Emirates

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Boreas
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Re: Emirates

Post by Boreas »

The oil industry won't collapse overnight - I'm not suggesting that. It doesn't have to collapse though.

The only thing holding the region together (radical Islam at bay) is a lot of money from oil exports. As soon as peak demand comes along - BP keep moving their estimate closer and closer - prices will tank and a couple of years after that, the place will be about as stable as your average Lion Air approach.

Of course, that's just my opinion. You're more than welcome to disagree. We'll see in about 10 years time.

In the meantime, all I'm saying is that I would think twice about jumping into a career in the Middle East in 2018.
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Re: Emirates

Post by AuxBatOn »

You know peak oil was predicted to be 2011? I also assume you are aware that we are in 2018 in the same calendar system?
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Re: Emirates

Post by Boreas »

AuxBatOn wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 5:12 pm You know peak oil was predicted to be 2011? I also assume you are aware that we are in 2018 in the same calendar system?
You're confusing "peak oil" [output] with "peak demand". Look it up before chirping about calendar systems...
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Re: Emirates

Post by AuxBatOn »

It is essentially the same thing, except that peak demand was made up after people realized peak oil wasn't materializing. Just some other made up event in the medium term future by alarmists to get the crowds going.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Boreas »

AuxBatOn wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 5:28 pm It is essentially the same thing, except that peak demand was made up after people realized peak oil wasn't materializing. Just some other made up event in the medium term future by alarmists to get the crowds going.
Its the polar opposite actually, and it will happen. Its only a question of when.
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Re: Emirates

Post by AuxBatOn »

Dude, I know it's the opposite. But it is still only a mechanism employed by fatalists to drive people away from oil. In that sense, it's the same thing.

What these theories fail to take into account is the resilience of the human race and its ability to innovate when they absolutely have to.

Yes, we'll reach a point far in the future when oil demand will decline. But:

1- When that happens, you and I will either be very old or, more likely, will be dead.
2- When it happens, other industries will have taken the vacuum left by the oil.

No need to make career choices based on fatalist theories.
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Re: Emirates

Post by complexintentions »

Eric Janson wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 6:06 am
@Complex

You're reading an awful lot into my posts - there's a difference between experiencing the culture and embracing the culture.

As Expat I'm obviously not a local nor will I ever be one - it's about respecting their way of doing things and learning how to live as a guest in their country. That does require a lot of flexibility - it's not for everyone.

At the end of the day I'm just a guy trying to make the best of his situation - I'm assuming that's the same for you?

My colleague flying with me at the moment is a former Emirates Pilot - his comments on the current situation in Dubai/Emirates are similar to what I have posted.

Just wondering - would you recommend Dubai/Emirates to your friends?

hi Eric,

Fair enough re: culture. What appeals to one is a complete turnoff to another - it's a matter of opinion and taste. I would never have chosen to live in Sri Lanka, for example. I would not dismiss working there for someone else though based on my opinion of the place.

And that's the thing - I don't "recommend" people going to Emirates, or not going to Emirates - or anywhere. For such a massive decision, it has to be the individual's choice entirely. However, I'm regularly approached by people asking for my opinion and actual experiences there, so I try to offer them as completely as possible. Views such as yours re: Dubai do come across as quite one-sided - which isn't to say you aren't entitled to them. To reiterate: layovers somewhere, or the self-reinforcing views of friends there, are just not the same as living there. As you of all people should well know.

And I certainly am no fan of many aspects of EK and Dubai life, I've been pretty damn critical many times. I can't relate to your question as the majority of my pilot friends are the same demographic as me and aren't in the market for such advice. But those who do ask, I look at their whole picture and absolutely consider it for anyone that feels it could benefit them, after informed consideration. Because, as much as there were/are many negatives to my own expat life in Dubai, I can't possibly deny that on the whole it was massively successful and lucrative for me professionally, financially, and personally. Advising someone to throw away an opportunity - yes, it has associated risks and downsides - is not my, or anyone's place.

