Gloom & Doom Q2 outlook...are you kidding?

[Transonic]

Having listened in on the analysts call this morning, about the only strategy that would in their eyes boost the stock price at the moment is reduced capacity, reduced costs (less aircraft and workforce needed to service reduced capacity) and increased margin on a smaller market.

Hey aerobod, I know you know where almost all of our 2018 growth is, Swoop. The pilots would love nothing more than to see Swoop disappear, as do the investors.

[KAG]

Not sure why at every airline I have worked at, Pilots think they are all at the top of turd island and should always get top dollar and be looked at as the highest level as of everyone in the company. Tough sh!t. Put your head down and do your job. You don’t like it, Go else where. You want to turn WJ into AC, f-ck that. Go to big red. You are a pilot...... a freak’n sky bus driver. Hit your switches and shut your mouth. You are wrecking our company and you are a pilot. A stick jockey. Pull up and be quiet. L@sers! Go picket in your little bitty b!tch pilot hats.

Spoken like someone who wants to be a pilot but never made it. Look at it this way, if you have a bad day at work what happens? If I have a bad day I've made CNN and possibly hundreds killed. Hundreds of millions in liability.

[aerobod]

Having listened in on the analysts call this morning, about the only strategy that would in their eyes boost the stock price at the moment is reduced capacity, reduced costs (less aircraft and workforce needed to service reduced capacity) and increased margin on a smaller market.

Hey aerobod, I know you know where almost all of our 2018 growth is, Swoop. The pilots would love nothing more than to see Swoop disappear, as do the investors.

Amy savvy airline investor knows that a properly structured ULCC is where the profit is - Ryanair and Spirit are consistently the most profitable airlines in the world, with Frontier re-structured as a ULCC and getting back into a strong profit position after it's near death experience being squeezed by the Legacy and ULCC carriers at the same time (it used to be very much a WestJet like low cost carrier of a similar size back in 2008 when their business models were similar).

The question is how can Swoop become a properly structured ULCC? In my opinion it should have been completely separate publicly traded company from WestJet, with perhaps WestJet being the main investor. If Swoop isn't successful, the time is right for another ULCC to be successful in Canada, mainly due to the fact that Bill Franke seems to think so and will likely end up deploying some of the 430 A320 Neo aircraft order he has placed for ULCC operations around the world into Canada, when he has picked the right partner.

For those of you who have not seen it, reading and understanding this presentation and it's relevance to WestJet's future is important, if you want to understand why Swoop exists: https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-web/d ... or-day.pdf

PS, anyone spot the photo-shopped tails of the wrong brand?

[TheWingNut]

Just to throw my two cents in to this conversation - I have been a long time reader of this forum but this particular thread finally decided to make me register and comment - so here we go...

The airline industry has shifted a lot in the past 10 years. ULCC's are doing their best to take away market share from the legacy carriers and create a niche market. I am sure you can all agree to that point. However, as pilot wages have "normalized" to some extent because we have "let them", companies have caught on to the "love of aviation" pilots have and are capitalizing on this.

To explain, WestJet as always, in my eyes, been the one company that has always treated their pilots wonderfully - until recently. Enter Encore. WestJet found a way to enter in to the regional market by offering very low wages to the regional guys because people will work for that money and wanted to work for "WestJet". No different than the Georgian guys. This model works because we all allow it to work, meaning; that if you are not going to work for $31,000 per year - or what ever it is - there are 15 other guys that will. They will work for that because they love aviation!!! Then this "Swoop" - behind the backs of the rank and file lifeline of the company (pilots) is VERY dirty poker on the part of WestJet. At first, I thought that this was a negotiating tactic on the part of WestJet, but this looks to be the real deal.

