Coronavirus Numbers

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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:39 am
RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:35 am How about banning all tobacco products????
Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.
What part of my statistical argument is weak? Break out your calculator if you're confused.

There is a chance mine may be giving erroneous data, perhaps you could clean up my math for the benefit of all.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:56 am [quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????
Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.
[/quote]

What part of my statistical argument is weak?
[/quote]

Presumptions on your part. Your insistence on arguments that are either A or B. Your refusal to recognize “related” as valid. Your refusal to accept the measures as contributing to the low Canadian death rate, or the lack of measures in other places contributing to higher death rates. Your seeming misunderstanding of what “contagious” means. I could go on.
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

The government is trying to "prevent" Covid deaths is it not?? Prevent death, now and in the future?

I understand the term contagious, but even multiplying the number of current deaths by tenfold --still wouldn't approach-- the number avoidable tobacco use takes yearly.

They could largely stamp out up to 45,000 yearly deaths by enacting one piece of legislation.

Make smoking illegal.

Hypocrisy.
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

I'm kinda done Rockie, you go ahead with the last word.

Convince us all that this is far more significant than the numbers are clearly showing, even at --10x-- the current numbers. It will remain statistically insignificant in the larger scheme. But go ahead.
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VeRmiLLioN
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by VeRmiLLioN »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:39 am
RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:35 am How about banning all tobacco products????
Is cancer from smoking contagious?
Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

VeRmiLLioN wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:34 am [quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????
Is cancer from smoking contagious?

[/quote]

Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....
[/quote]

No, it’s not. It’s unhealthy and I can certainly attest to the fact it’s unpleasant having grown up with it my whole childhood. But not contagious. Ironically though non-smokers have been practicing “social distancing” from smokers for many years.

Ripplerock. I forgot in my last post to include the fact no public health or medical authorities agree with you. But I have to admit a certain wonder at your conviction you know more than they do. Impressive...almost Trumpian.
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mmm..bacon
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mmm..bacon »

From a friend of mine who is an Orthopedic Surgeon: [Ok, he's not an epidemiologist, but he does have a fairly hight degree of medical training...]

Diamond Princess
3711 people - ALL tested
21+ days in ship
2999 - negative (81%)
712 - positive (19%)
335 - no symptoms (47% or 9% of all)
377 - symptoms (53%. or 10% of all)
10 Deaths (1.4% or 0.26%)

USS Teddy R
4938 crew - ALL tested
30 plus days in ship
4098 - negative (83%)
840 - positive (17%)
92 - hospitalized aboard (11% or 1.9%. of all)
4 - remain of the 92 hospitalized (4.3% or 0.08% of all)
88 - recovered (95.7%)
1 - deaths (0.1% or 0.02%)
Similar numbers from Iceland and Italy town of Vo.
USC, Stanford and NY antibody data shows that 2-5% to as high as 20% of population has already had C19 - no sx.
Thus in NY (1 in 7 to 1 in 5 inn NYC) per Gov. suggests ~ 14% have had C19, not just 268, 581
20, 861 deaths 4/23
Mortality touted is ~21K/268K = 7.8%
More likely ~21K/2.7M=0.5-0.72%
Over 50-75% of mortality seen in at risk; near zero mortality seen in the 0-10 yo population.


The above would seem to suggest a mortality rate of .75% of those who test positive..
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by rxl »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:35 am How about banning all tobacco products????

45,000 lives lost in Canada PER YEAR attributed directly to Tobacco use.

From the CBC:

The costs to the Canadian economy add up, among them:

Hospital care, $3.8 billion.
Prescription drugs, $1.7 billion.
Physician care, $1 billion.
Fire damage, $74.4 million
Tobacco research and prevention, $10.7 million
Tobacco control and law enforcement, $122 million

But the biggest costs were the loss to families of having a breadwinner die or become disabled because of a smoking-related illness and the productivity loss to employers of losing a worker to a smoking-related condition.
Loss of productivity, income

Forgone earnings as a result of smoking-attributable premature death and illness was estimated at $9.5 billion, and the cost of short and long-term disability was $7 billion. Those who became ill while in the workforce lost an average of seven years of their productive work life, the study found.

In 2012, 599,390 potential years of life were lost because of smoking, meaning smoking knocked an average of 13 years off the life of people who became ill.

The cost to the economy of losing someone over age 65, who is unlikely to be in the workforce, is lower, Dinh said, but almost 25 per cent of those affected by smoking related illnesses are of working years.

