Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

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mbav8r
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by mbav8r »

Yes, however it looks like the first Cseries is delivered at the end of 19, what are the expected deliveries of those early 20. I assume there will be growth with the Cseries, or are there further fleet retirements planned?
Edit: I see in one of the articles they will keep the 319s longer planned to bridge the deliveries of the 45 Cseries, also an additional 30 maxes to be delivered.
Given that Canadian pilots are at 50% pay of US pilots and the exchange rate advantage, ACs plan to route Americans through Canadian hubs should equate to further growth, assume no economic meltdown.
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

mbav8r wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:43 am Yes, however it looks like the first Cseries is delivered at the end of 19, what are the expected deliveries of those early 20. I assume there will be growth with the Cseries, or are there further fleet retirements planned?
Edit: I see in one of the articles they will keep the 319s longer planned to bridge the deliveries of the 45 Cseries
As Rudder pointed out anything beyond 2019 hasn’t been released. The road shows indicate 190/319 departures with Cseries arrival. 320 departures with Max arrivals. Overall modest narrow body growth at mainline. Somewhat greater narrow body growth at Rouge beyond 2019.

I think what Stig is saying is that the end of break neck growth appears to be on the horizon. He’s not saying zero growth or even no growth.

Remember AC still needs to hire about 100/year even in a zero growth environment due to retirements.
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dhc#
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by dhc# »

Has "Express" growth also peaked, or is there room for route expansion ?
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mbav8r
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by mbav8r »

dhc# wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 11:06 am Has "Express" growth also peaked, or is there room for route expansion ?
That has been covered about 7 post up, there is room and as I said Jazz plans to hire 300ish pilots in 2018
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altiplano
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by altiplano »

Fanblade wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:14 am ASM’s departed the contractual fix a few years ago. Current scope language limits outsourcing through block hours and a fin count ratio.
Thanks for clarifying Fanblade. All the contract changes the past few years are hard to keep straight sometimes.

What a loss that is. Funnel more seats and bigger aircraft to the tier 2 carriers without limit beyond fin count.
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rudder
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by rudder »

Fanblade wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:16 am
Aircraft upguaging and reduced frequency. A fleet of Q’s and 76 seat jets. As with any scope the 76 number will slowly increase over time within those 90 seat hulls.
On paper there is a draw down to zero on the 37 seaters out in to the 2020-2024 time frame. However, the 26 50 seat props (nearly 30 years old) are still in the plan to 2025 and millions of dollars are being spent by CHR to extend the service life. Odd choice but I assume that cost of ownership is zero and that low cost is passed on to AC via the CPA making them somewhat desireable.

Fate of 50 seat jets beyond 2020 undetermined. Fate of 19 seaters undetermined.

I agree that the CPA level pilot supply problem will ultimately be managed via consolidation and upgauging of Express flying, and repatriation of Express flying to mainline/Rouge.

Current Express pilot population is approximately 2200. With attrition and competition for entry level candidates one could reasonably expect that total population will reduce measurably over the next few years.
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