More WJ layoffs

[tsgas]

Like any corporation, it may own or lease aircraft, and it may own or lease facilities. I would hazard a guess that a large part of its perceived value would be the relationship it has with the WestJet corporation. How the entity is structured from an overall taxation standpoint and what is owns are things that you are not going to find out on a pilot forum as it is now a privately held organization.

But overall, it does have value.

Precisely! Selling Encore could actually unlock good value for Onex as it comes with steady revenue stream for new owners due to its relationship with WestJet. It would not be surprising at all to see that happen soon. If it weren't for ownership restrictions, it may have already been sold to an American company by now.

A disaster combined with a liberal government after 911 caused much turmoil in aviation industry, including demise of Canada 3000 due to liberals inaction, and ended to the benefit of Air Canada! Justin has been similarly and “liberally” unimpressive and unimaginative during this crisis. It seems all too familiar, although this time Onex does have an airline!

It would possibly be a fit for Porter Airlines.

[elite]

Possibly, whatever the case, Onex will likely want to have some control and exclusive access. Porter presumably has good cash reserves from its terminal sale and some recent loans too. The steady and guaranteed revenue all around the country would likely be very appealing to Porter just like long term deal for its terminal was to its new buyers. Onex could potentially consolidate Porter, Sunwing and flair with its existing 3 airlines to match Air Canada and its group.

[cloak]

Interesting. Apparently an ATR fleet made more financial sense for Encore at its inception, and whether it was the Alaskan roots, or the Rockies that tipped the scale for the Qs, a common fleet type makes integration with Porter more efficient. Maybe Onex can consolidate a real alternative choice for all Canadians across the country, after it survives this crisis!

[fish4life]

Just to clarify, you guys think the airline that has been losing money for almost a year and hasn’t spun a prop is going to buy the airline from the investment fund that has been making money through the whole pandemic?
A) why would Onex sell at a low price?
B) where would porter get the money to buy a company double it’s size?

[Longtimer]

If WestJet sold encore, I don't suspect there would be any value re the remaining relationship between Encore and WestJet unless it was a capacity agreement with guaranteed revenue to the new Encore. This being the case, why would WestJet sell and more importantly why would anyone buy Encore?

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

I forgot why I stopped checking AvCanada.

Encore is not getting sold off.

Onex is not acquiring Porter.

Canada is not devolving into a clone of the failed USSR state.

[tsgas]

I forgot why I stopped checking AvCanada.

Encore is not getting sold off.

Onex is not acquiring Porter.

Canada is not devolving into a clone of the failed USSR state.

That's one person's opinion and zero evidence .

[330heavy]

I forgot why I stopped checking AvCanada.

Encore is not getting sold off.

Onex is not acquiring Porter.

Canada is devolving into a clone of the failed USSR state.

FTFY

[Freeport_Flyer]

Honestly! It’s almost impossible to keep an AvCanada topic on course...

News of a reduction bid is in the air. Anyone have info of possible layoffs? Will there be bump downs into Encore / Swoop?

[airway]

I forgot why I stopped checking AvCanada.

Encore is not getting sold off.

Onex is not acquiring Porter.

Canada is not devolving into a clone of the failed USSR state.

Yes, those things seem unlikely, but I wouldn't be so sure about myself about any takeover/merger/failure of any Airline in Canada. We are usually out of the loop for all these secret negotiations between companies. Sometimes the companies never reveal that talks had ever taken place.

There was a time that it was unthinkable that Air Canada would buy Canadian.

Can't we have a little bit of fun speculating about this?






.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Honestly! It’s almost impossible to keep an AvCanada topic on course...

News of a reduction bid is in the air. Anyone have info of possible layoffs? Will there be bump downs into Encore / Swoop?

Layoffs are possible, but not likely.

Bump downs are inevitable if they do layoffs.

Swoop is poop.

But you’re going to have to take all of that with a grain of salt because apparently my opinions are just that.

[Cruiza]

Speculation........
....
2023.......... SWOOP- 120-130 TAILS......

2023..........WestJet 60-80 TAILS,,,,,,

2023...........if you thought WestJet pilots where unhappy in 2019...... you should see them in 2023....

“SWOOP IS POOP”? Yes you brave gladiators...... remember when there are recalls you should have the same “fcuk swoop” attitude and deny them.....
just act like when Swoop started and YOU-preached how anyone willing to work for them should be banned.....

Blacklist???????

Practice what you preached tough guys.....

[Cavalier44]

Speculation........
....
2023.......... SWOOP- 120-130 TAILS......

2023..........WestJet 60-80 TAILS,,,,,,

2023...........if you thought WestJet pilots where unhappy in 2019...... you should see them in 2023....

“SWOOP IS POOP”? Yes you brave gladiators...... remember when there are recalls you should have the same “fcuk swoop” attitude and deny them.....
just act like when Swoop started and YOU-preached how anyone willing to work for them should be banned.....

Blacklist???????

Practice what you preached tough guys.....

Dou really believe that an airline that is operating nine 737-800s, with one more on order, will seriously grow to a fleet of 120-130 tails in two years? Even if WestJet were to grow Swoop to compete with Flair or other ULCC market entrants, there likely isn't demand for 120-130 combined aircraft in the ULCC market in Canada, across all airlines - the population is simply too small and the destinations too few and far between. Notwithstanding the fact that we likely won't see a significant rebound of travel demand post-COVID until mid-2022 at the earliest, and the massive amounts of hiring and training it would entail to expand the fleet so rapidly.

