Hilroy wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 5:22 am
Which is stupid. In no time I will accept furlough while those measures aren’t in place. Now that the shortage is over for years, they need to apply the duty regs now.
I agree there is no logistical reason not to accept these rules. I would love to keep as many of us working as possible. It would obviously be granted for economic reasons to help a battered industry.
What's your plan for not accepting a furlough? What power to prevent this do you hold, maybe the rest of us can use it too?
Hilroy wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 5:22 am
Which is stupid. In no time I will accept furlough while those measures aren’t in place. Now that the shortage is over for years, they need to apply the duty regs now.
That's actually a great point. There is no way ACPA should agree with extending the Duty Reg timeline to save the Corp a few bucks. The savings would be miniscule.
- EMB190 are all out at this time.(beginning of May)
- CEO said 319s and 767 will be out in time...... so not tomorrow not necessarily next week....but in time.....
Next equipment bid will surely reflect the removal of those 79 planes. Do not forget that 19-04 was showing a need of over 800 pilots. With the current announcement of laying off 600 pilots. You techically have slashed close to 1500 pilot positions on paper. Now to know what the value of each position has for the company.....that is the question!
Squid wrote: ↑Sun May 03, 2020 8:43 pm
My guess is we will be between 3200-3400 size pilot group
What is the pilot total now? 79 airplanes is a lot. I know some new ones are coming but this is really bad. Won’t be any hiring for a few years.
4500. Keep in mind there has been early retirements. I could see the list ending around 35-3700. Doh 2018.
Right now public information is net -41 aircraft. No timeline for fleet reductions other than -14 190’s immediately. +24 MAX and +14 220 during 2020. AC has removed forward looking fleet charts from the MD&A report (that includes Express).
WB fleet is operating bare minimum international with 4 777/ 4 330 on converted freight duty. Some 787 doing freight on non-converted basis as well. Forecast 150 flights per week. AC made it clear no interest in permanent cargo conversion aircraft or dedicated cargo fleet post-COVID.
Mainline WB to pick up Rouge WB international as Rouge 767’s parked.
Whatever all of that looks like in a reduction bid is anybody’s guess. I guess AC pilots will find out in next 24-48 hours.
dhc# wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 4:26 am
Based on this news, how much more downsizing can be expected at AC Express going forward?
There was no future fleet plan provided in the Management Discussion and Analysts. Which is unusual. The 79 fins getting parked are just the sum of aircraft that are older. IOW it appears like that is the number solely for the sake of having to show something.
My read is they don’t know what the fleet will look like moving forward.
dhc# wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 4:26 am
Based on this news, how much more downsizing can be expected at AC Express going forward?
There was no future fleet plan provided in the Management Discussion and Analysts. Which is unusual. The 79 fins getting parked are just the sum of aircraft that are older. IOW it appears like that is the number solely for the sake of having to show something.
My read is they don’t know what the fleet will look like moving forward.
The Fleet Plan was the first thing I looked for too. Interesting.
dhc# wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 4:26 am
Based on this news, how much more downsizing can be expected at AC Express going forward?
There was no future fleet plan provided in the Management Discussion and Analysts. Which is unusual. The 79 fins getting parked are just the sum of aircraft that are older. IOW it appears like that is the number solely for the sake of having to show something.
My read is they don’t know what the fleet will look like moving forward.
Not to turn this in to an Express thread but..... the theme at AC is to exit older owned aircraft first. I would expect to see the same theme at Express when the dust settles.
I don’t think a lot of you are understanding the cash burn rate or the major shit the industry is in as a whole. AC only requires about 300 pilots right now. You should be talking about avoiding CCAA rather then duty regs.
whipline wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:17 am
I don’t think a lot of you are understanding the cash burn rate or the major shit the industry is in as a whole. AC only requires about 300 pilots right now. You should be talking about avoiding CCAA rather then duty regs.
The industry will recover, yes next months are going to be dirty but it doesn't change the fact that Canada still has some of the worst duty regs.
whipline wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 8:17 am
I don’t think a lot of you are understanding the cash burn rate or the major shit the industry is in as a whole. AC only requires about 300 pilots right now. You should be talking about avoiding CCAA rather then duty regs.
neophyte wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 1:33 pm
On the call today it was stated that AC has access to just over $6 Billion.
They gave a few different #s for cash burn but $20 Million was the median.
6 billion/ 20 million per day = 300 days of cash to operate.
And the CFO said that the cash floor was around $2.5B.
Know what you do when you hit $2.5B? Find more cash via secured debt, unsecured debt, asset sale, equity issue.
So, the answer is not 300 days. Potentially more, but in all likelihood less. Once you run out of options to generate cash you proceed to CCAA with cash in the bank, not with the bank account at zero.
neophyte wrote: ↑Mon May 04, 2020 1:33 pm
On the call today it was stated that AC has access to just over $6 Billion.
They gave a few different #s for cash burn but $20 Million was the median.
6 billion/ 20 million per day = 300 days of cash to operate.
In the question and answer section Rousseau explained the numbers further. Net of credit draw down the cash burn is about 2 million a day. Essentially liquidity is dropping at 2 million a day and debt increasing at 20 million a day.
He also stated that number is the bottom. There is almost zero revenue currently. As the economy opens the cash burn will slowly shrink.
Of interest 1/2 of the 79 aircraft being parked are being back filled with A220/737. The remainder are 767 and are not being back filled.
Over a decade, CR created and implemented a business plan that doubled revenues. The majority of that revenue growth was derived from international expansion. The WB fleet and utilization expanded dramatically. The NB fleet was expanded to feed greater numbers of connecting passengers in to the domestic overseas hubs from both Canada but increasingly from the US. And this resulted in a greater than doubling of the pilot population. Over 2000 pilots hired since 2015.
And now the consensus is that the COVID event will have the most dramatic impact on international/intercontinental passenger travel leaving AC greatly exposed. This was confirmed by yesterday’s announcement in terms of forecast travel recovery pattern and timeline. But the net reduction of airframes did not factor in what will happen with the WB fleet.
It was pointed out that some mainline WB capacity will be deployed to replace the retiring Rouge 767 fleet. But with no announcement of any fleet reductions in 777/787/330 fleets the unanswered question will be utilization. The utilization rate will directly impact pilot staffing requirements.
US legacy carriers are estimating that their overseas operations will be last to recover. Most seem to be setting pilot staffing plans based on summer 2021 (example is the recently announced UAL displacement bid). Consensus estimates are 70-80% of 2019 capacity. Several of the US carriers have the benefit of dramatic age 65 retirement rates over the next 4 years. UA is lowest at just 1500. DL closer to 3400. Even with early retirements at AA it will be another 3000+. AC is only in the hundreds.
It will be interesting to see where the AC staffing forecast goes. Huge growth leaves AC exposed to potential significant contraction.
