Airlines need to shut down to survive

[whipline]

Gilles couldn’t be more correct. Every airline is at risk right now. There’s no help from the government. There’s no plans to open the border and create safe travel corridors. If you think your safe at AC I’d think again. No one is. Why do you think they raised capital? Nothing coming in, lots going out. Only one conclusion unless something changes drastically. And that’s for everyone.

[tbaylx]

Gilles couldn’t be more correct. Every airline is at risk right now. There’s no help from the government. There’s no plans to open the border and create safe travel corridors. If you think your safe at AC I’d think again. No one is. Why do you think they raised capital? Nothing coming in, lots going out. Only one conclusion unless something changes drastically. And that’s for everyone.

I'm not sure pilots have grasped just how dire straights all airlines are in at the moment. No one is immune. You can't continue to lose millions of dollars a day and sustain that for any significant length of time without consequences.

Everyone was hoping it would be a V shaped recovery and we'd be back to normal by late summer. it's becoming more and more apparent that this will last for a considerable time and it will be years for recovery. People are scared so many won't fly till they feel safe again which will take time even after Covid is not a thing. Combine that with quarantines and various different policies across the world and even within canada you're looking at a long time before demand comes back for anything other than domestic flying. Once the easy measures are taken to reduce costs and bleeding then the more difficult ones begin, more layoffs and CCAA protection for not only airlines but airports and service providers.

[brooks]

From Morning Star.

"Many investors are betting on a rebound for Air Canada stock. That would lead to 200% upside or more. The more likely scenario, however, is that the company goes bankrupt. Even if Air Canada can continue to raise capital over the next 12 months, the dilution will wipe out any upside for current investors."

Doesn't look good in the short/long term for AC. It could take more than 3 years to pay all this debt back. Too many wide-bodies and too much exposure to international markets. I don't want to see another bailout but they are still burning through way too much cash.

[Gilles Hudicourt]

The quarantine for all people entering Canada and entry restrictions for foreigners has been extended to Sept 30.

Another nail in Canadian aviation, aerospace and hospitality industry.....

Meanwhile, since June 2020, Total weekly deaths in Canada have been at record low........

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71- ... 17-eng.htm

[termerair]

The quarantine for all people entering Canada and entry restrictions for foreigners has been extended to Sept 30.
Another nail in Canadian aviation, aerospace and hospitality industry.....

That’s enough!!!

They are acting as if they want to stand by until the pandemic is over... What’s the plan? 0 case, 0 death, 0 patients at the hospital...? We need to move forward, the virus is not going away anytime soon! The candidates vaccins are not going to be efficient or be found tomorrow...

Are our governments going to push back the deadline month after month for the next 5 years...? This is ridiculous!

And yes, the industry is going to suffer deeply. Let’s get ready for impact : “Brace, Brace, Brace”!

Good luck all!

T.

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

What's the solution. Do we organise and march to ottawa? do we all rent 152 and clogged up the taxiways in YOW?

[Gino Under]

Well, the Americans don't seem to be clued into the Covid 19 pandemic at all. 185,000 dead and increasing. Do we really want air travel between the US and Canada to function under modified conditions??? Seriously?
Don't be surprised if our border with the US remains closed for the rest of the year. Quite possibly, as it stands, until well into 2021.
As for Europe, Aviation Week published this ...

PARIS—COVID-19-related travel restrictions between European countries, including Germany and the UK, are tightening up, as the novel coronavirus spread accelerates in the region and threatens a fragile recovery in air travel demand.

Germany is introducing a mandatory 14-day quarantine for passengers arriving from what it considers to be risk areas, in a move likely to come into effect Oct. 1. There is the possibility of shortening the isolation period if a COVID-19 test that can be taken on the fifth day of quarantine proves negative.

The UK government has removed the Czech Republic, Jamaica and Switzerland from its “travel corridors” safe list, meaning arrivals into the UK from those countries must self-isolate for 14 days as of 4:00 a.m. Aug. 29. Conversely the UK has added Cuba to the travel corridors safe list from the same date.

German aviation industry association BDL and Lufthansa say the new regime is effectively a new lockdown that cuts off travel to 80% of the world.

The industry had welcomed a previous measure introduced by Germany three weeks ago whereby passengers arriving from a risk area or risk country had to take a COVID-19 test upon arrival. BDL and Lufthansa favor a mandatory test involving incoming passengers from more defined risk areas.

