2020 Hiring

[Babar350]

They dropped the 1000hrs multi crew...
So yeah, let’s do 2 years on a king air and jump in front of every Q pilots.

[seriousflyer]

The entire pilot market is going to get squeezed again as Jazz has published a bid with 30-40 vacancies for Captains for the first time in recent years.

Now with both Mainline operators and both regionals hiring at unprecedented levels, the next 24 months is a pilots dream and a recruiting challenge. All standards are being dropped to attract talent.

Flow and retention will be the main focus for operations management all while balancing safety and training.

Will be neat to watch over the next couple of years, I believe AC main retirement boom is complete in about 2-3 years.

[derateNO]

Will be neat to watch over the next couple of years, I believe AC main retirement boom is complete in about 2-3 years.

Not even close.

The wave won't end until 2030. And there will be another one in 2035-2040 many PML1.0 pilots start to reach retirement.

Air Canada not only has the oldest average age pilot group in North America by far, we have the 3rd highest new hire age as well. There have been studies about it done over the last number of years.

[seriousflyer]

Thbaks for replying.

The models and studies I read were completed in 2018. These studies modeled fleet and recruiting plan for AC as a plateau of 2020, 2021 numbers ~ 1000 new hires each year, then declining to ~ 200 new hires in 2025.

I read the average new hire at AC is 36, Westjet similar, that was based on 2016. I wonder what the average new hire is at both airlines.

[derateNO]

Thbaks for replying.

The models and studies I read were completed in 2018. These studies modeled fleet and recruiting plan for AC as a plateau of 2020, 2021 numbers ~ 1000 new hires each year, then declining to ~ 200 new hires in 2025.

I read the average new hire at AC is 36, Westjet similar, that was based on 2016. I wonder what the average new hire is at both airlines.

Yes, after the hiring wave is over to fill vacancies it will slow down but the retirement wave of 100-200 a year is not ending any time soon. We can't confuse the two.

The study I read was from 2015 and pegged AC's average new hire at 42. It's likely dropped a lot since then.

[TSAM]

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[George Taylor]

[quote=seriousflyer post_id=1105303 time=1582076325 user_id=31302
Flow and retention will be the main focus for operations management all while balancing safety and training.
[/quote]

WestJet has zero interest in a retention plan. Someone may chime in that isn't the case, but actions speak louder then words. There has been no action from the company to mend pilot relations.

[FlyingMonkey]

[quote=seriousflyer post_id=1105303 time=1582076325 user_id=31302
Flow and retention will be the main focus for operations management all while balancing safety and training.

WestJet has zero interest in a retention plan. Someone may chime in that isn't the case, but actions speak louder then words. There has been no action from the company to mend pilot relations.
[/quote]

I’m at Encore and have been for the last 4 years. Nothing has been presented to us to incentivize any of us to stay and flow to WJ. Presently there is flow through to WJ but its a trickle, Feb, March, April and May WJ ground schools will have a total of 16 Encore pilots flowing out of 128 available ground school spots. I understand we don’t have the Captains available to release any more than this, however the problem that is surfacing as a result of this lack of flow is just beginning.

With over 500 pilots at Encore a new hire can expect anywhere from 8-10 years at Encore before flowing to the 737. This could change but if we are looking at how many pilots they are flowing now, and this is a great hiring year for WJ, 8+ years is very realistic. What is unrealistic is the expectation for anyone to stay that long at the regional level given the current and foreseeable demand for pilots. I love Encore, it is still a great company to work for and the people here are great. However as a Captain with a young family at home I work 17-18 days a month and I’m burnt out. Maybe someone who is in there early 20’s and lives for work can handle 8 plus years of this, however I would wager this is unlikely. December saw the ratification of the PTA (one list returning) and that was great. But don’t be fooled, the one list is only relevant if there is real movement from Encore to WJ. Without that, it’s fools gold.

Everything in this industry is reactive and not proactive. I believe things will have to get worse before they get better in terms of WAWCON. But if Encore is going to survive, things will have to improve and the incentive to stay for nearly a decade before you see the jet will have to be worthwhile.

I know you asked about WJ’s plan to retain pilots, not Encore’s, so I apologize but I felt it was worth chiming in on since I believe the success of pilot retention at WJ and Encore are interconnected given the nature of the PTA.

[seriousflyer]

I understand your POV, but a couple of your statements are false.

There is incentive- REIP $14,400/year for 2 years if you flow to Westjet.
Also - you accrue senirorty on the list, not YOS, but senoeiry ahead of any OTS hires.

