Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

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dhc#
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Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by dhc# »

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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

No connector downsizing. The Q4 MD&A shows a static fleet for CPA carriers.

It must mean re deployment.
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rudder
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by rudder »

The only AC Express CPA that is available to the public is the one between AC and Chorus Aviation. If you pour over the filings on SEDAR you can see what the adjusted fleet forecast will be out to 2025. Of course, the parties can mutually agree to modify the terms at any time.

Information on the Air Georgian and Skyregional CPA’s with AC does not exist in the public realm. However, given the new RRA provision in the ACPA collective agreement, it seems increasingly obvious that growth in the AC Express fleet at either of these carriers is unlikely particularly due to the long term fleet commitment that AC already has with Chorus (although the 10 CRJ200’s currently operated by Jazz could be transferred to Air Georgian post-2019). It is anybody’s guess whether there are provisions to shrink Air Georgian and/or Skyregional over time. 100% of the Air Georgian and Skyregional jet fleets are sub leased from AC or AC subsidiary companies.
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gtanorth
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by gtanorth »

Old news. This was announced back when Acpa ratified the agreement. I would not read much into it, Jazz has a solid cpa, sky just renewed a 10 year deal announced a few months ago and Georgian just announced a new CPA effective Jan 1 2018. If anything an opportunity for AC to move things Around domestically to fight and upstart ulcc and open new markets in the us with the regional feed.
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dhc#
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by dhc# »

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montado
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by montado »

So the music is about to stop at Jazz? All those new hires going to be stuck on new scale FO pay for years. Probably see the classics and RJs gone and just fly the Q. Why keep the RJ if the C can do it all and do it for cheaper. Plus CHR is in the leasing game so minimal effort to move the RJ anywhere if no flying at Jazz.
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mbav8r
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by mbav8r »

montado wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:13 pm So the music is about to stop at Jazz? All those new hires going to be stuck on new scale FO pay for years. Probably see the classics and RJs gone and just fly the Q. Why keep the RJ if the C can do it all and do it for cheaper. Plus CHR is in the leasing game so minimal effort to move the RJ anywhere if no flying at Jazz.
Where did you get that from??
Jazz has minimum guaranties for flying to 2025, originally 16 705s amended to 21 900s. The 705s have been converted to 900s, just a paperwork exercise. The 10 remaining 200s leave at the end of 2020 but could stay on if there is a need, ie; AC wants them too.
Other than that the hiring plan for 2018 is near 300 again, meaning the music is still blaring away, no idea what the guaranties are at SR or GGN.
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rudder
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by rudder »

There is a fleet plan that exists on the top floor at AC HQ that lays out the next 5 years. Scripted by CR and BS and probably held in a fairly tight circle of confidentiality.

We are just getting glimpses of pieces of that plan. Lots more to come.

It will be interesting to see who is interested in buying first generation E190’s. Chorus Aviation Capital? Who knows.
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sanjet
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by sanjet »

montado wrote: Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:13 pm So the music is about to stop at Jazz? All those new hires going to be stuck on new scale FO pay for years. Probably see the classics and RJs gone and just fly the Q. Why keep the RJ if the C can do it all and do it for cheaper. Plus CHR is in the leasing game so minimal effort to move the RJ anywhere if no flying at Jazz.
Unless there is a serious downturn/recession, I can assure you there will be plenty of movement/progression from what see in this industry. I doubt anything is going to change at the regionals, just a reallocation of flights to other routes.
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altiplano
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by altiplano »

This shuffles the deck a bit for routes/aircraft is all.

Bottom line is more AC/ACr domestic/trans-border ASMs.

Those ASMs are what limit CPA ASMs - it's a ratio.

If anything I expect to see regional ASM growth rise out of this.

I expect regional aircraft will pick up some new routes and get larger. Not likely more fins - head office might not acknowledge a pilot shortage, but they know it's here.

Staffing at all levels will be a challenge moving forward, they need bigger aircraft to move the growing# of people flying.

Good job giving it away at a B-scale ACPA!
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altiplano
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by altiplano »

Double post.
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rudder
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:14 am This shuffles the deck a bit for routes/aircraft is all.

Bottom line is more AC/ACr domestic/trans-border ASMs.

Those ASMs are what limit CPA ASMs - it's a ratio.

If anything I expect to see regional ASM growth rise out of this.

I expect regional aircraft will pick up some new routes and get larger. Not likely more fins - head office might not acknowledge a pilot shortage, but they know it's here.

Staffing at all levels will be a challenge moving forward, they need bigger aircraft to move the growing# of people flying.