Recently added to Germany’s at-risk list are areas of Europe where the virus spread is developing rapidly, such as France’s Ile de France region, which includes Paris, and its Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region. Also added were French overseas territories French Guiana, Guadeloupe, and St Martin; parts of Croatia; Antwerp and Brussels in Belgium; and Gibraltar.

On Aug. 25, Eurocontrol said that the demand recovery in Europe had plateaued with traffic levels at around 48.5% of 2019 levels in the week to Aug. 23. “The recovery has hit a plateau ... state restrictions are having an impact,” Eurocontrol director general Eamonn Brennan wrote on Twitter.

Summertime is normally a lucrative vacation season in Europe. However, as many airlines have been building back capacity and seeking to attract wary travelers with cheap deals and flexible options, the aviation industry has been vocal in its criticism of inconsistent travel rules across the region. The latest complaint came from Charlie Cornish, CEO of London Stansted Airport’s parent company Manchester Airport Group (MAG).

Cornish noted that at this time in 2019—the last Monday in August is a UK public holiday—more than 280,000 passengers passed through Stansted in just one weekend. The figure is set to be less than a third of that in 2020.

“Throughout the pandemic there has been no evidence of any recognition from the government of the need to protect the travel industry and enable it to recover from what is undoubtedly the biggest crisis it has ever faced,” Cornish said Aug. 27.

Cornish blasted the UK government’s failure to provide financial support for the industry, as has happened in France, Germany and other European countries.

“The impact of this decision has been amplified many times over by its sluggish, chaotic and illogical approach to travel restrictions,” Cornish added.

The UK’s system of travel corridors has been criticized following last-minute decisions to remove countries, including Spain and France, from the safe list in recent weeks. The move led to panicked early returns for many thousands of British holidaymakers already abroad and seeking to avoid having to quarantine. Although a move to add Portugal to the UK’s travel corridors list was welcomed by the industry, with Ryanair adding extra flights in response to the announcement.

“As things stand, around 50% of the most popular markets with British tourists have effectively been closed-off,” Cornish said. “Some will point to positive news about Portugal becoming restriction-free again, but with so little of our summer remaining, so many popular destinations needlessly closed-off, so many jobs at risk and so little confidence our Prime Minister understands this urgency, you can understand why our industry feels left behind.”

We're in this for the long haul. Like it or not.
Gino Under

[Gino Under]

Too many pilots not enough flights

https://blueskypit.com/2020/07/13/too-m ... rm=Topical

[garfield]

Worst than an horror movie...

[Cappo1]

This is no surprise to some of us who have had our eye on what's going on around the globe and with airlines all across the world. We have been cautioned that there will be a second wave in the fall and we have been warned daily on all media sources. This should not be a shock . Maybe reality is setting in. Marching Ottawa is not going to send a memo to CV19 to tell it to bypass Canadian airlines . Example 79,000 cases per day in India . Record increases in Spain to peak pandemic rates. France is exceeding 5,000 cases per day. International airline travel should have stopped the minute it was determined China was not in control of their outbreak, and airlines called the government afoul for even considering imposing flight restrictions worldwide, while dr. Tam repeatedly called for no concern until her cover had been blown : working her second job on behalf of the WHO who was under China's scrutiny since the beginning. Seems the WHO and IATA have been shoulder to shoulder amidst the thick of it all by boasting their so-called HePA filters and encouraging selling every seat on board to maximize profits. so Gilles, why bring all this up now? you've not mentioned the articles listing all the domestic and intl flights with proven contamination on board. this is not new as some reporters have been at the scene in YYz as early as March, asking passengers what safety protocols were implemented by customs upon their arrival. one of our own Fas contracted it while doing service coming back from Frankfurt. this was well known through the industry but you never talked about that. You've failed to mention the Porto flights in which whole crews have been quarantined for two weeks and now suddenly you're raging and then you smack me down for having to drive down from my cottage two days prior to my HKG for the damn test up my nose!, considering me a kid playing Microsoft flight simulator. im not mentioning nazis like you were. I think your rage is caused by knowing AC Is carrying your passengers and the harsh reality that transat may not survive has finally hit you.

