Grab a seat. The music is stopping

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yycflyguy
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by yycflyguy »

altiplano wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:51 pm
complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:32 pm
digits_ wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:33 am

That sounds impossible. IQ is defined to be 100 on average. They can still be stupider though.
Loads of studies and articles, it's not really news.

IQ Scores Are Falling in "Worrying" Reversal of 20th Century Intelligence Boom

Not really hard to believe observing the vast bulk of people you see. Tide-pod-eating-selfie-taking morons are everywhere. And now they've got a new scare to latch onto. :lol:
They made a movie about it.

https://youtu.be/sP2tUW0HDHA
Why am I only discovering this NOW?
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Eric Janson
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Eric Janson »

GhostRider6 wrote: Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:55 pm As in this virus is not as bad as the flu?

There has been far more deaths from the flu this year than the coronavirus since it surfaced.

How is this a multi year black swan event? This virus has been recently discovered...Are you inferring it’s been around longer than portrayed?

There is a market correction occurring .. but things are already on the upswing ..( for now at least)

China is asking its citizens to go back to work...
The number of Corona Virus infections and deaths is still increasing - it will exceed the Flu statistics in a few months at the most. Our so called "Leaders" are doing nothing to stop the spread and are totally unprepared.

There are now 2 strains of this Virus - "S" and "L" variants - so this virus can mutate.

Since the virus is also spreading in countries with a tropical climate I'm not sure that warmer weather is going to help.

By Multi-Year Black Swan Event I mean this is just starting and the consequences will be with us for several years imho.

There's a huge Economic shock coming.

IATA estimates losses to the Airlines will be between 63 and 113 Billion USD - that's increased a few times already.

Satellite data from overhead China show pollution is at an extremely low level - that means most factories are not operating. I don't trust anything China says or any figures they publish.

Australia just released tourist bookings - down 32-100% from the countries most tourists come from. I'm currently in a remote part of Australia and even here they just had a Corona Virus case.

Lufthansa is looking at grounding their entire A380 fleet and project that they may need to ground half their fleet.

I have second hand information that one of the smaller EU flag carriers has just implemented a complete hiring/training stop across the board. That includes all Command upgrades and cabin crew training.

N America seems to be running 4-6 weeks behind the rest of the World.
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7ECA
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by 7ECA »

Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm The number of Corona Virus infections and deaths is still increasing - it will exceed the Flu statistics in a few months at the most. Our so called "Leaders" are doing nothing to stop the spread and are totally unprepared.
There's no possible way of stopping the spread of a highly contagious disease. You can mitigate it somewhat, through quarantines and implementing a cordon sanitaire - but there's no way of preventing it from spreading totally. Look at the efforts to kill off malaria, if you want a really interesting case. China's efforts have actually helped markedly, if they'd have just gone on business as usual, there'd be a lot more cases around the world than there currently are. By slowing the spread they gave everyone else a chance to get their shit together and prepare - doesn't mean that's what's happened, of course.
Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm There are now 2 strains of this Virus - "S" and "L" variants - so this virus can mutate.
All viruses can, and do mutate. It hardly makes COVID-19 "novel". Generally coronaviruses mutate into less lethal, less contagious diseases. Which explains how previous contagious coronaviruses like SARS/MERS "died out". It's not that we were able to contain them... Same goes for the Spanish Flu, significantly more potent than COVID-19, but it died out, even after having two periods of heightened activity.

Eric Janson wrote: Fri Mar 06, 2020 5:16 pm There's a huge Economic shock coming.
No doubt about it, but the virus is just the straw that broke this proverbial camel's back. It's been in the making for years now.
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KAG
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by KAG »

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, good saying, applies today. Sure this is blown up BUT its still going to suck. Aviation is the first to get hit, and the last to recover. People are panicked, this WILL have an impact on us for the foreseeable future. How bad it gets? who knows, but this is going to hurt. Grab a seat, luckily theres plenty to get.
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ikarus
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by ikarus »

I agree KAG.

This is maybe over inflated and in some places blown out of proportions ...BUT nevertheless, the damage is done, thanks to media as well complete unpreparedness by majority of countries around the world ....This will be one hell of a roller coaster ride! Most likely a downhill ride...
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flyinhigh
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by flyinhigh »

Appears it has mutated again.

https://youtu.be/R1v0uFms68U
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Trematode
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Trematode »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am There have been and will continue to be massive financial losses. Not just for airlines. It's no secret that airlines have razor-thin margins and the supply chain is global, thus vulnerable. But Flybe is a non-sequitur, they should have folded much sooner.

It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.

9/11, Y2K, GFC, on and on. There will always be another crisis. Everyone likes to think their crisis is "special". It isn't.

The key differences between this outbreak and previous global crises are that 1. people are stupider now (literally: IQ's have been dropping for decades) and 2. modern social media amplifies stupidity and facilitates the spread of disinformation, either unwittingly or deliberately. Lack of critical thought added to instant, easy information spread is the perfect recipe for a disproportionate response to any given threat.

And really, if it turns out that those of us not freaking out are wrong and Covid-19 is TEOTWAWKI*, will irrational fear help prevent it?