Why not ban them completely??? TAX REVENUE. The Government actually cares little for the health of its citizens. Which seems to point at political "theatrics" in the Covid-19 response.
Smoking should be banned. 100%.
According to the Physicians for a Smoke-Free Economy, in FY 2018-19 tobacco taxes (mostly from cigarette sales) generated $8.3B in revenue, about half of what smoking costs the economy annually. The revenue generated doesn’t even come close to covering the financial burden to society. Smoking is a personal choice. Infection with a novel and potentially lethal virus is not.
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goldeneagle
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by goldeneagle »

You guys keep going on about how you think the public health folks got it all wrong. Lets re-stat the problem, but do it in aviation terms you can all recognize.

You are on a widebody aircraft of some type, going say YYZ to YVR, flying along fat and happy in the vicinity of Manitoba drinking a coffee. A fire light comes on suggesting there may be a fire in one of the cargo holds full of baggage. do you

a) Activate an extinguisher, declare an emergency, then divert to nearest suitable airport when fire light stays on, ask for trucks to roll while on approach.
b) Ponder it for a minute, contemplate your coffee cup, then tell you partner in the cockpit to just ignore the light, it's probably an indicator error, will get excited if the folks in the back start reporting flames coming thru the floor.

Assume for a moment you chose option A. Now you are on the ground and the belly compartment is opened, you see a small charred area in one corner. Do you

a) Pat yourself on the back for activating the extinguisher early and putting the fire out.
b) Grumble and complain because now you have all the hassles of dealing with a major diversion for a fire that was already out.

Tell me RippleRock, are you really going to choose option B and ignore the fire warning? It's essentially what you are bitching about, public health folks didn't just ignore the warnings they got. They did the public health equivalent of 'activate the fire extinguisher'.

but hey, I do understand why you are saying what you did. In 1958 a bunch of miners blew your brains out:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_Rock
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VeRmiLLioN
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by VeRmiLLioN »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:08 am
VeRmiLLioN wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:34 am [quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????
Is cancer from smoking contagious?
Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....
[/quote]

No, it’s not. It’s unhealthy and I can certainly attest to the fact it’s unpleasant having grown up with it my whole childhood. But not contagious. Ironically though non-smokers have been practicing “social distancing” from smokers for many years.

[/quote]

HAHAHA.

Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking! :roll:

Anyway, I be preemptive...

sure. Ok. nope. perhaps. Ask David Suzuki.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

VeRmiLLioN wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:44 pm Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking!
For me it's because I can't stand the smell after having it blown in my face for 15 years. Do you know what "contagious" means?
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VeRmiLLioN
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by VeRmiLLioN »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm
VeRmiLLioN wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:44 pm Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking!
For me it's because I can't stand the smell after having it blown in my face for 15 years. Do you know what "contagious" means?
See answers above.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

So then I guess coal dust is contagious. Smog. Asbestos. Inhaling bleach.

Why don’t you just look it up?
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Jimmyh787
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Jimmyh787 »

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pelmet
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by pelmet »

Looks like the Quebec government listened to what I had to say.....

viewtopic.php?p=1111956#p1111956

viewtopic.php?p=1112166#p1112166

viewtopic.php?p=1112249#p1112249

viewtopic.php?p=1112348#p1112348

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec ... -immunity/

The herd immunity idea is controversial even in epidemiology circles but is often considered the lesser of two evils.
“The minute we stop the current confinement, the virus will spread more and we will see an increase in the number of cases, hospital and ICU admissions,” Ste-Justine Hospital medical microbiologist and epidemiologist Dr. Caroline Quach said in an interview.
“But the goal is to control the spread so our health-care capacity is not overwhelmed. Since 80 to 90 per cent of the population will have mild disease, it is a possible thing to do.”


As usual, Rockie was wrong. Time for me to send out more recommendations to the appropriate authorities in other jurisdictions.

Pelmet...saving the economy while protecting the population as best as reasonably possible.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

It’s not possible for me to be wrong Pelmet, because I have not formulated my own opinions on this since I have the exact same expertise you have...none whatsoever.

I do agree though, and have repeated the aggregate professional opinions stated en masse.

Once again they are:

1. Infection numbers must come down and stay down while reopening. Which means;
2. Extensive testing capability.
3. Extensive tracing capability.
4. Vulnerable people must stay isolated until the threat is sufficiently reduced.
5. Any reopening must be done in stages, done very carefully, and be constantly monitored for new spikes.


When we can do that we begin reopening, however the priority is guard against spikes and not overloading the health system. Reopening too fast or before we are ready is vigorously discouraged by health professionals. You know, the people who know what they’re talking about unlike you and me.

