Coronavirus Numbers

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redbusdriver
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by redbusdriver »

likely all worse than reported as not everyone gets tested for confirmation
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DuckBucket
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by DuckBucket »

Good friend of mine works in GIS, his team built this, pretty much catalogues the disease in Canada in real time.

https://resources-covid19canada.hub.arcgis.com
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Reported numbers and mortality rates are USELESS. They are only good at causing enough concern to self isolate as to not overload the medical system.

Hundreds of thousands have probably already had it, but were not tested. Mortality rates are only a factor of those "known" with this Flu bug. Since testing varies throughout different regions, (by the number of test kits and people willing to do them) the real numbers will never be known.

It could be said that only those with more serious symptoms are being tested, spiking the mortality percentage. Thus it's not likely nearly as dangerous as the media is reporting.
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mbav8r
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mbav8r »

RippleRock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:27 am Reported numbers and mortality rates are USELESS. They are only good at causing enough concern to self isolate as to not overload the medical system.

Hundreds of thousands have probably already had it, but were not tested. Mortality rates are only a factor of those "known" with this Flu bug. Since testing varies throughout different regions, (by the number of test kits and people willing to do them) the real numbers will never be known.

It could be said that only those with more serious symptoms are being tested, spiking the mortality percentage. Thus it's not likely nearly as dangerous as the media is reporting.
Oh, you’re one of those that think this is all blown out of proportion! I was tested with only very mild symptoms due to my travel history, and regardless of how many are tested, of those tested in Italy, 10% are dying!
This is NOT the flu, they have a vaccine for the flu. How many will die because they don’t have access to a ventilator, how many collateral deaths from regular old medical issues like heart attack or stroke because the hospitals are overwhelmed?
Do you honestly think that government policy or reaction is based of the media reports, you think India locked down 1.3 billion people because the media fear machine?
The problem with the mentality of the naysayers is not so much they might get a mild version, it’s that they spread it to people who might not be so lucky.
The smart ones will follow the guidance, the rest, well nothing needs to be said about that!
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Calm down. My educational background is in statistics. I assure you the media is "a bit off".
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

mbav8r wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
RippleRock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:27 am Reported numbers and mortality rates are USELESS. They are only good at causing enough concern to self isolate as to not overload the medical system.

Hundreds of thousands have probably already had it, but were not tested. Mortality rates are only a factor of those "known" with this Flu bug. Since testing varies throughout different regions, (by the number of test kits and people willing to do them) the real numbers will never be known.

It could be said that only those with more serious symptoms are being tested, spiking the mortality percentage. Thus it's not likely nearly as dangerous as the media is reporting.
Oh, you’re one of those that think this is all blown out of proportion! I was tested with only very mild symptoms due to my travel history, and regardless of how many are tested, of those tested in Italy, 10% are dying!
This is NOT the flu, they have a vaccine for the flu. How many will die because they don’t have access to a ventilator, how many collateral deaths from regular old medical issues like heart attack or stroke because the hospitals are overwhelmed?
Do you honestly think that government policy or reaction is based of the media reports, you think India locked down 1.3 billion people because the media fear machine?
The problem with the mentality of the naysayers is not so much they might get a mild version, it’s that they spread it to people who might not be so lucky.
The smart ones will follow the guidance, the rest, well nothing needs to be said about that!
First of all, I'm NOT saying its being blown out of proportion as this is very serious, what I am saying if you read what I wrote is that Media reports are not as accurate as one might think, which is a statistical fact. We are all following the "guidance" of social distancing and not endangering others, even us "naysayers". We are intelligent enough to understand that overwhelming the system is "NOT a good idea" right now, and that the "healthy carriers" can be a danger to those with compromised immune systems.

This IS a version of a respritory virus that causes Flu-like symptoms, a newer strain of the SARS infection of the last decade, same origin, same strain.....and NO they do not have a vaccine for all know Flu viruses. From what is KNOWN, 80% of cases will have only mild symptoms. Few if any will get tested, which badly skews the reported mortality data.

Very, very few are dying that don't have underlying medical conditions like diabetes, heart disease, or other respiratory ailments. These people deserve to live, so social distancing will certainly make assistance more available. I'm sure the Government is more than happy to have the media report the "heavily skewed" mortality rate as fact as it creates fear, and fear keeps people in line.
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Kejidog
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Kejidog »

It’s a Panicdemic with the press gleefully pushing every new “case”. Knowing full well that over 80% show mild to no symptoms. Yes people will die Less than 1% closer to .50% of the numbers is that a reason to kill the worlds economy? Very few have no underlying medical comorbidities or are young. 81 is the AVERAGE age in Italy of the deaths.

It’s like an elephant being attacked by a housecat. While fighting off the attack the elephant falls off a cliff and dies.