Good job giving it away at a B-scale ACPA!
Express still operating a significant fleet of 18 seat/37 seat/50 seat aircraft with modest frequency on low demand city pairs.

Since pilot usability is measured in block hours not ASM’s, Express pilot resources are effectively underutilised.

Will be interesting to see what comes of fleet composition at Express as pilot supply dwindles.
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

altiplano wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:14 am This shuffles the deck a bit for routes/aircraft is all.

Bottom line is more AC/ACr domestic/trans-border ASMs.

Those ASMs are what limit CPA ASMs - it's a ratio.

If anything I expect to see regional ASM growth rise out of this.

I expect regional aircraft will pick up some new routes and get larger. Not likely more fins - head office might not acknowledge a pilot shortage, but they know it's here.

Staffing at all levels will be a challenge moving forward, they need bigger aircraft to move the growing# of people flying.

Good job giving it away at a B-scale ACPA!
ASM’s departed the contractual fix a few years ago. Current scope language limits outsourcing through block hours and a fin count ratio.

With that said. Plenty of room for regional growth if desired.
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

rudder wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:57 am
Will be interesting to see what comes of fleet composition at Express as pilot supply dwindles.
Aircraft upguaging and reduced frequency. A fleet of Q’s and 76 seat jets. As with any scope the 76 number will slowly increase over time within those 90 seat hulls.
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PostmasterGeneral
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by PostmasterGeneral »

Fanblade wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:16 am
rudder wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:57 am
Will be interesting to see what comes of fleet composition at Express as pilot supply dwindles.
Aircraft upguaging and reduced frequency. A fleet of Q’s and 76 seat jets. As with any scope the 76 number will slowly increase over time within those 90 seat hulls.
Where’d you get 76 from? Our scope is 78 seats.
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

PostmasterGeneral wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:24 am
Fanblade wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:16 am
rudder wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:57 am
Will be interesting to see what comes of fleet composition at Express as pilot supply dwindles.
Aircraft upguaging and reduced frequency. A fleet of Q’s and 76 seat jets. As with any scope the 76 number will slowly increase over time within those 90 seat hulls.
Where’d you get 76 from? Our scope is 78 seats.
Nope.

Prop 80 seats
Jet 76 seats.

Your just thinking of the next contract. :smt040
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TheStig
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by TheStig »

The 2017 financial reports last week provided an updated fleet plan to the end of 2019.

It’s shows that fleet growth is slowing dramatically, whereas 13 aircraft will be added to the mainline/rouge fleet in 2018, 2019 only shows a net growth of 2.

ASM’s will continue to grow as the 737’s have slightly greater capacity than the A320’s and A319’s they’ll replace, EMJ’s are replaced by rouge airbus’ and ML 767’s are replaced with used A330’s.

However, after this springs massive hiring wave, there is a good chance ground schools might not resume until the start of next year.

The airline crews itself for peak periods, as far as entry level positions are concerned, for the rouge airbus that’s December to March and for the ML narrow bodies that’s June to September. I’d expect to rouge vacancies to be filled by pilots being reduced off the EMJ next fall, which means that the airline won’t have to have any new hire pilots online to fill the vacancies for the 2 growth aircraft and roughly 100 retirements until the summer of 2019.
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

Stig,

That fleet plan is already obsolete. All 190’s gone by Q3 2019.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/news ... 0s-by-3q19

But I agree with your assessment on growth.

The plan was always 3 phase.

1) Recapitalize the company after 2009 near CCAA.

2) Sustainable profitability which required massive fleet adjustments, growth and cost cutting.

3) Once sustainably profitable pay down debt.


We are nearing the end of phase 2

With that said as growth starts to slow or maybe even stop retirements are picking up.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
mbav8r
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by mbav8r »

Curious,
What of the 400 vacancies on the most recent bid?
Would they not continue to fill those, I assume the reason Jazz was told we will be needing about 300 pilots from the PML forecasted movement is because of said vacancies
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Fanblade
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Re: Rouge Growth/Connector Downsizing ?

Post by Fanblade »

mbav8r wrote: Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:21 am Curious,
What of the 400 vacancies on the most recent bid?
Would they not continue to fill those, I assume the reason Jazz was told we will be needing about 300 pilots from the PML forecasted movement is because of said vacancies
Retirements are starting to kick back in. Those 300 positions really only represent an increase of 180 pilots.

Careful with taking our bids as gospel though. A lot of smoke and mirrors in them.

The hiring isn’t stopping. This spring will be insane. It will eventually start pulling back to retirements only as the growth slows. That is still over a 100/year.

Stig is looking down the road into 2019/20
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