The Return to Normal?

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palebird
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by palebird »

No disrespect but I don't think you have ever been involved in the details of financing an airline. It is smoke and mirrors.
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Tdicommuter
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Tdicommuter »

Palebird,

Air Canada is a Ponzi scheme? That statement makes no sense at all. First because Ponzi schemes are illegal investment ventures where you sell the promise of high returns, however never sell anything of any worth. The scheme requires individuals to go out and recruit other investors who in turn feed money up the pyramid to the top. An airline is not organized even close to that. Were that true, pilots ( and every other working group) would be recruiting one another, taking payment directly from that recruit, then require that recruit to sell tickets on said airline in order for them to collect payment. In effect Air Canada would be run like Amway, Avon, or Mary Kay. Airlines clearly are not operated that way in any way shape or form.

Your other statement regarding smoke and mirrors concerning why people fly as opposed to other modes of transport. You are overlooking a commodity that people highly value, and that is time. Sure I could drive from Toronto to Edmonton quite easily, but I get a finite amount of time off and were I to drive my time will be wasted. Therefore I will spend money to recoup my time. If other modes of transportation operated more efficiently with respect to time then you would likely see a shift in what is more popular. I don't think that boats will overtake planes as a preferred method to go on southern vacation.

Finally your post almost shows an air of someone who actually knows first hand a smoking gun exists. You have done nothing to actually provide any sort of credibility to yourself in any way. I will not speculate as to who you are, or why you post like that but to quote yourself... No disrespect but you do not seem like you are involved in financing an airline.
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RRJetPilot
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by RRJetPilot »

There was so much wrong with what he wrote I just assumed he was trolling. I didn't even know where to start. Glad you took the time to respond.

"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." -- George Carlin
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ayseven
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by ayseven »

We need George Carlin.
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alkaseltzer
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by alkaseltzer »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 8:42 pm
altiplano wrote: Sat May 16, 2020 6:53 pm Didn't Sunwing and Transat and Porter lay off almost everyone?
Sunwing did lay off everyone, except we’re all still on CEWS. In Air Canada’s case, they’re taking everyone off CEWS and those employees have to go on the EI line. That’s a significant difference in pay every week.
Unifor and ALPA are the grown ups in the Canadian airline unions. Something for everyone. And they got it. They represented their members. Higher paying and lower paying member dues, it was an EQUITABLE APPROACH.
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RedAndWhiteBaron
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by RedAndWhiteBaron »

ayseven wrote: Mon May 18, 2020 8:45 pm We need George Carlin.
+1

His comedy gave me no small comfort when cancer took my mother. I have no doubt he would have been one of the few great comedians who could find truth and humour in all this.

May he rest in peace.
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rxl
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Re: The Return to Normal?

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jp7500
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by jp7500 »

palebird wrote: Sun May 17, 2020 11:13 am The entire global aviation world was/is just one huge ponzi scheme. Been involved in it for many years. Air Canada was more than willing to jump right in and play the game. If it does not make economic sense to the layman then there is something seriously wrong. That has been the story for many years. And now it has fallen on it's sword. This aviation world that you thought you knew is done. It never made sense to fly people for less than any other mode of transport over the same route and expect the business model to continue "forever". If you cannot/could not see that well it is a shame. And yes, it is hard to survive in this world without getting onboard with everyone else. But it does not mean you have to believe it all and bet it all on red, so to speak. As with everything in life, it all comes to an end. Time for something new. I would not be sitting around waiting for somebody to rescue you. That boat is probably not coming.
+1 I agree totally:)
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Big Pistons Forever
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

You don’t get what you deserve you get what you negotiate. CR is a very good negotiator.....
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skytramp2800
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by skytramp2800 »

Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come. I get called in on occasion to do critical flights in the Beaver, for beer money. An amazing young man, chief pilot, 23 years old, hired me to do some flying for the company last summer, and left last winter to get the coveted multi/IFR will now have his career stunted for years to come. He is young enough, and just plain bloody well smart enough, and... a really nice guy... will do fine in the end.

However, all I have to do is cruise my five log books to see where all the recessions since the 70’s put a hole in my pockets. None of this past history can ever come close to what is about to happen. So, although retired, (sort of) I really do feel for you all. Another young man, brand new to the game, is back on the farm. ( God only knows how the farming industry will do)

Stay positive, stay focussed, just keep looking into the sky, and you will succeed. As for those who say “woe is me”, well perhaps it is time to consider something else.

As well, all the bells and whistles and little blinking lights in your go fast air conditioned turbo twin will never come close to a pre-GPS cruise along the coast, or across the barrens, with only your thumb on the map to tell you where you are. THAT’S flying.
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Sharklasers
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Sharklasers »

skytramp2800 wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come. I get called in on occasion to do critical flights in the Beaver, for beer money. An amazing young man, chief pilot, 23 years old, hired me to do some flying for the company last summer, and left last winter to get the coveted multi/IFR will now have his career stunted for years to come. He is young enough, and just plain bloody well smart enough, and... a really nice guy... will do fine in the end.

