The Air Canada OTS thread

Discuss topics relating to Air Canada.

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your flight time ?

500+ PIC JET
37
4%
500+ PIC JET 2 CREW
101
10%
500+ PIC TURBOPROP 2 CREW
154
16%
1000+ F/O JET/TURBOPROP 2 CREW
160
17%
Total Time 1500/2000
50
5%
2000/3000
106
11%
3000/ More
361
37%
 
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RRJetPilot
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by RRJetPilot »

Ash Ketchum wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?
Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by Ash Ketchum »

RRJetPilot wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:20 am
Ash Ketchum wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?
Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.
Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.
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goldeneagle
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by goldeneagle »

Ash Ketchum wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:29 am Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.
Lucky you. I think for the next few months, midway up the list at Jazz will be a much cozier place than BOTL at AC once talk of layoffs starts to get more serious.
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derateNO
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by derateNO »

AC isn't going to be laying anyone off.

Mark my words, they will try to get senior pilots to take ERP packages long before they start laying off the cheapest pilots they have on staff.
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CFM Symphony
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by CFM Symphony »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am
CFM Symphony wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:24 am Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...
Why are you being a jerk?

I was having a reasoned discussion, exchanging points of view and you resort to name calling and insults. Grow up.

Despite being the outbreak centres, China and Italy aren't the only regions affected by the slowdown.

Leisure and non-essential travel bookings are among the hardest hit, proportionally that's a larger part of Westjet's flying than Air Canada's as Westjet are actually the market share leader by slight amount into sun destinations, and with a smaller amount of flying that's a proportionately larger part of their business.

Does AC stand to potentially lose more as an amount of total revenue? Yes. But they have quadruple the revenues of Westjet, and from a broader stream. My position is that the loss could potentially be lower as a percentage of total revenues.
Since we can’t go with Canadian figures now that WJ is private, let’s estimate the impact on the US market. I did the hard work and used Delta, United and AA to represent the full service global carriers and SouthWest, Spirit and JetBlue to approximate carriers with a more local and leisure based exposure. Yes there are differences, but these are by far the best groupings of airlines I can think of to correlate with AC and WestJet due to market proximity.

I did some back of the envelope math. For the full-service carriers, the market cap weighted average stock price decline over the last 30 days was 49.22% with all 3 carriers close to the mean (ie no evidence of either being an outlier). AC is down a comparable 56.15% over the same period. The lower cost carriers meanwhile scored a weighted average loss of 26.69% loss in value over the same period (admittedly the variance was a lot higher. Southwest only lost 16% whereas Spirit lost 68%)

I think you and I agree on 3 things. 1) this will be short lived. 2) AC will lose more on a dollar basis (though I also believe on a % basis too). 3) I am a jerk (and am very aware that my sarcastic jerkiness takes away from my already questionable credibility).

Don’t take me too seriously.

PS I retired - right before this virus hit us all in the face -from a long and indistinguishable career as a contract pilot. I have no dog in this fight.
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iflyroads
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by iflyroads »

Ash Ketchum wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?
Haven't heard of offers going out for April. If it does, heard it will be the last gs for a while unless this covid-19 blows over
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Ash Ketchum
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by Ash Ketchum »

iflyroads wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:12 pm
Ash Ketchum wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:58 am Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?
Haven't heard of offers going out for April. If it does, heard it will be the last gs for a while unless this covid-19 blows over
Thanks for the update.
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cloak
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by cloak »

rudder wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:56 am
cloak wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:10 am Yes indeed, I heard from a very reliable source, a friend's cousin whose mechanic's kid goes to the school with the friend of one of the neighbor's of one the guys that has friends in recruitment, that not only hiring will stop, but they will also park all airplanes and furlough everyone except the top 50 people just in case they need an urgent flight. Also, my second cousin's garbage man who is friends with the neighbor of someone in health department's dentist who says the outbreak is well passed the pandemic and everyone is lying about the count and for the fear of virus already being in their homes, everyone should burn their homes and head for the hills, except to stop on the way at Costco and pick up some canned food, matches and toilet paper, definitely more toilet papers....Goodness gracious!!!
Have you seen the AC share price today? On paper, AC is worth less than 50% of what is was worth 3 months ago. Do you think that shareholders are happy? Do you think that institutional investors are happy?

AC will have to publicly announce a comprehensive plan to manage the COVID impact on travel and bookings so as to mitigate the inevitable losses that will occur as revenue drops but fixed costs remain.

Just take a look at the PR that has been forthcoming from the US legacy carriers. AC is similarly exposed, and perhaps worse off, as a major global international carrier.