[FL320]

This is no surprise to some of us who have had our eye on what's going on around the globe and with airlines all across the world. We have been cautioned that there will be a second wave in the fall and we have been warned daily on all media sources. This should not be a shock . Maybe reality is setting in. Marching Ottawa is not going to send a memo to CV19 to tell it to bypass Canadian airlines . Example 79,000 cases per day in India . Record increases in Spain to peak pandemic rates. France is exceeding 5,000 cases per day. International airline travel should have stopped the minute it was determined China was not in control of their outbreak, and airlines called the government afoul for even considering imposing flight restrictions worldwide, while dr. Tam repeatedly called for no concern until her cover had been blown : working her second job on behalf of the WHO who was under China's scrutiny since the beginning. Seems the WHO and IATA have been shoulder to shoulder amidst the thick of it all by boasting their so-called HePA filters and encouraging selling every seat on board to maximize profits. so Gilles, why bring all this up now? you've not mentioned the articles listing all the domestic and intl flights with proven contamination on board. this is not new as some reporters have been at the scene in YYz as early as March, asking passengers what safety protocols were implemented by customs upon their arrival. one of our own Fas contracted it while doing service coming back from Frankfurt. this was well known through the industry but you never talked about that. You've failed to mention the Porto flights in which whole crews have been quarantined for two weeks and now suddenly you're raging and then you smack me down for having to drive down from my cottage two days prior to my HKG for the damn test up my nose!, considering me a kid playing Microsoft flight simulator. im not mentioning nazis like you were. I think your rage is caused by knowing AC Is carrying your passengers and the harsh reality that transat may not survive has finally hit you.

Total garbage as usual.
Scientists still think incubation may take place within 10 days; I really wonder how can anyone prove that he got infected by covid during his trip and in flight: that is pure bullshit.

We have been cautioned that there will be a second wave in the fall and we have been warned daily on all media sources.

If they could predict the future we wouldn’t even be talking about this virus..

Just for your info the main reason why cases are increasing in France is that more people are being tested: this has been officially announced as is by Macron et many epidemiologists. Hospital reanimation rooms are empty at the moment and death rate associated to covid is close to 0.
But if you wanna trust the medias and look like a stupid sheep it’s your choice of course. This is what happen when you have a population with so many non educated people and retards.

[RippleRock]

Here is what we shut the airline industry down for. This is a Canadian Government website.

90% of people who actually died were over 70 and had at least 1 co-morbid issue, like heart disease, diabetes or were already in poor health.

These people were already "on the way out", Covid was a "catalyst" that tipped them over the edge, like any other acquired ailment could have done. The young and healthy ARE NOT AT RISK.

Very curious to see how many who died were smokers and had reduced lung function prior to infection. My bet is most, since nearly ALL people who lived as adults during the 50' and 60's and 70's smoked. That is the EXACT demographic that is spiking this death statistic and scaring everyone----even the healthy---

CONNECT THE DOTS.

[alkaseltzer]

That is rather troubling, but I think there was a lot of fat there to trim.particularity Pearson which has been gouging every place it can for years. The party is over, and raising departure fees, parking fees, tenant rents will be counterproductive in getting going again

I wish that was true!! Aren't they all just passing the cost to the consumers...??? How many fees and taxes will be added under the covid banner. Not what the consumer wants...

Yoo hoo....if Gabor Lukacs is reading this, why don't you go after Nav Canada fees and GTAA fees? You're silent when those entities barely lay off anyone but you relish Hungarian liquor when you see the airlines get a beating. Guess what, the customer is the one who is getting nailed.

[Gino Under]

Not much, if anything, has been forthcoming from our government. It makes you wonder what the ultimate fate of our airline industry will be?
It can't be good. With or without financial aid.
We are not alone.

Current Aid Insufficient To Carry Industry Through Crisis, IATA Says
Jens Flottau, Aviation Week

FRANKFURT—IATA sees the need for further government financial assistance as airlines continue to suffer amid sluggish air travel recovery.

“The initial round of measures will need to be topped up,” IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said Sept. 1. But de Juniac made clear that “the debt burden cannot be increased.”

Governments have injected around $123 billion into the global airline industry since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an earlier IATA summary. The support—where it was made available—has helped avoid mass insolvencies of airlines. Yet, IATA now says the support will not be sufficient to carry the industry through the prolonged crisis.

The industry body is not specifically asking for direct grants but support in different forms, including route-specific subsidies, cash aid or cost relief. “There is a multitude of ways to help airlines,” IATA SVP member and external relations Sebastian Mikosz said.

The call for more help comes after a July that chief economist Brian Pearce described as “disappointing.” Traffic levels were below what IATA had included in its forecast and there is further “downside risk” in the coming months.

According to IATA, July traffic came in at 79.8% below last year’s level whereas airlines offered 70.1% less capacity. The combination of low traffic and excess capacity led to an all-time-low load factor of 57.9% for the industry. Asia-Pacific had recovered the most to a decline of 72.2% whereas demand in North America was still down 80.6% and 81.3% in Europe.

