Grab a seat. The music is stopping

[flyinhigh]

Appears it has mutated again.

https://youtu.be/R1v0uFms68U

[Trematode]

There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic

I don't think it's so much the actual mortality rate as it is the sheer number of people projected to be infected. A small percentage of an enormous number can still be significant, and in this case, even the numbers on the lower end of the estimates are sobering.

World governments and their citizens are right to be concerned, because this has the potential to absolutely overwhelm our healthcare infrastructures, and that outcome would only exacerbate any clinical effects the disease has on the actual population (leading to a bit of an unfortunate negative feedback loop).

I would respectfully point out that it may be yourself and others like you whom are displaying a lack of critical thought. Isn't it kind of a classic human factors discussion? An old experienced VFR guy decides to go flying on a beautiful day, despite a forecast of severe thunderstorms and a highly unstable air mass conducive to rapidly changing and violent weather -- I mean, he knows the local weather like the back of his hand, and in all his years flying, nothing like what they're calling for has ever happened in his neck of the woods on a day like today.

What we've got from the professionals in disease prevention now is a nasty forecast, even though the sun is still shining in North America. We have reports of the storm in its early stages from neighboring regions, and it's not pretty (16 million quarantined in Italy?!).

It would be foolish to not take this seriously.

Your experience is limited to those previous storms you've mentioned. Your lifetime. The experts having been pointing out from the start that this one has the potential to be far worse, and unlike anything we've had to deal with so far in the modern world, in our lifetimes. It's human to not be able to see past one's own experience, but those that can learn from others and/or interpret a forecast for what it's worth and take it seriously will have a much better idea of what they can expect to deal with in the future.

I'm concerned mostly about how the scale of this is going to affect the world economy, and I think you should be, too. I'm concerned for my elderly loved ones. I fear that governments will be too paralyzed by political divisions to enact effective containment measures. And that fear is completely rational.

[mixturerich]

People are blaming the media but really they’re just passing on information from health experts, so...

[corethatthermal]

Many are saying that there is a great concern IF the virus becomes "community spread" BUT in Canada , they are doing next to NOTHING at the airports to STOP the virus from being imported and able for community spread ( not to mention at the border checkpoints) You CANNOT have community spread IF you STOP the influx of travelling spreaders! Folks like WHO say it is not a Pandemic until wide-scale community spread globally, well, we well know the virus is quite capable of "community spread" ANYWHERE it is foolishly imported ! Look at China and Italy and S Korea! You don't leave the welcoming sign on for the enemy to come in and then wonder WHY they are spreading destruction in the community ! It is also pure foolishness to say that elevated screening and quarantining folks from hotspots at airport arrivals is a waste of time because its gonna happen anyways !!

['97 Tercel]

More CAPITALS and exclamation marks next time

[Eric Janson]

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

If the numbers of infected are higher than reported (I agree that that is the case) then isn't it logical to assume that the numbers of deaths are higher too?

More than enough evidence from China of bodies being cremated without cause of death being established.

No testing = No cases = No problem.

This is the negligent attitude that has landed us where we are today. There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.

We are going to pay a high price for Globalism and Open Borders imho.

Looks like the job market outside of N America has evaporated.

Looks like a wild ride in the Stock Markets coming up this week.

[Ki-ll]

There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.

Where are you getting this info?
WHO says otherwise.

[derateNO]

It's literally the biggest issue with this virus. Have you been living under a rock?

[Ki-ll]

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

What am I missing here?

[derateNO]

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.

To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

What am I missing here?

"With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19."

Major drivers... The problem here is you are a-symptomatic for up to 14+ days. That's not the case with the normal flu.

So even minor ability to spread it when showing no symptoms over a greater period of time is not ideal.

Trust me I'm a pilot.

[Ki-ll]

Yeah, I don’t think you know what you are talking about when it comes to corona viruses.

[derateNO]

[dhc#]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... ce=twitter

[Eric Janson]

There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.

Where are you getting this info?
WHO says otherwise.

I just looked at the WHO website. What I stated above is there - buried in the Q and A about the virus and rather hard to find.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Yes, Covid-19 is highly contagious, just like the influenza.

Now, why do we have a HUGE outbreak of Covid-19 and not the Influenza?

Vaccines. There is no vaccine that is available to the masses for Covid-19 yet. That being said, there are vaccines that are already developed and are currently in trials.

I expect that if the vaccines are approved in the next month or two, it will be 3-5 months before a large percentage of the population is vaccinated and/or have already created anti-bodies due to catching and recovering from the virus.

[Eric Janson]

Regarding Vaccines.

From what I've been reading - it will be a year from now before a vaccine is available.

That assumes there is one - there still isn't one for SARS or MERS.

The issue is testing - there may be unexpected side effects. Testing takes time - there are no shortcuts.

There may also be an issue with the different strains - one vaccine may not work against all the strains (that is the same with the Flu).

[47north]

Just heard from a reliable source that capacity cuts will be formally announced this week and there will be some Jazz aircraft parked in the short term.

Just a guess, but I doubt we will see layoffs at least in the short term. The extra pilots will be carried in the hope the downturn will be short lived.

Anybody still think this won't affect Canada?

[goldeneagle]

Don't know about AC but Warren Buffet is betting that Delta is under valued right now.

No comparing the two stocks. Warren Buffet bought Delta because it pays roughly 4% dividend return. Air Canada doesn't pay a dividend, so it's just a speculative play.

[dhc#]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20X1PS

[mbav8r]

Perhaps this deserves its own thread but any bets on how fast the wages will drop at the companies who were paying 100g for king air pilots? The ones who were pre massive job growth were paying peanuts going back to it.
I suspect it won’t be too long, if their in boxes start to fill up with resumes