This to me, is the company capitalizing on the pilots love of aviation and devaluation of their worth by agreeing to work for this money. I hope that makes sense. In short, we, as pilots, have devalued our own worth. We have done this to ourselves through no fault of our own. Each one of us has our own reasons for accepting sub-optimal pay. It could be because of family, because of the need to build time or simply because there were no other options for work. If we want to fix this industry once and for all, then we ALL - every freaking one of us - needs to stick together - refuse crap pay - crap conditions. At that point, where there is no pilot left in the line, the companies will have NO CHOICE but to improve working conditions and pay. This is a pipe dream but it needs to become the reality.

Remember airline travel is not a right, it is a privilege. A privilege offered to those that can afford it. If the company needs to raise ticket prices to keep its employees around and the light on - so be it. Those that cant afford to travel by air...well....I heard Greyhound has some good fares!!!

[Mach1]

This IS ALREADY happening in various industries with corporations targeting different segments of the industry with different companies, Loblaws and No Frills; Metro and Food Basics; Canadian Tire...the list goes on. WestJet is doing the same to close the back door to its market share because otherwise they feel other airlines like Flair, Jetlines, etc. will erode their market share...It's like adding another company for that segment of the market while still growing the current company and making it really international, etc. That's their plan...

I have no problem with Swoop as a business model, nor the "closing" of any back doors. I have a problem with them paying slightly more than half my wage to do the exact same job on the exact same plane... not a similar plane, not the same brand of plane but the actual same plane being flown today by WJ pilots sporting new paint.

As for the other ULCC carriers, they seem to be able to pay their pilots, why can't WJ? What is so special about that ONE labour group's wages? I am quite certain No Frills; Metro and Food Basics; Canadian Tire all have separate management and support systems. I am very certain it was not just one group who had to give up everything while the others cruised on by untouched.

[fish4life]

Having listened in on the analysts call this morning, about the only strategy that would in their eyes boost the stock price at the moment is reduced capacity, reduced costs (less aircraft and workforce needed to service reduced capacity) and increased margin on a smaller market.

Hey aerobod, I know you know where almost all of our 2018 growth is, Swoop. The pilots would love nothing more than to see Swoop disappear, as do the investors.

Amy savvy airline investor knows that a properly structured ULCC is where the profit is - Ryanair and Spirit are consistently the most profitable airlines in the world, with Frontier re-structured as a ULCC and getting back into a strong profit position after it's near death experience being squeezed by the Legacy and ULCC carriers at the same time (it used to be very much a WestJet like low cost carrier of a similar size back in 2008 when their business models were similar).

The question is how can Swoop become a properly structured ULCC? In my opinion it should have been completely separate publicly traded company from WestJet, with perhaps WestJet being the main investor. If Swoop isn't successful, the time is right for another ULCC to be successful in Canada, mainly due to the fact that Bill Franke seems to think so and will likely end up deploying some of the 430 A320 Neo aircraft order he has placed for ULCC operations around the world into Canada, when he has picked the right partner.

For those of you who have not seen it, reading and understanding this presentation and it's relevance to WestJet's future is important, if you want to understand why Swoop exists: https://www.westjet.com/assets/wj-web/d ... or-day.pdf

PS, anyone spot the photo-shopped tails of the wrong brand?

I don’t think any WJ pilots would have a problem with Spirit’s wages

[Canadianjetpilot]

Not sure why at every airline I have worked at, Pilots think they are all at the top of turd island and should always get top dollar and be looked at as the highest level as of everyone in the company. Tough sh!t. Put your head down and do your job. You don’t like it, Go else where. You want to turn WJ into AC, f-ck that. Go to big red. You are a pilot...... a freak’n sky bus driver. Hit your switches and shut your mouth. You are wrecking our company and you are a pilot. A stick jockey. Pull up and be quiet. L@sers! Go picket in your little bitty b!tch pilot hats.

Spoken like someone who wants to be a pilot but never made it. Look at it this way, if you have a bad day at work what happens? If I have a bad day I've made CNN and possibly hundreds killed. Hundreds of millions in liability.

Spoken like someone who has never been directly responsible for 170 peoples lives.

I think about that 170 every take-off and every landing. Men, women, children and babies - all of whom are MY responsibility.

