Grab a seat. The music is stopping

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GhostRider6
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by GhostRider6 »

I was a naysayer in the beginning of this and I’m starting to change my mind.

So much of our economy is based on trade of goods and services and consistent and increasing consumption of resources. Social interaction is also based on consumption.

People have over extended themselves, wages have not kept up with inflation and employees in general ( skilled/ unskilled) and consumers alike are grossly underemployed/ undervalued. There isn’t the same value that was once placed on employee and customer loyalty. Meanwhile, the fat cats at the top have concentrated wealth in an extreme way. Newsflash, the top 1% cannot consume enough to keep the economy going. It’s the frontline worker’s consumption of goods and services that makes things work.

It’s a fluid and extremely complex situation with a multitude of variables.

The virus’s spread is also contingent on social interaction this will directly impact consumption of resources and or social interaction and in turn commerce. ( aka the economy) People in the service sector depend on this social interaction. You can see where I’m going here..

Capitalism has led to an us/ against them mentality amongst workers. Instead of people being unified we have become atomized and more than willing to step on eachother to advance. CEO’s know this and capitalize on it.

I think there’s a multitude of ways this thing can play out.

Definitively, I can say so much of this is completely out of our control. We’ll be in the sh&@ with so many others if things go south.
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GhostRider6
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by GhostRider6 »

I also hope that this crisis is not justification for further underemployment which seemed to be the case in each previous downturns. -wages never caught up after austerity measures.

What did happen was the manufacturing of consent for reduced WAWCON for workers in the private sector and some of the public sector.

Why give bailouts to the oil industry yet cut healthcare workers pay etc?
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Trematode
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Trematode »

iflyforpie wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:24 am Man.

So much doom and gloom.

People trying to time the markets and worried about musical chairs is why we have these problems in the first place.

This whole industry was shut down by overhyped doom and gloomers who governments are trying to calm and appease with idiotic responses that look good but do nothing.

Look. People are always going to want to go places. This will blow over in a couple months, and we will see a return to the same new “normal” we’ve seen for the last 3-4 years.

I had a 20 day trip planned that I had to cancel, not because of the virus but because of the idiotic response of two governments who are or are threatening escalation of travel restrictions or are very vague on what they mean. But you don’t think I’m going to do it as soon as the dust settles? Not 5 years or 2 years or even a year from now. Lots of people are the same way. They’ll need a release after this.

Business has to continue. Sure some people might do e commuting and teleconferencing but it’s still basically a shuttle service between YYZ YUL YVR etc.

People still need physical connections and air travel is the only way to do it unless you want to take a three day one day late train service or drive across the country.

The pilot shortage is structural. It’s based on demographics of baby boomers retiring and millennials being uninterested in aviation. These same retirees from all walks of life are heavily invested in lifestyle and will want to travel as well.

This is not 9/11 with new wars and massive security measures. This is not 2008 with an excessively overvalued housing market with sub prime mortgages people can simply walk away from. We’re likely going to go into an era of lower energy prices as the big players make it on volume.. and the only place that’s going to have a negative effect on is Alberta and the portion of charter operations that run in and out of the patch while they aren’t movie sports teams or cadets or mine workers or fishermen.

This is more like 1987. A massive panicked sell off and likely a rebound and business as usual shortly after.

I completely disagree.

The problem, yet again, is that you are trying to compare this to events in recent memory that you have personal experience with (9/11, 2008). It's probably the single overriding problem that leaders are having in responding to this: Leaders make their decisions based on their previous experience and intuition.

The issue is that nobody was alive back in 1918, and the type of personalities that make it to the highest levels of decision making in our governments and institutions are by their nature slow to listen and respond to information that is contradictory to what they've personally experienced about the world. The disease prevention scientists have been warning us that something on this scale is just over the horizon for decades now. They know what's at stake because they're intimately familiar with the spread and the history of these kinds of pathogens -- but they're not leaders, and they lack the social influence to solidly convey the full impact of this crisis to the world population and its governments, as can be seen in the delayed responses of many countries like Italy and the US.

The last two decades have been especially troubling with regards to politicians no longer deferring to science with regards to heeding predictions about our futures based on hard evidence and research, and I think we'll end up paying the price for that throughout the course of this crisis.