--------------------------------------------

Oh, and oil ain't going anywhere in our lifetime. It'll get more expensive, as things that deplete do. But it isn't going anywhere for the simple reason that there just isn't any alternative even close to carbon-based sources for recoverable energy output. Notable exception is nuclear, which has a couple obstacles to implementation as a replacement - particularly in air transport! :lol:

I sometimes wonder where people think the energy to manufacture solar panels or power electric cars comes from. Some very basic research would show just how minuscule energy sources other than oil/gas/coal are globally. Oil dependence? How much has 1.60/l gas in YVR decreased people driving? :mrgreen:

Smart people would sell that valuable resource and do something intelligent with it. Like, oh, Norway. But Canadians are known for being nice, not smart.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Duncan Idaho »

complexintentions wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 5:58 pmOh, and oil ain't going anywhere in our lifetime. It'll get more expensive, as things that deplete do. But it isn't going anywhere for the simple reason that there just isn't any alternative even close to carbon-based sources for recoverable energy output. Notable exception is nuclear, which has a couple obstacles to implementation as a replacement - particularly in air transport! :lol:

I sometimes wonder where people think the energy to manufacture solar panels or power electric cars comes from. Some very basic research would show just how minuscule energy sources other than oil/gas/coal are globally.
This is true. So long as we have oil, we'll use it up. When it becomes prohibitively expensive, we'll move on. I don't think any of you really believe that we won't be able to engineer new solutions. When things like artificial general intelligence, nanotechnology, robotics and biochemistry get along to a place they're projected at, things are going to be different. Nuclear has been widely accepted in France and it works great, but we still have to work on how American moms got scared by three-mile island. That will be the equivalent of a sewer backup by the time next-gen technologies emerge.

Everything that changes in aviation has to be accepted by every other industry first, so even when computers do every single thing on an airplane with a nuclear engine, there will be at least one pilot on board in case it falls off or something. The future is only around the corner.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Mach1 »

Boreas wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 3:06 pm
Mach1 wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 2:46 pm
Boreas wrote: Fri May 04, 2018 1:33 am Oil isn't what it was 10 years ago and it never will.
Just curious but; What are you basing that on?
Haha, are you from Alberta by any chance? Did that hit a nerve?
Well, since you won't answer me, I presume you have no answer. Should I sink to your level and say "Haha, are you from Ontario by any chance? B. C. by any chance? Does it hit a nerve that people get paid more than you or pay less taxes? Does it hit a nerve that the "You can fix any problem by taxing it" philosophy is not working? If you lack the emotional maturity or experience in life to hold a discussion without attempting to throw mud at people, in this case an entire province of your own country that you have likely never visited, then you should hold your opinions to yourself or the echo chamber of friends you have.

Oil is a commodity and trades just like all other commodities. Prices go up and prices go down. The more rare the commodity, the higher the price goes until we find something to completely replace that commodity. The reason prices are low is because there is too much oil on the market, no other reason.

I am likely far more of an environmentalist than you through my actions rather than slacktivism on the internet. I'm also a realist. It took 150 years to build the worlds current economy and it will take at least that long to dismantle and replace it. Where I do or do not live has little to do with that understanding of the world.
complexintentions wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 5:58 pm Oh, and oil ain't going anywhere in our lifetime. It'll get more expensive, as things that deplete do. But it isn't going anywhere for the simple reason that there just isn't any alternative even close to carbon-based sources for recoverable energy output. Notable exception is nuclear, which has a couple obstacles to implementation as a replacement - particularly in air transport! :lol:

I sometimes wonder where people think the energy to manufacture solar panels or power electric cars comes from. Some very basic research would show just how minuscule energy sources other than oil/gas/coal are globally. Oil dependence? How much has 1.60/l gas in YVR decreased people driving? :mrgreen:

Smart people would sell that valuable resource and do something intelligent with it. Like, oh, Norway. But Canadians are known for being nice, not smart.
This is a full understanding of the situation.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Boreas »

Yeah, things get more expensive if there's demand for them.

Demand for oil will peak and it will decrease. Once this happens everyone who is sitting on any sort of deposit will be climb over each other to pump it out while its still worth something.

Cue total shit-show in the Middle East.

I'll check back here in about 10 years.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Eric Janson »

complexintentions wrote: Sun May 06, 2018 5:58 pm
hi Eric,

Fair enough re: culture. What appeals to one is a complete turnoff to another - it's a matter of opinion and taste. I would never have chosen to live in Sri Lanka, for example. I would not dismiss working there for someone else though based on my opinion of the place.