Oh and if a bus loses a wheel, or has a window pop out or the engine quits/blows up the consequences pale in comparison to it happening on a jetliner.

I suspect you'd be one those people who if facing your mortality on one of those "sky-bus" flights that happened to have something go wrong, you would soil your pants. Then once back on the ground you'd be thanking the "sky-bus" crew that just saved your unthankful a**.

[Red1]

I have a problem with the Swoop business model and so does the investment community. I mean your stock doesn't drop two dollars in a day because of a bunch of pilots, it does so because the investment community goes WTF. You talk about a pilot shortage, how about a leadership shortage. We are burning cash to start a ULCC and chase after the business market all at the same time, we have no real plan and that's scary. You know how a company fails, when leaders fail. Well we are about to find out really quickly how many of the balls in the air are about to drop. What has this leadership team successfully launched in the last few years... oh yeah nothing. And here we are trying to introduce a low cost carrier, a wide body program, a new premium product as well as mange the Max, Encore oh yes and the pilots.... too many balls, some will drop, I just hope its not the big ball. Swoop is a waste of resources. Want to fight the ULCC's try a ULCC fair not a whole separate airline. The analysts have picked up on this. Management can't deliver on its promises, its missed target after target always placing the blame somewhere else, bad economy in Alberta, Fuel, Pilots.. take a look in the mirror. The investment community has lost faith, and I don't blame them.

Ben Cherniavsky: I still don’t understand the abrupt change in management without any revision to the strategy. Your stocks down 10% today, down the 20 bucks, which is where it was first reached. I’m looking at long-term chart back in 2004. I mean, you guys keep moving forward with these targets that you miss, and telling us that you’re just going to double down. I mean, I don’t -- I think people are -- there is a credibility gap here that’s building. And I think that’s the elephant in the room that someone needs to address.

[rookiepilot]

I have a problem with the Swoop business model and so does the investment community. I mean your stock doesn't drop two dollars in a day because of a bunch of pilots, it does so because the investment community goes WTF. You talk about a pilot shortage, how about a leadership shortage. We are burning cash to start a ULCC and chase after the business market all at the same time, we have no real plan and that's scary. You know how a company fails, when leaders fail. Well we are about to find out really quickly how many of the balls in the air are about to drop. What has this leadership team successfully launched in the last few years... oh yeah nothing. And here we are trying to introduce a low cost carrier, a wide body program, a new premium product as well as mange the Max, Encore oh yes and the pilots.... too many balls, some will drop, I just hope its not the big ball. Swoop is a waste of resources. Want to fight the ULCC's try a ULCC fair not a whole separate airline. The analysts have picked up on this. Management can't deliver on its promises, its missed target after target always placing the blame somewhere else, bad economy in Alberta, Fuel, Pilots.. take a look in the mirror. The investment community has lost faith, and I don't blame them.

Ben Cherniavsky: I still don’t understand the abrupt change in management without any revision to the strategy. Your stocks down 10% today, down the 20 bucks, which is where it was first reached. I’m looking at long-term chart back in 2004. I mean, you guys keep moving forward with these targets that you miss, and telling us that you’re just going to double down. I mean, I don’t -- I think people are -- there is a credibility gap here that’s building. And I think that’s the elephant in the room that someone needs to address.

Agree with this. Vision seems very confused.

I would not touch the stock.

[Mach1]

I have a problem with the Swoop business model and so does the investment community. I mean your stock doesn't drop two dollars in a day because of a bunch of pilots, it does so because the investment community goes WTF. You talk about a pilot shortage, how about a leadership shortage. We are burning cash to start a ULCC and chase after the business market all at the same time, we have no real plan and that's scary. You know how a company fails, when leaders fail. Well we are about to find out really quickly how many of the balls in the air are about to drop. What has this leadership team successfully launched in the last few years... oh yeah nothing. And here we are trying to introduce a low cost carrier, a wide body program, a new premium product as well as mange the Max, Encore oh yes and the pilots.... too many balls, some will drop, I just hope its not the big ball. Swoop is a waste of resources. Want to fight the ULCC's try a ULCC fair not a whole separate airline. The analysts have picked up on this. Management can't deliver on its promises, its missed target after target always placing the blame somewhere else, bad economy in Alberta, Fuel, Pilots.. take a look in the mirror. The investment community has lost faith, and I don't blame them.

