Will Westjet survive?

[brooks]

You’re missing the point Brooks.
As all of those companies are held privately through ONEX, people don’t know how big those companies are, what the sales are like, profit margins, assets, etc etc. They are buried beneath layers of funds and equity stakes.

Plenty of information in their 171 page annual report, for example p37 has a breakdown of revenue and cost of goods sold by Industry sector: https://www.onex.com/static-files/1088c ... 7d68b95d3a

Here is there q1 report https://www.onex.com/static-files/8778c ... 943b1976b3
What was WestJets revenue? Information not available
What was WestJets loss? Information not available

The only information provided is that WestJet is held by a fund that lost 111 million in q1.

The only point I’m trying to make is that the information is scarce. You’ll never see CCAA coming.

Of course the information is scarce, It is a private company now. You will unlikely see any financial details of WJ until years from now when ONEX takes it public again. For now that's the beauty of being a private company, unlike AC who will take a lot longer to recover than WJ IMHO.

[Mostly Harmless]

I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?

JT doesn’t hate Alberta

I'm sorry, but that is a false statement. JT absolutely hates Alberta. I will just leave you with his own words on the subject. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEyjgn6zD5Q

AC is here for the long game.

WJ is not.

Time will tell.

I’ll bet another 80 years on it.

I would like to know what you are basing that statement on?

Sure maybe. But I guarantee it won’t have WJ painted on it.

I would really like to know what you are basing this statement on? Apparently, you have information the rest of us do not and I think it would be irresponsible of you not to share with all these pilots who are planning their career choices. Tell us all how you are so certain of the future.

[rudder]

I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?

Any industry targeted government aid, if it ever comes, will not designate a single beneficiary. However, not all carriers are in the same financial condition nor will their recovery be in tandem. Different balance sheets, different business models, different fiduciary oversight.

Better questions for every CDN passenger air carrier are:

1. Will carrier XYZ file for CCCA?

2. If carrier XYZ files for CCAA, will it successfully restructure or liquidate?

Perform that survey for each passenger carrier. Assign odds. I do not think that a single passenger airline in Canada can say there is zero chance of a CCAA filing as a result of COVID depressed revenues. And for a carrier who’s business model is inconsistent with the COVID era travel demand or is highly leveraged that finds itself in CCAA, a successful refinancing and restructuring may not be an assured outcome.

[sstaurus]

I find it interesting that there is no "Will Air Canada Survive" thread or it's equivalent on the Air Canada Forum. It seems that they are in the same industry and face the same issues and challenges. Is it that all Canadians just expect and know that the government will bail out AC no matter what and have come to accept that as an acceptable use of their tax money?

JT doesn’t hate Alberta

I'm sorry, but that is a false statement. JT absolutely hates Alberta. I will just leave you with his own words on the subject. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vEyjgn6zD5Q

AC is here for the long game.

WJ is not.

Time will tell.

I’ll bet another 80 years on it.

I would like to know what you are basing that statement on?

Sure maybe. But I guarantee it won’t have WJ painted on it.

I would really like to know what you are basing this statement on? Apparently, you have information the rest of us do not and I think it would be irresponsible of you not to share with all these pilots who are planning their career choices. Tell us all how you are so certain of the future.

Because Hangry is a troll for AC. They can do no wrong.

[ayseven]

The real question should be: "how much legroom and armroom am I going to have now?" I think things are looking up!

[rudder]

The real question should be: "how much legroom and armroom am I going to have now?" I think things are looking up!

Guess how many airlines will survive at 50-66% load factor?

None.

[ayseven]

Yup, things are tough. And they get tougher when NOBODY wants to go flying somewhere...

[Hangry]

.

[Mostly Harmless]

I don't think any business starts out with planing to fail or shut down. I'm fairly certain Canadian Airlines would love to still be in business today.

I do think most companies seem to survive in-spite of themselves rather than because of themselves.

.

Here, have a Snickers

[Realitychex]

The real question should be: "how much legroom and armroom am I going to have now?" I think things are looking up!

Guess how many airlines will survive at 50-66% load factor?

None.

Depends what the yields are.

[Eric Janson]

The real question should be: "how much legroom and armroom am I going to have now?" I think things are looking up!

I wouldn't be so sure about that....

EU Airlines

- No Social Distancing (flights are full)
- Mandatory to wear Mask
- No cabin service

With a lack of direct flights people are resorting to all kinds of odd routings to get to their destinations.

And that's if you are even allowed on in the first place. I live in a different country than the country that issues my passport and I need to prove residency before I am allowed to travel home.

