The Return to Normal?

[2R]

Jazz may go big on cargo soon , easy money .
They have the advantage of lots of crew and they already fly to most places that need lots of cargo

[truedude]

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.

You also have to take into account that this was fairly close to the merger of five regional airlines, which created significant overlap and redundancies. So it isn't quite the same.

Someone further up mentioned the 14 day quarantine and something Tam said. She has a history of saying on thing, and then doing something else. The mistake here is to believe there is actually some grand strategy that is being followed, and they will execute it step by step. The government, like the airlines, are literally making this up day by day. We are a global community, and our economies are intertwined. Finding a way to allow cross boarder travel is essential to returning to economic health, and I highly doubt we will wait until maybe a vaccine is available at some future date. This may be in the form of air bridges, testing when you arrive, or who knows what else.

Insurance may become a more problematic area, but how much money are they losing by people not purchasing travel insurance. I am sure they have a couple PhD's in mathematics crunching the numbers to determine the risk in insuring most individuals. Again, this is not a deadly to the vast majority of individuals.

Will it be a 100% the same. No, but it will move quicker than most people think.

[Big Pistons Forever]

After 9/11 Jazz did not hire for almost 5 years. 5 year gaps in hiring seems remarkably consistent after major downturns. This downturn is an order of magnitude worse so it would seem reasonable to expect the same or worse.

You also have to take into account that this was fairly close to the merger of five regional airlines, which created significant overlap and redundancies. So it isn't quite the same.

Will it be a 100% the same. No, but it will move quicker than most people think.

You are right it is not same but both the 1983 and 1992 downturns resulted in about 5 years of lost hiring.

The current situation is unprecedented so your guess is as good as mine but it is IMO never wise to ignore history.

In any case, as always hope for the best but plan for the worst.

[flying4dollars]

I agree with you on public sentiment and the desire to get out and travel.

The likely hole in your argument is the 14 day quarantine after returning to Canada. Tam has stated this is to remain in effect as part of Canada’s best practice strategy. A second wave will extent this strategy. Other countries are also doing the same. That means quarantine at both ends.

So long as quarantine is in effect no one is leaving our boarders.

Even interprovincial non essential travel is still not supposed to be happening until phase 3 of most reopening plans.

Assuming a second wave the travel industry as a whole has just started into this current reality. A return to normal can’t be envisioned until quarantine practice ends. That may still be a year out.

I hope not. But like I said there is no chance of normalcy until quarantine practices end not just here but around the globe.

Yes you are absolutely correct, I did not factor that in as that will play a role. I suppose it will also largely depend on other country's restrictions as well. But I do still believe it will not deter the willingness for people to want to travel again by air. It may delay it, but not deter, and those restrictions will slowly be lifted. When, will be dependant on the severity, or lack of, a second wave etc. But yes you brought up a great point about the isolation period.

Sorry but I disagree. Most people won't want their way of life changed over this.

Actually, to that extent I'm not fully disagreeing, but I do think there will be a stronger and quicker recovery than people think. I hope for everyone's sake, I'm right. lol

With all due respect, and considering I know nothing about you and your personal situation, this sounds like an opinion from the perspective of a person with a good income, strong personal finances and a job to still go to. I agree with you that people don't WANT their way of life changed, but very few people are fortunate enough to have a choice. Most North Americans were in a precarious financial position before this all happened. For years now in Canada experts and analysts have been sounding the warning about our personal debt levels, which on average are about 50% more than our annual income before tax. I read an article recently suggesting that in the US, the poverty rate could increase by 50%. How many people were living paycheck to paycheck before unemployment suddenly skyrocketed? A huge number of the middle class are likely to find themselves in real financial trouble. And if you think that for some reason Canada is immune or will recover more quickly, RSM issued a report last month that forecasted that Canada's economic recovery will be more slow than that of the US due to a number of factors.
As a person with no non-mortgage debt and still gainfully employed, making multiple times more than the average Canadian, it would be very easy for me to sit here, viewing this topic through only that lens and find myself unable to imagine why people wouldn't travel in the absence of covid. Unfortunately though, I think covid is going to have long term, devastating effects on huge numbers of the lower middle class. Selfishly, I want air travel to return to pre covid levels immediately as it benefits all pilots, even those not employed by airlines. But I'm not so sure that it will, and I'm not so sure that it would even be a good thing if it did. I mean, I hope people will take this as a wakeup call to not live beyond their means. But hey, they obviously didn't bother before, so maybe they will not have learned. You may end up correct after all.

Yes shimmy thats a good point, however a big reason for people to go into debt has to do with simply being able to justify spending money and paying it back later. I think there will be a lot of people who will justify going into their credit to travel once again for want of getting away from where they have had to be isolated to. But still a very good point and you're correct, while I'm in an ok position financially, I do know a fair amount who aren't, including many in my condo building who are jobless. What has resonated with me about our elevator chats etc is how they all make comments that when everything opens, they are getting out of dodge and flying off to here or there. I was a bit surprised. I also think there are still a more than enough people who can afford to travel regardless and will certainly do so.

