The Air Canada OTS thread

[CFM Symphony]

Why does everyone keep comparing us to WJ.

They're not just not on the same level, they're in a building across the street

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

I disagree. I'd say more diversified.

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

[altiplano]

Put your egotism aside for just a sec there skippy. AC is significantly more exposed to a global downturn and the shutting down of whole countries’ airspaces than those people in the building across the street.

I disagree. I'd say more diversified.

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

Do you think Italy, China, EU are the only markets taking a significant hit? That any operator is insulated? I'm not so sure that's the case.

I think it's clear the fear is spread across more markets.

Vacation and discretionary travel in all markets, particularly cruise ships, resorts, Florida, Disney, etc. are hollowing out... proportionally that makes up a very large part of some airlines' markets this time of year.

New service launching in 6 weeks to Rome? I wonder how those bookings are doing?

All that said... I believe this will wash over in the spring.

[CFM Symphony]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

[Alt50]

Cancelled flights in April so far.

YYC-NRT

YVR-PEK
YVR-PVG

YYZ-PEK
YYZ-PVG
YYZ-ICN
YYZ-HKG
YYZ-MXP
YYZ-FCO

YUL-PVG
YUL-FCO

Probably going to grow quick.

[iflyroads]

39 candidates in the latest gs

4 777 Fo
10 787 Fo
1 767 Fo
2 L767 Fo
4 330 Fo
8 319 Fo
6 220 fo
4 EMB fo

[tca]

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

I don't think you quite understand the concept of diversification.

[CFM Symphony]

Diverse compared to an operator that barely touches any of the heavily affected regions? I don’t see your logic. If WestJet’s sole order of business was flying to China or Italy etc., then yes diversity would be a relative asset for AC. As it stands however, that’s not the case. Furthermore, with the freshly announced suspension of EU/US flying, ACs route network and reliance on shipping people between those states via Canadian hubs will take a major beating, where WJ has limited exposure.

I don't think you quite understand the concept of diversification.

Hehe, of course I don’t as long as understanding what is a fairly commonsensical economic strategy goes against your narrative.

[derateNO]

39 candidates in the latest gs

4 777 Fo
10 787 Fo
1 767 Fo
2 L767 Fo
4 330 Fo
8 319 Fo
6 220 fo
4 EMB fo

Holy smokes 20 WB FOs.

Fucking AC.

Pay us properly and you wouldn't need to put new hires in these jobs.

[Ash Ketchum]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

[altiplano]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

Why are you being a jerk?

I was having a reasoned discussion, exchanging points of view and you resort to name calling and insults. Grow up.

Despite being the outbreak centres, China and Italy aren't the only regions affected by the slowdown.

Leisure and non-essential travel bookings are among the hardest hit, proportionally that's a larger part of Westjet's flying than Air Canada's as Westjet are actually the market share leader by slight amount into sun destinations, and with a smaller amount of flying that's a proportionately larger part of their business.

Does AC stand to potentially lose more as an amount of total revenue? Yes. But they have quadruple the revenues of Westjet, and from a broader stream. My position is that the loss could potentially be lower as a percentage of total revenues.

[RRJetPilot]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.

[Ash Ketchum]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Hiring freeze is not imminent. Its happened. The only reason the march GS are going ahead is the guys for the most part quit their old jobs. Good on AC for keeping them.

Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.

[goldeneagle]

Thanks for the update. Some people from the class before me at Jazz got called for March ground schools at AC. I thought I would be in line for the April one. Funny how life works out sometimes.

Lucky you. I think for the next few months, midway up the list at Jazz will be a much cozier place than BOTL at AC once talk of layoffs starts to get more serious.

[derateNO]

AC isn't going to be laying anyone off.

Mark my words, they will try to get senior pilots to take ERP packages long before they start laying off the cheapest pilots they have on staff.

[CFM Symphony]

Yes turkey, everyone is affected. It’s just a matter of some being more exposed than others. Cancelling one destination such as Rome hardly compares to cancelling all flying to China and Italy. The leisure travel you blabber on about is an exposure for both WJ and Rouge. But the global traffic slowdown hits AC a lot harder than WJ because (I cant believe I’m having to explain this...) AC actually flies all over the world including the affected areas. Moving on...

Why are you being a jerk?

I was having a reasoned discussion, exchanging points of view and you resort to name calling and insults. Grow up.

Despite being the outbreak centres, China and Italy aren't the only regions affected by the slowdown.

Leisure and non-essential travel bookings are among the hardest hit, proportionally that's a larger part of Westjet's flying than Air Canada's as Westjet are actually the market share leader by slight amount into sun destinations, and with a smaller amount of flying that's a proportionately larger part of their business.

Does AC stand to potentially lose more as an amount of total revenue? Yes. But they have quadruple the revenues of Westjet, and from a broader stream. My position is that the loss could potentially be lower as a percentage of total revenues.