However, all I have to do is cruise my five log books to see where all the recessions since the 70’s put a hole in my pockets. None of this past history can ever come close to what is about to happen. So, although retired, (sort of) I really do feel for you all. Another young man, brand new to the game, is back on the farm. ( God only knows how the farming industry will do)

Stay positive, stay focussed, just keep looking into the sky, and you will succeed. As for those who say “woe is me”, well perhaps it is time to consider something else.

As well, all the bells and whistles and little blinking lights in your go fast air conditioned turbo twin will never come close to a pre-GPS cruise along the coast, or across the barrens, with only your thumb on the map to tell you where you are. THAT’S flying.

Ok boomer....
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'97 Tercel
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by '97 Tercel »

:roll:

thats so 7 months ago

#keepitalive###

##hashtagsarecooltoo###
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skytramp2800
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by skytramp2800 »

So what’s your point , millie??
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by dhc# »

Grounded travellers call on government to force airlines to issue refunds for cancelled flights.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadi ... _734_29889
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flying4dollars
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by flying4dollars »

skytramp2800 wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.
Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol
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GoHomeLeg
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by GoHomeLeg »

flying4dollars wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 6:05 pm
skytramp2800 wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.
Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol
I agree. I think the Canadian economy will bounce back quicker than the United States. We have better safety nets in Canada. Like you said, if their isn't another crippling out break people will start traveling again. The vagaboner lifestyle is strong and people are just itching to go somewhere. Once they lift restrictions, patio season and travel will be in full effect.
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2R
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by 2R »

Anyone planning a trip to Wuhan for some bat soup ?
Must be as good as that Blowfish sushi.
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Fanblade
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Fanblade »

flying4dollars wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 6:05 pm
skytramp2800 wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 10:34 am Sorry to have to break it to y’all, things are not going to be back to normal anytime soon. When it does, all the big boy toys are going to be “flown” by some 40 year old guy/gal using MS Flight Sim in his or her mommy’s basement. (All “contract” workers, no benefits, nada, nimini, nyet,)
My bad. I really have a horrible feeling as to how this is going to decimate flying jobs for years to come.
Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this. Sure, in the beginning there was fear, no thanks to the media (surprise surprise). But now, months later, people are restless and want to get back to living. As people have mentioned, air travel wasn't a super spreader and I think new protocols will eventually make people feel better about air travel. Sure, with the unemployment, there will be fewer, more frugal travelers. Once borders open up, people will be fully ready to get out of the house and see friends, family and get back to leisure travel. If the second wave is controllable and manageable, people will drop their guards even more and we will see an exponential rise in passenger traffic. I'm not saying it will happen in a couple of months, but as long as no second or third debilitating outbreaks don't cripple us to the point where we have to close things down again, the world will recover, along with the economy, and aviation is an economy driver.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol
I agree with you on public sentiment and the desire to get out and travel.

The likely hole in your argument is the 14 day quarantine after returning to Canada. Tam has stated this is to remain in effect as part of Canada’s best practice strategy. A second wave will extent this strategy. Other countries are also doing the same. That means quarantine at both ends.

So long as quarantine is in effect no one is leaving our boarders.

Even interprovincial non essential travel is still not supposed to be happening until phase 3 of most reopening plans.

Assuming a second wave the travel industry as a whole has just started into this current reality. A return to normal can’t be envisioned until quarantine practice ends. That may still be a year out.

I hope not. But like I said there is no chance of normalcy until quarantine practices end not just here but around the globe.
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shimmydampner
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by shimmydampner »

flying4dollars wrote: Fri May 22, 2020 6:05 pm Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol
With all due respect, and considering I know nothing about you and your personal situation, this sounds like an opinion from the perspective of a person with a good income, strong personal finances and a job to still go to. I agree with you that people don't WANT their way of life changed, but very few people are fortunate enough to have a choice. Most North Americans were in a precarious financial position before this all happened. For years now in Canada experts and analysts have been sounding the warning about our personal debt levels, which on average are about 50% more than our annual income before tax. I read an article recently suggesting that in the US, the poverty rate could increase by 50%. How many people were living paycheck to paycheck before unemployment suddenly skyrocketed? A huge number of the middle class are likely to find themselves in real financial trouble. And if you think that for some reason Canada is immune or will recover more quickly, RSM issued a report last month that forecasted that Canada's economic recovery will be more slow than that of the US due to a number of factors.
As a person with no non-mortgage debt and still gainfully employed, making multiple times more than the average Canadian, it would be very easy for me to sit here, viewing this topic through only that lens and find myself unable to imagine why people wouldn't travel in the absence of covid. Unfortunately though, I think covid is going to have long term, devastating effects on huge numbers of the lower middle class. Selfishly, I want air travel to return to pre covid levels immediately as it benefits all pilots, even those not employed by airlines. But I'm not so sure that it will, and I'm not so sure that it would even be a good thing if it did. I mean, I hope people will take this as a wakeup call to not live beyond their means. But hey, they obviously didn't bother before, so maybe they will not have learned. You may end up correct after all.
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Big Pistons Forever
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Re: The Return to Normal?

Post by Big Pistons Forever »

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.
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