[rudder]

You are right it is not same but both the 1983 and 1992 downturns resulted in about 5 years of lost hiring.

The current situation is unprecedented so your guess is as good as mine but it is IMO never wise to ignore history.

In any case, as always hope for the best but plan for the worst.

Hiring cycles were:

1973-1974
1978-1980
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2008
2010-2020

Avg break between cycles was 4-5 years and for the most part coincided with recession in the economic cycle.

The last decade been an anomaly. Hopefully the length of this recession will be an anomaly as well.

[mixturerich]

I think people saying it’s going to be a quick recovery are ignoring all the CEO’s, economists, and scientists saying it’s going to be a U-shaped recovery. Which means slow.

Has anyone reputable expressed any optimism for a V-shaped economic recovery? If anyone has please let us know.

Given the transmission rate of the virus, I don’t really believe a fast recovery is even possible, no matter what you do.

[RippleRock]

This recovery, or not, will be driven by our Governments response. Full stop. Six months of this virus has given us enough knowledge to formulate a plan that DOESN"T continue locking down the healthy. The healthy and young are not at risk. Yes they can absolutely spread it, but if those they spread it to are also healthy, the life-risk is minimal, barely worse than the Flu or common cold for most. Tru-dumb needs to get his head out of his rear and stop hiding behind Tam, who changes her mind regularly.

There is enough statistical data to show who is most affected, and why. If the Government and the Media continue to spread fear to the healthy, things will continue as is. If the focus is shifted to isolating and securing the elderly (mostly in long term care facilities), the vulnerable (diabetics, lung disease patients or those with other underlying illnesses that could be exacerbated by Covid) and allow the rest of us to continue on with our lives, things will get back to a relatively normal state. We would develop a degree of herd immunity until a vaccine is available---if it ever is. There is no reason why a couple in their 20's 30's or 40's, with or without children, couldn't travel unrestricted, anywhere. They should fear nothing.

Humanity has survived just fine over the last 100,000 years. We have evolved as a species over an extremely protracted time to fight off infection and develop a complex system of fighting viruses. It took until 2019 to change course ---180 degrees--- and lock down the healthy. We don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving long term if we fight Mother Nature's plan for developing AND maintaining a strong "species wide" immune system. Head out with a mask and gloves, spewing Purell everywhere if it makes you feel better, but you had better know that you will be sicker than a dog for months when you stop. Don't screw with your immune system. It needs daily exercise, just like you do.

If you're religious, your God will ensure you get Covid or not as he pleases, you will have no say.

[truedude]

I think people saying it’s going to be a quick recovery are ignoring all the CEO’s, economists, and scientists saying it’s going to be a U-shaped recovery. Which means slow.

Has anyone reputable expressed any optimism for a V-shaped economic recovery? If anyone has please let us know.

Given the transmission rate of the virus, I don’t really believe a fast recovery is even possible, no matter what you do.

When I say quick recovery, I don't mean full recovery. I mean, a hell of a lot better than 25% of normal capacity. Yes, we caused enormous self inflicted economic damage. To me, this is insane. I don't think we will be back to crazy hiring anytime soon; but I would love to see all those laid off back in a flight deck sooner than later, and I think traffic will recover quicker than the worst case scenarios that have been presented. Maybe I am wrong. Some days it feels that way. But others, it is obvious people are sick and tired of all this.

[red 5]

Well said ripple rock

[RippleRock]

My biggest worry affecting recovery is that "herd immunity" is our only guaranteed saviour. We NEED this virus to run through the population to attain it. Social distancing prevents natural transmission slowing naturally attained herd immunity and is absolutely crushing our economic engine.

So what is the gameplan??? Social distance until a vaccine arrives? It may never come, so the current economic plan has an unlimited social "bill", and is unending??

That isn't remotely realistic. That isn't a plan.

[daedalusx]

My biggest worry affecting recovery is that "herd immunity" is our only guaranteed saviour. We NEED this virus to run through the population to attain it. Social distancing prevents natural transmission slowing naturally attained herd immunity and is absolutely crushing our economic engine.

So what is the gameplan??? Social distance until a vaccine arrives? It may never come, so the current economic plan has an unlimited social "bill", and is unending??

That isn't remotely realistic. That isn't a plan.

You're right.
It's been 17 years and still no SARS vaccine on sight.
Not only the vaccine may never come - it also may never be truly effective, ie: the yearly flu vaccine.
Also rushing and pushing experimental drugs on a very diverse population ... has a risk of side effects and diminished immune response (Tamiflu fiasco, Polio vaccine causing paralysis in Africa, etc)

[Rockie]

The best plan would be to isolate all the morons, but that’s not possible either.

[altiplano]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

[Rockie]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.

[altiplano]

The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.

Suck it Rickie.

[dumbbell daddy]

This recovery, or not, will be driven by our Governments response. Full stop. Six months of this virus has given us enough knowledge to formulate a plan that DOESN"T continue locking down the healthy. The healthy and young are not at risk. Yes they can absolutely spread it, but if those they spread it to are also healthy, the life-risk is minimal, barely worse than the Flu or common cold for most. Tru-dumb needs to get his head out of his rear and stop hiding behind Tam, who changes her mind regularly.