Ben Cherniavsky: I still don’t understand the abrupt change in management without any revision to the strategy. Your stocks down 10% today, down the 20 bucks, which is where it was first reached. I’m looking at long-term chart back in 2004. I mean, you guys keep moving forward with these targets that you miss, and telling us that you’re just going to double down. I mean, I don’t -- I think people are -- there is a credibility gap here that’s building. And I think that’s the elephant in the room that someone needs to address.

Nothing you've said here is incorrect.

Interestingly, this is a similar situation that existed when SD left the company and was replaced by GS. The statement at the time was that we had too many unfinished projects on the go and none of them were getting done because of it. Now we find ourselves in the same situation but at a larger scale.

[cloak]

Firstly comparing grocery store chains to airlines is quite a leap but if you must go there, I don't believe the employees at No Frills make 40% less than their undoubtedly underpaid counterparts at Loblaws...

Some one mentioned this may "have implications for all labour in Canada" and my point was that this approach already exists in many industries. You may think that airlines are above the rest, but corporate law does not. Not exactly sure how much, but in fact there is quite a bit of difference in compensation between Loblaws and No Frills, just as there is quite a bit of difference in their products. In fact, this example is quite similar to Swoop and WestJet. There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

[pigboat]

Firstly comparing grocery store chains to airlines is quite a leap but if you must go there, I don't believe the employees at No Frills make 40% less than their undoubtedly underpaid counterparts at Loblaws...

Some one mentioned this may "have implications for all labour in Canada" and my point was that this approach already exists in many industries. You may think that airlines are above the rest, but corporate law does not. Not exactly sure how much, but in fact there is quite a bit of difference in compensation between Loblaws and No Frills, just as there is quite a bit of difference in their products. In fact, this example is quite similar to Swoop and WestJet. There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

Guess What.
When you take Aircraft out of one division and give them to ANOTHER WHOLLY OWNED Division : that is solid grounds for filling and WINNING a Common Employer filling. The first day that SWOOP goes flying then the UNION files for Common employer.................The Union will win this one hands down. Read your labor code.

[tbaylx]

Firstly comparing grocery store chains to airlines is quite a leap but if you must go there, I don't believe the employees at No Frills make 40% less than their undoubtedly underpaid counterparts at Loblaws...

Some one mentioned this may "have implications for all labour in Canada" and my point was that this approach already exists in many industries. You may think that airlines are above the rest, but corporate law does not. Not exactly sure how much, but in fact there is quite a bit of difference in compensation between Loblaws and No Frills, just as there is quite a bit of difference in their products. In fact, this example is quite similar to Swoop and WestJet. There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

Guess What.
When you take Aircraft out of one division and give them to ANOTHER WHOLLY OWNED Division : that is solid grounds for filling and WINNING a Common Employer filling. The first day that SWOOP goes flying then the UNION files for Common employer.................The Union will win this one hands down. Read your labor code.

If it's a slam dunk then ALPA would have applied for common employer on day 1. The CIRB has clearly ruled before that it's not enough for the two companies to be owned by the same parent to trigger common employer. It's not as black and white as you make it out and a common employer ruling is unlikely given previous case rulings (see bell expressvue for one example). There are employees on the property now, no need to wait until aircraft go flying if they want to file for common employer.

[lostaviator]

If it's a slam dunk then ALPA would have applied for common employer on day 1. The CIRB has clearly ruled before that it's not enough for the two companies to be owned by the same parent to trigger common employer. It's not as black and white as you make it out and a common employer ruling is unlikely given previous case rulings (see bell expressvue for one example). There are employees on the property now, no need to wait until aircraft go flying if they want to file for common employer.

