Globe & Mail on the future of Pilots

[Flywest]

If you're in the mood to make a perfectly lousy week in Aviation even worse, then might I suggest surfing on over to the Globe & Mail's website and checking out Paul Koring's wonderful new article titled:

AVIATION IS FAST APPROACHING THE POST PILOT ERA

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/wor ... e23676871/

I know we've all read articles musing about single pilot cockpits and the rise of the drones...all of which contain a degree of truth...but this one takes the cake! As if his condescending writing style, and general ignorance of aviation isn't enough, I know you'll all especially enjoy the part where he compares those in the piloting profession to elevator operators...

Pour a Scotch and enjoy!!!

FWIW take it with this grain of salt: (perhaps Tequila then instead of Scotch) The same regulatory authorities that he claims will be be constructing a vast network of pilotless aircraft infrastructure in a mere 15 years....have yet to put centreline lights and an ILS on the most commonly used runway in our nations capital.

[Tanker299]

And yet trains are still being manned by people. Even though there are a few examples of automated trains I don't see CN,CP, VIA or the light rail transit systems laying off thousands of operators. The elevator operators comparison was great, if an elevator fails it just stays in the place it failed. Planes fall out of the sky.

[timel]

The day they figure out computer intelligence equal to human. Can't program a computer to answer all the probabilities possible in a flight.

+ The amount of sensors, cameras, probabilities, debuging, maintenance, probably cheaper to keep pilots and hotel rooms.

BS for journalist, keep on dreaming.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

http://dronewars.net/drone-crash-database/

Very incomplete database of drone crashes. Canada alone crashed about 15 drones......

[7ECA]

A day after the crash, the narrative had already been written. FO goes postal, depressed, suicidal, had visions of grandeur, etc... Poor bastard, and his family, have been absolutely dragged through the mud by the media.

At least wait until the FDR is found, and the data processed, before you starting coming out with allegations.

As for pilotless aircraft, when the first one crashes, which of the talking heads on CNN, or FOX, or SUN News (whoops, good riddance ) will be first to beg for piloted aircraft again?

[timel]

http://dronewars.net/drone-crash-database/

Very incomplete database of drone crashes. Canada alone crashed about 15 drones......

[palebird]

You guys are too funny...it is the future, choose to ignore it at your own peril..

[timel]

You guys are too funny...it is the future, choose to ignore it at your own peril..

Yup planes will fly on their own with google map, we will have robocops taking care of speeding tickets, robots will do everything; No more taxi drivers, no more pizza delivery guy, no more factory jobs, no more service jobs, no more nothing, we will be all programing computers, we will have a mobile chip transplanted in the head with a credit card number and we will eat transgenic food ... then human revolution like in the movies and the matrix. The 1% will be living in space and we will all die.

For now to enjoy the ride.

[Legacy]

You guys are too funny...it is the future, choose to ignore it at your own peril..

A very uneducated response. Unless you meant the year 2090 but used a vague answer instead.

[esp803]

66 years.

It took 66 years to go from "Hey look, I'm flying for a couple hundred feet and I weigh more than the air around me" to "Hey look, I'm standing on another F^*&ing planet (okay, technically a moon), and I made it back"

What I think a lot of people fail to take into account when you say this will never happen is that technology is exponentially increasing it's rate of increase. Here are a couple brief talks by a guy named Ray Kurzweil. A former CP of mine mentioned one of his books a couple years ago to me. His research is quite interesting regarding the coming invnetion of "the singularity". Essentially when genuine AI becomes a reality. Today's computers can't do what a human does... but tomorrows computers... I'd say it's highly likely. I'd encourage you to pick up and read a couple of his books, particularly "The Singularity is Near".

Do I think I'll see pilotless aircraf during my career (I expect I have almost 40 years left), yes. Do I think it will eliminate all pilots, no.

Anyways, enjoy these two talks if you have a couple minutes to spare.

E

http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_o ... anguage=en

http://www.ted.com/talks/ray_kurzweil_g ... anguage=en

[pelmet]

Buffalo will still be flying DC-3's.

[florch]

Probably, one day...when every agent is replaced with a kiosk, when you self scan through security, when a conveyor belt replaces every ground handler, when flight attendants are replaced by vending machines...those are all easier tasks on which to replace humans.

[photofly]

I think the flight attendants have the best job security of all those groups. They will, however, need the two week training course on how to operate the aircraft automation systems on the pilotless aircraft.

(This will be done from a small panel - just below the cabin lighting controls - adjacent to the entrance to the galley in the nose section where the pilots used to sit.)

[single_swine_herder]

I think the flight attendents have the best job security of all those groups. They will, however, need the two week training course on how to operate the aircraft automation systems on the pilotless aircraft.

(This will be done from a small panel - just below the cabin lighting controls - adjacent to the entrance to the galley in the nose section where the pilots used to sit.)

Not so fast ..... Flight Attedants could be one of the first to be replaced by automation.

If Dr. Sheldon Cooper can have a virtual presence, so can a FA ....

https://youtu.be/uhZFo4VMzPk

[youtube] https://youtu.be/uhZFo4VMzPk [/youtube]

[dukepoint]

Code: Select all

c

You guys are too funny...it is the future, choose to ignore it at your own peril..

Where the heck do guys like this come from???? No understanding of what we do whatsoever.

