Campers, recreational vehicles, hot tubs, cabins, renos, additions, etc. Businesses have adapted to not being able to travel. There will always be a need for business travel but I don't believe it will be as busy as it was.

What are your thoughts? Are you still hoping with the vaccine rollout things will progress quickly and the industry will come roaring back? Or, have you already pivoted to another career and will jump back into aviation when the time is right?

PS: For what it's worth, long time lurker (10+ years), first time poster.

I think the industry will come back strong within the next 2-3 years. Vaccinations though slow right now, will result in this god damn virus being not a big deal in daily life and people will be chomping at the bit to travel as soon as able. Just look at the states right now, United is planning to hire 300 drivers. Yes business travel will likely not be as prevalent but I really think leisure travel will pick up the slack.