I think it's going to last at least through summer, and probably till the end of the year. We will go through ebbs and flows of quarantines and flare-ups as each region around the world tries to put out the fires of this infection. Hopefully once all is said and done, we'll be able to eradicate the virus, but I don't think that's too likely based on what the experts are saying -- and it's very possible that we may be sitting here at the same time next year talking about COVID-21.

If it does end up being an ongoing thing, we will as a people adapt in our daily lives, but that's definitely going to have some pretty sad ramifications for air travel and our social lives in general.
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ehv8oar
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ehv8oar »

I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Sharklasers »

ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm
I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
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tsgas
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by tsgas »

Sharklasers wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:15 pm
ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm
I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
You are so right that many an airline and a pilot's dream have been destroyed by the reality of the industry.
Delta is cutting 40% of their flights and will be parking up to 300 ACFT. Reality is something that the Deamers and Snowflakes have never been exposed to before. A Rule of Thumb is that Aviation is always the first industry to cut back during a recession and the last to recover after the recession.
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tbaylx
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by tbaylx »

Sharklasers wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:15 pm
ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm
I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
Flair, Canadian North and air north are the least exposed of all Canadian airlines at the moment with completely domestic schedules. Low cost carriers are typically less affected during recessions as long as they are capitalized.
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Sharklasers
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Sharklasers »

tbaylx wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 7:28 pm
Sharklasers wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:15 pm
ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm

I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
Flair, Canadian North and air north are the least exposed of all Canadian airlines at the moment with completely domestic schedules. Low cost carriers are typically less affected during recessions as long as they are capitalized.
Canadian North and Air North are an essential service, I’m sure they will be fine. Flair has an all domestic schedule because they have been in a state of tactical retreat since last summer. With no domestic loads to speak of it doesn’t bode well for any airline.
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greygoose
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by greygoose »

I have to admit i've been feeling pretty low over the last year or so watching all my friends and colleagues move on to their "dream" companies while my behind stayed firmly planted in a left 703 medevac seat. It wasn't a matter of not having the opportunity...it's certainly been there. The choice was merely based on putting my family first and making a very comfortable living while not uprooting my wife and kids to go chase the big tin in a city that cost 3 times as much to live where I do. It was pretty hard most days to feel "stuck" in my current position...family guys probably get this. This week has certainly been an eye opener and made me appreciate where i'm at career wise a lot more. I feel for all the guys and gals that just got into the seat of their dreams and now fear for the worst in the coming weeks/months. Theres a lot of good folks that left the company i'm at and we'd be thrilled to have some return if it gets to that. Hopefully theres a lot more around the country willing to take some good people back too.
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ehv8oar
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ehv8oar »

Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
Those companies had other problems already.

Ryanair, easyJet etc etc must have gone bust then... oh no wait they didn't.
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rudder
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by rudder »

ehv8oar wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:45 am
Your right, that’s how canjet 1, roots, greyhound, jetsgo, Canada 3000, ect ect ect were able to weather 9/11, SARS and the recession so well.
Those companies had other problems already.

Ryanair, easyJet etc etc must have gone bust then... oh no wait they didn't.
Cash-on-hand.

If a company (any company) has it then it will survive a short term cash flow crisis. If not, all bets are off. Credit markets have tightened (lenders more cautious) and capital markets are in free fall.

This rule applies to big airlines and to mom and pop 703 outfits. If this lasts 3 months then the fallout will be minimal. Longer than that and there will be some commercial casualties.
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rxl
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by rxl »

greygoose wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:19 pm I have to admit i've been feeling pretty low over the last year or so watching all my friends and colleagues move on to their "dream" companies while my behind stayed firmly planted in a left 703 medevac seat. It wasn't a matter of not having the opportunity...it's certainly been there. The choice was merely based on putting my family first and making a very comfortable living while not uprooting my wife and kids to go chase the big tin in a city that cost 3 times as much to live where I do. It was pretty hard most days to feel "stuck" in my current position...family guys probably get this. This week has certainly been an eye opener and made me appreciate where i'm at career wise a lot more. I feel for all the guys and gals that just got into the seat of their dreams and now fear for the worst in the coming weeks/months. Theres a lot of good folks that left the company i'm at and we'd be thrilled to have some return if it gets to that. Hopefully theres a lot more around the country willing to take some good people back too.
Nothing to feel low about and you are not “stuck” in anything. It’s called “life” and choices have to be made. Sounds to me like you’ve got it all figured out pretty good.
Family should always come first, and with your job I suspect that you are likely able to be home most nights. To have the ability to be around for the family and to be there for the kids’ hockey, for their dance recitals etc or to just hang out with them is priceless. That may not be as likely in the airline world, especially in the first few years of an airline career. The grass is not always greener.
On the career side of the equation, I’m sure that you’ve honed a fine set of “hands and feet” piloting skills and decision making abilities in your current job that you use each and every day. I hope you take pride in that. The edge can tend to come off some of those hard earned skills over time in the airline world. With modern airliners, it can be easy to end up becoming nothing more than a systems monitor on a robotic transportation device if you allow it.
Good luck to all.
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AirDoan
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by AirDoan »