Since we can’t go with Canadian figures now that WJ is private, let’s estimate the impact on the US market. I did the hard work and used Delta, United and AA to represent the full service global carriers and SouthWest, Spirit and JetBlue to approximate carriers with a more local and leisure based exposure. Yes there are differences, but these are by far the best groupings of airlines I can think of to correlate with AC and WestJet due to market proximity.

I did some back of the envelope math. For the full-service carriers, the market cap weighted average stock price decline over the last 30 days was 49.22% with all 3 carriers close to the mean (ie no evidence of either being an outlier). AC is down a comparable 56.15% over the same period. The lower cost carriers meanwhile scored a weighted average loss of 26.69% loss in value over the same period (admittedly the variance was a lot higher. Southwest only lost 16% whereas Spirit lost 68%)

I think you and I agree on 3 things. 1) this will be short lived. 2) AC will lose more on a dollar basis (though I also believe on a % basis too). 3) I am a jerk (and am very aware that my sarcastic jerkiness takes away from my already questionable credibility).

Don’t take me too seriously.

PS I retired - right before this virus hit us all in the face -from a long and indistinguishable career as a contract pilot. I have no dog in this fight.

[iflyroads]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Haven't heard of offers going out for April. If it does, heard it will be the last gs for a while unless this covid-19 blows over

[Ash Ketchum]

Does anyone have any insights on if April calls have or will soon be going out or is the hiring freeze imminent?

Haven't heard of offers going out for April. If it does, heard it will be the last gs for a while unless this covid-19 blows over

Thanks for the update.

[cloak]

Yes indeed, I heard from a very reliable source, a friend's cousin whose mechanic's kid goes to the school with the friend of one of the neighbor's of one the guys that has friends in recruitment, that not only hiring will stop, but they will also park all airplanes and furlough everyone except the top 50 people just in case they need an urgent flight. Also, my second cousin's garbage man who is friends with the neighbor of someone in health department's dentist who says the outbreak is well passed the pandemic and everyone is lying about the count and for the fear of virus already being in their homes, everyone should burn their homes and head for the hills, except to stop on the way at Costco and pick up some canned food, matches and toilet paper, definitely more toilet papers....Goodness gracious!!!

Have you seen the AC share price today? On paper, AC is worth less than 50% of what is was worth 3 months ago. Do you think that shareholders are happy? Do you think that institutional investors are happy?

AC will have to publicly announce a comprehensive plan to manage the COVID impact on travel and bookings so as to mitigate the inevitable losses that will occur as revenue drops but fixed costs remain.

Just take a look at the PR that has been forthcoming from the US legacy carriers. AC is similarly exposed, and perhaps worse off, as a major global international carrier.

A Donald Trump type response to what is actually happening will not suffice. Airlines will act or will burn though cash at a nightmare rate.

Yes I have seen the market and been in the industry for a very long time. Share prices go up and they go down, which in itself is a folly of the market and the insatiable greed of the uninitiated that can easily affect the market on the internet, however, share prices alone hardly represent exactly the value of a company at any given time.

Your comments are reminiscent of ghost stories some tell around camp fires to scare the children. It makes one feel cool and all knowing, but in reality scares the kids for no good reason and has a lasting effect on their outlook toward life. Quit trying to scare people and do something productive with your time!

Perspective is always so important in life and here's an analogy to build some perspective. During the tenure of Obama the H1N1 virus broke out and infected over 60 million people and killed over 12000 people in U.S alone, many more in the world, yet it took Obama 6 months to declare a national emergency. Likely that was one of the reasons so many got infected and died. Everything went on, no events were cancelled, nothing. Even this year, research the number of regular flu infections and dead in the U.S alone. Speak to the facts, don't sensationalize like CNN!

What everyone must consider is that fear is the real culprit in the downfall of a generation. Pilot or not, in aviation or not, don't be driven to isolation and hoarding by fear; don't forget to be a human. Diseases come and go, but the human spirit will always prevail. In challenges and struggles lie opportunities for real growth. And the future belongs to those who give the next generation reasons to hope!

[rudder]

Hope is not a plan. An empirical analysis of current impact (passenger loads/bookings/cancelations) is self evident of the requirement to mitigate.

Airlines are looking at potentially massive cash burn rates as revenues decline. Like it or not, they must respond.

As I said, I hope this event is short lived. But sitting on their hands is not in the cards for any carrier that wants to be in a financially healthy position out the backside of the crisis.

[tsgarp]

Guys,

COVID19 will burn out quickly (a few more months). However, the impact that it has had on the economy will be long lasting. The stock market has tanked, people are scared and not spending money on anything they don't have to. In short, it is 9-11 all over again. The only mitigating factor is the number of retirements coming up. There may not be lay-offs, but the mass hiring is done.