And that's the thing - I don't "recommend" people going to Emirates, or not going to Emirates - or anywhere. For such a massive decision, it has to be the individual's choice entirely. However, I'm regularly approached by people asking for my opinion and actual experiences there, so I try to offer them as completely as possible. Views such as yours re: Dubai do come across as quite one-sided - which isn't to say you aren't entitled to them. To reiterate: layovers somewhere, or the self-reinforcing views of friends there, are just not the same as living there. As you of all people should well know.

And I certainly am no fan of many aspects of EK and Dubai life, I've been pretty damn critical many times. I can't relate to your question as the majority of my pilot friends are the same demographic as me and aren't in the market for such advice. But those who do ask, I look at their whole picture and absolutely consider it for anyone that feels it could benefit them, after informed consideration. Because, as much as there were/are many negatives to my own expat life in Dubai, I can't possibly deny that on the whole it was massively successful and lucrative for me professionally, financially, and personally. Advising someone to throw away an opportunity - yes, it has associated risks and downsides - is not my, or anyone's place.

--------------------------------------------
@Complex

All valid points - no issue with any of the above.

I don't recall telling people not to go to Emirates/Dubai - I do encourage people to do their research and know what they are getting themselves into.

The only thing I've told people not to do is to give up a stable job in their home country to become an Expat. I stand behind that comment.

I agree that layovers are different than living in Dubai - but that doesn't mean I haven't seen or been exposed to things.

- I've done walkarounds at 47C (48C as we started the take-off roll).
- I've been there during Ramadan (multiple years).
- I've almost been involved in car crashes several times on the roads (seen lots of accidents too).
- After arrival in Dubai it started raining and there was a lot of flooding (including my hotel).
- I've burned my hands on the baggage trolleys outside departures.
- I've had guys put the wrong stamp in my passport and had to wait while that got sorted out (not a simple process).
- I've experienced 2 day sandstorms where you are basically stuck inside.

As I was typing this I realised that there is something I like about Dubai after all:-

I sometimes get to watch the Al Fursan Aerobatic team practice in the morning - they put on a very good display.

More reading about the region (site is banned in Dubai btw). Includes coverage of the situation in Yemen.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/
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Re: Emirates

Post by complexintentions »

None of the problems you mention are remotely exclusive to Dubai. With perhaps the exception of the actual level of heat... uncomfortable weather, flooding, immigration issues, poor driving, car accidents, and Ramadan can all be found in quite a few other places. I've heard that some of these things still exist even in Canada!! :roll: And sadly, internet blocking and censorship are hardly limited to the UAE. On the rise everywhere, including the "first world".

I mean, if you reverse + with - temperatures, you could be describing Winnipeg. Right down to the flooding part and your hands burning on the baggage trolley.

There are larger issues to consider at EK, like fatigue, inflation, slowed upgrade times, increased bond amount and duration. Believe me, I mention all this and more to those who ask.

But pissing on it because it's hot and sandy?

C'mon.

Anyway, back to watching F15's land in Sapporo.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Mach1 »

complexintentions wrote: Tue May 08, 2018 11:54 pm None of the problems you mention are remotely exclusive to Dubai. With perhaps the exception of the actual level of heat... uncomfortable weather, flooding, immigration issues, poor driving, car accidents, and Ramadan can all be found in quite a few other places. I've heard that some of these things still exist even in Canada!! :roll:
Car accidents in Canada? You're a mad man complexintentions!
complexintentions wrote: Tue May 08, 2018 11:54 pm I mean, if you reverse + with - temperatures, you could be describing Winnipeg. Right down to the flooding part and your hands burning on the baggage trolley.
Thank you for the laugh of the morning. It's funny because it's true.
complexintentions wrote: Tue May 08, 2018 11:54 pm There are larger issues to consider at EK, like fatigue, inflation, slowed upgrade times, increased bond amount and duration. Believe me, I mention all this and more to those who ask.

But pissing on it because it's hot and sandy?

C'mon.

Anyway, back to watching F15's land in Sapporo.
Those are the issues that would concern me most. For instance, I did not know EK had a bond. I think I am past the bond part of my career.
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Re: Emirates

Post by Eric Janson »

Just flew with a former Emirates Pilot.

Emirates is contacting people who left and are asking them to come back.

Of course they have to do the entire selection process all over again. Typical of how things work in the region.

That's how desperate things are getting.
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Re: Emirates

Post by MattK »

It is such an incredibly complicated answer! Depends on age, experience, family prospects etc.

