Grab a seat. The music is stopping

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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

No crisis wasted.
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DHC-1 Jockey
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by DHC-1 Jockey »

UK’s 3rd largest airline Flybe Airlines has just ceased operations due to Corona virus:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguar ... -to-follow
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Yycjetdriver
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Yycjetdriver »

DHC-1 Jockey wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 8:59 pm UK’s 3rd largest airline Flybe Airlines has just ceased operations due to Corona virus:

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.theguar ... -to-follow
They’ve been struggling since long before the corona virus, likely an excuse.
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7ECA
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 7ECA »

Flybe has been on life-support since January, right around the same time as Thomas Cook went belly up. Flybe has gone tits up, because the UK Government refused to give them a bridge loan. 2000 employees out of work...
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JohnnyHotRocks
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by JohnnyHotRocks »

Coronavirus could cost airline industry $113bn
From CNN's Robert North
The coronavirus outbreak could cost the airline industry as much as $113 billion in lost revenue, according to the airline industry body IATA.

In new forecasts, IATA said airlines' passenger business could lose $63bn if the coronavirus outbreak is contained (in current markets with over 100 cases as of March 2). It warned, however, that if the virus continues to spread, the cost could rise to $113bn.

In this worst-case scenario, the big falls would be in Asia and Europe. IATA said European airlines could see passenger numbers drop by 24%.

This is a big increase to IATA’s previous forecasts. On February 20, IATA predicted that airlines would lose $29.3bn.
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complexintentions
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by complexintentions »

There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic


*The End Of The World As We Know It
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Bede
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Bede »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.
lol. Remember idiocy is multiplicative, not additive. 2 half wits doesn't make a full wit- it makes a quarter wit.
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digits_
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by digits_ »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
You can have a high IQ and still be dumb as @#$!.
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dumbbell daddy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by dumbbell daddy »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic


*The End Of The World As We Know It
I'm going to copy and paste this and send it to all my idiot family and friends. They'll probably be too busy to read it. Stocking up on toilet paper........
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Inverted2
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Inverted2 »

It’s true. The new generation is in a decline. Can you imagine someone who can’t change a light bulb or furnace filter etc? They might even be flying the plane you’re on.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.studyfi ... nds/%3famp
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complexintentions
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by complexintentions »

digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
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yycflyguy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by yycflyguy »

Bede wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:19 am
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.
lol. Remember idiocy is multiplicative, not additive. 2 half wits doesn't make a full wit- it makes a quarter wit.
The maths is hard!! :lol:
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altiplano
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by altiplano »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades)
That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
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MCB
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by MCB »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am

That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
'Idiocracy' writer: I never expected my movie 'to become a documentary'

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.co ... me-a%3famp
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yycflyguy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by yycflyguy »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am

That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
Why am I only discovering this NOW?
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Eric Janson
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Eric Janson »

GhostRider6 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 pm As in this virus is not as bad as the flu?

There has been far more deaths from the flu this year than the coronavirus since it surfaced.

How is this a multi year black swan event? This virus has been recently discovered...Are you inferring it’s been around longer than portrayed?

There is a market correction occurring .. but things are already on the upswing ..( for now at least)

China is asking its citizens to go back to work...
The number of Corona Virus infections and deaths is still increasing - it will exceed the Flu statistics in a few months at the most. Our so called "Leaders" are doing nothing to stop the spread and are totally unprepared.

There are now 2 strains of this Virus - "S" and "L" variants - so this virus can mutate.

Since the virus is also spreading in countries with a tropical climate I'm not sure that warmer weather is going to help.

By Multi-Year Black Swan Event I mean this is just starting and the consequences will be with us for several years imho.

There's a huge Economic shock coming.

IATA estimates losses to the Airlines will be between 63 and 113 Billion USD - that's increased a few times already.

Satellite data from overhead China show pollution is at an extremely low level - that means most factories are not operating. I don't trust anything China says or any figures they publish.

Australia just released tourist bookings - down 32-100% from the countries most tourists come from. I'm currently in a remote part of Australia and even here they just had a Corona Virus case.

Lufthansa is looking at grounding their entire A380 fleet and project that they may need to ground half their fleet.

I have second hand information that one of the smaller EU flag carriers has just implemented a complete hiring/training stop across the board. That includes all Command upgrades and cabin crew training.

N America seems to be running 4-6 weeks behind the rest of the World.
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7ECA
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 7ECA »

Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm The number of Corona Virus infections and deaths is still increasing - it will exceed the Flu statistics in a few months at the most. Our so called "Leaders" are doing nothing to stop the spread and are totally unprepared.
There's no possible way of stopping the spread of a highly contagious disease. You can mitigate it somewhat, through quarantines and implementing a cordon sanitaire - but there's no way of preventing it from spreading totally. Look at the efforts to kill off malaria, if you want a really interesting case. China's efforts have actually helped markedly, if they'd have just gone on business as usual, there'd be a lot more cases around the world than there currently are. By slowing the spread they gave everyone else a chance to get their shit together and prepare - doesn't mean that's what's happened, of course.
Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm There are now 2 strains of this Virus - "S" and "L" variants - so this virus can mutate.
All viruses can, and do mutate. It hardly makes COVID-19 "novel". Generally coronaviruses mutate into less lethal, less contagious diseases. Which explains how previous contagious coronaviruses like SARS/MERS "died out". It's not that we were able to contain them... Same goes for the Spanish Flu, significantly more potent than COVID-19, but it died out, even after having two periods of heightened activity.

Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm There's a huge Economic shock coming.
No doubt about it, but the virus is just the straw that broke this proverbial camel's back. It's been in the making for years now.
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KAG
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by KAG »

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, good saying, applies today. Sure this is blown up BUT its still going to suck. Aviation is the first to get hit, and the last to recover. People are panicked, this WILL have an impact on us for the foreseeable future. How bad it gets? who knows, but this is going to hurt. Grab a seat, luckily theres plenty to get.
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ikarus
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ikarus »

I agree KAG.

This is maybe over inflated and in some places blown out of proportions ...BUT nevertheless, the damage is done, thanks to media as well complete unpreparedness by majority of countries around the world ....This will be one hell of a roller coaster ride! Most likely a downhill ride...
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