The Return to Normal?

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780Pilot
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The Return to Normal?

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Full Article Below


An Air Canada vice president suggests that by the time winter holidays roll around again, Canadians will be able to board his company's planes and fly almost anywhere in the world.

But Tim Strauss said he knows that one of the biggest tasks involved in bringing air travel back to life after pandemic restrictions lift will be convincing the public it's safe to fly.

"I think by Christmas you will see a significant amount of flying again," said Strauss, vice president of cargo at Air Canada. "We'll be flying to most places around the world and certainly domestically."

There may be fewer flights available and more connections than travellers are used to, he added.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

Thoughts on this?
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Ki-ll
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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If you say something enough times, doesn’t matter what it is, it’ll start sounding like truth more and more.
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Last edited by Ki-ll on Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
MrAviator19
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by MrAviator19 »

This is definitely the kind of positive news our industry should be looking forward to especially since the negativity of the last 2 months! In my opinion, it all depends on how quick they can produce and distribute the vaccine, which according to this article, could now be ready by the end of the year:

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52483359

As soon as the cure is out, people go back to their old ways and this becomes just another strain of the flu until the next big one gets imported from China.

MrA
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2R
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by 2R »

I want to believe :)
I-WANT-TO-BELIEVE-X-FILES-UFO-POSTER.jpg
I-WANT-TO-BELIEVE-X-FILES-UFO-POSTER.jpg (18.49 KiB) Viewed 10827 times
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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Except half the population won’t have 2 nickels to rub together after months of unemployment/severe recession. Maybe the airlines will offer free flights? :rolleyes:
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montado
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by montado »

Inverted2 wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:46 pm Except half the population won’t have 2 nickels to rub together after months of unemployment/severe recession. Maybe the airlines will offer free flights? :rolleyes:
They are paying teachers to stay home. Parents are taking on just about all of the responsibilities of teaching, may as well be home schooling. But why would the government layoff teachers in Ontario? Free money for everyone! The great thing is we can count on them to buy up the vacations next Christmas break.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by EPR »

Inverted2 wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:46 pm Except half the population won’t have 2 nickels to rub together after months of unemployment/severe recession. Maybe the airlines will offer free flights? :rolleyes:
British Airways did in 1991! I flew Business Class from Mirabel to London for free, and they even paid for one nights accommodation! All I did was clip a coupon out of the news paper and filled out my info and snail mailed it in, four weeks later two free tickets! Here’s the details.

The early 1990s was not a good era for BA.

Traffic fell away sharply during the 1990 Gulf War, which also led to the destruction of one of its Boeing 747 aircraft in Kuwait, with demand falling by about 30%.

BA was also facing increased competition at Heathrow with American Airlines and United Airlines securing route authorities from Trans World Airlines and Pan American World Airways. Virgin Atlantic was to also shortly secure access to Heathrow.

In March 1991, former BA Chairman Lord King described the situation as “The engine of consumer demand did not just idle in neutral, it sputtered to a complete stop” and “now it needs a kick start”.

“The World’s Biggest Offer”

So BA hatched a plan.

It gave away in a ballot every single seat on every international flight to and from the UK, including Concorde, on 23 April 1991. This was equivalent to around 50,000 free tickets. The 20,000 passengers who had already booked flights on that day would receive a voucher towards the purchase of a new flight.

Passengers could either apply in person at BA ticket offices or through newspaper entry forms.
The promotion was kept under wraps until it broke on the same day around the world in March 1991 – an achievement in itself given this pre-dated the internet.

BA’s ad agency Saatchi & Saatchi booked space in newspapers in over 70 countries around the world for the promotion. Bogus adverts were placed with the newspapers and then swapped at the eleventh hour.

It is estimated that some 500 million people read about the offer, 200 million saw it on TV and 5.7 million people entered the ballot for a free flight.

There is of course no more powerful marketing tool than getting something for free. The promotion was considered a success with passenger numbers returning to their original level within 120 days.
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Eric Janson
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Eric Janson »

Very difficult to make any sort of predictions imho.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by flying4dollars »

I still think we are in a wait and see phase. Only once provinces, and the rest of the world begin opening up their economies again and start to slowly lift restrictions, will we see how the consumers, and the virus respond.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by schnitzel2k3 »

Ki-ll wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:53 pm If you say something enough times, doesn’t matter what it is, it’ll start sounding like truth more and more.
If the fearmongers (news outlets, politicians, and social media influencers, etc) keep spreading dread and despair, it's likely the general public will exhibit the same emotions.

We have created a ton of fear regarding this virus, and in many cases it deserves a lot of care and respect. We underestimated our ability to deal with it promptly. That's why we are playing catchup, and many innocent people are paying the ultimate price. But our constant focus on the negative has left us unable to work towards a positive. If we keep saying this industry is going to be affected for years based on unrelated past events (i.e 9/11, financial crisis 2008-10), other than the fact that those events resulted in some form of economic downturn, we will create a self fulfilling prophecy. It really is an 'I told you so' scenario that could've been avoided.