IATA did notice some significant recovery of a few domestic markets, particularly domestic China, which was 28% below 2019 levels in July and pointed at some encouraging trends in the global economy at large. However, “aviation remains effectively in lockdown,” according to de Juniac, as airlines battle restrictions on international travel. De Juniac criticized government management of travel restrictions as “so uncoordinated and unpredictable that people are not flying.”

The industry body urges governments to implement ICAO guidelines globally, reopen borders and implement an effective system of COVID-19 testing that ensures passengers can feel safe when traveling and limits the re-import of cases to a manageable and very low number.

IATA also urged the EU to suspend the 80/20 slot rule for the upcoming winter season. “Europe underestimates the challenge and is dragging its feet,” de Juniac said.

-posted by Gino Under

[planebored]

I'd be worried if I worked at a vacation charter company. Or Porter.

As for Air Canada with allegedly 7 billion in liquidity (mind you yes, I realize even this will go away quickly) is in a much better position to weather the storm. I'd throw WestJet in there as well give the financial backing of Onex.

I trust Rovinescu will use this as an opportunity to come out swinging and rebound better and faster than any other Canadian airline, and take over more market share.

By the end of this, my *guess* is Porter folds, Sunwing half size fleet or less (with buying seats on Rouge to go south) and Air Transat smaller as well and focusing more on what their original business was... vacation charters.

I could also be completely wrong.

[eeeroger]

I'd be worried if I worked at a vacation charter company. Or Porter.

As for Air Canada with allegedly 7 billion in liquidity (mind you yes, I realize even this will go away quickly) is in a much better position to weather the storm. I'd throw WestJet in there as well give the financial backing of Onex.

I trust Rovinescu will use this as an opportunity to come out swinging and rebound better and faster than any other Canadian airline, and take over more market share.

By the end of this, my *guess* is Porter folds, Sunwing half size fleet or less (with buying seats on Rouge to go south) and Air Transat smaller as well and focusing more on what their original business was... vacation charters.

I could also be completely wrong.

Let’s hope every airline can recover. Again, I do know Porter has money in the bank and is spending next to nothing during the shut down. I can say confidently porter has the liquidity to wait this out. Starting back up at the wrong time is what could be detrimental. So I wouldn’t be too concerned. Also, I’m Not sure why everyone on this forum gets off on speculating with such rigor. Hasn’t this time off allowed anyone to partake in a new hobby? A new business venture? Spending time with the family? This shutdown has been living rent free in all of your heads. It sucks, but let’s stay positive and see what the future holds. For now it’s out of EVERYONES hands.

[Cappo1]

This is no surprise to some of us who have had our eye on what's going on around the globe and with airlines all across the world. We have been cautioned that there will be a second wave in the fall and we have been warned daily on all media sources. This should not be a shock . Maybe reality is setting in. Marching Ottawa is not going to send a memo to CV19 to tell it to bypass Canadian airlines . Example 79,000 cases per day in India . Record increases in Spain to peak pandemic rates. France is exceeding 5,000 cases per day. International airline travel should have stopped the minute it was determined China was not in control of their outbreak, and airlines called the government afoul for even considering imposing flight restrictions worldwide, while dr. Tam repeatedly called for no concern until her cover had been blown : working her second job on behalf of the WHO who was under China's scrutiny since the beginning. Seems the WHO and IATA have been shoulder to shoulder amidst the thick of it all by boasting their so-called HePA filters and encouraging selling every seat on board to maximize profits. so Gilles, why bring all this up now? you've not mentioned the articles listing all the domestic and intl flights with proven contamination on board. this is not new as some reporters have been at the scene in YYz as early as March, asking passengers what safety protocols were implemented by customs upon their arrival. one of our own Fas contracted it while doing service coming back from Frankfurt. this was well known through the industry but you never talked about that. You've failed to mention the Porto flights in which whole crews have been quarantined for two weeks and now suddenly you're raging and then you smack me down for having to drive down from my cottage two days prior to my HKG for the damn test up my nose!, considering me a kid playing Microsoft flight simulator. im not mentioning nazis like you were. I think your rage is caused by knowing AC Is carrying your passengers and the harsh reality that transat may not survive has finally hit you.

Just for your info the main reason why cases are increasing in France is that more people are being tested: this has been officially announced as is by Macron et many epidemiologists. Hospital reanimation rooms are empty at the moment and death rate associated to covid is close to 0.
But if you wanna trust the medias and look like a stupid sheep it’s your choice of course. This is what happen when you have a population with so many non educated people and retards.