Anyone remember bird flu that was supposed to kill us all? Or swine flu panic? Or h1n1 or zika or aids for that matter? I bet nobody on this fourm will know anyone under 75 who dies from this prematurely but they will know people who lose jobs, cars, houses etc from the cure.

And I’ll tell you as a first responder people die all the time who are old and sick. Publishing a running tally of this covid is fear mongering at it’s most blatant. We should isolate the most vulnerable, properly screen travellers, do population modeling and tracking instead of this bullshit that every media outlet is screaming about.

Imagine if we had a running tally of lung cancer copd and smoking related deaths on the news 24/7 we’d freak out too.

Everyone is losing in this Flattening the curve experiment to save some time to what get the hospitals built? As far as i can infer Nova Scotia has TWO cases in the hospital. In a province of 1 million,
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

The really, really sad part is that there will be suicides and stress related illnesses due to job loss, devastated finances, diminished retirement savings, and social isolation that wont be reported as being caused by Covid.

As people drink more, smoke more and get fatter sitting at home. Secondary longer term health issues that cause earlier deaths will NOT be reported as being related.

The cost of shutting down the world economy and forcing social isolation is enormous, and will never be calculated properly. The toll of "secondary deaths" will ---far exceed--- the total number of direct deaths over time.

Our "save everyone now" mentality has a price.
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dumbbell daddy
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by dumbbell daddy »

mbav8r wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
RippleRock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:27 am Reported numbers and mortality rates are USELESS. They are only good at causing enough concern to self isolate as to not overload the medical system.

Hundreds of thousands have probably already had it, but were not tested. Mortality rates are only a factor of those "known" with this Flu bug. Since testing varies throughout different regions, (by the number of test kits and people willing to do them) the real numbers will never be known.

It could be said that only those with more serious symptoms are being tested, spiking the mortality percentage. Thus it's not likely nearly as dangerous as the media is reporting.
Oh, you’re one of those that think this is all blown out of proportion! I was tested with only very mild symptoms due to my travel history, and regardless of how many are tested, of those tested in Italy, 10% are dying!
This is NOT the flu, they have a vaccine for the flu. How many will die because they don’t have access to a ventilator, how many collateral deaths from regular old medical issues like heart attack or stroke because the hospitals are overwhelmed?
Do you honestly think that government policy or reaction is based of the media reports, you think India locked down 1.3 billion people because the media fear machine?
The problem with the mentality of the naysayers is not so much they might get a mild version, it’s that they spread it to people who might not be so lucky.
The smart ones will follow the guidance, the rest, well nothing needs to be said about that!
Yeah I'm on of those people that think this thing is blown way out of proportion....and it's because of people like you buying into this media and government fear mongering that the world is getting into such a mess. Your attitude is exactly what they want. So many people are happy to accept the suicidal shutting down of global economies to try to halt a virus that predominantly causes old and sick people to die just a few weeks or months before they would have died anyways. It's ridiculous. Wait until 6 months to a year down the road when things really start to hit home for many people. The facebook and insta quarantine meme's won't seem that funny when Mr. Smith's pogey runs out and he can't get get a job in his field. The opinion that everything, including economies, must be sacrificed to beat this stupid flu like virus is like a throwback to medieval witch hunts. The sacrifice seems more important than finding an effective method/cure to deal with the virus in the first place

End rant.
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photofly
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by photofly »

dumbbell daddy wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 am a virus that predominantly causes old and sick people to die just a few weeks or months before they would have died anyways. ...

The opinion that everything, including economies, must be sacrificed to beat this stupid flu like virus is like a throwback to medieval witch hunts. The sacrifice seems more important than finding an effective method/cure to deal with the virus in the first place
Right. Nobody thinks it's important to look for a cure or a vaccine. Now that you've mentioned it, the world will get right on that.

You haven't thought through either the practicalities or ethics of your viewpoint. Health systems are overwhelmed. People don't die "just a few weeks" before they otherwise would, suddenly and painlessly in the middle of the night. They first call their doctor, or an ambulance, or go to the hospital, because they can't breathe. Let you be the one to stand at the door and say "I'm sorry, you might have COVID-19, for the sake of the economy I'm not going to treat you - you have only a few weeks to live anyway, go and die somewhere else." Because wIthout your intervention in this form the hospital will not be there to treat your broken leg, your appendicitis, to birth your children, to MRI your tumour or treat your hepatitis. We have a medical system. Let you be the person to propose laws and regulations to stem the flow of patients. Or let you be the one responsible for the disaster that's made of hospitals by 6% of the population needing two weeks of ICU within a six month period.

