Flair Summer Expansion

[aeromortgage]

This country (based on population and geography) couldn’t sustain 2 carriers, as evidenced by the shotgun wedding of Air Canada and Canadian. I personally doubt Canada can again sustain two sizeable carriers based on the actual airline history of the last 46 years. WestJet has abandoned the LCC model and is morphing into some version of CP Air/Canadian. Historically a dangerous path if history taught us anything? Lower airfares, especially even lower airfares won’t provide a sustainable yield for any airline which could mean bad news for some carriers, including any other new entrant.

This aspect has changed somewhat too. The population in Canada is 38m vs. 22m in 1974. A larger percentage of that 38m has enough disposable income and has grown accustomed to flying than in 1974. Totally hypothetical numbers not based in reality, but just for example purposes, let's say 50% of Canadian fly once per year now compared to 20% in 1974, your customer base is now 19m vs. 4.4m. This doesn't even consider increased frequency of flights. I would guess but can't prove that airlines have become more streamlined than they were in the past, which is in fact the point of a ULCC - even in the face of stronger competition than ever. Any business venture has risk, especially an airline but sometimes an idea has it's time. I don't disagree with anything that you write, except with perhaps your degree of certainty.

[aeromortgage]

double post

[FurHat]

Gino,

I replied because I thought you were suggesting that flying had become more expensive since deregulation, but it seems you agree that it has not.

I do agree that Canada is a terrible business environment for Airlines.

[boeingboy]

I agree with Gino 100%, and I stand by my statement that this country cannot make a ULCC work.

I do however - wish the Flair crew good luck in their venture and invite them to prove me wrong. I will happily eat my words and buy them the first round at the next layover.

[flying4dollars]

I agree with Gino 100%, and I stand by my statement that this country cannot make a ULCC work.

I do however - wish the Flair crew good luck in their venture and invite them to prove me wrong. I will happily eat my words and buy them the first round at the next layover.

Sadly, I won't be able to collect. Overnights will soon be a thing of the past . It will be all turns.

But if you're ever in YVR, I'm happy to grab a beer for no reason at all

[tbaylx]

I agree with Gino 100%, and I stand by my statement that this country cannot make a ULCC work.

I do however - wish the Flair crew good luck in their venture and invite them to prove me wrong. I will happily eat my words and buy them the first round at the next layover.

Sadly, I won't be able to collect. Overnights will soon be a thing of the past . It will be all turns.

But if you're ever in YVR, I'm happy to grab a beer for no reason at all

The new duty regs make that impossible on some routes. There will be fewer overnights but still going to have to have some once the max starts stretching its legs a bit.

[Gino Under]

aeromortgage, FurHat

Thanks for the great discussion. It's important to share opinions.
I obviously didn't make myself clear by unintentional omission and have no illusions that my opinion is merely that, an opinion.
I should simply have added this to my earlier comments.
I have no ill will toward anyone gutsy enough to start an airline in Canada today, even with the history of the last 50 years. I think it's great. However, there's nothing profound in what I'm eluding to, which is while things haven't changed all that much in Canada, I think its safe to say that the survival risk facing these existing and start up airlines is far greater than its ever been at anytime in the past 50 years.
Hopefully, Flair will thrive. History tells us a different story.
We'll see.
The same for others counting their last few dollars without government support, which may be too late anyway, if they have to wait much longer.

Gino

[dhc#]

The updated paint scheme for Flair as seen in the article below...is kinda growing on me.

https://worldairlinenews.com/category/flair-airlines/

[theflyingmoose]

Yes, there is a way to make the ULCC/LCC/whatever CC nomenclature you want to assign, work. Flair is resolving to make that come to fruition. So far, it doesn't look like they are failing as all the pundits predicted within their first 1 or 2 years of inception in the airline side of the biz. Don't take my word for it. There's a reason one of our primary investors went out and acquired a number of brand new MAX jets to lease to us. They wouldn't do it if they saw something that wasn't working, or something they didn't like. There seems to be a lot of optimism around here and it's not fuelled by sunshine and rainbows