Ok Dr. Faucci . I suggest you read the up on IATAs recent grim predictions.

" IATA also urged the EU to suspend the 80/20 slot rule for the upcoming winter season. “Europe underestimates the challenge and is dragging its feet,” de Juniac said."

Stop blaming AC because we are also affected in an exhorbant way. We will not be able to carry the burden of a buy out with hulls and employees. From a legal standing the unpredicted pandemic will allow this deal to dissolve very civilly. Whether Europe approves it or not , it's dead. We have to look after our own pilots and more layoffs are coming.

Do you comprehend that this pandemic is not limited to North America and Air Transat
doesn't have an exempt just becusee it won a few Leisure Airline awards ? That's like having a trophy sitting on the shelf. It serves no purpose.

Please stop using words that mock disabilities. My grandson is special needs and I object to you brandishing retard around in your posts.

[FL320]

This is no surprise to some of us who have had our eye on what's going on around the globe and with airlines all across the world. We have been cautioned that there will be a second wave in the fall and we have been warned daily on all media sources. This should not be a shock . Maybe reality is setting in. Marching Ottawa is not going to send a memo to CV19 to tell it to bypass Canadian airlines . Example 79,000 cases per day in India . Record increases in Spain to peak pandemic rates. France is exceeding 5,000 cases per day. International airline travel should have stopped the minute it was determined China was not in control of their outbreak, and airlines called the government afoul for even considering imposing flight restrictions worldwide, while dr. Tam repeatedly called for no concern until her cover had been blown : working her second job on behalf of the WHO who was under China's scrutiny since the beginning. Seems the WHO and IATA have been shoulder to shoulder amidst the thick of it all by boasting their so-called HePA filters and encouraging selling every seat on board to maximize profits. so Gilles, why bring all this up now? you've not mentioned the articles listing all the domestic and intl flights with proven contamination on board. this is not new as some reporters have been at the scene in YYz as early as March, asking passengers what safety protocols were implemented by customs upon their arrival. one of our own Fas contracted it while doing service coming back from Frankfurt. this was well known through the industry but you never talked about that. You've failed to mention the Porto flights in which whole crews have been quarantined for two weeks and now suddenly you're raging and then you smack me down for having to drive down from my cottage two days prior to my HKG for the damn test up my nose!, considering me a kid playing Microsoft flight simulator. im not mentioning nazis like you were. I think your rage is caused by knowing AC Is carrying your passengers and the harsh reality that transat may not survive has finally hit you.

Just for your info the main reason why cases are increasing in France is that more people are being tested: this has been officially announced as is by Macron et many epidemiologists. Hospital reanimation rooms are empty at the moment and death rate associated to covid is close to 0.
But if you wanna trust the medias and look like a stupid sheep it’s your choice of course. This is what happen when you have a population with so many non educated people and retards.

Ok Dr. Faucci . I suggest you read the up on IATAs recent grim predictions.

" IATA also urged the EU to suspend the 80/20 slot rule for the upcoming winter season. “Europe underestimates the challenge and is dragging its feet,” de Juniac said."

Stop blaming AC because we are also affected in an exhorbant way. We will not be able to carry the burden of a buy out with hulls and employees. From a legal standing the unpredicted pandemic will allow this deal to dissolve very civilly. Whether Europe approves it or not , it's dead. We have to look after our own pilots and more layoffs are coming.

Do you comprehend that this pandemic is not limited to North America and Air Transat
doesn't have an exempt just becusee it won a few Leisure Airline awards ? That's like having a trophy sitting on the shelf. It serves no purpose.

Please stop using words that mock disabilities. My grandson is special needs and I object to you brandishing retard around in your posts.

I have no idea why you keep talking about Air Transat and the deal here and I don’t understand your anger toward AT (you got a PFO I guess ?). Plus the fact that what you’re saying have absolutely no sense.

[Air.Field]

WORDS

depositphotos_4727971-stock-photo-snowflake-cartoon-character.jpg (16.99 KiB) Viewed 1848 times

[Cappo1]

[/quote]

I have no idea why you keep talking about Air Transat and the deal here and I don’t understand your anger toward AT (you got a PFO I guess ?). Plus the fact that what you’re saying have absolutely no sense.
[/quote]

Let me clarify it to you FL320. We call you Let's Make A Deal because for months you have been consistent posting about the " deal" . Your are not even a pilot but you get points for being enthusiastic. You should take some grammar lessons while you are laid off from the back end .