The Return to Normal?

Discuss topics relating to Air Canada.

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TheStig
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by TheStig »

flea wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:18 am Any idea what impact this latest announcement will have on pilot furlough numbers post September?
600 Pilots can be furloughed prior to the end of September, the remaining 195 surplus after that, if in fact they are still surplus at that time. Flight Operations likely has been evaluating the airlines' ability to operate without some or all of those pilots. Pilots have to be furloughed in order of reverse seniority. The junior 600 pilots are a qualified in a large variety of First Officer and Relief Pilot positions, with large numbers qualified on the EMJ, L319 and L767. With little flying forecast for the foreseeable future, yesterdays lay-offs are troubling news for the pilot group as well.
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Old fella
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Old fella »

rudder wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:37 am This announcement by AC is simply a response to the lack of industry specific support from YOW. Shock and awe.

AC is telling YOW that making fully repayable loans available (and thereby loading up the debt side of the balance sheet) is not good enough, particularly considering state aid being given to global competitors. CR is looking at long term liability and impact on AC viability.

This also means that the TRZ deal is all but dead.

CR just put the call back in JT’s court.
Some would suggest JT played the ball in his court quite very in that he blew deficit projections through the roof and well into orbit by helping as best as possible in an extraordinary challenging situation. I kinda doubt at this point in time CR is gonna intimidate The JT administration in any way. There is more to this unfortunate situation than seeing it through the Airline industry lens. Many more lenses are involved.
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rudder
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by rudder »

Old fella wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:11 am
Some would suggest JT played the ball in his court quite very in that he blew deficit projections through the roof and well into orbit by helping as best as possible in an extraordinary challenging situation. I kinda doubt at this point in time CR is gonna intimidate The JT administration in any way. There is more to this unfortunate situation than seeing it through the Airline industry lens. Many more lenses are involved.
Disagree. But remember that CR does not care about the federal deficit, he cares about AC and its shareholders. And CR knows his way around YOW. Recall that is how he got his start in the AC portfolio.

By announcing the (thus far) largest single employer layoff in Canada as a result of the government mandated shutdown, AC is placing a marker on the table. JT (and perhaps BM) thought they could hide behind CEWS and LEEFF as the solution to having effectively closed a highly capital intensive industry. CR said not good enough.

CR is also placing a bet that JT does not want to see his TRZ puppy drowned (JT doesn’t care about TRZ but he does care about votes in La Belle Province).

Perhaps JT won’t blink. So be it.

But this “sunny ways” crap does not work when times are tough. Now it is the big leagues and actions (or lack thereof) have consequences.
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timeflies
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by timeflies »

CR pulling the trigger once again. what a guy. All the questions asked during the press conference today were about AC.

With Trudeau announcing that his govt will provide more help to airlines in order to go thru this pandemic , is it an early W for AC?

One thing’s for sure, JT won't have many choices, the pressure is on him.

--

Air Canada in 2020
February: Declares record $7.38 billion in cash reserves
March: Lays off 16,000 of 38,000 workers
April: Rehires 16,000 workers because of 75% wage subsidy
May: Lays off 20,000 workers. Blames $1 billion quarterly loss ..
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McKinley
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by McKinley »

timeflies wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:41 am CR pulling the trigger once again. what a guy. All the questions asked during the press conference today were about AC.

With Trudeau announcing that his govt will provide more help to airlines in order to go thru this pandemic , is it an early W for AC?

One thing’s for sure, JT won't have many choices, the pressure is on him.

--

Air Canada in 2020
February: Declares record $7.38 billion in cash reserves
March: Lays off 16,000 of 38,000 workers
April: Rehires 16,000 workers because of 75% wage subsidy
May: Lays off 20,000 workers. Blames $1 billion quarterly loss ..

You point to a systemic problem of corporate greed. ( which I resonate with) I fear, this crisis, like many will be used to further consolidate wealth at the top on the societal rung.

It’s scary times...
I do think this is shock and awe on AC’s part.. 20,000 people now on the government’s payroll is a frightening prospect ... then there’s the loss of benefits and pension...

Bailouts for the arts, oil and other things.
However, Aviation, ( a major economic engine) gets left in the dust.

I think Trudeau could be doing a hell of a lot more for aviation and other sectors.

Oh, let’s also not forget YOW chartering foreign carriers for repat flights while the Canadian aviation sector is in a coma and bordering on flatlining.
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aerodude
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by aerodude »

rudder wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:30 am CR is also placing a bet that JT does not want to see his TRZ puppy drowned (JT doesn’t care about TRZ but he does care about votes in La Belle Province).

Perhaps JT won’t blink. So be it.