This society - the one that created you - cares for the weak, the vulnerable and the sick. We don't cull new-born babies with disabilities. We don't terminate the elderly when their cost/benefit ratio rises above 1. There is no purpose for having a strong economy if we don't care for people who need care. This week, it's not your time to need it, so it's not convenient for you to acknowledge that. Another time, it will be your turn. It doesn't matter that you personally don't know the name of anyone affected (yet) by this nasty disease that makes people drown, slowly and painfully, in their own body fluids. We'll all do our best to stop that being you and anyone you know. All we ask is that you help us by not needlessly getting yourself sick. But be assured that if and when you do, you'll be given the same chance at medical intervention that might save your life as everyone else.
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mbav8r
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mbav8r »

dumbbell daddy wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 am
mbav8r wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:25 am
RippleRock wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:27 am Reported numbers and mortality rates are USELESS. They are only good at causing enough concern to self isolate as to not overload the medical system.

Hundreds of thousands have probably already had it, but were not tested. Mortality rates are only a factor of those "known" with this Flu bug. Since testing varies throughout different regions, (by the number of test kits and people willing to do them) the real numbers will never be known.

It could be said that only those with more serious symptoms are being tested, spiking the mortality percentage. Thus it's not likely nearly as dangerous as the media is reporting.
Oh, you’re one of those that think this is all blown out of proportion! I was tested with only very mild symptoms due to my travel history, and regardless of how many are tested, of those tested in Italy, 10% are dying!
This is NOT the flu, they have a vaccine for the flu. How many will die because they don’t have access to a ventilator, how many collateral deaths from regular old medical issues like heart attack or stroke because the hospitals are overwhelmed?
Do you honestly think that government policy or reaction is based of the media reports, you think India locked down 1.3 billion people because the media fear machine?
The problem with the mentality of the naysayers is not so much they might get a mild version, it’s that they spread it to people who might not be so lucky.
The smart ones will follow the guidance, the rest, well nothing needs to be said about that!
Yeah I'm on of those people that think this thing is blown way out of proportion....and it's because of people like you buying into this media and government fear mongering that the world is getting into such a mess. Your attitude is exactly what they want. So many people are happy to accept the suicidal shutting down of global economies to try to halt a virus that predominantly causes old and sick people to die just a few weeks or months before they would have died anyways. It's ridiculous. Wait until 6 months to a year down the road when things really start to hit home for many people. The facebook and insta quarantine meme's won't seem that funny when Mr. Smith's pogey runs out and he can't get get a job in his field. The opinion that everything, including economies, must be sacrificed to beat this stupid flu like virus is like a throwback to medieval witch hunts. The sacrifice seems more important than finding an effective method/cure to deal with the virus in the first place

End rant.
Let’s circle back to this in 6 months and see if you feel the same, it’s not just sick and old people dying, otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s are also dying.
Let’s see how it works for Brazil or Sweden without responding, maybe you’ll be right, very unlikely. My guess, when they realize it, it will be too late.
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altiplano
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

photofly wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:08 am
dumbbell daddy wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:35 am a virus that predominantly causes old and sick people to die just a few weeks or months before they would have died anyways. ...

The opinion that everything, including economies, must be sacrificed to beat this stupid flu like virus is like a throwback to medieval witch hunts. The sacrifice seems more important than finding an effective method/cure to deal with the virus in the first place
Right. Nobody thinks it's important to look for a cure or a vaccine. Now that you've mentioned it, the world will get right on that.

You haven't thought through either the practicalities or ethics of your viewpoint. Health systems are overwhelmed. People don't die "just a few weeks" before they otherwise would, suddenly and painlessly in the middle of the night. They first call their doctor, or an ambulance, or go to the hospital, because they can't breathe. Let you be the one to stand at the door and say "I'm sorry, you might have COVID-19, for the sake of the economy I'm not going to treat you - you have only a few weeks to live anyway, go and die somewhere else." Because wIthout your intervention in this form the hospital will not be there to treat your broken leg, your appendicitis, to birth your children, to MRI your tumour or treat your hepatitis. We have a medical system. Let you be the person to propose laws and regulations to stem the flow of patients. Or let you be the one responsible for the disaster that's made of hospitals by 6% of the population needing two weeks of ICU within a six month period.

This society - the one that created you - cares for the weak, the vulnerable and the sick. We don't cull new-born babies with disabilities. We don't terminate the elderly when their cost/benefit ratio rises above 1. There is no purpose for having a strong economy if we don't care for people who need care. This week, it's not your time to need it, so it's not convenient for you to acknowledge that. Another time, it will be your turn. It doesn't matter that you personally don't know the name of anyone affected (yet) by this nasty disease that makes people drown, slowly and painfully, in their own body fluids. We'll all do our best to stop that being you and anyone you know. All we ask is that you help us by not needlessly getting yourself sick. But be assured that if and when you do, you'll be given the same chance at medical intervention that might save your life as everyone else.
You pose a false dilemma and your added drama and assertions of it being equivalent to murdering babies is ridiculous.