Stay positive, I know it's hard. We'll get through this. Hey at least we can look forward to the middle seat disappearing for the foreseeable future. I imagine to recapture that lost seat, seats will be placed from child pitch to toddler :lol:
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Ki-ll
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Ki-ll »

schnitzel2k3 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 1:29 pm If the fearmongers (news outlets, politicians, and social media influencers, etc) keep spreading dread and despair, it's likely the general public will exhibit the same emotions.
Fair enough. There really isn’t enough positive news out there, really there isn’t any news other than COVID news.
As far as AC goes, they are about to publish the next crew requirement bid. Then we’ll really see whether this article is wishful thinking or not. Will they put their money where their mouth is?
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by 780Pilot »

The article is all about holiday season travel. How far out do bids go? Hopefully that makes sense.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by cjp »

There really isn't a lot of positive news. Typically it doesn't attract as much attention, thereby creating as much profit, as the negative news cycle and worst cases.

Fingers crossed AC can get some traction in winter 2020/21, as they are the hiring engine in Canadian aviation.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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goingnowherefast
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by goingnowherefast »

If routes aren't flying (and useful frequency/connections) customers can't book the flight. If nobody's booking flights, aren't going to add capacity. It's a vicious catch-22.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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What I have been noticing as of late, people are itching to bust loose. Things are starting to look up and there will be further easing of the restrictions in the month of May and into a June. How that translates for the airline business going forward tis anybody’s guess but for now there is a dim light at the end of the tunnel and at some point that light will become brighter.
:drinkers:
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by mixturerich »

Old fella wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:58 pm What I have been noticing as of late, people are itching to bust loose. Things are starting to look up and there will be further easing of the restrictions in the month of May and into a June. How that translates for the airline business going forward tis anybody’s guess but for now there is a dim light at the end of the tunnel and at some point that light will become brighter.
:drinkers:
Well it certainly can’t get much worse.
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Eric Janson
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Eric Janson »

mixturerich wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 1:47 am
Old fella wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:58 pm What I have been noticing as of late, people are itching to bust loose. Things are starting to look up and there will be further easing of the restrictions in the month of May and into a June. How that translates for the airline business going forward tis anybody’s guess but for now there is a dim light at the end of the tunnel and at some point that light will become brighter.
:drinkers:
Well it certainly can’t get much worse.
I wouldn't be too sure about that.

At an anonymous Airline (who I can't name).

Tentative minimal operations to re-start in the next 2 months. This is subject to change and will depend on demand and whether borders are open.

Planning is to be at just over 50% of previous capacity in 1 year from now. Return to previous levels is expected in 3 years.

This represents the most "Optimistic" scenario.

Staff have been informed that it's currently only about the survival of the Airline and there are no guarantees for jobs or salaries going forward.

I don't believe the above to be a unique situation - this is what most Airlines are looking at imho.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by RippleRock »

Eric Janson wrote: Wed May 06, 2020 9:19 am
mixturerich wrote: Sun May 03, 2020 1:47 am
Old fella wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 6:58 pm What I have been noticing as of late, people are itching to bust loose. Things are starting to look up and there will be further easing of the restrictions in the month of May and into a June. How that translates for the airline business going forward tis anybody’s guess but for now there is a dim light at the end of the tunnel and at some point that light will become brighter.
:drinkers:
Well it certainly can’t get much worse.
I wouldn't be too sure about that.

At an anonymous Airline (who I can't name).

Tentative minimal operations to re-start in the next 2 months. This is subject to change and will depend on demand and whether borders are open.

Planning is to be at just over 50% of previous capacity in 1 year from now. Return to previous levels is expected in 3 years.

This represents the most "Optimistic" scenario.

Staff have been informed that it's currently only about the survival of the Airline and there are no guarantees for jobs or salaries going forward.

I don't believe the above to be a unique situation - this is what most Airlines are looking at imho.
People are itching to bust out everywhere, right now. Kids are travelling in groups all over. The local skateboard park had over 50 kids today. The local Home Depot is hammered --all the time--, as is Walmart. Very few masks. The toilet paper shelves are full in every store. People are hauling their camping trailers out of storage. I know some who are looking at booking Mexico in September as the deals will be incredible. People are already done with this.

Three months ago was a "long time" ago given whats transpired. Three months from now, everything will change again. To predict what will happen by Christmas is a bit far fetched unless you have a functioning crystal ball. 50% capacity a year from now, like next May? We'll definitely have emergency antibody protection by then, and likely a vaccine of sorts that protects at least a percentage of the population. Rapid testing will have evolved as will effective social distancing programs. Mass herd immunity will have been attained to a degree.

How can you predict --anything-- a year out, let alone a full Aviation recovery in three?? That's 36 months from now, an eternity given the speed of the outbreak and the flattening of the curve. I wouldn't remotely call it an "optimistic outlook". Given that this "pandemic" has taken only one life in ten thousand in this country, ( most being in long term care homes, over 70 --AND-- with underlying medical issues) the fear level is statistically DUMB. (that's for you Rockie)

The public has gotten a taste of mass, decently priced air travel. Most know that this life is no dress rehersal, they can't do the next three years over, and they intend to go on living. They won't be giving up air travel to vacation by car in Flin Flon anytime soon.

We have never been here before, so to predict anything is a bit of a joke, and it becomes more so as the timeline extends. Follow the social trends, and watch the statistics. They don't lie.

Most are intelligent enough to not require the Government to interpret the actual data for them. 4000 deaths in a population of nearly 40 million is 1 in 10,000. Chances are you don't know anyone who knows someone who died or was permanently compromised by Covid-19......and you likely won't.
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