Over a pilots entire Major Airline career, they would earn less than 3 million dollars. Until they develop a component that can interface flawlessly with all aircraft systems, and deal with EVERY contingency imaginable while airborne...... as good as or better than a human pilot........and price that component LESS than 3 million dollars (including the connection interface), this is a rediculous concept at best.

There is no economic requirement for this. The development costs of creating a flawless interface alone would be astronomical. Think......every meteorological phenomenon, every solar phenomenon, every system anomoly, every ground based anomoly, and the requirement to be totally impervious to any form of ground based sabotage.

Good luck with the public sell. No airline would want to be first. No passenger would want to be first. Think about it for two seconds.

No single pilot airliner is on the drawing board at Boeing, Airbus, or Bomb......none. Fortunately they understand the value of a human pilot, and continue to develop aircraft with them at the heart. This is not projected to change any time soon. Sorry.

DP.

[malamute1]

And how long has it been that we are still using voice transmissions with a dinosaur ATC system? It's a fairy tale imho.

[goldeneagle]

Over a pilots entire Major Airline career, they would earn less than 3 million dollars. Until they develop a component that can interface flawlessly with all aircraft systems, and deal with EVERY contingency imaginable while airborne...... as good as or better than a human pilot........and price that component LESS than 3 million dollars (including the connection interface), this is a rediculous concept at best.

Recheck your math, because that single machine doesn't replace just one pilot, it replaces all of the crews on staff to keep one airframe airborne. In a high utilization operation, that's a dozen or more, and somewhat smaller numbers at a low utilization operation, but not likely to go below 6, ie 3 crews.

[AuxBatOn]

That, and an employee costs a LOT more than just salary...

[parallel60]

Someone brought this up on PPRUNE. One very important thing to consider.....try and find a company that would insure a pilotless passenger aircraft. My lunch money is on..."Not gonna happen."

[timel]

Someone brought this up on PPRUNE. One very important thing to consider.....try and find a company that would insure a pilotless passenger aircraft. My lunch money is on..."Not gonna happen."

Yup cause when things go wrong, it is the pilots fault.
http://avherald.com

Planes do get old, atc do mess up, computers do fail and saying you can program all off the probabilities that could happend in flight, good luck, that will be called artificial intelligence, we won't need surgeons, lawyers, bus, train drivers.... anymore....

[dukepoint]

Over a pilots entire Major Airline career, they would earn less than 3 million dollars. Until they develop a component that can interface flawlessly with all aircraft systems, and deal with EVERY contingency imaginable while airborne...... as good as or better than a human pilot........and price that component LESS than 3 million dollars (including the connection interface), this is a rediculous concept at best.

Recheck your math, because that single machine doesn't replace just one pilot, it replaces all of the crews on staff to keep one airframe airborne. In a high utilization operation, that's a dozen or more, and somewhat smaller numbers at a low utilization operation, but not likely to go below 6, ie 3 crews.

I'll re-check my math all week if you like. It's barely relevant in light of far larger issues.

Math isn't going to change the fact that single pilot airliners, nor pilotless ones for that matter, are even on a drafting table somewhere. They aren't because no one is dumb enough to spend development funding on a concept that will be an extremely hard sell to airlines. There is NO infrastructure even in the works yet. When driverless cars, and driverless trains are the norm, then I'll have another look. Remember that these operate in two-dimensions, over relatively small distances, and are less subject to weather phenomenon. Aircraft cover vast distances in three dimensions, and you cannot just stop it, get out and kick it if something goes amiss, like in the aforementioned.

Check the Boeing/Airbus customer database and name ONE Airline that would be willing to put in an order for a pilotless airliner. Economics dictates product development. There has to be a market first, which there isn't. It make this whole issue pointless to discuss. Come back in 15 years, and B&A will still be pumping out 787/A350 derivatives. With TWO pilot seats.

Bother someone else about pointless detail on a pointless debate. You will not likely fly on one in your lifetime, nor will I.

DP.

[AuxBatOn]

The end of pilots in a cockpit started 17 years ago when GPS was introduced in commercial aviation. Then we developped approaches based on GPS signal and now we have near-precision approaches. Combined that with LAAS and you'll soon be able to autoland on GPS approaches. Now, with CPDLC. We are this much closer: FMS can be fed through ATC datalink. I give it another 20-25 years before we see commercial airliners with no pilots.

There is nothing a pilot does in an airliner cockpit that a computer cannot do. And it even does it more efficiently and with no "judgement" errors: the computers knows its limits and will not bust them. And for the odd thing that the computer cannot do, you have a secure datalink to a flight center where someone takes control from the ground.

[BE20 Driver]

Everything in aviation these days is done in small increments. Think of GPS roll out. First it was only used [legally] for enroute navigation. Then as an overlay approach. Then as a standalone non-precision approach. Finally a standalone precision approach.

Using a similar approach, until last week I could have envisioned moving to a single pilot airliner backed up by a live feed to a ground based operator. Over time roles would switch to the operator being in primary control backed up by a solitary pilot in the cockpit. Eventually, the single pilot would be phased out after proving the reliability of the system.

The Germanwings FO wanted for everyone to know his name and to change the system. Maybe in some perverse way, he will be known as the guy who prevented single pilot airline operations.

[fish4life]

Based on the air canada crash in Halifax thread I gathered that some Air Canada airplanes don't even have GPS in them yet...... Aviation is slow to adapt

[palebird]

66 years


Yes I know who Ray Kurzweil is and I have read a lot of his material. I doubt if any of the naysayers here have even heard of him. Like I said ignore the future at your own peril.