I'd encourage you to reach out to a member of your LEC/MEC, or attend an update meeting. There is a reason for no filing of a common employer as of this time.

[complexintentions]

There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

This comment is instructive.

A great deal of the objection to Swoop appears based on the threat it poses to WestJet pilot career prospects. But career progression is not the same as being employed.

I think it will be easy for WestJet to show that Swoop won't cost jobs at WestJet - the lower cost structure itself supports the premise that they are targeting an entirely different market segment than mainline. Conversely, ALPA will have a much harder time trying to claim that Swoop will cost WestJet jobs. How do you prove a negative?

An FO whose upgrade is delayed is not the same as an FO who is laid off. As unpalatable as it sounds, WestJet's primary obligation as a corporation is not to advance the careers of its employees.

[Fanblade]

This is EXACTLY why you need scope language. Which WJ pilots have. They contractually own the work unless it is negotiated otherwise.

WJ pilots have shown no willingness to negotiate thier contractual right away. WJ’s only option now is a lockout to force a change.

That is not a viable solution for WJ. This is why Saretsky is gone. His plan. It failed. He died on it.

Make no mistake though. The WJ BOD was all behind the plan until it put them in a corner.

[LegalWeedKiller]

How long would a decision on common employer take from the CIRB?

1 year, 2 years?

All the while swoop is flying and expanding.

The time to end this fiasco is now!

[Boreas]

There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

This comment is instructive.

A great deal of the objection to Swoop appears based on the threat it poses to WestJet pilot career prospects. But career progression is not the same as being employed.

I think it will be easy for WestJet to show that Swoop won't cost jobs at WestJet - the lower cost structure itself supports the premise that they are targeting an entirely different market segment than mainline. Conversely, ALPA will have a much harder time trying to claim that Swoop will cost WestJet jobs. How do you prove a negative?

An FO whose upgrade is delayed is not the same as an FO who is laid off. As unpalatable as it sounds, WestJet's primary obligation as a corporation is not to advance the careers of its employees.

Pro-industry Canadian Labor laws can beat it. They need to change!

Corporations need to made profit, everyone gets that. WJ is certainly doing that. Unfortunately, the late-stage capitalist environment we're in requires corporations to do so regardless of the effect it has on its employees - either immediate and long term. Don't accept that! Your future is important!

If a corporation is willing to screw you over - long term or short term - screw it over first!

If it goes under, it goes under - we all know it won't happen in WJ's case. Another one will replace it. Work there. Unionize. Negotiate decent WAWCON. Strike if necessary!

[Flyingsquirrelsuck]

There is nothing stopping a corporation to start or acquire another company to serve a different segment of the market, especially if it benefits consumers. All the corporation has to do is to show no material job loss results in other segments (within reason). This does not include opportunities for growth. A corporation is under no obligation to provide growth opportunities for its staff indefinitely into the future. It may be considered good business, but not mandatory.

This comment is instructive.

A great deal of the objection to Swoop appears based on the threat it poses to WestJet pilot career prospects. But career progression is not the same as being employed.

I think it will be easy for WestJet to show that Swoop won't cost jobs at WestJet - the lower cost structure itself supports the premise that they are targeting an entirely different market segment than mainline. Conversely, ALPA will have a much harder time trying to claim that Swoop will cost WestJet jobs. How do you prove a negative?

An FO whose upgrade is delayed is not the same as an FO who is laid off. As unpalatable as it sounds, WestJet's primary obligation as a corporation is not to advance the careers of its employees.

No clue!!! I’m glad your not a pilot

[altiplano]

I think complex has a point, and he has it right how people will look at it.

Most arbitrators won't get it... you keep your position - "no job losses" - but you atrophy as a forever-FO while your mainline shrinks and the flying goes to B-scale...

Most on the outside of this industry won't see a problem with that. "You kept your job"...

That's why SCOPE it's so important. That's why you have to stop your flying from being transferred away in the first place... toothpaste back in the tube if you let it out...