Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

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dukepoint
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by dukepoint »

goldeneagle wrote:
dukepoint wrote: Over a pilots entire Major Airline career, they would earn less than 3 million dollars. Until they develop a component that can interface flawlessly with all aircraft systems, and deal with EVERY contingency imaginable while airborne...... as good as or better than a human pilot........and price that component LESS than 3 million dollars (including the connection interface), this is a rediculous concept at best.
Recheck your math, because that single machine doesn't replace just one pilot, it replaces all of the crews on staff to keep one airframe airborne. In a high utilization operation, that's a dozen or more, and somewhat smaller numbers at a low utilization operation, but not likely to go below 6, ie 3 crews.
I'll re-check my math all week if you like. It's barely relevant in light of far larger issues.

Math isn't going to change the fact that single pilot airliners, nor pilotless ones for that matter, are even on a drafting table somewhere. They aren't because no one is dumb enough to spend development funding on a concept that will be an extremely hard sell to airlines. There is NO infrastructure even in the works yet. When driverless cars, and driverless trains are the norm, then I'll have another look. Remember that these operate in two-dimensions, over relatively small distances, and are less subject to weather phenomenon. Aircraft cover vast distances in three dimensions, and you cannot just stop it, get out and kick it if something goes amiss, like in the aforementioned.

Check the Boeing/Airbus customer database and name ONE Airline that would be willing to put in an order for a pilotless airliner. Economics dictates product development. There has to be a market first, which there isn't. It make this whole issue pointless to discuss. Come back in 15 years, and B&A will still be pumping out 787/A350 derivatives. With TWO pilot seats.

Bother someone else about pointless detail on a pointless debate. You will not likely fly on one in your lifetime, nor will I.

DP.
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AuxBatOn
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by AuxBatOn »

The end of pilots in a cockpit started 17 years ago when GPS was introduced in commercial aviation. Then we developped approaches based on GPS signal and now we have near-precision approaches. Combined that with LAAS and you'll soon be able to autoland on GPS approaches. Now, with CPDLC. We are this much closer: FMS can be fed through ATC datalink. I give it another 20-25 years before we see commercial airliners with no pilots.

There is nothing a pilot does in an airliner cockpit that a computer cannot do. And it even does it more efficiently and with no "judgement" errors: the computers knows its limits and will not bust them. And for the odd thing that the computer cannot do, you have a secure datalink to a flight center where someone takes control from the ground.
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by BE20 Driver »

Everything in aviation these days is done in small increments. Think of GPS roll out. First it was only used [legally] for enroute navigation. Then as an overlay approach. Then as a standalone non-precision approach. Finally a standalone precision approach.

Using a similar approach, until last week I could have envisioned moving to a single pilot airliner backed up by a live feed to a ground based operator. Over time roles would switch to the operator being in primary control backed up by a solitary pilot in the cockpit. Eventually, the single pilot would be phased out after proving the reliability of the system.

The Germanwings FO wanted for everyone to know his name and to change the system. Maybe in some perverse way, he will be known as the guy who prevented single pilot airline operations.
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fish4life
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by fish4life »

Based on the air canada crash in Halifax thread I gathered that some Air Canada airplanes don't even have GPS in them yet...... Aviation is slow to adapt
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palebird
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by palebird »

66 years


Yes I know who Ray Kurzweil is and I have read a lot of his material. I doubt if any of the naysayers here have even heard of him. Like I said ignore the future at your own peril.
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Ifly
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by Ifly »

All of this talk about gps and computers is irrelevant. Until they develop a system that will communicate with drone airliners that is 100% hacker proof and not going to fail when the solar flair hits us, there will always be a pilot on board. Even then, will the system run on Windows? Gives new meaning to the blue screen of death, don't you think?
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

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tbaylx
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by tbaylx »

Kinda hard to not ignore the future since no one really knows what its' going to be? Or should I quit and retrain as a drone computer programmer based upon an globe article? Not arguing that it's impossible, but I'm betting my career and my family's income on it being pretty unlikely in the next 15-20 years at the very least. As previously mentioned, someone will try it with a cargo aircraft first..once that happens it'll still take a decade before anyone moves it into passenger aircraft. There will be plenty of notice.
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Takeoff OK
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by Takeoff OK »

Ground station vulnerability, hackers, lack of interest from passengers, etc... This is not really a thing, nor will it be for quite a while. If you are concerned for the future of pilotage, then vote NO on your next TA, and then the next one, and the next one.

Think about it, even the NSA can't prevent all the cyber attacks they are subject to. Now we're going to pretend that some nickel-biting airline will be able to do it? Laughable.

Nothing to really see here. Move along.
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AuxBatOn
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by AuxBatOn »

Takeoff OK wrote:Ground station vulnerability, hackers, lack of interest from passengers, etc... This is not really a thing, nor will it be for quite a while. If you are concerned for the future of pilotage, then vote NO on your next TA, and then the next one, and the next one.

Think about it, even the NSA can't prevent all the cyber attacks they are subject to. Now we're going to pretend that some nickel-biting airline will be able to do it? Laughable.

Nothing to really see here. Move along.
Would locking yourself into a cockpit and crashing into a mountain range be considered a form of "hacking"?
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Takeoff OK
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by Takeoff OK »

Edited to quote some stupidity on the next reply...
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Last edited by Takeoff OK on Mon Mar 30, 2015 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Takeoff OK
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by Takeoff OK »

AuxBatOn wrote:
Takeoff OK wrote:Ground station vulnerability, hackers, lack of interest from passengers, etc... This is not really a thing, nor will it be for quite a while. If you are concerned for the future of pilotage, then vote NO on your next TA, and then the next one, and the next one.