Having an inside view must be nice I'm no expert either, but I agree that 777 Partners clearly understands the potential in order to lease 13 MAXs to you guys (also the MAX must've been available at very nice rates). I think the most promising signs for Flair are:

1. The true ULCC model hasn't been properly tried in Canada before
2. Flair isn't an airline-in-airline like Swoop (some good reading here and here)
3. There are supposedly enough people (10 million Canadians) that would fly a ULCC regularly
4. COVID has weakened AC/WJ's ability to undercut/fight Flair in price wars like they did with JetsGo or CanJet

I expand on all of these points here: https://theflyingmoose.net/what-flair-a ... ing-right/ - give it a read if you're interested! They convince me that, at the very least, Flair isn't an imminent bankruptcy just burning through cash every day. My view is from the outside, however, so I'm curious if you feel that these reasons really get the situation.

[fish4life]

Every airline in Canada could be a ULCC if we removed AIF and Navcan fees. Unfortunately our government keeps viewing the industry as a cash cow and round trip AIF’s alone are approaching $100 making it difficult for any airline to be a true ULCC. The other issue in Canada is the lack of secondary airports to take advantage of furthering the monopoly of the primary airports in cities.

All that said I wish Flair the best because one less airline means more pilots on the street.

[theflyingmoose]

Every airline in Canada could be a ULCC if we removed AIF and Navcan fees. Unfortunately our government keeps viewing the industry as a cash cow and round trip AIF’s alone are approaching $100 making it difficult for any airline to be a true ULCC. The other issue in Canada is the lack of secondary airports to take advantage of furthering the monopoly of the primary airports in cities.

All that said I wish Flair the best because one less airline means more pilots on the street.

Fair enough - the hope probably isn't to reach Spirit- or Ryanair-level costs, but enough to have a significant ticket price gap relative to AC/WJ.

[flying4dollars]

Yes, there is a way to make the ULCC/LCC/whatever CC nomenclature you want to assign, work. Flair is resolving to make that come to fruition. So far, it doesn't look like they are failing as all the pundits predicted within their first 1 or 2 years of inception in the airline side of the biz. Don't take my word for it. There's a reason one of our primary investors went out and acquired a number of brand new MAX jets to lease to us. They wouldn't do it if they saw something that wasn't working, or something they didn't like. There seems to be a lot of optimism around here and it's not fuelled by sunshine and rainbows

Having an inside view must be nice I'm no expert either, but I agree that 777 Partners clearly understands the potential in order to lease 13 MAXs to you guys (also the MAX must've been available at very nice rates). I think the most promising signs for Flair are:

1. The true ULCC model hasn't been properly tried in Canada before
2. Flair isn't an airline-in-airline like Swoop (some good reading here and here)
3. There are supposedly enough people (10 million Canadians) that would fly a ULCC regularly
4. COVID has weakened AC/WJ's ability to undercut/fight Flair in price wars like they did with JetsGo or CanJet

I expand on all of these points here: https://theflyingmoose.net/what-flair-a ... ing-right/ - give it a read if you're interested! They convince me that, at the very least, Flair isn't an imminent bankruptcy just burning through cash every day. My view is from the outside, however, so I'm curious if you feel that these reasons really get the situation.

Pretty good write up. I appreciated that you referenced empirical data to substantiate some of your content. One other thing to credit pandemic survival is that Flair is extremely flexible because we only have 3 aircraft right now and a very flexible workforce and shareholders. Everyone has pitched in here to keep the lights on and the company is able to adapt to the constant changes in this pandemic environment. There's a very real possibility that this pandemic will actually have cemented us in this country when it's all said and done for many reasons such as - aircraft lease rates, gate and airport slots, contract procurement etc.

Yeah I'm biased, but the optimism here is palpable. We see it in the actions of management, shareholders and the public (future bookings are driving this expansion). It's not solely based on 'a blind feeling'.

[simply_no_one]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

[rooster]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

Yeah? Aren't they burning what, $15M+ a day? Don't think they can afford to burn more to push anyone out. Why didn't they force WJ out of business in 95? Bruh, aren't they like, Canada's second largest airline now?

[47north]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

Yeah? Aren't they burning what, $15M+ a day? Don't think they can afford to burn more to push anyone out. Why didn't they force WJ out of business in 95? Bruh, aren't they like, Canada's second largest airline now?