But this “sunny ways” crap does not work when times are tough. Now it is the big leagues and actions (or lack thereof) have consequences.
I think the TRZ deal is dead. Why combined two bleeding operations. I think all airlines will stay separate and each get bailouts like the USA. There is zero incentive to merge at this point.
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TheRealPapaK
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by TheRealPapaK »

Unless your bail out is on the condition you merge with Transat.
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aerodude
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by aerodude »

TheRealPapaK wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 9:41 am Unless your bail out is on the condition you merge with Transat.
Yes, but bailing out each airline individually might be cheaper and allow TRZ and AC to remain afloat.

There is zero public support to hand money to AC just so they can buy another airline in this crisis, even in Quebec. The optics are just political craziness.
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Old fella
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Old fella »

rudder wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:30 am
Old fella wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:11 am
Some would suggest JT played the ball in his court quite very in that he blew deficit projections through the roof and well into orbit by helping as best as possible in an extraordinary challenging situation. I kinda doubt at this point in time CR is gonna intimidate The JT administration in any way. There is more to this unfortunate situation than seeing it through the Airline industry lens. Many more lenses are involved.
Disagree. But remember that CR does not care about the federal deficit, he cares about AC and its shareholders. And CR knows his way around YOW. Recall that is how he got his start in the AC portfolio.

By announcing the (thus far) largest single employer layoff in Canada as a result of the government mandated shutdown, AC is placing a marker on the table. JT (and perhaps BM) thought they could hide behind CEWS and LEEFF as the solution to having effectively closed a highly capital intensive industry. CR said not good enough.

CR is also placing a bet that JT does not want to see his TRZ puppy drowned (JT doesn’t care about TRZ but he does care about votes in La Belle Province).

Perhaps JT won’t blink. So be it.

But this “sunny ways” crap does not work when times are tough. Now it is the big leagues and actions (or lack thereof) have consequences.
CR probably doesn’t give a rats arse about the deficit, but he as well as the multi-million salaried industry executives will bitch about tax increases to pay for the deficit now in orbit. That you can be rest assured of. Been around a few years and I don’t recall the general public aka electorate shedding tears for Corporate shareholders and Executives. What they do understand is that whatever shakes out, good or bad, these same shareholders and top end people will be well looked after. I do stand to be corrected(and you emphasize that point) but I do not believe one Airline CEO is gonna push around Trudeau and his Government. As for TRZ, I am not in a position to comment as I like a good many others know very little, kinda like inside baseball. Cheers mate.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by dhc# »

Its all about Leverage...
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TheStig
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by TheStig »

The problem is that even a massive government handout doesn't bring anyone back to work in June. People aren't flying, if traffic volumes were half of what they were last summer I would be shocked. Airlines are looking at restructuring with a time frame of late Q4 to Q3 of 2021. Government assistance need to focus on allowing the industry to hit the ground running when the economy rebounds.

The message Canada's airlines need to be sending to Ottawa is, "take your foot off our throat." Use this pandemic to frame airlines as not only economic drivers but vital sovereign infrastructure. Maybe I'm biased but I simply don't understand the "greedy capitalist corporation" mantra, Air Canada is a publicly traded company that is majority owned by Canadians. Airlines in Canada need to be given equal footing to compete globally, airport rents, user pay security, monopolistic airport authorities and navigation service providers, and of course, the ACPPA need to be revisited. Singapore Airlines is a terrific example of an airline that is championed by its government and is a world leader.

Alas, the federal government seems content to simply handout money, don't get me wrong this epidemic will have long last effects on the global economy but I'm starting to question some of the (future) tax dollars being dished out. The extra $200 to everyone collecting OAS? $470M to the fishing industry, how does the fishing industry stack up to the airline industry? Lets not forget about the farmers request for $5 Billion!
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Old fella
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Old fella »

TheStig wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 11:40 am The problem is that even a massive government handout doesn't bring anyone back to work in June. People aren't flying, if traffic volumes were half of what they were last summer I would be shocked. Airlines are looking at restructuring with a time frame of late Q4 to Q3 of 2021. Government assistance need to focus on allowing the industry to hit the ground running when the economy rebounds.

The message Canada's airlines need to be sending to Ottawa is, "take your foot off our throat." Use this pandemic to frame airlines as not only economic drivers but vital sovereign infrastructure. Maybe I'm biased but I simply don't understand the "greedy capitalist corporation" mantra, Air Canada is a publicly traded company that is majority owned by Canadians. Airlines in Canada need to be given equal footing to compete globally, airport rents, user pay security, monopolistic airport authorities and navigation service providers, and of course, the ACPPA need to be revisited. Singapore Airlines is a terrific example of an airline that is championed by its government and is a world leader.

