The next PML wave

[xlwing]

So considering AC targeted Jazz's higher paid staff with retirement incentives and a PML in hopes of cost reductions, would it not be likely for AC to start looking at the Georgian, EVAS, and Sky Regional roster for a second PML? A buddy of mine at Georgian said AC is organising a meeting in the coming month with the GGN pilots concerning a formal PML agreement. I believe they have a new out-of-the-blue contract negotiation on the table as well. Could there be another wave of planned movement coming?

[ZBBYLW]

The thing with jazz is there were some really well payed guys at the top of the pay scale... not sure the same issue exists at the other feeders.

[tdp19]

Guaranteed GGN management went bitching to AC saying that they can't retain their pilots and that they need to sweeten the pot. Don't really see the use of implementing a new PML list with 80% coming from Jazz, and seeing how the last few AC groundschools have had a bunch of SKV, GGN pilots anyways.

[Stinky]

I'm not so sure it would just be a matter of GGN bitching. It's mutually beneficial to have a low turnover so AC would be just as interested in making this happen.

[Oxi]

I am sure GGN pilots would keep the same pay and move over to AC.

[leftoftrack]

The GGN pilots voted against the CRJ it was forced down there throats

[xlwing]

So sounds like Georgian is having the PML "take effect soon based on seniority"? Wonder if this is on top of the Jazz movement or if it's gonna occur after the original Jazz list is exhausted? How far in is the Jazz PML?

[airworthyb]

So sounds like Georgian is having the PML "take effect soon based on seniority"? Wonder if this is on top of the Jazz movement or if it's gonna occur after the original Jazz list is exhausted? How far in is the Jazz PML?

3 guys from georgian have gone to AC through the PML so far, others have course dates and i heard that 6 have been called for interviews.

[BingBong]

The GGN pilots voted against the CRJ it was forced down there throats

Not to high jack the thread but the pilots still put their hands up to take the pay cut and fly the jet.

[BingBong]

I am sure GGN pilots would keep the same pay and move over to AC.

Why would they keep the low pay. There is no way AC starting pay is lower than GGN

[flying4dollars]

I am sure GGN pilots would keep the same pay and move over to AC.

Why would they keep the low pay. There is no way AC starting pay is lower than GGN

Obviously not for fo's. But I believe AC starting pay is roughly the same pay as 1st year 1900 captains at Georgian and right now all the Georgian pilots moving to AC are captains on year 2 or higher pay scales. So not much of a pay discrepancy when making the jump.

[tipsails]

The thing with jazz is there were some really well payed guys at the top of the pay scale... not sure the same issue exists at the other feeders.

Some of which chose to not sign the list... Go figure.

[dream chaser]

What incentive was there for the senior guys to go over to AC? Not much from where I sit. Good thing for Air Canada that there was a large number of middle of the pack guys who would still have a lengthy enough career at AC to make it worth their while. It was a genius plan devised by a genius business man. He solved two problems with one solution. Reduce the costs of the feed (especially knowing that they're going to need to increase this feed dramatically in the future) and fill their growing demand for experienced pilots. And after he's done siphoning away the Jazz experience, he'll move on to the remaining Express carriers. I'm just curious to see if his plan will ultimately transform the Canadian regional market into a carbon copy of our US counterparts. For those not in the know, I'll break it down for you.

Major airlines put out the flying for the regionals to bid on.
Regionals undercut each other to try and make their money on volume. (Walmartization of Aviation)
Regional gets contract.
Regional needs more pilots to fulfill contract.
Regional can't attract pilots at their ridiculously low rates. (Republic starts at $22/flight hour)
Regional airline cancels flights due to no crews. (Republic is cancelling 3000 flights per month)
Regional airline realizes they can't pay more to attract and keep their pilots because their margins are too thin.
Regional airline files for bankruptcy and loses contract.

Root cause of the problem: Major airlines causing bidding war and Regional airlines not working together to prevent race to the bottom. Sound familiar?

[Stinky]

Regional can't attract pilots at their ridiculously low rates. (Republic starts at $22/flight hour)
Regional airline cancels flights due to no crews. (Republic is cancelling 3000 flights per month)
Regional airline realizes they can't pay more to attract and keep their pilots because their margins are too thin.
Regional airline files for bankruptcy and loses contract.

Or wages go up....

Republic now at $40 an hour in the first year, others are seeing similar increases.

[No Quarter]

What is PML?

[Bajan Pilot]

Pilot Migration List...I think.

[mbav8r]

Close, Pilot Mobility List.

[rudder]

Regional can't attract pilots at their ridiculously low rates. (Republic starts at $22/flight hour)
Regional airline cancels flights due to no crews. (Republic is cancelling 3000 flights per month)
Regional airline realizes they can't pay more to attract and keep their pilots because their margins are too thin.
Regional airline files for bankruptcy and loses contract.

Or wages go up....

Republic now at $40 an hour in the first year, others are seeing similar increases.

Wages can and will go up. But this is a supply side problem.

The cost of entry now for a bare commercial pilot w/multi/IFR is approximately $50,000. If you add a college diploma or associate degree you are $100K+.

Who in their right mind invests $100K+ for entry level wages of $20-40K? And in a system where there is no credit for tenure if you switch employers?

There are not nearly enough prospective pilots entering the training system to meet the projected attrition levels at the airlines. And then there is growth....

First to feel the effect of the shortage will be tier III carriers who can neither attract nor retain pilots. Next affected will be tier II carriers who will watch significant attrition rates to AC/WJ and other career oriented airlines with much higher earnings potential.

If nothing changes in terms of supply side management in the near term then the medium term impact will be a contraction in services offered at the tier II and tier III levels with work repatriated to the major via larger gauge equipment with lower frequency (this is already manifesting itself in the US).

Everybody can see what is coming. The question is who is best prepared for the reality of the demographic shift as the boomers exit the cockpits and the interest of the millennials in an aviation career wains due to unappealing entry level compensation. Air carriers will have to either decide to make the capital investment themselves via ab initio programs or acknowledge that individuals that spent $50-100K in training and education will have to be paid more on day 1. You would never see a doctor or nurse or lawyer or accountant justify apprentice level compensation after receiving their full professional accreditation. This only happens in the airline industry and it must stop.

[Old fella]

To add to Mr. Rudder's valuable insight, it should be noted that for the first time in our (Canada) history there are more 65 and over yr olds than 14 yr olds and younger. Those 14 yr olds are the future and many other career aspiring groups(law, medical , trades et al) will be in competition for that sparse age group. Glorification of the aviation flying career will wain big time as a result of supply/demand at the current remuneration levels, which in my view is a good thing as it will force airlines to anti up wage levels. I have been around a long time and have never seen an industry called aviation in one particular sector(flying) continue with a very low wage structure with an ongoing basis. I hope there is a very rude awakening at some point.

[fish4life]

You are seeing it in the US already, look around at every contract in the last 2 years. Average pay raises are 20-30%