You only have to look at Flair's recent order of 13 737 MAX 8s and their projected route additions as evidence of this. In the long run, will Swoop grow to match its main competitor? I would say that that is a certainty - but not to the order of magnitude that you're suggesting. WestJet will need huge amounts of feed to make its 787 operations viable - as long as Swoop and WestJet are treated as two different entities in terms of booking (no ability to book connecting flights), WestJet will need a sizable mainline/Encore operation in place to supply the connecting passengers.

[Curiousflyer]

Speculation........
....
2023.......... SWOOP- 120-130 TAILS......

2023..........WestJet 60-80 TAILS,,,,,,

2023...........if you thought WestJet pilots where unhappy in 2019...... you should see them in 2023....

“SWOOP IS POOP”? Yes you brave gladiators...... remember when there are recalls you should have the same “fcuk swoop” attitude and deny them.....
just act like when Swoop started and YOU-preached how anyone willing to work for them should be banned.....

Blacklist???????

Practice what you preached tough guys.....

Dou really believe that an airline that is operating nine 737-800s, with one more on order, will seriously grow to a fleet of 120-130 tails in two years? Even if WestJet were to grow Swoop to compete with Flair or other ULCC market entrants, there likely isn't demand for 120-130 combined aircraft in the ULCC market in Canada, across all airlines - the population is simply too small and the destinations too few and far between. Notwithstanding the fact that we likely won't see a significant rebound of travel demand post-COVID until mid-2022 at the earliest, and the massive amounts of hiring and training it would entail to expand the fleet so rapidly.

You only have to look at Flair's recent order of 13 737 MAX 8s and their projected route additions as evidence of this. In the long run, will Swoop grow to match its main competitor? I would say that that is a certainty - but not to the order of magnitude that you're suggesting. WestJet will need huge amounts of feed to make its 787 operations viable - as long as Swoop and WestJet are treated as two different entities in terms of booking (no ability to book connecting flights), WestJet will need a sizable mainline/Encore operation in place to supply the connecting passengers.

Wasn’t Swoop doing vacation travel last year? Its a tough sell to say only Swoop only does ULCC flying when it cannibalizes WJ routes.
So the point he’s making is Swoop taking over WJ flying dramatically, not Swoop growing in the ULCC market all on its own.
I think the 120 tails is unrealistic in that time frame, but I could certainly see 50-60 Swoop tails by 2023, likely some with WJ paint still on them.

[fish4life]

Isn’t there a scope clause ? How many tails are they limited to?

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Isn’t there a scope clause ? How many tails are they limited to?

People here are too stupid to think logically sometimes...

There is zero chance of Swoop taking over WS.

[Zaibatsu]

Continental didn’t take over Eastern Airlines, either.

If Swoop wasn’t a threat, nobody at WJ would care. But they are a threat.

[Yycjetdriver]

There are scope clauses for 30(I think) tails, but like everything else into the contract management will do whatever they please, let a grievance go to arbitration and most likely win that process while doing as they please for a significant amount of time in the interim.
Sims has said in many webinars their plan to reopen and ramp up while be centered around Swoop and the traveller looking for a deal. They will quickly ramp swoop up to max tails and probably eventually more. I personally feel as though in the future Swoop will be flying the majority of the North-South flights and low fare flight between select destinations. WestjetS focus will be flying mainly East-West routes and the Widebody operations wherever that may be.

[JBI]

Wasn’t Swoop doing vacation travel last year? Its a tough sell to say only Swoop only does ULCC flying when it cannibalizes WJ routes.
So the point he’s making is Swoop taking over WJ flying dramatically, not Swoop growing in the ULCC market all on its own.
I think the 120 tails is unrealistic in that time frame, but I could certainly see 50-60 Swoop tails by 2023, likely some with WJ paint still on them.

While I won't comment on the single post keyboard warrior's eloquent prose, a few things to keep in mind with regard to Swoop.

In Labour Relations, the time when an employer and a union are in open contract negotiations is the time where labour groups have the most sway as, after going through the proper process. Many of the frustrations of the pilot group right now are, to a certain extent, fruitless because any type of job action would be illegal. However, after specific time limits and cooling off periods have passed, then job action (whether pickets, work to rule, strike, not picking up Open Time etc.) is permitted.

The Company knows that right now we're not in open negotiations, but the WestJet CBA Expires December 31, 2022.

So, with those timelines, trying to predict what Swoop will look like in 2023 is meaningless. As a pilot group, would we care if Swoop had 100 tails if the pay and working conditions match or was very similar to mainline? Maybe, maybe not.

[elite]

Clearly encore folks continue to advocate for improvIng their fortunes in the WestJet group of companies, as they have done in the past. However the reality is that their fortunes may not coincide with others in the group and certainly not with the master plan of Onex which is to control a large airline in Canada with global reach and ultimately maximize the value of its investment.

To that end, selling encore to a third party and entering into a long term capacity purchase agreement, as is the case for most large airlines, will not only unlock its value at a time of reduced liquidity, but also divest its associated labour challenges and free it to focus on more pressing concerns. That would include salvaging or redirecting their joint venture with Delta, restarting their wide body expansion and growing the business to previous levels.

As for Swoop, it will definitely have a key role to lead the group’s recovery in preserving some of its previous market share from the likes of Flair and Sunwing, and other new comers. Higher pay and conditions that certain of their pilots seek, can only happen under the banner of a wide body expansion and it is best to align expectations with the reality of the market.