rxl wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:24 am
greygoose wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:19 pm I have to admit i've been feeling pretty low over the last year or so watching all my friends and colleagues move on to their "dream" companies while my behind stayed firmly planted in a left 703 medevac seat. It wasn't a matter of not having the opportunity...it's certainly been there. The choice was merely based on putting my family first and making a very comfortable living while not uprooting my wife and kids to go chase the big tin in a city that cost 3 times as much to live where I do. It was pretty hard most days to feel "stuck" in my current position...family guys probably get this. This week has certainly been an eye opener and made me appreciate where i'm at career wise a lot more. I feel for all the guys and gals that just got into the seat of their dreams and now fear for the worst in the coming weeks/months. Theres a lot of good folks that left the company i'm at and we'd be thrilled to have some return if it gets to that. Hopefully theres a lot more around the country willing to take some good people back too.
Nothing to feel low about and you are not “stuck” in anything. It’s called “life” and choices have to be made. Sounds to me like you’ve got it all figured out pretty good.
Family should always come first, and with your job I suspect that you are likely able to be home most nights. To have the ability to be around for the family and to be there for the kids’ hockey, for their dance recitals etc or to just hang out with them is priceless. That may not be as likely in the airline world, especially in the first few years of an airline career. The grass is not always greener.
On the career side of the equation, I’m sure that you’ve honed a fine set of “hands and feet” piloting skills and decision making abilities in your current job that you use each and every day. I hope you take pride in that. The edge can tend to come off some of those hard earned skills over time in the airline world. With modern airliners, it can be easy to end up becoming nothing more than a systems monitor on a robotic transportation device if you allow it.
Good luck to all.
Here here. No kids only our rescue dogs, but I'd consider myself lucky to land a gig that allowed a decent homelife/Westcoast life style and decent income. That's my goal. Even had a promising medivac FO lead a week ago that seems to have dried up now. I wish I was in your shoes!
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Inverted2 »

I often wondered what could have been as well. I decided to hang my hat at Jazz. I make a comfortable living here. I’m treated well. Sure I’m a little envious when I see former colleagues now flying 787s post photos of their more exciting layovers around the world while I’m at a boring hotel in Canada. Of course I’m not making as much as a newly upgraded 320 Captain but one thing I have is a seniority number and I wouldn’t want to be near the bottom of any seniority list right now. It’s all about making the best of your situation. Going to be a difficult next several months folks.
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pelmet
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by pelmet »

ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm
I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Just booked a flight on Swoop from one side of the country to the other in May.....Under 100 dollars return, including tax. Never even heard of under 100 dollars for a 1 way ticket.
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Civic »

greygoose wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:19 pm I have to admit i've been feeling pretty low over the last year or so watching all my friends and colleagues move on to their "dream" companies while my behind stayed firmly planted in a left 703 medevac seat. It wasn't a matter of not having the opportunity...it's certainly been there. The choice was merely based on putting my family first and making a very comfortable living while not uprooting my wife and kids to go chase the big tin in a city that cost 3 times as much to live where I do. It was pretty hard most days to feel "stuck" in my current position...family guys probably get this. This week has certainly been an eye opener and made me appreciate where i'm at career wise a lot more. I feel for all the guys and gals that just got into the seat of their dreams and now fear for the worst in the coming weeks/months. Theres a lot of good folks that left the company i'm at and we'd be thrilled to have some return if it gets to that. Hopefully theres a lot more around the country willing to take some good people back too.