There is enough statistical data to show who is most affected, and why. If the Government and the Media continue to spread fear to the healthy, things will continue as is. If the focus is shifted to isolating and securing the elderly (mostly in long term care facilities), the vulnerable (diabetics, lung disease patients or those with other underlying illnesses that could be exacerbated by Covid) and allow the rest of us to continue on with our lives, things will get back to a relatively normal state. We would develop a degree of herd immunity until a vaccine is available---if it ever is. There is no reason why a couple in their 20's 30's or 40's, with or without children, couldn't travel unrestricted, anywhere. They should fear nothing.

Humanity has survived just fine over the last 100,000 years. We have evolved as a species over an extremely protracted time to fight off infection and develop a complex system of fighting viruses. It took until 2019 to change course ---180 degrees--- and lock down the healthy. We don't have a snowballs chance in hell of surviving long term if we fight Mother Nature's plan for developing AND maintaining a strong "species wide" immune system. Head out with a mask and gloves, spewing Purell everywhere if it makes you feel better, but you had better know that you will be sicker than a dog for months when you stop. Don't screw with your immune system. It needs daily exercise, just like you do.

If you're religious, your God will ensure you get Covid or not as he pleases, you will have no say.

Great post!

[co-joe]

Hiring cycles were:

1973-1974
1978-1980
1985-1990
1995-2000
2005-2008
2010-2020

Avg break between cycles was 4-5 years and for the most part coincided with recession in the economic cycle.

The last decade been an anomaly. Hopefully the length of this recession will be an anomaly as well.

Just curious, how many of those cycles was the Air Canada family 1500 pilots short of a full roster prior to the end? I've really only been around for 2 almost 3 of those cycles and I can't ever remember the main driving force behind hiring in our industry (AC) being that short of pilots in my time. I still think that long forecasted "pilot shortage" was actually just beginning and when normal comes back we are going to need a boat load of people.

Or I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...

[Rockie]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1117509">1117509</a> time=<a href="tel:1590370107">1590370107</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=altiplano post_id=<a href="tel:1117495">1117495</a> time=<a href="tel:1590365190">1590365190</a> user_id=3052]
The scared and vulnerable should rush out and get vaccinated with experimental rushed to the market drugs ASAP.

The rest of us can move on with our lives...

Apparently hydroxychloroquine works. All the smartest people are taking it.
[/quote]

Suck it Rickie.
[/quote]

Haha. Come on, you have to admit you walked yourself right into it.

With the US, Russia and Brazil (the new epicentre...congrats) death tolls climbing and health care infrastructure collapsing don’t you think the evidence is already strongly against this herd immunity nonsense promoted by some people? Watch the next couple of months in these places to see why the plan floated by Ripplerock and others is not supported by professionals who actually know what they’re talking about. It is frightening how many people take pandemic advice from an internet troll who doesn’t even pretend to any relèvent qualifications.

But I do agree with you about hastily developed vaccines. I’d much rather wear a mask or stand a bit apart for the next year and a half than inject some rushed out cocktail from Trumpland. Little better than bleach as far as I’m concerned.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/beach-cro ... -1.5582697

[RippleRock]

Rockie, I've flown with you. I have had hours long conversations with you. I found you quite close minded and opinionated. From what I've read on here, you're no different.

Continue advocating this "total-lockdown" "social distancing" insanity if you wish, but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans. Few if any stand back and look at the big picture as it isn't their forte. The only exposure most have had to a Pandemic has been in second year "medical history 205". They are champions of the "zero deaths" concept which is totally unrealistic in a complex scenario that is presenting itself here.

History will be our biggest teacher. Hindsight will be 20/20, it always is. There are obviously huge errors being made that will be written about for decades. The most obvious of which will be the neglect in the early months in the long term care homes. They should have been the first isolated. The death toll would have been half if this was done. Someone needs to be held accountable.

Herd immunity, that us "internet trolls" are preaching has done us extremely well as a species for tens of thousands of years. It has got us through far, far worse over epocs of existance. Humanity is being extremely naïve in thinking that they are smarter than Mother Nature's "tried and true, herd immunity".

We are not advanced enough in the medical field to "redesign" and usurp natures way of taking care of its creatures genetic health and makeup. It's again naïve and arrogant to think otherwise. For that we will all pay. Rockie, go ahead and advocate JT's "spastic" inconsistent and directionless reactionary shutdown, and the spewing of massive amounts of tax dollars at the problem. Until he and his Provincial counterparts find a positive, definite exit strategy that doesn't include locking down healthy people with perfectly functioning immune systems and continues an undefined course hoping for a "Miracle vaccine", this "closed-for-business police state" will continue on it's mad course toward economic ruin. We aren't that far off at this rate.

[goldeneagle]

but remember most Medical Professionals are just "auto mechanics" for humans.

Pretty sure most of those medical professionals would suggest an airline pilot is just a glorified bus driver....