Been refused at check in twice so far - and I was travelling in uniform.

International travel is extremely difficult at the moment. High risk too without Social Distancing.

[indieadventurer]

Condolences to all the out station airport staff.

You have always been fantastic to us pilots (both wj and other company) as commuters and sorry to see it end this way.

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/ ... 87.article

[sstaurus]

If/when WJ comes out the other side of this, it will be a sad shell of it’s former self

[aerobod]

If/when WJ comes out the other side of this, it will be a sad shell of it’s former self

The same can be said for any airline in the world at the moment. WestJet is actually above the average airline in it's cash reserves as a portion of it's operating costs (as is Air Canada), based on it's last quarterly report before Onex took over, hence able to weather the pandemic better than the average airline without external funding.

[rudder]

The same can be said for any airline in the world at the moment. WestJet is actually above the average airline in it's cash reserves as a portion of it's operating costs (as is Air Canada), based on it's last quarterly report before Onex took over, hence able to weather the pandemic better than the average airline without external funding.

With no public guidance on WJ financials available since Q3 2019, and given likely cash run rates in Q1 and Q2 2020, there is no way to know for a fact what cash reserves are for WJ vs the industry. And given its status as a wholly owned subsidiary of ONEX, cash levels are likely being maintained at subsistence levels only.

[Jean-Pierre]

Sound like people are being fired and maybe re-hired at outsource contractor company. Pretty classic union busting on Onex part. chop chop

[RRJetPilot]

If/when WJ comes out the other side of this, it will be a sad shell of it’s former self

The same can be said for any airline in the world at the moment. WestJet is actually above the average airline in it's cash reserves as a portion of it's operating costs (as is Air Canada), based on it's last quarterly report before Onex took over, hence able to weather the pandemic better than the average airline without external funding.

So far no other airlines or company that Im aware of in Canada have fired their employees only to subcontract the work (the exact same job) to another company at a lower wage. At least he was nice enough to say the former Westjetters might have preferential treatment in applying for their old jobs at these new companies!
Lots of foreign pilots out there looking for work, wonder if Schwartzy is looking for new innovative ways to replace you as well.

[Yycjetdriver]

If/when WJ comes out the other side of this, it will be a sad shell of it’s former self

The same can be said for any airline in the world at the moment. WestJet is actually above the average airline in it's cash reserves as a portion of it's operating costs (as is Air Canada), based on it's last quarterly report before Onex took over, hence able to weather the pandemic better than the average airline without external funding.

So far no other airlines or company that Im aware of in Canada have fired their employees only to subcontract the work (the exact same job) to another company at a lower wage. At least he was nice enough to say the former Westjetters might have preferential treatment in applying for their old jobs at these new companies!
Lots of foreign pilots out there looking for work, wonder if Schwartzy is looking for new innovative ways to replace you as well.

I find it strange that every news article writing yesterday in regards to these 3333 job cuts called them “lay offs”. When searching Westjet in google news yesterday all but one called them layoffs, a later search and that one article was gone. This also came a day after they announced they wouldn’t be seeking an exemption to the labour code in regards to terminations......Classic Westjet.

[aerobod]

The same can be said for any airline in the world at the moment. WestJet is actually above the average airline in it's cash reserves as a portion of it's operating costs (as is Air Canada), based on it's last quarterly report before Onex took over, hence able to weather the pandemic better than the average airline without external funding.

With no public guidance on WJ financials available since Q3 2019, and given likely cash run rates in Q1 and Q2 2020, there is no way to know for a fact what cash reserves are for WJ vs the industry. And given its status as a wholly owned subsidiary of ONEX, cash levels are likely being maintained at subsistence levels only.

Revenue run-rates and costs before COVID-19 won't have changed substantially and the write-down guidance Onex gave in their financials wouldn't indicate any strange change in that way. Onex also has to keep the corporate finances separate for WestJet to meet both Canadian ownership reporting requirements and asset management reporting to enable eventual sale and also be compliant with the Onex public reporting needs. As with their other major assets with a lag, WestJet basic financials will appear in the Onex financials. They can't just take the cash out of the company and meet regulations or have a saleable asset in the future.

Airline CASM, RASM and proportioning of costs, booking curve profile, cash held in ticket pre-sales and other metrics are all fairly easy to predict for an airline with a given product and fleet profile, so whether public or private, not much info is needed to extrapolate the basic financials of an airline.

[rudder]

WJ cannot issue stock. WJ cannot sell debt. WJ can sign loans (with the concurrence of ONEX).

WJ is very dependent upon ONEX for maintaining cash reserves.