It’s not the size of the plane we fly in my opinion, it’s finding that combination of flying as a career and living a normal family back home. Don’t worry what others are flying , you be the best pilot for what you fly and be home on a normal life situation .
Trust me I’ve been there and done that.
Love what you do not necessarily what you fly.
Fly high my friend and fly safe
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CPT.HarshColdReality
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CPT.HarshColdReality »

rxl wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:24 am
greygoose wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 8:19 pm I have to admit i've been feeling pretty low over the last year or so watching all my friends and colleagues move on to their "dream" companies while my behind stayed firmly planted in a left 703 medevac seat. It wasn't a matter of not having the opportunity...it's certainly been there. The choice was merely based on putting my family first and making a very comfortable living while not uprooting my wife and kids to go chase the big tin in a city that cost 3 times as much to live where I do. It was pretty hard most days to feel "stuck" in my current position...family guys probably get this. This week has certainly been an eye opener and made me appreciate where i'm at career wise a lot more. I feel for all the guys and gals that just got into the seat of their dreams and now fear for the worst in the coming weeks/months. Theres a lot of good folks that left the company i'm at and we'd be thrilled to have some return if it gets to that. Hopefully theres a lot more around the country willing to take some good people back too.
Nothing to feel low about and you are not “stuck” in anything. It’s called “life” and choices have to be made. Sounds to me like you’ve got it all figured out pretty good.
Family should always come first, and with your job I suspect that you are likely able to be home most nights. To have the ability to be around for the family and to be there for the kids’ hockey, for their dance recitals etc or to just hang out with them is priceless. That may not be as likely in the airline world, especially in the first few years of an airline career. The grass is not always greener.
On the career side of the equation, I’m sure that you’ve honed a fine set of “hands and feet” piloting skills and decision making abilities in your current job that you use each and every day. I hope you take pride in that. The edge can tend to come off some of those hard earned skills over time in the airline world. With modern airliners, it can be easy to end up becoming nothing more than a systems monitor on a robotic transportation device if you allow it.
Good luck to all.
On point.
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palebird
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by palebird »

Air North is not essential. The only destination they serve that may be termed essential is Old Crow. The rest of their destinations are all simply convenience. You can drive everywhere they fly to on a scheduled basis except Old Crow.
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by CaptainHaddock »

pelmet wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:16 pm
ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm
I can also see Flair and Swoop having a hard time because of this... with their prices they need excellent load-factors, and that's not going to happen if people need to save their pennies to pay off debt incurred by this whole shit-show.
I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Just booked a flight on Swoop from one side of the country to the other in May.....Under 100 dollars return, including tax. Never even heard of under 100 dollars for a 1 way ticket.
A fool and his money is easily parted. So you could have bought a ticket on AC or WestJet at a great discount right now to I imagine, probably not $100. But you probably won’t even get to take the Swoop flight, where as you would with the other two. Do you know why tickets that cheap don’t exist-because it’s unsustainable.
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by pelmet »

CaptainHaddock wrote: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:20 am
pelmet wrote: Sun Mar 15, 2020 2:16 pm
ehv8oar wrote: Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:11 pm

I disagree, low cost carriers are the ones who are least impacted by events like this as people still want to travel but don't want to spend much money so book on the low cost carriers instead.
Just booked a flight on Swoop from one side of the country to the other in May.....Under 100 dollars return, including tax. Never even heard of under 100 dollars for a 1 way ticket.
A fool and his money is easily parted. So you could have bought a ticket on AC or WestJet at a great discount right now to I imagine, probably not $100. But you probably won’t even get to take the Swoop flight, where as you would with the other two. Do you know why tickets that cheap don’t exist-because it’s unsustainable.
Fool maybe...but it is only 100 bucks so if I don't get it back, I'll survive. If they cancel...or I cancel, theoretically I should get the money back. Just checked WJ(from a nearby bigger airport) and AC at $585 return which is the same price I have been paying for the same route purchased a couple of months ahead(no discount). And, I checked AC for a flight today on a short haul less than 1 hour flight today...$445 dollars.

So let the smart guys fly at the same old high price last minute tickets. This fool is going to take a chance. If the Swoop flight is gone, the WJ flight may be gone as well.

P.S. Noticed some $29 one-way transcan fares on Swoop as well.
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