A Donald Trump type response to what is actually happening will not suffice. Airlines will act or will burn though cash at a nightmare rate.
Yes I have seen the market and been in the industry for a very long time. Share prices go up and they go down, which in itself is a folly of the market and the insatiable greed of the uninitiated that can easily affect the market on the internet, however, share prices alone hardly represent exactly the value of a company at any given time.

Your comments are reminiscent of ghost stories some tell around camp fires to scare the children. It makes one feel cool and all knowing, but in reality scares the kids for no good reason and has a lasting effect on their outlook toward life. Quit trying to scare people and do something productive with your time!

Perspective is always so important in life and here's an analogy to build some perspective. During the tenure of Obama the H1N1 virus broke out and infected over 60 million people and killed over 12000 people in U.S alone, many more in the world, yet it took Obama 6 months to declare a national emergency. Likely that was one of the reasons so many got infected and died. Everything went on, no events were cancelled, nothing. Even this year, research the number of regular flu infections and dead in the U.S alone. Speak to the facts, don't sensationalize like CNN!

What everyone must consider is that fear is the real culprit in the downfall of a generation. Pilot or not, in aviation or not, don't be driven to isolation and hoarding by fear; don't forget to be a human. Diseases come and go, but the human spirit will always prevail. In challenges and struggles lie opportunities for real growth. And the future belongs to those who give the next generation reasons to hope!
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rudder
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by rudder »

Hope is not a plan. An empirical analysis of current impact (passenger loads/bookings/cancelations) is self evident of the requirement to mitigate.

Airlines are looking at potentially massive cash burn rates as revenues decline. Like it or not, they must respond.

As I said, I hope this event is short lived. But sitting on their hands is not in the cards for any carrier that wants to be in a financially healthy position out the backside of the crisis.
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by tsgarp »

Guys,

COVID19 will burn out quickly (a few more months). However, the impact that it has had on the economy will be long lasting. The stock market has tanked, people are scared and not spending money on anything they don't have to. In short, it is 9-11 all over again. The only mitigating factor is the number of retirements coming up. There may not be lay-offs, but the mass hiring is done.
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cloak
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by cloak »

Presumably individuals that frequent this board are not all aviation type, and presumably again some are very young, which is great. I just hope they are not driven to fear by the reflections of perturbed minds and half truths that they might read here, and they don't accept them as general consensus of aviation industry. Hopefully their "plans", in any challenge, are inspired by hope, optimism and humanity and the knowledge that one ultimately attracts the very things one thinks and does.
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by ayseven »

Mr Cloak is absolutely right. Is it fun? No. Should it direct the rest of your life in a negative spiral? Absolutely NOT!
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by sanjet »

derateNO wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 pm AC isn't going to be laying anyone off.

Mark my words, they will try to get senior pilots to take ERP packages long before they start laying off the cheapest pilots they have on staff.
Delta is cutting 40% capacity i think we are headed for layoffs
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timeflies
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by timeflies »

sanjet wrote: Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:26 pm
derateNO wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 pm AC isn't going to be laying anyone off.

Mark my words, they will try to get senior pilots to take ERP packages long before they start laying off the cheapest pilots they have on staff.
Delta is cutting 40% capacity i think we are headed for layoffs
Delta CEO forgoing his yearly salary to avoid layoffs because of net negative bookings. This is exactly the kind of action these well compensated CEOs around the world need to take. Kudos to you Ed Bastian.

Wheres is Calin hiding? He will have to speak at some point.
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Dry Guy
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by Dry Guy »

His base salary. Almost everything these guys make is in bonuses.
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by TSAM »

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Last edited by TSAM on Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
dialdriver
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by dialdriver »

What can I do about my sense of entitlement?
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altiplano
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Re: Re:

Post by altiplano »

CFM Symphony wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:36 am
tca wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:16 am
CFM Symphony wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:11 pm Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.
I don't think you quite understand the concept of diversification.
Hehe, of course I don’t as long as understanding what is a fairly commonsensical economic strategy goes against your narrative. :goodman:
2 days later... I wonder if your opinions on diversification are any different? How's that "commonsensical economic strategy" and "limited exposure" holding up?

Crazy times.

An internal memo sent to union officials and obtained by The Canadian Press says that travellers are rebooking en masse and "our airline's well-being has become grave overnight."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ ... -1.5497037
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NG737
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by NG737 »

Hey guys and gals
Not sure if I am in the correct thread, have an interview with AC next week, wondering if anyone here can throw some tips on it, what kind of questions, how long is the interview?, any technical stuff? are they all" tell me about a time" type questions etc, etc.

Any help / advice is greatly appreciate my fellow countrymen/ women :)

Thanks.
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Re: The Air Canada OTS thread

Post by Blackdog0301 »

NG737 wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:21 am Hey guys and gals
Not sure if I am in the correct thread, have an interview with AC next week...
Doubt it
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