Think about it, even the NSA can't prevent all the cyber attacks they are subject to. Now we're going to pretend that some nickel-biting airline will be able to do it? Laughable.

Nothing to really see here. Move along.
Would locking yourself into a cockpit and crashing into a mountain range be considered a form of "hacking"?
Why would it? I don't get your point. Are you just being obtuse for the hell of it?
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Last edited by Takeoff OK on Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
timel
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by timel »

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10152768657582686


Some people have to speak to those stupid journalists!
Why are we being dragged into mud like this?

What a load of crap.
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

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Flywest
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by Flywest »

It's always been my personal belief that Wendy Mesley is one of the most unbalanced and sensationalistic reporters at the CBC.....and that's saying something these days.

The CBC video that Timel posted a link to was one of the most perversely unbalanced 5 min of "news" I have watched in a long while. Shameful that it came from our public broadcaster.

The main source Dr. Cummings, while an experienced fighter pilot, has never flown a civilian airliner in her life. More importantly she has a vested interest in promoting automation since she is in the employ of the MIT Autonomy Labratory....hardly an unbiased opinion since the prospective future of automation pays her mortgage. A quick google search of some of her previous quotes might raise an eyebrow or two. As for the other primary source....another unknown "expert" on a bad webcam.

If such polarized views are to be included, than what's required for objective reporting is to include some opposing; or in this case at least mainstream, opinions and information. Otherwise the "news" just devolves into sensationalism, which is exactly what this dubious piece is.

Might I humbly suggest spending a little of that CBC travel budget that we all pay for, and go out and talk to one or more of:

The worlds regulators such as the FAA, Transport Canada, the CAA or EASA. Or perhaps, a neutral non-political body whose only interest is advancing safety such as the NTSB, TSB, the British AAIB or The Flight Safety Foundation. Maybe a Manufacturer such as Boeing, Airbus, or Bombardier that could clarify just how modern civil aircraft are actually operated.

Or, for a real "reality check" (to borrow a CBC catchphrase) make an appointment with an underwriter from Lloyd's and get their take.

Sensationalistic "reports" such as this call into question why we still fund a public broadcaster. If I want to read alarmist/sensationalistic nonsense I can tune into Fox News or CNN. The CBC has regrettably drifted far away from its roots as an unbiased source of information. It no longer bears almost any resemblance to it's namesake the BBC, which despite the passage of time, has remained (at least in my view) the gold standard of news organizations.

All of the major news outlets have predictably, and to varying degrees, this past week turned to some very dubious "experts" to comment on recent aviation events. As a taxpayer....I have a right to expect more from the CBC.

If only we had some unifying association or professional body to advocate for our profession and add their voice.....I think my membership in the College of Pilots is up for renewal....maybe I'll wait and see if they actually "promote the calibre of Professional Pilots in Canada."
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JohnnyHotRocks
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Five years ago Embraer was studying the idea of single pilot airliners. Not sure what ever happened to that research project but I would bet it is alive and well in some form or another.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... rs-343348/
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timel
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by timel »

Flywest wrote: If only we had some unifying association or professional body to advocate for our profession and add their voice.....I think my membership in the College of Pilots is up for renewal....maybe I'll wait and see if they actually "promote the calibre of Professional Pilots in Canada."
I agree. I tryed to reach the CoP a few times, their emails don't even work on the website. I don't know what happening in there.

I was having lunch with some folks today, the first thing they told me is, hey what's wrong with pilots? You guys are under fire?

Yes we are, and no one to speak for ourselves.
The College of Pilots or unions do have the expertise, the knowledge and they could take a stand and calm those hysterical journalists.

But no problem. Once again pilots are dragged down in the mud.
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single_swine_herder
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by single_swine_herder »

Flywest wrote:It's always been my personal belief that Wendy Mesley is one of the most unbalanced and sensationalistic reporters at the CBC.....and that's saying something these days.

edited ......

Sensationalistic "reports" such as this call into question why we still fund a public broadcaster. If I want to read alarmist/sensationalistic nonsense I can tune into Fox News or CNN. The CBC has regrettably drifted far away from its roots as an unbiased source of information. It no longer bears almost any resemblance to it's namesake the BBC, which despite the passage of time, has remained (at least in my view) the gold standard of news organizations.

All of the major news outlets have predictably, and to varying degrees, this past week turned to some very dubious "experts" to comment on recent aviation events. As a taxpayer....I have a right to expect more from the CBC.

If only we had some unifying association or professional body to advocate for our profession and add their voice.....I think my membership in the College of Pilots is up for renewal....maybe I'll wait and see if they actually "promote the calibre of Professional Pilots in Canada."

The thing to understand about the CBC on-air talent you see on the TV screen is they just read what comes up on the teleprompter in front of them.

While they do have some input in the newsroom as a by-standing office kibitzer whom some staff may see alternatively as being irritating or being inspirational, they are not allowed to do any writing by union contract with "The Guild." The News Director makes the call on the material that is covered, and how it is written before going to air.

Wendy just sits there and reads, placing snide emphasis, intonation, and facial micro-expressions of revulsion where it may seem beneficial.

The corporate culture of the CBC is another matter entirely, and considering that the majority of the staff are Toronto-centric, the views you'd hear expressed in the Student Union Building of the U of T or York University carry the day in the programming and are made to appear as if their opinions are mainstream beliefs of the great unwashed populace.
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ditar
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by ditar »

Even if at some point pilot-less airliners are rolled out, the piloting profession won't disappear for at least 50 years or more afterward, considering the current glut of 727s and DC-10s and the like that are still flying in some capacity. By then we'll just have 787 and A380 cargo conversions, and yes, Buffalo will still be flying DC-3s.
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palebird
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Re: Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

Post by palebird »

Windows? Ever flown or worked on an Embraer EJet? Windows.
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