Flair may succeed with some on this expansion, but if you don’t think that AC/Rouge and WS/Swoop won’t make it difficult for them, then you are mistaken.

[rooster]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

Yeah? Aren't they burning what, $15M+ a day? Don't think they can afford to burn more to push anyone out. Why didn't they force WJ out of business in 95? Bruh, aren't they like, Canada's second largest airline now?

Flair may succeed with some on this expansion, but if you don’t think that AC/Rouge and WS/Swoop won’t make it difficult for them, then you are mistaken.

I never said they won't make it difficult. They already have. See WJ's creation of Swoop with direct competition to Flair. Have they folded yet? Nope. I wrote them off a couple of years ago too but there's NO WAY they are in a position to grow during a pandemic if they were in financial despair. Maybe it's time we all just accept that a 3rd carrier is born. Nothing wrong with that IMO. Good for them. It's good for aviation in Canada. They get my support!!

[Tolip]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

They already are, just tried to book a flight for end of may with flair/swoop vs ac/westjet. And strangely enough after you add all the add ons with flair/swoop (things youd have to have) it's actually more expensive. Go figure. I can book yyz to yvr on westjet/AC for 242 round trip, flair for 370 (which includes like nothing) and swoop for 450 ( with a carry on bag). Strange times, wont be easy for flair to compete in this environment

[rooster]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

They already are, just tried to book a flight for end of may with flair/swoop vs ac/westjet. And strangely enough after you add all the add ons with flair/swoop (things youd have to have) it's actually more expensive. Go figure. I can book yyz to yvr on westjet/AC for 242 round trip, flair for 370 (which includes like nothing) and swoop for 450 ( with a carry on bag). Strange times, wont be easy for flair to compete in this environment

Interesting, I just checked and Swoop is $176, but out of YXX. Flair is $193 round trip and AC is $234 round trip for the same dates at the end of May out of YVR. You have to pay for a checked bag with both carriers. Doesn't really seem like you get much more with AC than Flair as you claim and I'm not sure how you got $370.

[Yycjetdriver]

Yeah? Aren't they burning what, $15M+ a day? Don't think they can afford to burn more to push anyone out. Why didn't they force WJ out of business in 95? Bruh, aren't they like, Canada's second largest airline now?

Flair may succeed with some on this expansion, but if you don’t think that AC/Rouge and WS/Swoop won’t make it difficult for them, then you are mistaken.

I never said they won't make it difficult. They already have. See WJ's creation of Swoop with direct competition to Flair. Have they folded yet? Nope. I wrote them off a couple of years ago too but there's NO WAY they are in a position to grow during a pandemic if they were in financial despair. Maybe it's time we all just accept that a 3rd carrier is born. Nothing wrong with that IMO. Good for them. It's good for aviation in Canada. They get my support!!

Westjet did not create Swoop in retaliation to Flair. It would have been much easier for them to just under cut flair using their recognized/established brand.

[Tolip]

Until AC undercuts every route you have to force you out of business.

It's the Canadian monopoly way ... See; telecom

They already are, just tried to book a flight for end of may with flair/swoop vs ac/westjet. And strangely enough after you add all the add ons with flair/swoop (things youd have to have) it's actually more expensive. Go figure. I can book yyz to yvr on westjet/AC for 242 round trip, flair for 370 (which includes like nothing) and swoop for 450 ( with a carry on bag). Strange times, wont be easy for flair to compete in this environment

Interesting, I just checked and Swoop is $176, but out of YXX. Flair is $193 round trip and AC is $234 round trip for the same dates at the end of May out of YVR. You have to pay for a checked bag with both carriers. Doesn't really seem like you get much more with AC than Flair as you claim and I'm not sure how you got $370.

You cant look at the advertised price. That's how they trick you, flair charges like 170 for even a carry on bag or checked bag (same price, and you would have to have atleast 1) so the price very quickly gets up there. If you actually book a reservation, you'll see. Same goes for swoop. Dont be fooled. Where as with WJ/AC all that is included (atleast the carry on bag) so you can get away with the advertised price of 242.