No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

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newlygrounded
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by newlygrounded »

Savage Poetry wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 5:53 am Returning over the next couple of years ? Lol
What is your expectation?
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Savage Poetry
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by Savage Poetry »

newlygrounded wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 11:24 am
Savage Poetry wrote: Mon Nov 01, 2021 5:53 am Returning over the next couple of years ? Lol
What is your expectation?
All 600 back by Jan 1st 2023 and then go straight to hiring.
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TheStig
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by TheStig »

The best way to predict how many pilots AC is going to require is by looking at how many airplanes it plans to fly. The airline has just released its Q3 results and in the MD&A there is a fleet plan included. AC plans on operating 228 aircraft as of December 31, 2022. 83 wide bodies, 106 ML narrow bodies, and 39 airbuses at rouge. Interestingly there is 1 additional 787-9 being added.

In December 2019 the fleet was 252 aircraft, with 105 WB & 147 NB. In December 2018 there were 237, 99 WB & 138 NB. As of December 2017 the fleet was 224, 97 WB & 127 NB. So the airline is planning to have roughly the same size fleet at the end of 2022 as it had in 2017. Of course there are some differences, mainly, augmentation and duty limitations which would require more pilots. However, the fleet will have more narrow bodies and fewer wide bodies (which require more pilots for augmentation). This either indicates that the airline doesn't foresee as much demand in overseas markets or (hopefully) is going to be placing a wide body, or possibly an A321XLR order, to replace the 30+ retired 767's as air travel recovers.

To crew for the 224 aircraft fleet AC required just over 3700 pilots, roughly 16.5 pilots/aircraft. With a forecasted requirement of 4900 pilots for a projected fleet of over 260 aircraft, which would have equalled about 19 pilots/aircraft. Obviously a crude guesstimation, to operate a planned fleet of 228 aircraft gives a range between 3800-4200 pilots. Looking at other variables 4000 is probably an accurate total and based on that I would guess that all furloughs will have recall notices prior to the summer of 2022.
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rudder
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by rudder »

TheStig wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:50 am The best way to predict how many pilots AC is going to require is by looking at how many airplanes it plans to fly. The airline has just released its Q3 results and in the MD&A there is a fleet plan included. AC plans on operating 228 aircraft as of December 31, 2022. 83 wide bodies, 106 ML narrow bodies, and 39 airbuses at rouge. Interestingly there is 1 additional 787-9 being added.

In December 2019 the fleet was 252 aircraft, with 105 WB & 147 NB. In December 2018 there were 237, 99 WB & 138 NB. As of December 2017 the fleet was 224, 97 WB & 127 NB. So the airline is planning to have roughly the same size fleet at the end of 2022 as it had in 2017. Of course there are some differences, mainly, augmentation and duty limitations which would require more pilots. However, the fleet will have more narrow bodies and fewer wide bodies (which require more pilots for augmentation). This either indicates that the airline doesn't foresee as much demand in overseas markets or (hopefully) is going to be placing a wide body, or possibly an A321XLR order, to replace the 30+ retired 767's as air travel recovers.

To crew for the 224 aircraft fleet AC required just over 3700 pilots, roughly 16.5 pilots/aircraft. With a forecasted requirement of 4900 pilots for a projected fleet of over 260 aircraft, which would have equalled about 19 pilots/aircraft. Obviously a crude guesstimation, to operate a planned fleet of 228 aircraft gives a range between 3800-4200 pilots. Looking at other variables 4000 is probably an accurate total and based on that I would guess that all furloughs will have recall notices prior to the summer of 2022.
Another factor is utilization rate.

Pre-COVID, the AC operating fleet was ‘fully’ utilized. It may be the case in 2022 that some fleets are fully utilized (i.e. A220/737MAX) while other fleets - particularly owned aircraft - are still below 100% utilization rate.

Regardless, if your staffing forecast is accurate AC may be looking at OTS/flow through hiring by Q4 2022/Q1 2023.
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altiplano
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by altiplano »

I think those are good estimates, my concern on the timeline is training capacity.

The big 20-01 reduction bid really set us backwards on this, they still haven't cleared that backlog out. So they'll be needing to add positions while they still haven't finished training the people they reduced, then the RIRs will get exercised, up-bid will happen, and we'll start all over again.

They should have held steady rather than layoff, negotiated short term paid LOAs in positions, paid CEWs, etc. to park people and wait for the recovery...

They should have made LCC767 the new Cargo 767, then it would just be recall, recurrent training, and go... there were guys forced off the L767 that did a new course, checked out, and never flew a full block month in their new seat before they were back on course for the C767... what a waste... 2 courses pissed into the wind, not to mention the person they displaced, and the person that person displaced, etc.. But they needed that 10% wage cut...

