Anyone lost faith in Porter's restart

[Chocolatlab]

There have been four deferral restarts and another one pending.

Does anyone still believe that Porter's restart is possible.

Every other airline (aside from International Charters) is currently flying and attempting to bring aviation back with reduced frequency but reasonable capacity.

[GoHomeLeg]

Is most of Porter's passangers clientele business travelers who fly between business hubs such as Boston, Chicago, Newark, Montreal, Toronto, etc...?

With everyone doing Zoom calls, I find it hard for their business model to pick up anytime soon.

[photofly]

Ssssh... don't say such awful things. If you don't talk about it, the worst can't happen.

[pelmet]

Isn't downtown Toronto fairly deserted these days.

[goingnowherefast]

Much of their traffic is trans-border. With the border still mostly closed, what's the point in flying? Maybe they need to make a domestic push?

[Teeg]

So...
Border with the US is closed.
You fly east and then have to quarantine for 14 days.
All govt travel is cancelled in Ont.
Why would they be flying?

[Inverted2]

So...
Border with the US is closed.
You fly east and then have to quarantine for 14 days.
All govt travel is cancelled in Ont.
Why would they be flying?

This.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

Last time I was on the island, they were running the engines, I assume as part of a maintenance schedule. It felt... eerie, to smell A1 exhaust when I knew the dash-8's weren't flying. So at least, Porter hasn't lost faith in Porter's restart, for what it's worth.

It would be a shame - Porter really is a fantastic airline.

[Cessna 180]

Private equity, they're going to take their time instead of bleeding cash. Very little debt, so they don't have the worry about servicing that while they're shut down. Other operators are bleeding cash in the tune of millions per day.

They owned almost every aircraft outright before the shutdown. If they were going to go belly up, it would have been easier to sit on the aircraft, lay off all the pilots, and sell the aircraft after when prices go up. Instead they took a large loan so they can be prepared when the market suits the business. Pilots and FAs are still on payroll (CEWS) with a company paid benefits package while they're shutdown.

I'm sure it's not ideal, but it's possible to recover. The majority of their market has been shut down by various governments (east coast, USA, etc.).

[Grey_Wolf]

Does anyone still believe that Porter's restart is possible.

Like others have mentioned, it's all based on demand and restrictions.

Can they run a domestic operation? Sure but with the Atlantic bubble in place, doing only ON/QC; the question remains, what's the demand?

If they lifted the bubble, then maybe they could make a run at it, but with traffic down 95%, and the CBC pushing fear of travelling, I doubt it.

Going into the USA, at this time, not a chance until the cheeto-in-charge gets his population to listen to science and drive the cases numbers down. With the media saying the border might be closed for the rest of the year, that's another obstacle to over come. Also CEWS being extended to December is, in my opinion, an indirect way of saying "let's kick the can down the road". From what I've been told, Porter's market is 70% Domestic, and 30% USA.

My previous best guess was the reopening might be by Thanksgiving, but at this point, the pessimist in me says, it won't be until Easter 2021. Holiday season may drive up demand, but pending on the political landscape, and active Covid cases, I'd speculate that people will stay home. Economic factors (9 months of Covid of staying at home, draining savings) might prevent people from travelling. Jan-Feb-Mar are typically slow months for airlines, so ... Easter 2021.

[SteveWhite]

Have they been keeping crews in the sim or has training stopped as well

[ptc]

I have wondered why they dont just operate of their YHZ base and run an East Coast bubble airline. Tap into the market that AC pulled out of

[Yycjetdriver]

I have wondered why they dont just operate of their YHZ base and run an East Coast bubble airline. Tap into the market that AC pulled out of

Well the tap into the Atlantic bubble would not work. They’re not going to run a Q from YHZ to any of the NB destinations (those were mostly people connecting elsewhere) and any of the other destinations in the Atlantic are being served still (yhz-yyt) aside from YHZ-YYG, also not a Q type flight. Maybe they could get a few passengers on a yqx-yhz or other routes but probably not nearly enough to justify keeping the base open.

[fliter]

The restarts are pushed back due to lack of demand, not the company's inability to restart. They are losing very little money right now, but they will be burning through tons of cash the moment they fire up those engines. Their main markets are basically all shut down right now by the 14-day self-isolation requirement. Everyone at Porter wants to get going again but everyone also realizes that restarting too early will kill the company. No one expects the company to be making money at the beginning, the first year will definitely be in the red, but it's one thing to be in the red and the other to outright go bankrupt.

[igorcanuck]

“Due to ongoing government travel restrictions, we are modifying our return-to-service date to Oct. 7.”

[The Raven]

The word I hear is that if the US/CAN border isn’t open by August 31st, Porter doesn’t plan to restart at all.

[Grey_Wolf]

The word I hear is that if the US/CAN border isn’t open by August 31st, Porter doesn’t plan to restart at all.

I'd be interested in knowing your source.

At this point, the border isn't going to be open by Aug 31st. The current restriction in place is Aug 21st, with the option to kick it down the road as need be.

Hypothetically, let's say that the border does open, it gives Porter 10 days to get the company in ready status. Unless they are actively preparing for the go-ahead, it's putting "the cart before the horse". Which airline would willingly get started before "all the ducks are in a row"?

Recent news article sums the delay to Oct 7th

"Key factors affecting the ability to restart service include the Canada-U.S. border remaining closed to non-essential travel until at least Aug. 21, the Atlantic Canada travel bubble that restricts movement beyond the region, non-essential travel advisories issued by governments and mandatory quarantine rules."

Read between the lines ... too many restrictions, not enough demand

[Loon-A-Tic]

This being reported by CTV news,

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/porter-airli ... -1.5050554

[Loner]

The word I hear is that if the US/CAN border isn’t open by August 31st, Porter doesn’t plan to restart at all.

I find it interesting that on April 23rd 2019 you were inquiring about Porter Ground School and now you are spreading negative rumors about their futur...
Refrain!