I spent 13 years in the ME and almost 11 at EK. For me, it was well worth it financially, for my family, life experience, aviation experience etc etc.

BUT - it was a different time. In the end I left for a multitude of reasons but a major one being that I could not hack the schedules any longer. A new guy who has been their for 4 years or less cannot accurately give you an assessment on this aspect, particularly since for a significant time it was fairly easy as an FO compared to what the captains were flying.

Their are good things and bad things about both EK and Dubai and pprune, imo, is VERY accurate in its description. How you react and deal with that 'description' is different for different people.

Dubai itself is a nice city and you can read about the good and bad on pprune. It is what it is. But you can lead a good life their with or without family - though it is getting very expensive.

The most important aspect to 'Dubai' is whether your family will like it. I have seen too many guys chasing big, shiny jets bring their family over without getting them fully on board and it never went well. Your first priority is to them not to your career aspirations. Once that hurdle is passed you can look at the other things.

EK housing has been deteriorating and they have a new complex for pilots. While I quite like the villas EK, as it typically does, dropped the ball on the other aspects of the complex, cramming the houses together and not having any of the other amenities ready (still not).

The pay is very good especially compared to Canada. But they WILL get their pound of flesh. You will work 90 plus hours a month (did 112 last Feb) between ULR, long haul and short haul with lots of nights. It is somewhat fleet dependent but it will average out over time. At first this will seem doable. So when I see guys who have been at EK for a short time dismissing this I simply say - wait and see. Over years it accumulates! Add to that that EK does not give you credit for sim (so two months a year you have that crammed into your sked which reduces those 14 days off someone mentioned), or for vacation so they LOVE to give you 5 VACATION days and still fly you 90 hours (I was smart about this early on and would take large chuncks of time off until EK gradually reduced the max VAC time to 21 days - if you can actually get it). The bidding system has been dessimated and now barely functions as it should so expect to get roughly one or two requests in some months and none in others. They also decided to make swapping incredibly difficult with a series of 'rules' that make it almost impossible to swamp. Since most are in OT a swap is almost never legal!

I wouldn't underestimate the affect of scheduling on your lifestyle. If you are single it may have less influence especially if you can take vacation outside the peak times. Though even if I was single I would like some time at home in the summer. For a pilot with a family it is much more important. With their rotating vacation bid you 'should' get peak leave every second year which means every 2 years you will get vacation time with your kids. You can be sure you will not in the following year. If your kids are young enough you can take them out of school when it works for your vacation sked. As they get older that gets more difficult. But then in my opinion Dubai is great for young kids, much less so once they hit their teens.

I could go on about the negatives surrounding EK but you can get that on pprune - like I said it is all pretty accurate. But the issues are more critical for some than others so don't disregard their complaints!

In the end I can best sum that aspect of EK up by saying it is something like a death by a thousand cuts! It seems changes and degradation of conditions never ends. All of the complaints you see ad up. A perfect example is the recent introduction of customs duties - particularly on alcohol. A perk, if you want to call it that, that was used by most crew members. Many of us shopped while away, especially for foods that you can't get in Dubai, for alcohol and other things. Recently the rules changed but only for EK and only at the main airport. It was rescinded for a while then reinstated. There appears to be no doubt that it was EK initiated but regardless, it is another in a long string of negative changes and while it appears innocuous by itself, taken in the context of the constant string of changes over time it has the crews in an uproar. An outsider would look in and say that's ridiculous. But an outside hasn't lived it.

THAT is why people are leaving! The negative changes never seem to abate and, more importantly, many policies have the explicit aim of 'putting pilot in their place'. Anyone who has dealt with the office will tell you the same. The mantra 'if you don't like it then leave' has always existed and spouted verbally by several differnt VP's at different time. So it is clear to the employees that they are nothing more than labour and while that is true in many parts of the world you have various protections against many of the issues EK pilots are dealing with.

Coming to EK and DUBAI is like walking a very narrow path along a sheer cliff. If you somehow stumble, whether through your own fault or not, you may well go over. In Dubai, if you run afoul of the wrong person, situation or authority you may end up packing up. There are enough cases, just among EK pilots, to be wary. With EK the situation is the same. Wrong day, wrong place and you may end up without a job. Most of us stay on the path but a good number do not and in most cases it is through no real fault of their own.

But the real question is would I recommend EK!!!???