This management team triggered thousands of courses down, now thousands of courses are needed to go back up... They better get one big bid out next month and chart the right course if they have a hope of catching up and getting our guys back.
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BTD
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by BTD »

In addition to the 1 787 showing in the fleet plan, there is this note in the MD & A

Air Canada exercised options for the purchase of three Boeing 787-9 aircraft which are scheduled to be delivered in 2022 and in 2023. The table in section 7.8 “Contractual Obligations” contains the additional three Boeing 787-9 aircraft.

Up 3 787s down one 777 from pre covid. Obviously down a bunch of rouge 767s, but contractually those were considered narrow body.
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asleep_at_the_yoke
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by asleep_at_the_yoke »

Yeah it's actually three 787s. I heard they were white tails and we're getting them all in the Spring, not over 2022/2023. We are not crewed for 40 737s, or the amount of Rouge they plan to run this winter. This bid will be an expansion bid, I'm sure of it. Can't wait to see the clusterfuck that will be the training plan with all the reinstatement rights being exercised.
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by BTD »

asleep_at_the_yoke wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 11:38 am Yeah it's actually three 787s. I heard they were white tails and we're getting them all in the Spring, not over 2022/2023. We are not crewed for 40 737s, or the amount of Rouge they plan to run this winter. This bid will be an expansion bid, I'm sure of it. Can't wait to see the clusterfuck that will be the training plan with all the reinstatement rights being exercised.
Maybe, but my above is a direct quote out of the management discussion and analysis section of the quarterly results. Can be found at aircanada.com investor relations. Although traditionally it tends to be conservative.
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by Lt. Daniel Kaffee »

The CMSC Bid will be coming out today (02-Nov-21) and it is large.
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asleep_at_the_yoke
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by asleep_at_the_yoke »

Lt. Daniel Kaffee wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 2:20 pm The CMSC Bid will be coming out today (02-Nov-21) and it is large.
I'm hearing the same.
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by Lt. Daniel Kaffee »

It's out...
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vrefplus5
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by vrefplus5 »

All recalled + 118 OTS?
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iflyroads
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by iflyroads »

vrefplus5 wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 4:13 pm All recalled + 118 OTS?
Flow through as well from jazz
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QKZXKV
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by QKZXKV »

WOW, what awesome news for all of us! Congrats to everyone. :mrgreen:
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rudder
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by rudder »

TheStig wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:50 am
To crew for the 224 aircraft fleet AC required just over 3700 pilots, roughly 16.5 pilots/aircraft. With a forecasted requirement of 4900 pilots for a projected fleet of over 260 aircraft, which would have equalled about 19 pilots/aircraft. Obviously a crude guesstimation, to operate a planned fleet of 228 aircraft gives a range between 3800-4200 pilots. Looking at other variables 4000 is probably an accurate total and based on that I would guess that all furloughs will have recall notices prior to the summer of 2022.
4026. Good guess!
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RippleRock
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by RippleRock »

A warm welcome back to all the furloughs. One thing.....

STAY MAD. ACPA treated you like garbage while you were gone and you know it.

Kick ACPA to the curb, and demand proper representation that respects governance, accountability and the Constitution. And especially --ALL-- Members furloughed or not.

Take on a new direction for yourselves, and kick out all the ACPA "old guard" that have been languishing on displacement, doing nothing but giving your future away for pittance.

Get involved, and stay involved.
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Last edited by RippleRock on Tue Nov 02, 2021 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
dissent
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by dissent »

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Last edited by dissent on Wed Apr 27, 2022 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
asleep_at_the_yoke
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by asleep_at_the_yoke »

QKZXKV wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 5:04 pm WOW, what awesome news for all of us! Congrats to everyone. :mrgreen:
Congrats? You get a recall notice already?
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NotDirty!
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by NotDirty! »

Vacancies does not equal immediate recalls. So while there are enough vacancies to recall all furloughs, plus add some new hires, remember the bid is supposed to be forward looking 12 months. So it may take some time to get everyone back on property. For reference, bid 21-02 which closed August 26 showed 301 vacancies, but only has resulted in 102 recalls, and that took until October.

So while this is positive news, the congratulations may be somewhat premature. It’s all nice on paper, but it doesn’t really mean anything until bums are in seats at V1.
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asleep_at_the_yoke
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Re: No pilot recalls until Spring 2023???

Post by asleep_at_the_yoke »

NotDirty! wrote: Tue Nov 02, 2021 7:02 pm Vacancies does not equal immediate recalls. So while there are enough vacancies to recall all furloughs, plus add some new hires, remember the bid is supposed to be forward looking 12 months. So it may take some time to get everyone back on property. For reference, bid 21-02 which closed August 26 showed 301 vacancies, but only has resulted in 102 recalls, and that took until October.

So while this is positive news, the congratulations may be somewhat premature. It’s all nice on paper, but it doesn’t really mean anything until bums are in seats at V1.
☝🏼
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