Grab a seat. The music is stopping

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Sharklasers
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Sharklasers »

If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

Sharklasers wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 am If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,
Now there is a creative solution to a problem.

Ironically the ESP at Jazz was to try to get all the expensive Sr pilots to retire yet mainline AC seems to have a hard on to keep them here.
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duro195
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by duro195 »

I wouldn't be overly worried with layoffs. Obviously it might change if this thing drags on but nobody can predict that (much like market trends....there'll good buying opportunities when this shitstorm landslide is over, but I digress).

For the time being, the Max situation might end up being a good thing as Big Red doesn't have extra capacity they need to support. They're even deploying WB on NA routes because the 320s can't keep up. As the year passes, some of the extended leases for NBs will be over so they'll have the option to reduce capacity without penalties. If anything it'll give NB guys a bit of time to breathe without being blocked as high as the last year. On the pilot's side they have so many open positions and so many retirements coming up (good thing the age was pushed back to 65) that they'll likely be able to weather the storm without resorting to layoffs.

Keep Calm and Carry On......and tell everyone you know to keep traveling!
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Squid
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Squid »

Sharklasers wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 am If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,
Problem is if you don’t have people in the planes it’s not all about the pilots. It’s also about parking some very very expensive metal. There will be casualties in the industry if this takes off in North America. Think of all the the hot spots now and look at the metal we fly there. It ain’t over and this might be the correction Canada will see. I’ll bet the first q results are gonna be ugly.
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vermont
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by vermont »

This all sounds like a great time to give up on training for anyone who hasn't sunk a load of money in
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Mr. North
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Mr. North »

Sharklasers wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 am If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,
Thread hijack alert! This "early retirement penalty" is misleading. There is nothing stopping people from retiring early and collecting a pension that reflects what they contributed. Why should someone retiring early (and skipping out on years of pension contributions) be entitled to a full pension?
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

Mr. North wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:49 am
Sharklasers wrote: Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:03 am If they company lifted the 6% Per year early retirement penalty they could quickly and cheaply get at least 100 expensive guys off the property,
Thread hijack alert! This "early retirement penalty" is misleading. There is nothing stopping people from retiring early and collecting a pension that reflects what they contributed. Why should someone retiring early (and skipping out on years of pension contributions) be entitled to a full pension?
I don't think you understand how the pension works or what a "full pension" is. I don't think you understand the scenarios the earlier poster is referring to. This isn't about 50 year olds retiring early...

Nobody gets more pension than they pay into in YOS, and based on their best 5, but penalties for leaving before your *NEW* "normal age of retirement" apply and are unreasonably harsh in sone scenarios.

Some people can go at 60, those that can't have their normal retirement age set at 65.

2 examples. Both have the same earnings in their "best 5."

Pilot 1 worked most of his career as an FO and upgraded for his last 5.
Pilot 2 spent most of his career as a Captain and paid more money into the pension earlier and in total than Pilot 1.
Both joined the airline on the premise of retiring at age 60.

Pilot 1 turns 60 and retires with 25 years of pensionable service. He is entitled to an unreduced pension.

Pilot 2 turns 60 and retires with 24 years 11 months of pensionable service. He takes an actuarial reduction from his "normal retirement age" of 65. The reduction is 6% per year, or 30%.

So both retiring at the same age, the age they joined the airline and were told "this is when you'll retire", with one month difference in service, and the guy (Pilot 2) that put more money into his pension his whole career will leave with not only the 1 month less service credit into his pension formula (fair), but also a 30% reduction on that number because he's before the "normal retirement age".

Lots of guys that won't have 25 years at age 60 and want to go at the age they were promised, with the pension they have paid for and earned and not have to hold on until 65.
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Squid
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Squid »

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Eric Janson
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Eric Janson »

I'm writing this from Dubai.

Numerous events cancelled/postponed and the shopping Malls are a lot emptier.

Emirates has just asked staff to take paid/unpaid leave on a voluntary basis. Most flights to/from Iran cancelled.

Global travel is slowing. N America will be next.

This a multi-year Black Swan event imho.

I do wish people would do some research - this virus is nothing like the Flu.
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GhostRider6
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by GhostRider6 »

As in this virus is not as bad as the flu?

There has been far more deaths from the flu this year than the coronavirus since it surfaced.

How is this a multi year black swan event? This virus has been recently discovered...Are you inferring it’s been around longer than portrayed?

There is a market correction occurring .. but things are already on the upswing ..( for now at least)

China is asking its citizens to go back to work...
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fish4life
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by fish4life »

Eric Janson wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:34 pm I'm writing this from Dubai.

Numerous events cancelled/postponed and the shopping Malls are a lot emptier.

Emirates has just asked staff to take paid/unpaid leave on a voluntary basis. Most flights to/from Iran cancelled.

Global travel is slowing. N America will be next.

This a multi-year Black Swan event imho.

I do wish people would do some research - this virus is nothing like the Flu.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.busine ... 20-3%3Famp

More people recovered than infected, it will be over in China soon.
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

Infections are plateauing in Italy also.

It's typical overblown media hysteria. The fact is the vast majority of people show few/no symptoms and recover quickly on their own.

This will be over and not even be making the news cycle in a matter of weeks or months, not years.

Onto the next "crisis."
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sarg
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by sarg »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 11:31 am I hope you're right. Hopefully AC losing 28% of its stock value and $3.9 billion of market cap is only a "buying opportunity".

Just saying that it may take more than shifting a few tails around to make that up by June. Especially if pax loads and yields fall by any appreciable amount, which is hardly unforeseeable.

As to perception, it's everything. A threat doesn't have to be that dire, or even real, for people to be afraid. People aren't rational. They see some scary videos on YouTube and that's it. Then they go out to carry on dying by the millions of preventable heart diseases.

Air Canada was the world's best airline stock two months ago. Now it's the worst.
Don't know about AC but Warren Buffet is betting that Delta is under valued right now.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... Jq90kSNppr
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ayseven
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ayseven »

Interesting, because he didn't used to like airlines.
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CPT.HarshColdReality
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

Air travel is nowhere to go. It will only continue to increase exponentially!
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

ayseven wrote: Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:43 pm Interesting, because he didn't used to like airlines.
He refuted that position several years ago. Said the fundamentals had changed.
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47north
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 47north »

If anyone things this isn’t going to affect Canadian carriers they haven’t been paying attention:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/united- ... break.html
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CL-Skadoo!
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CL-Skadoo! »

I guess if this is your first global crisis and being afraid of your own shadow just happens to be your thing, then it's a good time for panic.

Spread your tiny wings millennial falcons, you will endure!
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Blowin' In The Wind
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Blowin' In The Wind »

CL-Skadoo! wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:57 pm
Spread your tiny wings millennial falcons, you will endure!
lol
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

It's OK I'm not one of those college to Jazz to AC hires and have actual experience. IF layoffs occur I'm sure I'll be able to find a job somewhere, might not be what or where I want to be but at least I won't starve. The rez needs pop and chips no matter what.

I'd had to be someone in flight school or just finishing if we do end up hitting a big recession in airline travel and the economy.
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