If you work at Jazz those two incentives dont exist.

Also- the union is working and proposing a significant pay structure change that will be arbitrated in April.

You sound like morale is low, which I get, but if you zoom out and evaluate the incentives, they do exist, maybe not enough tho.

[derateNO]

Yeah but if you work at Jazz you'll be there for two years and probably get hired at AC. And by year 5, the same as year 7/8 that someone is at Encore you'll be making $150k+ at AC.

I honestly have zero clue why anyone is even applying or wanting to work at Encore these days. Especially if you live in Vancouver. If there were required percentages for flow I could somewhat understand it but there really isn't. AC has basically hired more pilots from Jazz in the last half of 2019 than WJ has flowed from Encore since the beginning.

[kiaszceski]

I understand your POV, but a couple of your statements are false.

There is incentive- REIP $14,400/year for 2 years if you flow to Westjet.
Also - you accrue senirorty on the list, not YOS, but senoeiry ahead of any OTS hires.

If you work at Jazz those two incentives dont exist.

Also- the union is working and proposing a significant pay structure change that will be arbitrated in April.

You sound like morale is low, which I get, but if you zoom out and evaluate the incentives, they do exist, maybe not enough tho.

The REIP is something interesting now, but in 5 years we would have lost almost 10% because of not following the inflation.
There is lot of room for improvement, however it is up to Onex to do it, otherwise the 300 vacancies for OTS in AC this year will be quickly filled by Westjet/Encore/Swoop.

[seriousflyer]

Yes, would be nice to have everything indexed.

Onex - doesnt care. Its obvious. They have communicated zero to us.
Westjet mgmt still runs the show and following the strategic plan for WB growth.

[kiaszceski]

Yes, would be nice to have everything indexed.

Onex - doesnt care. Its obvious. They have communicated zero to us.
Westjet mgmt still runs the show and following the strategic plan for WB growth.

Well, I guess if they want to grow and become the so wanted Global Airline they will need to retain pilots and give them at least the same conditions as AC...

[derateNO]

Then we could maybe get into some pattern bargaining in Canada and see proper gains across the board.

[doiwannabeapilot]

Yes, would be nice to have everything indexed.

Onex - doesnt care. Its obvious. They have communicated zero to us.
Westjet mgmt still runs the show and following the strategic plan for WB growth.

don't forget about the plan for 30 Swoop tails by 2021

[derateNO]

Yes, would be nice to have everything indexed.

Onex - doesnt care. Its obvious. They have communicated zero to us.
Westjet mgmt still runs the show and following the strategic plan for WB growth.

don't forget about the plan for 30 Swoop tails by 2021

Perfect then everyone can fly around for $80k/yr in the left seat!

Congrats.

[Blue42]

Yes, would be nice to have everything indexed.

Onex - doesnt care. Its obvious. They have communicated zero to us.
Westjet mgmt still runs the show and following the strategic plan for WB growth.

don't forget about the plan for 30 Swoop tails by 2021

So far the only plan is to move the ten tails to Swoop, nothing else has been communicated or will be until the MAXs are back in service I’m guessing. The 30 tails at Swoop is the contractual limit that’s it for now.

As for ONEX communication, anyone that has dealt with them, or companies alike, know it’ll be a year before we really hear anything. Being a private company changes a lot of the communication avenues, of course that doesn’t stop the rumor mill.

[cloak]

As for "Onex plans", one can speculate as much as one wants, however, one needs to understand that elements of the collective agreement have already happened, and as it were in the stock market, are already priced in. In this context, Swoop already has 30 NB, some are yet to come. What they are and where they come from, is a matter of market forces, availability and time. Likewise, WB program has already happened up to 20 tails, and likely beyond, and small jets of up 50 have also happened. The Onex purchase was predicated on these elements. How exactly these will come to pass, is a matter of how they fit into the grand plan and subject to market forces, including MAX situation, A321 and A220 availability, etc. As for Swoop or any airline's wawcon, hopefully those interested would not base their decisions not ramblings on a forum!

[seriousflyer]

That is a weird post ^. You trying to sound like Yoda? A pilot must be one with the market force?

Alot of your post explains details that are simply not true or not true yet I suppose. You've made huge leaps in what you think is going to happen and what has actually been stated.

30 tails to Swoop? No details
20 WB? Not ordered yet.
Small jets? No imperial evidence.

Maybe you know someone at onex.

[derateNO]

Nothing is for sure until the tails are on the property, and painted. Even then.....