That we have to ignore all else for the sake of this one course of action, and to not do so is equivalent to a death sentence for all the weaker members of our society is incorrect.

In fact there are multiple directions that could have been taken.

Look at all the problems we have created by the complete shutdown approach unrelated to the virus itself? And for it all, I don't see the "curve flattening". Yet we have further marginalized another even larger sector of the population, and the job losses have only just started, the underemployed households, people just hanging on, people without savings, single parent families, entire household incomes evaporated... make no mistake this will take it's own health toll and death count on many.

I believe we should have focused on isolating and supporting the most at risk health comprised individuals, instead of this half ass job of isolating everyone which hasn't stopped anything.

That said, I'm locked down... this is what the powers that be decided and I'm fully compliant with it, but to question is efficacy and larger implications or to propose alternatives is not unethical or equivalent to advocating for the death of the infirm.
mbav8r wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:36 am Let’s circle back to this in 6 months and see if you feel the same, it’s not just sick and old people dying, otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s are also dying.
Let’s see how it works for Brazil or Sweden without responding, maybe you’ll be right, very unlikely. My guess, when they realize it, it will be too late.
I agree on 6 months review. That's the only way we will really know what worked... I think you will find it roughly the same from one nation to the next no matter the approach taken. The cat was already out of the bag when we started the half assed "lock down" here - too little too late to stop the spread. Even now our late lock down still isn't one. People always find a way around it. So none of the positives, with all of the broader negatives.
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Kejidog
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Kejidog »

[/quote]
Let’s circle back to this in 6 months and see if you feel the same, it’s not just sick and old people dying, otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s are also dying.
Let’s see how it works for Brazil or Sweden without responding, maybe you’ll be right, very unlikely. My guess, when they realize it, it will be too late.
[/quote]


I think that this will apply to you as well when the “potential” deaths don’t appear. And as of last week the hospital supplies “could” run out in a week and 40% of cases are in young people was a “mistake” and any other fear spread about this Panicdemic are bunk. The reality was we tried to kill a mosquito with a sledgehammer. Screwing young and old alike due to this “open ended” self isolation scam. But i bet people like you will have moved on the the next advertising “crisis” that needs to be solved by our government. EDITED.
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mbav8r
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mbav8r »

Kejidog wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:02 am
Let’s circle back to this in 6 months and see if you feel the same, it’s not just sick and old people dying, otherwise healthy people in their 30s and 40s are also dying.
Let’s see how it works for Brazil or Sweden without responding, maybe you’ll be right, very unlikely. My guess, when they realize it, it will be too late.
[/quote]


I think that this will apply to you as well when the “potential” deaths don’t appear. And as of last week the hospital supplies “could” run out in a week and 40% of cases are in young people was a “mistake” and any other fear spread about this Panicdemic are bunk. The reality was we tried to kill a mosquito with a sledgehammer. Screwing young and old alike due to this “open ended” self isolation scam. But i bet people like you will have moved on the the next advertising “crisis” that needs to be solved by our government.
[/quote]
Wow!
I don’t subscribe to media hype or crisis, I look at the big picture and decide for myself if it’s logical, there are plenty of anecdotes of people who felt the same as you until they didn’t.
They are predicting as many as 200,000 deaths in the US now, in my opinion we waited too long to implement the necessary restrictions, but you do you, hope for your sake you don’t have to find out what this mosquito can do to a healthy person.
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ayseven
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by ayseven »

I love the comments by those who think it is just old people who are going to die; said by people who are not, and do not know a lot of, old people. Just keep to yourself, and maybe nobody you know will be affected. As for yourselves, it is obvious you don't care about that.

I think there is a lot of anti-authoritarian thought. In this case, we should really err on the side of caution, and keep big egos out of it, don't you think?
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altiplano
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

Do you guys believe the present course of action was the ONLY possible response to Covid-19?

Do you think it is effective so far?
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rudder
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by rudder »

61 heath care workers dead in Italy so far.

Any suggestion that this just kills the old and weak is unfounded. A 20 year old that needs to be intubated where no ventilator is available due to patient volume will become a fatality.

This event is about avoidance of infection after the fact. With millions infected the health care system will be overwhelmed even if just thousands require hospital care.

And while COVID-19 patients fill hospital beds, where will we put stroke victims? Heart attack victims? Car crash victims? Will they become a casualty of a marginal response to the spread of the virus?

Like it or not health resources are finite. And that is why we are all sitting in our homes.

Hope for a vaccine. Otherwise life will not return to normal anytime soon.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

Kejidog wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:02 am
Spectacular.
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dialdriver
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by dialdriver »

Kejidog wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:02 am
Is that you ACBoi?
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propfeather
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by propfeather »

Kejidog wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:02 am
Aaaand the true colours are shown. Time to take a break there bud.
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