The Air Canada OTS thread

[derateNO]

I've also heard nothing about freezing hiring in the near future....or any reductions on the max for that matter.

Murray said to a group after the road show last week that unless the Max is not back by the end of the summer that there will not be any reductions. He said very bluntly that if he starts reducing positions, the timeline for getting all aircraft crewed the return to service would increase to 2.5 years from the 1 year that is the current projection.

Bid 20-01 will be the first Tuesday of April.

Even with the alarmism in the media about the corona virus, the new duty regs in the Winter require more pilots than are currently on property by a large margin. Wouldn't be hopeful for a profit share cheque next April, but other than that I'd say it's biz as usual.

Honestly if things get that bad to the point where we don't get profit share, I think most of us would say we're happy to have a job. Because that means the economy will likely take a big hit, and many industries as well. I'll take a paycheck even if it's small if it weathers the storm.

[rudder]

The adjustments to fleet and schedule due to the Max grounding delay and the travel slowdown should allow AC to get ahead of the curve on pilot staffing with the new flight and duty time rules on the horizon. Having said that, overstaffing comes with a cost.

AC was never going to hire 900 pilots in 2020. Now I could see the number at closer to 400-500. All this means is that 2021 hiring will be higher than originally expected, assuming that bookings and travel patterns stabilize.

Addition of TRZ capacity and staff during a declining travel environment will also have a significant impact on the integrated commercial schedule and volume of AC resources required. AC will have to make decisions about disposition of airframes that are on expiring leases without replacement.

[DHC-1 Jockey]

A friend of mine who started at AC in the past few months has a friend whose groundschool offer for an end of April is postponed. I would hate to be in their position if you have already left your current company and are now technically unemployed until your AC groundschool starts.

[Inverted2]

Resigning now for a job that starts in 6 weeks isn’t really a bright idea.

[derateNO]

Resigning now for a job that starts in 6 weeks isn’t really a bright idea.

Unless you have been worked to the bone for the last decade and wanted to go away for 6 weeks.

But yes, probably not the smartest given the current circumstances.

[rudder]

Looks like the other shoe is going to drop tomorrow.

Watch for pre-trading announcement.

[derateNO]

Looks like the other shoe is going to drop tomorrow.

Watch for pre-trading announcement.

What makes you say that?

Futures are down big time right now, time to get greedy.

[pilotbzh]

Delays with Ground school has to do with sims availability and coming restrictions on travelling, pilots are scattered around the globe for training and they want to cut that, but not enough sims in Canada

[derateNO]

That actually makes sense.

We use sims all over Europe the USA and Middle East. With this being a global problem, I imagine sending crews to other countries for training isn't something they want to do. Especially after already seeing a few people get quarantined in UAE.

[rudder]

One Express carrier has cancelled new-hire groundschools (despite having ads out for DEC and FO vacancies as recently as last week).

Another Express carrier is late issuing pairing information for April (presumably since final April schedule information from AC is delayed).

Common thread would be pending schedule changes/reductions in flying levels. Express does not fly overseas (unless you count the Great Lakes) so it would appear that the North American schedule is being reviewed.

One can easily conclude that AC has looked at bookings for Q2/Q3 and don’t like what they see. The only question now is how large the capacity reductions and for how long.

[Squid]

Agreed rudder. Bookings are ugly looking and yup the markets are ugly today. Sounds like the gov might relax the implementation of the gazette 2 a bit as well which will help take the pressure off

[JoeyBarton]

Rudder so where is that great announcement you were talking about?

[Squid]

Think he was referring to the markets

[Transition9er2]

Didn’t a new class start today?

Any idea on size?

T.

[parallel60]

38ish for Mar 09 course.

[ToolShed]

Agreed rudder. Bookings are ugly looking and yup the markets are ugly today. Sounds like the gov might relax the implementation of the gazette 2 a bit as well which will help take the pressure off

It will get implemented.

[rudder]

Rudder so where is that great announcement you were talking about?

Take your pick.

Is it the stock market collapse? AC market cap now down 45% from peak.

Is it the public capacity reduction numbers from the largest US carriers? Several reducing international capacity by 20-30%. Domestic capacity by 10-20%. Do you think that AC is immune to the dramatic drop off in bookings?

Is it the fact that several countries are effectively closed by quarantine?

AC has already advised Express carriers of imminent capacity reductions. That means more capacity reductions are coming at AC, just not publicly announced. Personally, I think that an announcement might actually help the share price as right sizing capacity to reflect demand plus the large near term fuel price reductions will significantly mitigate the otherwise negative impact on the bottom line.

Like most, I hope that all of this will be in our rear view mirror by the late summer and we can all return to our otherwise hectic pace. But for now it will be a challenging time with the term “force majeure” possibly being invoked.

[cloak]

Yes indeed, I heard from a very reliable source, a friend's cousin whose mechanic's kid goes to the school with the friend of one of the neighbor's of one the guys that has friends in recruitment, that not only hiring will stop, but they will also park all airplanes and furlough everyone except the top 50 people just in case they need an urgent flight. Also, my second cousin's garbage man who is friends with the neighbor of someone in health department's dentist who says the outbreak is well passed the pandemic and everyone is lying about the count and for the fear of virus already being in their homes, everyone should burn their homes and head for the hills, except to stop on the way at Costco and pick up some canned food, matches and toilet paper, definitely more toilet papers....Goodness gracious!!!

[rudder]

Yes indeed, I heard from a very reliable source, a friend's cousin whose mechanic's kid goes to the school with the friend of one of the neighbor's of one the guys that has friends in recruitment, that not only hiring will stop, but they will also park all airplanes and furlough everyone except the top 50 people just in case they need an urgent flight. Also, my second cousin's garbage man who is friends with the neighbor of someone in health department's dentist who says the outbreak is well passed the pandemic and everyone is lying about the count and for the fear of virus already being in their homes, everyone should burn their homes and head for the hills, except to stop on the way at Costco and pick up some canned food, matches and toilet paper, definitely more toilet papers....Goodness gracious!!!

Have you seen the AC share price today? On paper, AC is worth less than 50% of what is was worth 3 months ago. Do you think that shareholders are happy? Do you think that institutional investors are happy?

AC will have to publicly announce a comprehensive plan to manage the COVID impact on travel and bookings so as to mitigate the inevitable losses that will occur as revenue drops but fixed costs remain.

Just take a look at the PR that has been forthcoming from the US legacy carriers. AC is similarly exposed, and perhaps worse off, as a major global international carrier.

A Donald Trump type response to what is actually happening will not suffice. Airlines will act or will burn though cash at a nightmare rate.

[Old fella]

Rudder, I have plenty respect for your insider knowledge/views on things airline and yes, choppy water and turbulent air is ahead. However I am going to give a leg up to science, they will figure out the situation on the latest pet virus. They always find out what works and discard what doesn’t , been doing that a very long time. I am getting close to three quarters of a century on this earth and survived the polio,TB , measles et al from the ‘50s as a kid, vaccine/inoculation saved the day for me. Once there is a stand down on boogeyman virus and there will be,look out then as your airline will be called upon to handle the pent up demand probably need all the ‘37 MAX that are currently parked. I bet that Boeing issue will be resolved in the very near future as well. Just my usual two bits commentary .