Alas, the federal government seems content to simply handout money, don't get me wrong this epidemic will have long last effects on the global economy but I'm starting to question some of the (future) tax dollars being dished out. The extra $200 to everyone collecting OAS? $470M to the fishing industry, how does the fishing industry stack up to the airline industry? Lets not forget about the farmers request for $5 Billion!
Reasonable points. Some could argue fishing/farming = food and Airline Flying = leisure so pick where the best bang for those multi billions go. I have a sneaky suspicion where the arrow would point.
Sectors such as forestry/resource/mining/manufacturing/auto/service/leisure et al would throw arguments back at your airline sector, perhaps with some affect with the “leisure” theme I don’t know. I do agree with you on the one sum lump payment of $300 to those like me collecting the CPP and old age security along with a private pension source(DB) and RRSP
Put that money elsewhere where needed, makes no difference to me. I will take the money and spend it locally to support a small business. Cheers mate.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by timeflies »

Honestly this a greedy move by AC and very much Shameful. I understand it’s business but even business has its limit. There is limit to hunger.

AC is not the only airline in Canada, what about WJ?

You have 7 billion in the bank and you are threatening (that is the correct term) to lay off 20K of your employees for more ? There is something I don’t get and if somebody got an answer for me please let me know.

People are tired to see in the news: AC has laid off 16K AC has re hired 16K AC will layoff 20k, what’s next ?

There is people with mortgages, families, sickeness, debts etc and Air Canada is basically telling Trudeau: if you don’t give me money screw my employees even though you’re already paying them(CEWS) which is more than EI. And even 200$ more than CERB is important in these times. we all know the feds created the CEWS only to have less people on unemployment yet they want to take advantage of it.

Smh.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by altiplano »

timeflies wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:31 pm Honestly this a greedy move by AC and very much Shameful. I understand it’s business but even business has its limit. There is limit to hunger.

AC is not the only airline in Canada, what about WJ?

You have 7 billion in the bank and you are threatening (that is the correct term) to lay off 20K of your employees for more ? There is something I don’t get and if somebody got an answer for me please let me know.

People are tired to see in the news: AC has laid off 16K AC has re hired 16K AC will layoff 20k, what’s next ?

There is people with mortgages, families, sickeness, debts etc and Air Canada is basically telling Trudeau: if you don’t give me money screw my employees even though you’re already paying them(CEWS) which is more than EI. And even 200$ more than CERB is important in these times. we all know the feds created the CEWS only to have less people on unemployment yet they want to take advantage of it.

Smh.
If there isn't a job though what are you going to do? Furloughs at airlines - and in all businesses - during the hard and slow times are nothing new. You mention WJ, didn't they already lay off a significant portion also? Didn't Sunwing and Transat and Porter lay off almost everyone?

I'm sorry to see it and hope it's short lived... my day on the chopping block may come yet also. But it is what it is - a job, not charity, and if there's no work that's the way it goes.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by '97 Tercel »

Airlines in Canada need to be given equal footing to compete globally, airport rents, user pay security, monopolistic airport authorities and navigation service providers, and of course, the ACPPA need to be revisited.

I think that's spot on
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

altiplano wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:53 pm Didn't Sunwing and Transat and Porter lay off almost everyone?
Sunwing did lay off everyone, except we’re all still on CEWS. In Air Canada’s case, they’re taking everyone off CEWS and those employees have to go on the EI line. That’s a significant difference in pay every week.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by brooks »

altiplano wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:53 pm
If there isn't a job though what are you going to do? Furloughs at airlines - and in all businesses - during the hard and slow times are nothing new. You mention WJ, didn't they already lay off a significant portion also? Didn't Sunwing and Transat and Porter lay off almost everyone?

I'm sorry to see it and hope it's short lived... my day on the chopping block may come yet also. But it is what it is - a job, not charity, and if there's no work that's the way it goes.
[/quote]

They laid off or early-retired half of their workforce over a month a go. WJ/ONEX doesn't mess around.
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ayseven
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by ayseven »

I agree with those saying it is business business; it is not sustainable right now, and people have to move on. When it picks up, deal with that when it happens. Any employee is basically powerless; otherwise they would be managers, not employees. Why take all that on anyways? I want to go flying too, but I have to just be patient. Live for today, plan for tomorrow. There is no simple answer.
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by palebird »

The entire global aviation world was/is just one huge ponzi scheme. Been involved in it for many years. Air Canada was more than willing to jump right in and play the game. If it does not make economic sense to the layman then there is something seriously wrong. That has been the story for many years. And now it has fallen on it's sword. This aviation world that you thought you knew is done. It never made sense to fly people for less than any other mode of transport over the same route and expect the business model to continue "forever". If you cannot/could not see that well it is a shame. And yes, it is hard to survive in this world without getting onboard with everyone else. But it does not mean you have to believe it all and bet it all on red, so to speak. As with everything in life, it all comes to an end. Time for something new. I would not be sitting around waiting for somebody to rescue you. That boat is probably not coming.
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ayseven
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by ayseven »

I disagree. Sure margins are small in airlines, but that doesn't mean it wasn't paying off for a lot of them. There are and have always been exceptions. Ward comes to mind. Then again he sold out and did OK I think. His family is still in the game. Things go up and things go down. Now if you want to discuss personal debt, totally encouraged by banks, that is a completely different subject. That is unsustainable.
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