I would say it depends on the person. If you are young, can survive what will likely amount to 5-8 years for an upgrade - for the guys hired today and don't have any better offers that it might be a good move. But if you can go to AC or WJ I think you would be stupid to choose EK. This is one reason why EK is having difficulty recruiting - the other airlines are hiring and seniority is everything!

Which brings up the next issue. If you do go you will need to plan HOW you will leave. While there is a lot of hiring worldwide right now that won't always be the case and there may not be an avenue for you to return home when it suits you. I know/knew quite a few who were in that boat and life REALLY sucks then. Even now there are some guys who would love to leave but can't really afford the pay cut it takes to start back in Canada. The first company that realizes the experience available that can be had for some basic pay increases into manageable levels won't be short pilots.

There are so many variables that go into the decision. But go into with eyes wide open and, like I said, avoid the big shiny jet syndrome and evaluate it objectively.
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Re: Emirates

Post by complexintentions »

Finally. Someone else who doesn't write a "Dubai sucks" or "Dubai rules" simplistic post. This is very, very good intel - and look at that, it took more than 14o characters to write!

The bottom line is that the job can turn out well for some and a nightmare for others. There is no easy answer to the "would you recommend Emirates to your friends" question.

Sadly, it probably won't change the minds of either those who are deadset against taking a risk and leaving their comfort zone in Canada, or those who are hellbent on joining. But it is absolutely accurate.

Thanks for posting.
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Re: Emirates

Post by confusedalot »

Out of the game because of age, so no agendas here. Curious about a few of the facts pointed out though, and certainly not judging the validity.

If Emirates has what is considered slow upgrades, (gotta chucke a bit, but that is just me, I recall a time where 10 to 20 years was considered normal for an upgrade at a major airline, and that was into a small narrowbody) I can only assume that the people at the top are not leaving? But the bottom people are? So....what's going on?

It has been stated that they have parked airplanes. An outsider would assume that if the corporation had a bunch of airframes to put into the air, upgrades would be quick, would they not? Which brings me to my secondary query; what exactly are they looking for in a new hire profile if they are having trouble getting recruits? And what are the standards for upgrade?

In sharp contrast to what is occurring at Mapleflot right now, new hires don't really have a whole lot of background except for a token few, and, depending on requirements, can end up straight into 787 or 330 right seats after a total of 2, 3 or 4 years after finishing flying school. Getting a left seat in the smaller aircraft in the fleet appears to be accessible in a mere couple of years, sometimes less. And we are not talking about experienced people, it's all seniority based.

Just curious. Something is not adding up in my brain.
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Re: Emirates

Post by confusedalot »

Never mind the above post.......Took a look at what Emirates wants for a first officer new hire on their website. Major airlines are looking for significantly less, and hiring significantly less qualified people. No wonder they are having a problem.
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Re: Emirates

Post by complexintentions »

The slow upgrades are, as you say, relative to what they were over the last 10-15 years. Due more to the slowing expansion - when you doubled your fleet every year or two upgrades were exceptionally quick. Pilots of all demographics are leaving, including senior ones - it just doesn't have the same impact as slowing fleet growth.

The parked a/c is due to overall lack of bodies, not just captains. Fine to do "quick" upgrades, but then who sits in the right seat if no one's coming?
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Re: Emirates

Post by Eric Janson »

@MattK

Good post - just a small comment on one part of what you've written.
MattK wrote: Sat May 12, 2018 10:07 am Which brings up the next issue. If you do go you will need to plan HOW you will leave. While there is a lot of hiring worldwide right now that won't always be the case and there may not be an avenue for you to return home when it suits you. I know/knew quite a few who were in that boat and life REALLY sucks then. Even now there are some guys who would love to leave but can't really afford the pay cut it takes to start back in Canada. The first company that realizes the experience available that can be had for some basic pay increases into manageable levels won't be short pilots.
It makes no sense to start at the bottom again in N America unless you have a lot of years left in your career.

Another alternative is to get an EASA ATPL and transfer your ratings over. Those people who are able to obtain an EU passport or who speak the local language would have an extra advantage.

There are numerous DEC positions available in Europe including jobs that allow commuting and companies that fly to Canada. Much shorter to commute to Canada trans Atlantic vs trans Pacific. Plus you are living in a part of the world with things like a functioning legal system and labour laws. Plenty of nice places to live imho.

Going West out of Dubai may be better than going further East - it comes down to individual preference.
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