'The unknown is so much more frightening': A tiny number summons a huge, historic panic
I don't think it's so much the actual mortality rate as it is the sheer number of people projected to be infected. A small percentage of an enormous number can still be significant, and in this case, even the numbers on the lower end of the estimates are sobering.

World governments and their citizens are right to be concerned, because this has the potential to absolutely overwhelm our healthcare infrastructures, and that outcome would only exacerbate any clinical effects the disease has on the actual population (leading to a bit of an unfortunate negative feedback loop).

I would respectfully point out that it may be yourself and others like you whom are displaying a lack of critical thought. Isn't it kind of a classic human factors discussion? An old experienced VFR guy decides to go flying on a beautiful day, despite a forecast of severe thunderstorms and a highly unstable air mass conducive to rapidly changing and violent weather -- I mean, he knows the local weather like the back of his hand, and in all his years flying, nothing like what they're calling for has ever happened in his neck of the woods on a day like today.

What we've got from the professionals in disease prevention now is a nasty forecast, even though the sun is still shining in North America. We have reports of the storm in its early stages from neighboring regions, and it's not pretty (16 million quarantined in Italy?!).

It would be foolish to not take this seriously.

Your experience is limited to those previous storms you've mentioned. Your lifetime. The experts having been pointing out from the start that this one has the potential to be far worse, and unlike anything we've had to deal with so far in the modern world, in our lifetimes. It's human to not be able to see past one's own experience, but those that can learn from others and/or interpret a forecast for what it's worth and take it seriously will have a much better idea of what they can expect to deal with in the future.

I'm concerned mostly about how the scale of this is going to affect the world economy, and I think you should be, too. I'm concerned for my elderly loved ones. I fear that governments will be too paralyzed by political divisions to enact effective containment measures. And that fear is completely rational.
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mixturerich
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by mixturerich »

People are blaming the media but really they’re just passing on information from health experts, so...
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corethatthermal
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by corethatthermal »

Many are saying that there is a great concern IF the virus becomes "community spread" BUT in Canada , they are doing next to NOTHING at the airports to STOP the virus from being imported and able for community spread ( not to mention at the border checkpoints) You CANNOT have community spread IF you STOP the influx of travelling spreaders! Folks like WHO say it is not a Pandemic until wide-scale community spread globally, well, we well know the virus is quite capable of "community spread" ANYWHERE it is foolishly imported ! Look at China and Italy and S Korea! You don't leave the welcoming sign on for the enemy to come in and then wonder WHY they are spreading destruction in the community ! It is also pure foolishness to say that elevated screening and quarantining folks from hotspots at airport arrivals is a waste of time because its gonna happen anyways !!
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'97 Tercel
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by '97 Tercel »

More CAPITALS and exclamation marks next time
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Eric Janson
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Eric Janson »

complexintentions wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:58 am It's true this is worse than the flu - although, if the true numbers of infected are higher than reported, the mortality rate is actually much less than the current estimate, (that's how math works), which is in the 1-3.4% range. For reference, SARS had a 10% kill rate, MERS was more like 35%.
If the numbers of infected are higher than reported (I agree that that is the case) then isn't it logical to assume that the numbers of deaths are higher too?

More than enough evidence from China of bodies being cremated without cause of death being established.

No testing = No cases = No problem.

This is the negligent attitude that has landed us where we are today. There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.

We are going to pay a high price for Globalism and Open Borders imho.

Looks like the job market outside of N America has evaporated.

Looks like a wild ride in the Stock Markets coming up this week.
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Ki-ll
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Ki-ll »

Eric Janson wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:33 am There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.
Where are you getting this info?
WHO says otherwise.
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

It's literally the biggest issue with this virus. Have you been living under a rock?
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Ki-ll
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Ki-ll »

Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

What am I missing here?
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

Ki-ll wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:16 am
Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days.
To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/ ... march-2020

What am I missing here?
"With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19."

Major drivers... The problem here is you are a-symptomatic for up to 14+ days. That's not the case with the normal flu.

So even minor ability to spread it when showing no symptoms over a greater period of time is not ideal.

Trust me I'm a pilot.
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Ki-ll
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Ki-ll »

Yeah, I don’t think you know what you are talking about when it comes to corona viruses.
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derateNO
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by derateNO »

Image
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dhc#
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by dhc# »

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Eric Janson
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by Eric Janson »

Ki-ll wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:52 am
Eric Janson wrote: Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:33 am There are still people who do not understand that you can be infectious without showing any symptoms yourself.
Where are you getting this info?
WHO says otherwise.
I just looked at the WHO website. What I stated above is there - buried in the Q and A about the virus and rather hard to find.
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notwhoyouthinkIam
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Re: Grab a seat. The music is stopping

Post by notwhoyouthinkIam »

Yes, Covid-19 is highly contagious, just like the influenza.

Now, why do we have a HUGE outbreak of Covid-19 and not the Influenza?

Vaccines. There is no vaccine that is available to the masses for Covid-19 yet. That being said, there are vaccines that are already developed and are currently in trials.

I expect that if the vaccines are approved in the next month or two, it will be 3-5 months before a large percentage of the population is vaccinated and/or have already created anti-bodies due to catching and recovering from the virus.
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