I know you have this pathological need to be right, or more importantly for me to be wrong. But once again for the really slow learners these aren’t my opinions, I just agree with them.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/herd-i ... -1.5545332

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/testing- ... -1.5547281
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Last edited by Rockie on Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
pelmet
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by pelmet »

Some of the responses to my herd immunity recommendation several weeks ago

viewtopic.php?p=1112104#p1112104

viewtopic.php?p=1112124#p1112124

viewtopic.php?p=1112143#p1112143

viewtopic.php?p=1112165#p1112165

Sorry Rockie, you didn't know what you are talking about, just like in the SFO near disaster thread and the TALPA thread.

Meanwhile...maybe I'll run for PM;)
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pelmet
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by pelmet »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:10 pm It’s not possible for me to be wrong Pelmet, because I have not formulated my own opinions on this since I have the exact same expertise you have...none whatsoever.

I do agree though, and have repeated the aggregate professional opinions stated en masse.

Once again they are:

1. Infection numbers must come down and stay down while reopening. Which means;
2. Extensive testing capability.
3. Extensive tracing capability.
4. Vulnerable people must stay isolated until the threat is sufficiently reduced.
5. Any reopening must be done in stages, done very carefully, and be constantly monitored for new spikes.


When we can do that we begin reopening, however the priority is guard against spikes and not overloading the health system. Reopening too fast or before we are ready is vigorously discouraged by health professionals. You know, the people who know what they’re talking about unlike you and me.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/herd-i ... -1.5545332

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/testing- ... -1.5547281
We don't have extensive testing capability. The economy is too important and it is being re-opened. Kids are going back to school to get immune. There will be some fatalities along with more car accidents. Thanks for the article from Dr. Tam. I guess you still have faith in her.
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boeingboy
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by boeingboy »

I believe that the truth lies between the two sides - both make good and bad points...

But you "experts" going on about all we need is heard immunity - need to get off the soapbox and let the experts figure that out. That doesn't work with everything, and there is no evidence that it will work with COVID-19. In fact - while there is no hard evidence yet either way - there are signs that that may not work. In addition....those that do recover are having permeant damage to some of their organs. Can you imagine what would happen if they were re-infected?

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-im ... infection/
Troubling headlines have been cropping up across Asia: Patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and seemingly recovered have been readmitted to the hospital after testing positive for the virus again. South Korean officials announced 111 such cases as of April 12.
Because SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, was only discovered a few months ago, scientists are still trying to answer many big questions related to the virus and the disease it causes.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is investigating the reports of patients testing positive after being released from treatment, but said it has no findings yet. “We are closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases,” the agency told Reuters April 11.
With other coronavirus strains, experts say the antibodies that patients produce during infection give them immunity to the specific virus for months or even years, but researchers are still figuring out if and how that works with COVID-19.


The answer has huge implications for the spread of the disease, since researchers believe it will continue to crash across the world in waves, hitting the same country multiple times.
If it works out that heard immunity actually works against this - Great! we all have less to worry about.

Better to play safe than and wait for hard answers than to play god with peoples lives. If your wrong - god help you....
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pelmet
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by pelmet »

boeingboy wrote: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:07 pm I believe that the truth lies between the two sides - both make good and bad points...

But you "experts" going on about all we need is heard immunity - need to get off the soapbox and let the experts figure that out. That doesn't work with everything, and there is no evidence that it will work with COVID-19. In fact - while there is no hard evidence yet either way - there are signs that that may not work. In addition....those that do recover are having permeant damage to some of their organs. Can you imagine what would happen if they were re-infected?

https://time.com/5810454/coronavirus-im ... infection/
Troubling headlines have been cropping up across Asia: Patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and seemingly recovered have been readmitted to the hospital after testing positive for the virus again. South Korean officials announced 111 such cases as of April 12.
Because SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, was only discovered a few months ago, scientists are still trying to answer many big questions related to the virus and the disease it causes.
The World Health Organization (WHO) is investigating the reports of patients testing positive after being released from treatment, but said it has no findings yet. “We are closely liaising with our clinical experts and working hard to get more information on those individual cases,” the agency told Reuters April 11.
With other coronavirus strains, experts say the antibodies that patients produce during infection give them immunity to the specific virus for months or even years, but researchers are still figuring out if and how that works with COVID-19.


The answer has huge implications for the spread of the disease, since researchers believe it will continue to crash across the world in waves, hitting the same country multiple times.
If it works out that heard immunity actually works against this - Great! we all have less to worry about.

Better to play safe than and wait for hard answers than to play god with peoples lives. If your wrong - god help you....
Very minor detail...it is Herd immunity not Heard.

111 cases out of 11,000 confirmed and probably millions of unconfirmed cases. We can't destroy the economy just because some people who have already calculated that they will be OK financially, say to keep it shut down and be safe. The vast majority will become immune. The experts all have full time good paying jobs and don't want to be accused of having lost a life.

Lock down the vulnerable.
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